Stock Market Today: October 23rd - 27th, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of October 23rd!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

"No All Clear" - Bitcoin & Bullion Jump, Stocks Dump On Week As Yield-Curve Un-Inverts
FRIDAY, OCT 20, 2023 - 04:37 PM

An inverted curve lights the fuse but the un-inversion is 'the bad part' signaling imminent recession...



...and today we saw the 2s30s curve go positive once again and closed at its 'steepest' since Aug 2022...



Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the 'real' yield curve steepened dramatically, also pushing back up towards un-inverted...



Source: Bloomberg

The steepening is extremely evident in the week's moves across the curve with 2Y up just 3bps and 30Y up 33bps...



Source: Bloomberg

There was also a notable swing in rate-cut expectations for next year. While we zoomed out for context in the chart below, this week saw rate-cut expectations drop from 84bps to 67bps and then reverse back to 78bps (of cuts) after Powell...



Source: Bloomberg

As we discussed previously, this is a warning sign because inverted yield curves precede recessions, but it’s the re-steepening that signals the downturn is going to hit sooner rather than later.



Source: Bloomberg

Historically it is the 3m30y yield curve that has started steepening first before a recession, beginning to rise about five months before its onset. It began in mid-January, which would put a downturn starting as early as June. The spread between 3-month and 30-year yields is about minus 84 basis points, versus the January low of minus 115 basis points.

And 3m30Y has been steepening dramatically this week...



Source: Bloomberg

And before we leave bond-land, we note that financial conditions are now at their tightest since Nov 2022.... and it looks like its starting to drag on the real economy...



Source: Bloomberg

Equity markets did not like this 'high for long' adjustment, especially longer-duration (big tech) as Nasdaq led the week's weakness, down 3%. Equities went out at their lows...



Under the hood today (a monthly OpEx), 0-DTE traders were fighting the down-trend all day - buying calls early and dumping puts later...



Source: SpotGamma

This week saw the 3rd major shorting wave in October with 'Most Shorted' basket dumping...



Source: Bloomberg

Energy and Staples were the week's only green sectors with Discretionary and Real Estate hammered...



Source: Bloomberg

The S&P broke below its uptrendline from September and reached down to its 200DMA



Source: Bloomberg

Regional banks were clubbed like a bay seal this week, now below SVB spike lows...



Source: Bloomberg

The big banks were very mixed with WFC outperforming since earnings began (and the only one green) and MS the biggest loser...



Source: Bloomberg

Of particular note, the GLP-1s (Anti-Obesity drugs) significantly underperformed this week...



Source: Bloomberg

And AI-related names underperformed the AI-at-risk names (amid an admittedly weak market for tech)...



Source: Bloomberg

VIX is on the rise (finally) back above 20 but as Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns, make no mistake: there is no “all clear” [to sell 'high vol'] when “Vol of Vol” VVIX remains parked at 115...



Source: Bloomberg

...which tells you that via “demand for Tails” and a broader distribution of market outcomes that we can remain “stressed,” particularly as client hedging is moving away from short-dated “1 day event risk” and now, into the “unknowable” - where you add geopolitics now on top of the “real risk” being the Credit cycle turn.



While VIX was rising, Gold surged this week with spot prices very close to breaking $2000...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil rallied on the week with WTI getting close to $90 intraday before sliding today...



The dollar ended modestly lower on the week, thanks largely to Chair Powell's comments...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin also caught a safe-haven (and ETF-driven) bid...



Source: Bloomberg

"Bitcoin is more user-friendly, stable, and global than some local currencies, especially in geopolitical conflicts and sanctions. In other words, the more unrest and uncertainty in the world, the more value bitcoin demonstrates, it's a sad truth," BTCM Chief Economist Youwei Yang told The Block.

"Bitcoin's resilience, especially when juxtaposed with the recent downturns in stock market indices, lends credence to the narrative that the digital asset serves as a potential hedge in tumultuous times, akin to gold," Sei Labs Co-Founder Jeff Feng added.

Talking of panic and capital ouflows (which also surged in China), the black market price for the Argentine Peso crashed 10% to 1100/USD (the official-ish price has been 'capped' at 350/USD for 3 months)...



Finally, this is worth paying attention in the context of surging US interest rates...



Source: Bloomberg

...since the Biden administration came into office, the risk of a US sovereign credit event has risen by 5x and are on the rise again now back to levels last seen during the debt-ceiling debacle. That trend is not Americans' friend (and is perhaps why gold has been so bid).

