Stock Market Today: September 6th - 10th, 2021

S&P 5%+ Rallies and Declines
Wed, Sep 8, 2021

We've heard a lot lately about the steadiness of the S&P 500's rally over the last year. And steady it has been. As shown below, it has now been 307 calendar days since the S&P 500's last 5%+ pullback. Over this time period, the index has rallied 38.75%.



While 307 days without a 5%+ drop may seem like a long time, we actually just experienced a streak that was nearly twice as long from mid-2016 through early 2018. As shown below, that streak from 6/27/16 through 1/26/18 lasted 578 calendar days and saw the S&P gain 43.6%.

There have been three other streaks of 500+ days without a 5%+ decline in the S&P's history. The longest streak lasted 593 days from December 1957 through August 1959. During that time period, the S&P rallied 54.16%. The other two 500+ day streaks ran from November 1963 to May 1965 (538 days) and December 1994 to May 1996 (533 days).

The current streak of 307 days without a 5%+ pullback ranks as the 13th longest on record. It has been a good run, but it's certainly not unprecedented either.

 

Whelp, ended up closing my spuz short trade @ 4502.50 (esu21 contract) captured -40 handles of the downside move from Friday.

Not nearly the bang I was looking for tho....but will look to re-enter on a bounce as I still firmly believe there is a helluva lot more downside potential than upside from here imo. But ofc nothing goes in straight lines amirite.

Plus this little dippage we’ve had off the post nfp’s has been a bit half hearted thus far to say the least I feel. Pretty piss poor attempt for a pullback that’s not even a full -1% off the ATHs still.

Still thinking we’ll go down to tag at least the daily 50sma on the cash SPX at around 4420ish I believe. Will then reassess from there. Anyway, nearly captured 10k on this trade. Not a terrible way to kickoff my return to trading and monitoring the markets world post summer hiatus haha. Will take it. It’s good to be back in the saddle again after so long. Looking forward to getting more active on the trade front again I’ve missed it.

Anyway, onto the next!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 2 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, September the 9th, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/9/21 - Four in a Row?
Thu, Sep 9, 2021

It's not often that you see the S&P 500 on pace for its fourth straight down day and it's still within 0.6% of an all-time high, but it's been a rather listless market in the days straddling the Labor Day weekend. The economic calendar is light again today with Jobless Claims the only report on the calendar. While the earnings calendar is light today, we're currently in a relatively busy time of year when it comes to investor conferences, so there's always the chance that a company drops a surprise at one of these conferences. Today, some of the more notable conferences are the Morgan Stanley Health Care Conference, Barclays Energy Conference, and the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference. In Europe, the ECB just announced its latest policy decision, and while rates were left unchanged, the central bank did take a moderately hawkish tone at the margin by announcing that it would conduct bond market purchases at a 'moderately lower pace' than recent activity.

In economic news, both initial and continuing jobless claims came in at post-COVID lows.

One notable trend in this morning's corporate announcements comes from the airline sector as not one, not two, and not three, but four different airlines have hit the tape this morning to lower Q3 guidance citing weakness related to the uptick in COVID cases (actually make that five as Delta just recently hit the tape as well). As one might expect after a company lowers guidance, all four stocks are trading moderately lower on the news. While the airline companies are just announcing the news of softer demand and a higher rate of cancellations, their stocks have been telling us this for months. Take a look at the charts below. All four have been in steady downtrends all summer.

 

lol, i thought i had made a bonehead move this AM not even realizing that the ecb had an announcement this AM. had re-entered short the eminis from 4493 on the dec. contract (which rolled from the sept contract today) pre-ecb announcement. because my intuition was that the market was going to possibly make a run for a rest of the overnight lows, as usually is a dalton-ism, the market typically doesn't makes its high/low for the day in the ETH (extended trading hours) session. whether the move would happen today, tomorrow, whatever the case may be.

then sure enough the ecb had its thing, and we saw what happened with our markets right after. pretty much ripped higher off the cash open. i had to head off to see a friend in the hospital. but just came back a short while thinking my stop was gonna hit with a loser trade. then saw we got the spike down just a bit ago, which ngl, had me grinning from ear to ear as i knew this morning's pop was all on nothing but fluff haha.

out at 4482 capturing another -11 handles on the downside



i still feel like the overnight lows need to get tested here...and don't think we're anywhere near the bottom of this move. but, nothing goes in straight lines. onto the next.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, September 9th, 2021.

 

Haha, thanks for this @stock1234! Really greatly appreciate that.

I know I hardly ever share my actual trades, maybe never did before. But, felt like after coming back from summer break I would be a bit more transparent in that aspect. To be honest, I've been very absent for the past few months. Have only really been monitoring on occasion. But, post-summer has given me a nice refresh on my mind if you will. We'll see how it goes. Hope you are having a pretty good week! Really good to be back in the saddle again after soooo long. Albeit, yes I've been around to post and update on the threads. But, hardly was actually looking at the market until now.

 

Interesting! I'll have to see the last time we did a 4 for 4 on the downside on a short week due to a holiday on Monday, and see what the proceeding days/weeks did following that. Would be a kind of an interesting historical stat to see. Friday's used to be a pretty regular red day before COVID, but think this year it's been green more than it's been red. We'll see how tomorrow shakes out!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 4 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, September the 10th, 2021!

 

Have closed out my remaining emini spuz shorts earlier today to net me at $15k profit since last friday's nfp print. I know that may not seem like much at all for some of y'all's in here (it's really not). But, truth be told here, I'm not much for the yolos myself. For those that are and are really good at it, knock yourself out haha. But, at my age now (which at 38 feels more like 78 in trading/investing years if you will lmao), I don't really care for those big home run winners. A few grand here and there is perfectly fine with me, so long as it's incrementally going in the right direction.

