Stock Market Today: September 6th - 10th, 2021

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of September 6th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:



Major Futures Markets on Friday:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Labor Day holiday

• Tuesday

Earnings: Coupa Software, Casey’s General Store

10:00 a.m. Quarterly Financial Report

• Wednesday

Earnings: Korn Ferry, Lululemon Athletica, GameStop, AeroVironment

7:00 a.m. Weekly mortgage applications

10:00 a.m. JOLTS

1:10 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams

2:00 p.m. Fed’s Beige book

6:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan town hall

• Thursday

Earnings: Hovnanian Enterprises, American Outdoor Brands, Sumo Logic, Zscaler, Verint Systems, Dave & Buster’s

8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

10:00 a.m. Q2 Quarterly services

11:05 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

2:00 p.m. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

• Friday

Earnings: Kroger

8:30 a.m. PPI

10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

 

'Losing Faith'? - Cryptos & Commodities Rally As Dollar Dumps On Dismal Data, Afghan Angst
An ugly week for 'hard' and 'soft' data sent the US economic surprise data to its worst velocity since the plunge in March 2020...



Source: Bloomberg



Crypto markets also surged this week as traders sought alternatives to the dollar...



Source: Bloomberg

Sending the dollar down to one-month lows, sliding for the 9th of the last 10 days...



Source: Bloomberg

But stocks were mixed with momo-chasers and gamma-hammers always willing to buy any dip. Nasdaq was the week's outperformer. The Dow lagged the rest of the majors to end the week unchanged...



So stocks are at record highs screaming "all is well" as the dollar, gold, and cryptos all scream "something's up"...


Value stocks went nowhere as growth dominated (but mostly thanks to Monday's opening squeeze)...



Source: Bloomberg

An odd week sector-wise with Utes outperforming and Energy & Financials lagging



Source: Bloomberg

Which fits with the dramatic surge in "Defensive" stocks this week with Cyclicals going nowhere...



Source: Bloomberg

VIX trod water on the week, trading in a range between 16 and 17 most of the time...



Treasuries were mixed on the week with the long-end marginally higher in yield and shorter-end marginally lower...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were wild today but a look at the 10Y Yield chart explains some of the movement as the kneejerk lower on the jobs data ran the stops at the low yield of the week and the strong earnings growth sparked a rip higher to run the stops at the high yield of the week...and with the stops run, the liquidty providers left the building for the long weekend...



Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum was the week's big winner in crypto-land, topping $4000 for the first time since mid-May...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin also had a big week and rose back above $50,000...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied on the week, thanks to gains on Thursday largely, with WTI back above $70 intraday but ending back below...



Finally, as we all look forward to a long weekend of socializing, mobility in the US has begun to trend downward again in reaction to the rise in Covid cases -- a trend that is likely weighing on Service-sector confidence as we saw in the decline in the Non-manufacturing ISM index today.



And what happens next in markets? There have been 10 other years in which the S&P 500's gain through August surpassed 20%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The final four months of those years brought everything from a 21% advance to a 32% decline. All this left the S&P 500 with an average loss for the September-December period of 2.1% -- and a median gain of 2.2%.



Trade accordingly.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2021-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Weakness Day After Labor Day & Sell Rosh Hashanah

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.04% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last nine years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last four years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.33%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 47.6% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. NASDAQ has a better record up 52.4% of the time on Wednesday, but a smaller average gain of 0.14%.

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.

The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.

Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 98 Stock Trader’s Almanac 2021). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.

Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 64% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 7.0%. This past year DJIA gained 19.9% from Yom Kippur 2020 to Passover 2021.

This year the high holidays arrive early on Labor Day eve, September 6, and end Thursday September 16 with Yom Kippur at mid-month one of the strongest days September. But with the market in full rally mode on easy Federal Reserve money and free Federal Government fiscal stimulus month selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays could trigger a mild correction of 5% or so. The end of September after Triple Witching is notoriously the weakest part of the month, so it may be more prudent to “buy” later in the month.