 

November Almanac: Historically a Top Month, But Softer in Pre-Election Years

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA and NASDAQ (since 1971) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950), Russell 1000 (since 1979), and Russell 2000 (since 1979). Average performance in all year ranges from 1.7% from DJIA and S&P 500 to a solid 2.3% by Russell 2000.

In pre-election years, November’s performance is noticeably weaker. DJIA has advanced in 10 of the last 18 pre-election years since 1950 with an average gain of 0.5%. S&P 500 has been up in 11 of the past 18 pre-election years, also gaining on average a rather paltry 0.5%. Small-caps and techs perform better with Russell 2000 climbing in 7 of the past 11 pre-election years, averaging 1.4%. NASDAQ has been up in 8 of the last 13 pre-election year Novembers with an average 1.2% gain. Contributing to pre-election year November’s weaker performance are sizable declines in 1987, 1991 and 2007.


Checking Up on the Transports and Semis
Fri, Oct 20, 2023

The Transports and the Semis are two groups typically viewed as "leading" indicators for the broader market. Below is a check-up on how the two have done since the S&P 500's bear market low was made on October 12th, 2022. As shown, while the Transports (Dow Transportation Index) are now up 15.3% compared to the S&P 500's gain of 19.5%, the Semis (Philly Sox Index) are still up significantly more than both with a gain of 54.1%.



Below is a look at the performance spread between the S&P 500 and the Semis since the 2022 bear market low. While the steepness of the outperformance for Semis faltered a few months ago, we haven't quite seen the bottom of the uptrend channel break down yet either. It's getting very close, though, so this relationship is one to watch in the near term.



Average S&P 500 Stock Down 9.9% Since July Peak
Fri, Oct 20, 2023

As the market approaches the final three hours of the trading week (are there really still three hours left?), the average decline of the S&P 500’s individual components since the index’s closing high on 7/31 is now at -9.9%, but many stocks are down much more than that. While less than one in five stocks in the index are up during this period, 81 stocks are down 20% or more, while another 166 are down between 10% and 20%.



In terms of the sector breakdown, the only sector with average gains among its components is Energy (+5.4%). In addition to Energy, Communication Services, Financials, and Technology have all held up relatively better than the index itself while stocks in the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate sectors are down the most in aggregate. While economic data seems to suggest the consumer is holding up, the performance of consumer stocks is telling a different story.

The second chart shows the percentage of components in each sector that have posted positive returns since the 7/31 high. In five different sectors, less than 10% of components have posted gains, whereas Energy is the only sector where more than a third of components are up. In fact, it’s closer to 90%!



Overall, there’s not a lot of positive things to say when it comes to equity market returns since the end of July, but the table below lists the 21 stocks in the S&P 500 that have rallied 10% or more since the close on 7/31. Topping the list is Eli Lilly (LLY) which has gained 30% on optimism over its weight loss drugs. Behind LLY, Progressive (PGR), and Arista Networks (ANET) are the only other stocks with gains of more than 20%.

In terms of sector representation, it’s not surprising that Energy is among the leaders with five different stocks on the list. Along with Energy, though, both Financials and Health Care each have five stocks as well. Overall, seven different sectors are represented, while four (Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Materials) are completely absent from the list. Not surprisingly, all four of these sectors have been among the worst performers since the 7/31 peak.



The Most Volatile Stocks on Earnings
Thu, Oct 19, 2023

Earnings season has begun with the release of quarterly results of the big banks and the first of the mega caps, Tesla (TSLA), this week. However, the slate doesn't truly ramp up until next week and the week after. That is in terms of both the number of stocks reporting and their collective market caps. In the chart below, we show the cumulative market caps of Russell 1,000 stocks reporting each day from this week through the end of November. As shown, next Tuesday is the single most important day by market cap thanks to both Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) reporting on the same day. That is followed by Meta Platforms (META) on Wednesday and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday. While AMZN makes up a massive portion of the market cap reporting next Thursday, it is also one of the busiest days of earnings season in terms of number of companies reporting. That day, 126 Russell 1,000 members will release earnings. The only busier day will be the following Thursday with 129 stocks reporting. From there, earnings season will wind down but there will still be a couple more big reports like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) on November 6th then NVIDIA (NVDA) on November 21st.



In yesterday's Chart of the Day, we highlighted some stocks that have historically been the top performers on Q3 earnings. In a similar vein, below we show the Russell 1,000 members with at least three years of earnings history that have historically averaged the largest absolute daily move in reaction to earnings. For each stock, we also show its historical beat rates (% of time the stock has beaten consensus analyst EPS and sales estimates) and the percentage of the time that it has raised guidance.