I'm not afraid to admit this, but I don't day trade anymore like I used to back in my earlier years (2006-2015). Back in those years I was verry active. Nowadays, it's just finding good higher probability opportunities (and am only strictly trading futures nowadays as admittedly I'm totally hands off of equities), and NOT just putting on trades just for the hell of it either. Cause not gonna lie, I've seen so many people during my years (not anyone from this chat tho) that like to put on trades simply because they have nothing better to do in their spare time or whatever. Where they put basically zero DD into it, and work on hopes and prayers for good things to come of it. That to me can often lead to such bad trades. I would NEVER put on a trade into something without putting some fucking effort and doing some good DD into it first at the very least, and not going totally blindly into something, or doing so because someone suggested, or something you heard, etc. Like for example my eminis shorts this past week -- which I didn't just put on simply because "my gut told me to". Nope. I did actually provide some data and charts to back up my sentiments here, which finally seems to be materializing a bit this month. Hence why I put my mullah where my mouth was, in the spuz short trades the past week, and not just constantly piping it up lol. Actions speak louder than words imo anyway.

Been in this in gig since about 2005, and have learned a ton over those years. One of the things I always try to apply in my own personal trading is having good risk management. What I mean by that is just having a game plan before going into something. Which for me is doing my own due diligence which is really super important to me. Know your risk tolerance, and if a trade doesn't go your way, know when to get out when you're wrong. Because ultimately the only worse than being wrong is staying wrong. Don't let a loser turn into a bigly time loser. It's your hard earned capital after all. Seen it sooooooo many times from people I've run into in my years being on communities (forums/reddit/discord/etc), where they for whatever reason neglect this. Hence, become "bag holders" where they are left with a loser trade, and praying to make it back, sometimes in revenge trading that can lead to even more disastrous results...

Anyway, not here to lecture ofc that's not my thang. Just sharing my own personal pov. And, that it's not all on hopes and dreams. But, doing actual DD and sharing that to back up my thoughts, like have been saying the market needing a pause/pullback from the recent rippage to ATHs seemingly everyday. Albeit, we're not even 1 full percent off for the week in the SPX here as of right now. So, needless to say, this pullback is still very much innocent until proven guilty if you will.

This post is getting a bit lengthy, and considering that I'm doing all of this typing from a mobile device is pretty f'n ridiculous. But, anyway, I'm away from the house atm, and had a little free time to myself to hop on the boards here. Will just leave it off with an actual quick example of the thought process for me getting into the spuz short (at least from yesterday).

Not sure how many of you are familiar with Jim Dalton and market profile? He's been brought up quite a lot from Peter and others on ShadowTrader. Basically one of the things that stands out to me is when an overnight high/low is made during the ETH (extended trading hours) doesn't often mark the end of a move. Like when /es futures traded down to I think it was 4477 or something on the dec. (ESZ21) contract. There are lots more other factors too ofc, but this is just one I'm pointing out here. So, even though we had that binary event yesterday morning in the ECB announcement that ripped futures higher all the way to like 4520 I think it was. That to me totally looked like the market was getting long in the hole if you will. Hence my "fluff" comment on that I think in here yesterday. :stuck_out_tongue: Sure enough, we had the spike move down midday yesterday, which admittedly had me grinning from ear to ear, because I really felt confident the move up was false. Which turns out it was. Not always does this work ofc, but more times than than not.

Actually, one of the reasons why I think the market top isn't quite in yet is also on the flip side, where the /es futures made an overnight high during the ETH session last Friday as well I think it was? The market never went back to test that during the RTH (regular trading hours) which tells me that'll need to get tested again at some point.

Anyway, now I'm just writing way too much here (par for the course for me ofc lmao), as there's really a whole lotta other good shit if y'all's ever have time to read into the market profile stuff. Perhaps if I have more time in the future I could share some of the stuff I've learned with that over the years.

I'll close this essay length post off here by saying this. While my trades aren't netting me huge gainz like some of y'all's. I just don't really care for those big grand slam homeruns this point in my life like some. And for me, having a relatively higher win-rate (which I don't mean to come across as this chest thumper or anything -- but did put on 3 spuz short trades since last Friday which were all, knock on wood, winners. 3 for 3). And outside of this past week, I haven't put on ANY trades at all, aside from my long term yellow (gold) hold, and ROKU which I rode up for a time after an earnings report a few months back, as well as an oil name at the very beginning of this year (XOM) which were all very profitable. For the exception of my yellow (which yes, has been a loser to this point still) my frequency of trades has been extremely thin. I really don't put on much trades at all nowadays lol. So the win-rate is higher ofc in that aspect. Since there's been so few trades I've put on.

Alright, I'm finished now! Sorry for this huge wall of text in this channel. I know how some folks really hate these walls of text type messages so for that I do greatly apologize in advance.

I do genuinely appreciate any of you who did actually take the time to read all of this from the start tho. Means a lot to me like y'all's have no idea.

BTW, I probably won't be sharing my trades in the server after today, unless folks are fine with that. But, really don't want appear as like an obnoxious person. To be honest, I've never actually shared my trades and market thoughts at such detail until recently. I've always been one to keep things private personally. But, I guess I start coming out of my shell on communities I start feeling comfortable in (which kudos to this community I do!). Thanks for all y'all's do here to keep this place awesome!! Really cannot say this enough times. Y'all's rock.

Have a great weekend everyone! And hope everyone's summer was stupendous.

EDIT: whoops forgot to upload ss but here it is (ignore the "ytd" it's actually really from the past 7 days since the only trades i've put on in this one is from last friday up to today).