Stock Market Today: February 1st - 5th, 2021

meanwhile, standby! i think i'm gonna add the rest of those classic emojis into the forum. there were some that i used a lot and would like to see added here as well

 

and btw, don't mind me guys. i'm just using this handle cause my main one @bigbear0083 doesn't currently have admin access connected to its account yet. so i need to use this to add things like this bb tags feature and emojis, etc.

 

and done

it's a bit much but let me now what y'all's think

 

Good Wednesday morning SF!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead on this Hump Day.

 

A New Act Or A Small Shift?
Wed, Feb 3, 2021

A couple of weeks ago in our Equity Market Pros and Cons report, we highlighted the chart below showing the S&P 500 over the past year and the various "acts" of sector rotation in those periods. Overall, the fact that various sectors have been participating at different stages of the rally has been a good sign for breadth. In the most recent act, the leaders have been sectors like Energy, Financials, and Tech which are the three top-performing sectors. On the other hand, Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples have been some of the worst-performing sectors.



But looking at the relative strength charts of the eleven sectors versus the S&P 500 over the past year, there have been some reversals recently, meaning some of the trends that have been in place over the past few months are turning a corner. For example, the relative strength lines of Energy and Financials—the two best performing sectors since November—have generally been in uptrends during the current "act" meaning they have outperformed the broader S&P 500. But in the past couple of weeks, the relative strength lines of both Energy and Financials have broken those uptrends. The Industrials sector has seen the same play out while the Materials sector is sitting right at the bottom of its multi-month uptrend.

On the other hand, Technology—which has been the third best performing sector—has seen its relative strength line make a break higher alongside Communication Services. While a less recent development, Consumer Discretionary has also seen its relative strength line resume its uptrend. Perhaps more interestingly, some defensive sectors like Real Estate and to a lesser degree Utilities have been the laggards of the current act, but have seen their relative strength lines turn higher recently. For the former, this recent uptick has broken the past year's downtrend. Granted, the same trends are still very much in place for the other two defensives: Consumer Staples and Health Care.

 

haha, this market never cases to amaze. speaking of that rocket emoji. pretty sure i've seen it added to my discord server. ima see if can add that here too cause i think that would be pretty useful to have here

 

Good Thursday morning SF!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead on this Thursday.

 

Morning Lineup - 2/4/21 - That's a Negative
Thu, Feb 4, 2021

To say that the last week has been a see-saw for the market would be an understatement. Last week, the S&P 500 went from overbought levels (one standard deviation above 50-DMA) to below its 50-DMA in the span of three trading days. Just two trading days later, the S&P 500 was not only back above its 50-DMA, but it was also back at overbought levels. That may not sound like all that an extreme of a reversal, but going all the way back to the start of the S&P, there have only been 14 other periods where the S&P 500 closed below its 50-DMA after being at overbought levels within the prior three trading days and then went on to close at overbought levels within the next three trading days. Looking at the occurrences on the chart, it hasn't been a very consistent market signal, but it does shed light on just how volatile the last several trading days have been.

 

Was out most of the day today, and just now catching up to everything that I missed. Wow! I'll have be honest here, but I didn't quite expect another RYFOR (rip your face off rally) back to ATHs again. I think this market has officially lit the crackpipe

 

Interesting, just saw this on my Twitter feed the last hour, but apparently in these past 4 days has seen one of the largest % drops in a 4 day stretch ever for the VIX. Previous large drops tended to see higher markets as well.

 

NFP's due out in about half hour from now, could move things in either direction:

 

Morning Lineup - 2/5/21 - Jobs Day
Fri, Feb 5, 2021

It may be Super Bowl weekend, but most people looking to enjoy a couple of beers watching the game this year will be following the lead of George Thorogood and drinking those beers alone- or at least with nothing more than a small group! Before we get to thinking about Sunday's game, though, we still have the last trading day of the week to get through, and what a week it has been. The S&P 500 is up over 4% and on pace for its best week since the Election.

The January Non-Farm Payrolls report was just released and the results were mixed. While total Non-Farm Payrolls rose less than expected (49K vs 105K), the Unemployment Rate fell to 6.3% versus expectations for 6.7%. Average hourly earnings were slightly weaker than expected at 0.2% on a month over month basis, but because of revisions showed a larger than expected y/y increase. The average workweek spiked up to 35 hours which is a level that hasn't been seen in years. Despite millions of jobs lost since the start of the pandemic, Americans who are working are working more and earnings more than they have in years.

What a difference a week makes. In last week's Bespoke Report and our B.I.G. Tips report from Sunday evening, we noted that after the declines from the prior week, major US index and sector ETFs had sen their timing scores in our Trend Analyzer shift from mostly 'Poor' to 'Good'. Below is a snapshot of where things stood for US indices through last Friday's close. Over the trailing five trading days, every index ETF was down, but with the exception of the Micro-Cap ETF (IWC), every ETF had a 'Good' timing score.



After the gains of the last four trading days, the picture has changed a lot. Over the last five trading days, every ETF in the Trend Analyzer was up over 1% and most are up well over 2%. With these gains, all of the ETFs have now moved back into overbought territory, and all of the timing scores have now shifted to 'Neutral' or 'Poor'. That doesn't mean that the market will necessarily pull back from here, but the risk/reward is skewed more towards the risk side again. As always, pick your spots.

 

would be something if we finally get a sub 20 vix closing print here, don't think that happens yet still though