As shown, BILL.com (BILL) tops the list as the most volatile stock on earnings with an average one-day change of +/-18.1%. Across its 15 quarterly reports as a public company, BILL has beaten revenue estimates every single time and missed EPS estimates just once. It has also raised guidance on 8 of its 15 quarterly reports. In addition to BILL, some other stocks that have been extremely volatile on their earnings reaction days include Roku (ROKU), Trade Desk (TTD), Pinterest (PINS), Unity Software (U), AppLovin (APP), Wayfair (W), Netflix (NFLX), Etsy (ETSY), Under Armour (UAA), Twilio (TWLO), and Zoom Video (ZM). This list is a who's who of many stocks that both surged during the post-COVID bull market in 2020 and 2021 and then plummeted during the bear market of 2022.



Bulls and Bears Back Down
Thu, Oct 19, 2023

The S&P 500 has fallen over the past week, and that has given sentiment reason to shift lower. The latest sentiment survey from AAII showed only 34.1% of respondents reported as bullish this week, down from 40% last week. That 5.9 percentage point decline is the largest single-week drop in a month although bullish sentiment is still above levels from two weeks ago.



Even though bullish sentiment dropped, those losses did not flow into bearish sentiment. In fact, bearish sentiment also fell by 1.9 percentage points. On top of the 5.1 percentage point decline in the prior week, at 34.6% bearish sentiment is unchanged versus one month ago.



The larger drop in bulls versus bears did result in the bull-bear spread shifting back into negative territory. While not a wide margin, bears outnumber bulls.



Neutral sentiment came in with the lowest reading in a year last week implying increasingly polarized investor sentiment. However, the declines in both bulls and bears this week resulted in neutral sentiment to climb up to 31.3% which is the highest reading in three weeks and right back in line with the historical average.



Continuing Claims Conflict With Initial Claims
Thu, Oct 19, 2023

The back half of September into the first couple of weeks of October saw jobless claims rebound off their lows. Last week saw that rebound grow with a modestly upward revision to 211K. However, there was a substantial improvement this week with claims dropping to 198K and back below 200K for the first time since the last week of January. That compares to expectations for a reading of 210K.



On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, that improvement is even more impressive. Claims totaled a meager 181K. For the comparable week of the year, the only years with lower readings were 1967 through 1969. While the one-week move is impressive and indicates claims remain at historically strong levels, this time of year has historically seen claims drift higher into year's end.



While initial jobless claims had a positive move, continuing claims are sending a conflicting signal. After seasonal adjustment, continuing claims have risen for four weeks in a row and are now at the highest levels since early July.



Housing Starts Muted Relative to Expectations
Wed, Oct 18, 2023

Following Monday’s weaker-than-expected report on homebuilder sentiment, actual data on residential construction data in the form of data on Building Permits and Housing Starts came in mixed relative to expectations. While Housing Starts missed expectations by 25K (1.358 million versus 1.383 million), Building Permits topped forecasts by 20K (1.473 million versus 1.453 million).

The table below breaks down both reports by the size of units and on a regional basis. In last month’s report, the big miss in Housing Starts was due to a sharp decline in multi-family units, but they drove the 7.0% m/m increase in September with a gain of 17.6%. On a y/y basis, though, multi-family units are still down 31.4%. On the multi-family front, Building Permits picked up where Housing Starts left off last month with a 14.3% decline on a m/m basis and a 29.7% y/y decline. On a regional basis, the Northeast experienced the largest m/m decline in terms of both Building Permits and Housing Starts.



Taking a longer-term look at Housing Starts on a 12-month average basis, they continued to roll over in September. At an average monthly rate of 1.4 million, Housing Starts are well off the COVID peak from mid-2022 but are still pre-COVID levels just below 1.3 million. So, on that measure and coupled with the spike in rates, one could make a valid argument that the level of Housing Starts has further to fall in the short term.



Looking at the 12-month average of Housing Starts and Building Permits from a shorter-term perspective shows that both indicators remain weak. While Housing Starts briefly stabilized this summer, they’ve resumed their downward trend in the last couple of months. Building Permits have been in a more pronounced downtrend where the 12-month average reading has declined for 14 straight months- the longest streak of declines since the Financial Crisis. Like Housing starts too, the current level of Building Permits is still above its pre-Covid peak.