Here Comes the Worst Month of the Year
Tuesday, August 31, 2021

The incredible bull market continues, with the S&P 500 Index up to a record 53 new all-time highs before August is over, topping the previous record from 1964.



“Although this bull market has laughed at nearly all the worry signs in 2021, let’s not forget that September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Even last year, in the face of a huge rally off the March 2020 lows, we saw a nearly 10% correction in the middle of September.



The S&P 500 hasn’t had so much as a 5% correction since last October and with stocks up more than 100% since March 2020, investors should be open to some potential seasonal weakness. The good news is we remain in the camp that stocks will continue to go higher and investors should use any weakness as an opportunity to add to core equity holdings.

Let’s be honest, stocks can’t go up forever. In fact, the S&P 500 is about to be up 7 months in a row, one of the longest monthly win streaks ever.



It is what happens next that has our attention. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, after 7-month win streaks, the S&P 500 has been higher six months later 13 out of 14 times, with a very impressive 7.8% average return. This reinforces our belief that in the event of a well-deserved pullback, it would be an opportunity to buy at cheaper prices.



With a very highly anticipated Federal Reserve Bank meeting in September, along with continued Delta variant worries, coupled with the fact that stocks haven’t pulled back in a long time, investors should be on the lookout for some seasonal volatility in September. We remain in the camp that any weakness, should it occur, could be short-term and likely be contained in the 5-8% range. This bull market is alive and well and we would view any potential weakness as an opportunity.

August Payrolls Disappoint
Friday, September 3, 2021

It seems to be two steps forward, one step back for the U.S. labor market.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August employment report this morning, revealing that the domestic economy added a disappointing 235,000 jobs during the month, falling well short of Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ median forecast for a gain of 733,000. This comes on the heels of a strong July during which payrolls climbed by an upwardly revised 1.053 million jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in August, in line with expectations, and was paired with an unchanged labor force participation rate, which stayed at 61.7%.

“The Delta variant surge is the unsurprising story behind August’s big payroll miss,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Leisure and hospitality jobs, a proxy for economic reopening, were flat month over month. The good news is that we see promising signs Delta’s effect will wane in coming months and payrolls will resume growing at a fast clip.”

As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, we remain 5.3 million payrolls shy of February 2020’s peak.



The other key takeaway from this report is wage pressures are building. Average hourly earnings came in hotter than expected, an increasingly common occurrence, posting a 0.6% month-over-month gain versus expectations for 0.3%, and a 4.3% gain year over year versus expectations for 3.9%. Wages have important implications in the inflation debate, as they and rents are considered to be among the “stickier” components of inflation. Today’s report is likely to bolster those in the camp asserting inflation will be less transitory than the Federal Reserve (Fed) thinks, though it should be noted that the lack of employment growth in lower wage in-person sectors likely contributed to the higher wage numbers.

Looking ahead, we continue to believe there is reason to expect a strong jobs rebound in coming months. Schools closed for the summer, potential disincentives from enhanced unemployment benefits, and the troublesome Delta variant have all acted as speed limits on the pace of employment growth recently. August’s report, though, figures to be the last where all of these factors remain in full force. Enhanced unemployment benefits are set to expire on Labor Day (ironically), meaning their effects will only be present for part of the September report’s observation window, and will be fully gone by the October report. Schools and daycare facilities, meanwhile, are beginning to reopen, freeing up parents to rejoin the labor force. And, most importantly, we are seeing promising signs that the worst of the latest flare-up in COVID-19 cases may be behind us.

Zooming out, this job report has the potential to delay the Fed’s tapering timeline. Fed Chair Powell has made it clear that the labor market will serve as his tell regarding when to begin tapering asset purchases. With today’s big payroll miss, it is clear the labor market is under some near term pressure, and while these pressures are likely to dissipate the Fed will probably err on the side of caution to avoid acting prematurely. The next month is sure to be an interesting one for Fed-watchers.

