Stock Market Today: August 28th - September 1st, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of August 28th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

Hawkish Powell & Horrible Data Spark Yield Curve & Crude Pain As Gold & Nasdaq Gain
FRIDAY, AUG 25, 2023 - 04:00 PM

From a macro perspective, "bad data" dominated the week with the Citi macro surprise index tumbling most since April...



Source: Bloomberg

From a micro perspective, it was all about retailers (consumer credit challenges and shrink) and NVDA (keeping the dream alive for the AI bubble). Retail stock ended the week lower and while NVDA exploded higher on the earnings news, it collapsed back in the last two days, down over 10% from its highs...



Source: Bloomberg

Of course, Fed Chair Powell's address today was a key event, but as Bloomberg's Cameron Crise notes, while it was tilted hawkish, it really said nothing new...

The “TL;DR” summary of Jerome Powell’s speech more or less boils down to “we’ll hike again if we need to but won’t if we don’t.”

That’s not exactly ground-breaking stuff, which is one reason that the market response has been fairly muted relative to the anticipation of this speech.

Interestingly, despite the bad data, anticipation of Powell's speech - and his actual speech - sent a hawkish shiver through short-term rate expectations (with a 25% chance now of a Sept hike and a 45% chance of a Nov hike)...



Source: Bloomberg

This is what that looks like for the curve...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were very mixed this week with the long-end dramatically outperforming (2Y +10bps, 30Y -10bps)...



Source: Bloomberg

Which means the yield curve flattened dramatically, inverting deeper (back towards the July FOMC meeting reversal)...



Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield surged back above 5.00%, rising to the July highs and reversing modestly...



Source: Bloomberg

Equities were also mixed with Nasdaq outperforming (along with the S&P) while The Dow was the ugliest horse in the glue factory, ending lower on the week with Small Caps down on the week...



The dollar ended the week marginally higher, bouncing back from Wednesdays plunge...



Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was volatile and mixed but while Ripple rallied and Solana sold off, Bitcoin and Ethereum ended the week practically unchanged...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin glued around $26,000...



Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold scrambled back above $1900, and held it even with today's post-Powell puke...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil dropped on Powell's speech (demand fears) and then accelerated lower on a Tansim tweet detailing the US-Iran deal (supply fears)... and then ripped bck into the green as everyone realized this is not new news.



And this is probably nothing...

However, overall, WTI was lower on the week, but managed to get back above $80 by today's close...



Finally, what happens next?



Source: Bloomberg

Could it really?

 

Volatility Is The Toll We Pay
Posted on August 24, 2023

“The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.” Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard

With stocks up five months in a row, we’ve hit some weakness so far in August, which is fairly normal as we discussed in Stocks Don’t Like August, Now What? Here’s the truth, investors have been rather spoiled this year, with stocks having one of their best starts to a year ever. Yet it is important to remember that while stocks usually go up, they can also go down. Even in some of the best years ever, stocks tend to see double digit corrections at some point during the year.

The S&P 500 pulled back nearly 8% back in March during the regional banking crisis and recently was down nearly 5% from the late July peak. Here’s the thing, volatility is normal (even in bull markets) and around here we like to say volatility is the toll we pay to invest. Or as the great Jack Bogle put it in the quote above, stock market volatility can make you take your eyes off the prize of longer-term investing.

With help from our friends at Ned Davis Research, here is a great chart that shows just how often you can expect said volatility.



A few takeaways:

• More than three 5% mild corrections a year, which puts the only one we’ve seen so far this year in perspective.
• There tends to be one 10% correction a year, while a bear market happens close to every three years on average.
• Then the real interesting one to me is each year sees an average of seven separate 3% dips. That isn’t much of a dip, sure, but when they happen they can cause quite a bit of worry and angst.

I’m out in Denver right now for a client event and a conference, so I wanted today’s blog to be short and sweet. Plus, the chart above is one of those charts that investors need to always remember, as when volatility hits (and it will) you need to be prepared for it. Print it off, save it, put it on the fridge, just don’t forget it. As Dwight Eisenhower said, “Plans are useless, but planning is everything.” Plan for each year to have scary headlines and volatility.

Falling 10-Year Yield Rallies Stocks On Seasonal Cue

But overarching seasonal weakness still looms. Early August weakness persisted through mid-August’s usually seasonal favorable period. The absence of strength during this usually bullish period is a concern. From their recent highs DJIA corrected 3.8%, S&P 500 fell 4.8% and NASDAQ pulled back 7.4%.

While today’s rally was encouraging, the lack of the usual mid-month strength this year is clear in August’s Seasonal Pattern Chart comparing Pre-election Years (right axis) to 2023 (left axis).

Going forward August’s pattern suggests continued weakness and volatility before a modest rebound just ahead of the end of the month. Even if late-August strength does materialize, it is not likely to persist during the historically weakest month of the year, September.

Even though mid-August strength was overridden, the S&P 500 continues to track applicable full-year seasonal patterns closely this year. This chart also suggests continued weakness and volatility lasting possibly until late October.