NASDAQ’s Q4 Rally From October’s Low

Yesterday we posted NASDAQ’s Q4 Rally from the Sep/Oct Low. This year we have hit the low in October, so here are NASDAQ’s Q4 Rally stat’s from October lows. Since 1971, there has been a NASDAQ Yearend Rally 98.1% of the time, and its average advance has been 13.1%. We define the Yearend Rally here as the gain from NASDAQ’s October closing low through its high in November or December.

NASDAQ’s best Yearend rally was an amazing 54.5% in 1998. And even when we review NASDAQ’s performance from the same October low through the last day of the year, NASDAQ has been nearly as strong, advancing 46 of 52 years or 88.5% of the time with an average gain of 9.5%. Only one (2007) of the six losses was a pre-election year.

Buy in October, and Get Your Portfolio Sober

Octoberphobia strikes again but fear not. Our Tactical Seasonal MACD Buy signal has triggered. Market seasonality has turned bullish, and October has historically been a good time to buy. Our bullish outlook for Q4 remains intact. The market’s pullback/correction has most likely run its course, the seasonal low is in, and the market is likely to begin a new trend higher. Weakness can be considered an opportunity to accumulate new long positions for the “Best Months.”

Rates Hit Homebuilders
Tue, Oct 17, 2023

Among industrial production and retail sales, the other major economic release this morning was homebuilder sentiment from the NAHB. As shown below, the October report showed sentiment slid down to a new multi-month low of 40. That was a four point decline month over month on top of the September reading being revised one point lower to 44. That marks the third MoM decline in a row since sentiment peaked at 56 in July. That leaves the index 9 points above the post-pandemic low of 31 from last December.



The drop in the headline index was due to broad-based weakness throughout the report. As shown below, every component of the headline number was lower month over month and is now in the bottom quartile of historical readings. Those month-over-month declines in October were also historically large, each one with the exception of future sales ranking in the bottom decile of all month-over-month moves. That would imply the nation's homebuilders have seen significant deterioration in their businesses which the NAHB noted was on account of higher rates.



As for a regional look at homebuilder sentiment, each area also saw a lower reading month over month, however, there is a degree of variability in these readings. For starters, homebuilder sentiment in the Northeast is by far the healthiest with the October reading registering in the 58th percentile of all months since 2005. That compares to the next highest, the Midwest, which is only in the 38th percentile. Like the Northeast, the Midwest only fell by a single index point month over month, and that was dwarfed by the 7-point decline in the West and a 5-point decline in the South.



In addition to today's homebuilder sentiment data, one week ago the NAHB also published its quarterly survey on the remodeling market. Here too there has been a significant deterioration in conditions on account of higher interest rates. While the headline index remains bolstered and sits above the pre-pandemic range, it has pulled back significantly and is at the lowest levels since Q1 2020. Future market conditions, however, are back in line with pre-pandemic readings. Remodelers are also reporting new post-pandemic lows of smaller backlogs and fewer appointments for proposals. This trend was also reflected somewhat in the September Retail Sales report where housing-related sectors have seen some of the largest year-year declines in sales.



In addition to homebuilder sentiment having taken a hit, homebuilder stocks have also pulled back. Since the high at the start of August, the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB) has fallen 13.9% having recently found support at its 200-DMA. While the group has found support, the past couple of months' downtrend remains firmly in place.



October Historically A Good Time To Buy

“Buy in October and get your portfolio sober.”

Octoberphobia strikes again but fear not. Our Tactical Seasonal MACD Buy signal has triggered. Market seasonality has turned bullish, and October has historically been a good time to buy. Our bullish outlook for Q4 remains intact. The market’s pullback/correction has most likely run its course, the seasonal low is likely in, and the market is poised to begin a new trend higher. Weakness can be considered an opportunity to accumulate new long positions for the “Best Months.”

NASDAQ’s Yearend Rally

Since 1971, there has always been a NASDAQ Yearend Rally and its average advance has been 14.7%. We define the Yearend Rally as the gain from NASDAQ’s September or October closing low through its high in November or December. NASDAQ’s best Yearend rally was an amazing 54.5% in 1998. And even when we review NASDAQ’s performance from the same September or October low through the last day of the year, NASDAQ has been nearly as strong, advancing 94.2% of the time with an average gain of 11.1%. And none of the three losses occurred in a pre-election year like 2023!