Bullish Sentiment Finally Rises in Back to Back Weeks
Thu, Sep 2, 2021

The S&P 500 has continued to press higher resulting in a coincident rise in sentiment. The AAII's weekly reading on bullish sentiment rose back above 40% for the first time since the week of July 8th. While 43.4% is not a particularly elevated reading on sentiment (72nd percentile of all periods), the move higher is particularly notable in that it was the first time bullish sentiment has risen in back-to-back weeks since February. That is especially surprising given the fact that bullish sentiment was very elevated at points between now and then, such as back in the spring when it eclipsed 50%. That is also a historically long stretch of time without back-to-back increases in bullish sentiment. As shown in the second chart below, at just over half of a year-long, the only two similar streaks on record were in 1995 and from 1997 to 1998.





Negative sentiment has broadly picked up over the past couple of months. In the AAII survey, bearish sentiment was slightly higher at 33.3% versus 33% last week. While below the peak from only a couple of weeks ago, that is still elevated versus readings from earlier this year.



Similarly, the Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter writers has also seen bearish sentiment on the rise throughout the summer. This week, it topped 20% for the first time since March 10th. At 21.3%, bearish sentiment in this survey is at the highest level since last October. With that said, the current reading is also well below the 20 year average of 24.19%.



As a result of the larger gains to bullish versus bearish sentiment, optimism remains the favored response in the AAII survey. The bull-bear spread rose back into positive double digits this week for the first time since the last week of July.



Given both bullish and bearish sentiments were higher, neutral sentiment has continued to unwind. That reading fell 4.3 percentage points this week to a new low of 23.2%. That was the fourth decline in the past five weeks as neutral sentiment came in at the lowest level since mid-April.



Emerging Markets Leave China Behind
Tue, Aug 31, 2021

In last night's Closer, we noted the record underperformance of Chinese equities relative to the US over the past six months. As a result of the weakness in Chinese equities, the MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM)—which has roughly a 37% weight in Hong Kong and Chinese stocks—is well off of its highs and has been trending lower over the past several months. Today, EEM is up a healthy 1.37%, but that brings it just short of its 50-DMA which recently fell below its 200-DMA. That is also at similar levels to the lower high from the start of this month.



When factoring out China, emerging markets look much better. Again, the MSCI Emerging Market ETF that excludes China (EMXC) is currently 1.13% below its 52-week high, but the downtrend that has been in place since the early June highs has been on the ropes over the past couple of sessions. Yesterday saw the ETF trade and close right at that downtrend line, but the 1.15% gain today has smashed through it. That leaves EMXC at the highest level since June 15th. The ETF is also at some of the most overbought levels (1.8 standard deviations from its 50-DMA) since then.



Pivoting over to bonds, looking at the Fixed Income screen of our Trend Analyzer, the best performer over the past five days is also in the EM space. The USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) had been mostly flat throughout the summer trending right alongside its sideways 50- and 200-DMAs. Significant gains last Friday and yesterday led EMB to break out of that range as it reaches some of the highest levels since February today.



As previously mentioned, EMB has not ventured far from its 50-DMA recently. In fact, the rolling 50-day standard deviation has been right around some of the lowest levels on record since EMB began trading in 2008. Given that lack of volatility, the rip higher this week has resulted in the ETF moving well beyond the upper end of its narrow trading range. In fact, yesterday the ETF closed over 3 standard deviations above its 50-DMA. That joins only 14 other days where the ETF closed at least 3 standard deviations above its 50-DMA with the most recent of those back in June 2019 when it reached as high as 4 standard deviations above its moving average.

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 9.3.21-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 9.3.21-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for September 3rd, 2021
Video from Alphatrends


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.5.21
Video from ShadowTrader

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 9.6.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.6.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.7.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 9.7.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.8.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.8.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 9.9.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 9.9.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.10.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.10.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/6-9/10) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this week!

• Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Tuesday (9/7) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for Tuesday!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($GME $LULU $ASO $COUP $RH $AFRM $AFMD $ZS $PATH $KR $CNTG $CASY $LOVE $KFY $PLAY $GENI $REVG $CPRT $SMAR $DADA $CMCM $JG $CTK $ABM $BIOX $S $ZUMZ $AVAV $HQY $CDMO $DSGX $AOUT $CVGW $AMRK $VRNT $FARM $DLNG $BBCP $MLNK $RXST $SUMO)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 6th, 2021 <-- click there to view!

 

Since I'm running very short on time, here is just a very simple analysis going into next week and for this month of September. But, I would think it would be pretty doggone healthy to see a counter trend move in the SPX that goes and tags the 50dma again, and bounce from there like it has basically all year long. Hence my bear sentiment recently, and Spuz short I put on this AM, plus with the season weaknes and volatility around this time of the year, etc. We'll see.



Remember that the markets here stateside will be closed all day on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. However, globex equity futures has an abbreviated session. Opening at their normal Sunday 6pm eastern time, then halting at 1pm eastern time on Monday afternoon, before resuming for normal trading hours at 6pm eastern time on Monday evening.

Have yourselves all a wonderful 3-day weekend!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the first trading day of the new week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 4 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, September the 7th, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/7/21 - Back to Work
Tue, Sep 7, 2021

Welcome back. While the weather outside may suggest otherwise, the unofficial end to summer has come and gone, football season is ready to kick off, pumpkin-flavored coffee, beer, and bread is everywhere you look, and before you know it, the leaves will start turning. Equity markets are heading into the fall season with more green than red, but treasuries are lower and yields are higher heading into what will be a quiet day in terms of data to kick off the holiday-shortened week.

With the unofficial end to summer behind us, we wanted to provide a quick summary of how the S&P 500 has historically performed the day after Labor Day (we covered other post-Labor Day performances in today's Morning Lineup). In the post-financial crisis period since 2010, there has clearly been a Labor Day hangover with the S&P 500 trading lower nearly three-quarters of the time for a median decline of 0.17%, including declines on this day in each of the last four years. From a longer-term vantage point since 1945, the day after Labor Day hasn't been as negative with a median gain of 0.15% and positive returns 53% of the time. Lastly, with the S&P 500 up just over 20% already this year, we also looked at years where the S&P 500 was up at least 15% YTD heading into Labor Day weekend, and in these scenarios, returns were more positive. In the 16 prior years, the day after Labor Day had a median gain of 0.26% with positive returns half of the time.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, September 7th, 2021.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 3 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, September the 8th, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/8/21 - Mixed Market
Wed, Sep 8, 2021

Labor Day is supposed to mark the unofficial end to summer and the time when people return to work from Summer vacations, but the second trading day of the holiday-shortened week is looking like another quiet one. Futures are indicated lower following a weak session in Europe, but here in the US, the only economic report on the calendar today is the JOLTS report, which is expected to show slightly more than 10 million job openings. In earnings news, the only reports of note are Lululemon (LULU), RH, and Gamestop (GME).

After Tuesday's mixed start to the week, the technical picture for the major US indices remains mixed.

In the small-cap space, the Russell 2000 remains stuck in its range. After bouncing for a fourth time right around the $210 level, IWM has taken a pause in the last few days as it tries to digest its late August gains. If you're bullish on small caps going forward, you'll really want to see IWM quickly break the string of lower highs.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was the star of the show yesterday as it managed to eke out gains on an otherwise weak day for equities. With the recent upside, QQQ has become a bit extended as it breaks above its uptrend. The setup for the S&P 500 looks similar to the Nasdaq 100, but unlike QQQ, SPY stalled out just as it bumped up against that trendline resistance.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, September 8th, 2021.