Near Record Volatility of Bonds Relative to Stocks
Mon, Oct 16, 2023

2022 was a year of extreme volatility for both stocks and bonds, and while things have quieted down a bit this year, volatility in the US Treasury market remains extremely elevated. The top chart below shows the average daily percentage move in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury ETF (TLT) over a rolling 200-trading day period. Heading into 2022, volatility in both asset classes was very low after spiking to extremes in the early days of COVID, but once the Fed started to hint that it was starting to "think about thinking about" hiking rates, all hell broke loose. While the average daily change in SPY over a rolling 200-day period never exceeded its peak from the COVID crash, volatility in long-term US treasuries, as proxied by TLT, rose above +/-1% to its highest level since the first half of 2012. When treasuries are swinging up and down (mostly down) 1% on a daily basis, that's a very volatile environment!

While average daily swings in both stocks and bonds have declined this year, volatility has been much slower to subside in the treasury market than in the stock market. The second chart below shows the spread between the average daily percentage move in both ETFs (TLT minus SPY), and as of last Friday, the spread rose to 0.237%, which outside of ten trading days in August 2015, is the widest gap between the two ETFs since TLT was first launched in 2003. Elevated volatility in bonds usually accompanies volatility in stocks, but the current degree of volatility in the bond market relative to stocks is rarely this high.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2023-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 10.20.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 10.20.23-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for October 20th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10/22/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (10/23-10/27) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/23) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 10.23.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 10.23.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 10.24.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 10.24.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 10.25.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 10.25.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 10.26.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 10.26.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 10.27.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 10.27.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($AMZN $MSFT $META $GOOGL $BA $ENPH $KO $VZ $CLF $INTC $XOM $SNAP $RCL $IBM $GE $F $RTX $HSY $V $UPS $CMG $NOW $DXCM $MMM $ALGN $ABBV $TDOC $MO $LUV $KLAC $CVX $TMO $NEE $ADM $SKX $MTDR $SPOT $NOC $VLO $ORLY $CNC $AMT $MRK $X $NEM $BMY $MA $BKR $CMCSA $CHTR)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning October 23rd, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 5 minutes into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, October the 23rd, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/23/23 - "...Baby One More Time"
Mon, Oct 23, 2023

After flirting with the 5% threshold for a number of days now, the 10-year yield finally traded above that level this morning but has retreated back below as we approach the opening bell. Equity futures aren't thrilled with the move and are firmly lower in response. Besides higher interest rates, unrest in the Middle East, and some hesitancy heading into what will be a very busy week of earnings are contributing to the negative tone.

By now, we’re all familiar with the fact that the S&P 500 has had positive returns on each of the last 15 Mondays, which as shown in the chart below, is easily the longest streak since at least 1952 when the five-day trading week in its current format started. The prior record of eleven up Mondays ended in June 2005. Unfortunately for bulls, it’s looking as though that streak is set to end as S&P 500 futures are firmly lower. With today being the 25th anniversary of the release of Britney Spear's "...Baby One More Time", can we get the streak to 16?



As far as Mondays are concerned, the streak has been significant in terms of this year’s gains for the market. While the S&P 500 ended last week with a YTD gain of 10.02%, without Mondays, it would actually be down fractionally on the year. The “Magnificent Seven” have gotten all the credit for carrying the market this year, but “Magnificent Mondays” have been just as important.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, October 23rd, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, October the 24th, 2023!

 

Good Tuesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/24/23 - Bitcoin Breakout
Tue, Oct 24, 2023

Equity futures are trading higher for what seems like a change this morning after the S&P 500 has posted five straight days of losses. Positive earnings news seems to be driving the gains. We’re starting to see a heavier flow of larger companies report, and this morning’s batch has been generally better than expected. The real test will come after the close, though, as we’ll hear from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) after the close. Treasury yields and crude oil are generally behaving this morning, and the only data on the economic calendar is preliminary PMI readings for the Manufacturing and Services sectors, as well as the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

After trading in a relatively tight range over the last six months and seeing its daily volatility converge to levels more in line with a long-term US Treasury, bitcoin prices have been rallying over the last few days, capping it off with a gain of nearly 10% today. Prices briefly surged past $35,000 overnight, and while they have pulled back from those highs, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is on pace for its highest close since May 2022. Optimism over approval for a spot ETF has been cited for the gain, but rising geo-political instability and concerns over sovereign debt loads can’t be ruled out either.



While prices got there briefly overnight, bitcoin is currently on pace to come up just short of a double-digit single-day percentage gain. Heading into today, the current streak without a one-day gain of at least 10% was 224 calendar days (bitcoin trades every day) which ranked as the longest streak since the 229-day streak that ended in November 2018. Before that, the only other streak that was longer was the 272 days ending in March 2017.