Looking at S&P 500’s pullback in February and March of this year when it went from well above average to below average pre-election performance suggests the current pullback could be around the halfway point.

At the S&P 500’s late July peak, numerous excesses had accumulated. Valuations were stretched in many segments of the market, sentiment had reached frothy levels, and technical indicators were overbought. Some progress has been made unwinding those, but more remains to be done. Expect more volatility and chop through the rest of August and September. A Q4 rally into the New Year is still in play.

Eight Questions About China
Posted on August 22, 2023

We’ve gotten a lot of questions on China, including what’s happening there and how it’ll impact the US, and potentially, financial markets. We’re going to tackle all of those in this blog.

1. What’s happening in China?

The economy is in trouble. Retail sales are up just 2.5% year over year, well off the pre-pandemic average pace of 7-10%. Usually, the industrial side of the economy makes up for slow consumer spending, but not this time. Industrial production is up just 3.7% since last year, which is well below the average 6% pace we saw before the pandemic.



Over the last few years, exports have been a big driver of growth, but exports have fallen almost 15% over the past year as the rest of the world shifts spending from goods, China’s main source of exports, to services in the current post-pandemic environment. Perhaps even more concerning was that imports also fell 12% over the past year, which is a sign that internal demand in China is really slowing down.

2. What does that mean for their economy?

Economic growth in the second largest economy in the world is set to slow meaningfully. In inflation-adjusted terms, the Chinese economy grew an average of 7.7% per year between 2010 and 2019. That’s slowed to 4.4% over the last 3 years (2020-2021), and it looks like growth is likely to slow even further, perhaps to 3-4%.

3. Why is the economy slowing anyway?

In the US, just under 70% of the economy is made up of consumer spending. However, in China, that’s under 40%. It’s the supply-side that matters more, and that’s driven by investment spending, which accounts for 44% of GDP (versus about 20% in the US).

The problem is that a lot of this investment spending was in the real estate sector, and that was on the back of rising debt. Overall debt to the non-financial sector soared over the past decade, from about 140% of GDP at the end of 2008 to almost 300% at the end of 2022. Contrast that to the US, where it’s stayed relatively steady around 250% of GDP. This was how China grew after the Great Financial Crisis. A lot of the debt went to goose up real estate activity, which by some estimates accounts for just under 30% of GDP (versus about 17% in the US).



However, authorities were aware that it drove a lot of unproductive “investments,” including infrastructure, like airports, bridges, and highways. Overbuilding is present on the residential side as well. The that about one-fifth of apartments in urban China (about 130 million units) were estimated to be unoccupied in 2018 (when the latest data was available).

Authorities started clamping down a couple of years ago. You may have heard of problems with Evergrande, China’s second largest developer. They experienced massive losses amid new regulations, ended up defaulting on debt payments, and eventually filed for bankruptcy. And they were just one among many.

Investment in the real estate sector was running around 10% annually before the pandemic. As of July, real estate investment is down almost 8% year over year (y/y). So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that real estate activity has crashed.

• Property sales are down 15% y/y in volume terms
• Floor space under construction is down 7% y/y
• New home starts growth is down 26% y/y

This is not good news for Chinese households. The absence of safety net programs (like social security and Medicare) mean Chinese households save a lot, and they typically invest income and savings in real estate/homes. Crashing prices means they’re less likely to spend their savings on real estate. But that also means there’s less money going into the sector.

Developers in China have historically raised capital by selling apartments they’ve yet to build and used that capital to finance operations. This was an easy game to play when prices were rising and demand was high. Now, it’s gone the other way, and there’s no easy way out. Developers are scrapped for capital, leading to even more defaults. Another large developer, Country Garden, is in the news now for this very reason (they recently missed a couple of interest payments).

4. Can’t they just bail out the real estate sector?

They probably could, but they’re reluctant to do so. Authorities have been clear that the country cannot depend on real estate for economic growth. They seem to recognize that putting more money behind bad investments is not the way to go. As the economists now estimate that China now has to invest $9 to produce each dollar of GDP growth, up from $5 dollar a decade ago. There’s going to be a period of hard adjustments ahead.

5. Can China boost households by sending checks, like the US?

Historically, any “stimulus” has been on the supply-side, typically by making it easy to borrow. However, they seem wary to do so now, for a lot of the reasons I mentioned above, they’re only nibbling around the edges with a few interest rate cuts.

But Chinese authorities appear to believe that empowering households to consume more would undermine state authority, and as such, they are.

More importantly, transforming the economy from one led by investment to one led by consumption would involve a lot of income redistribution, for example by shoring up China’s weak social safety net by introducing something akin to social security and better unemployment benefits. But that would mean less money would be going to the local governments and the industrial/property. Those kinds of changes just aren’t politically palatable, and hence the economic adjustment is going to be hard.

6. Will this impact the US economy?

From an economic perspective, not much. The reality is that US imports from China have been falling a lot over the past year – we need less of pandemic related materials and other goods as people continue to spend more on services now. There is some decoupling going on as well, with goods imports from China falling as a percent of GDP. It’s fallen to below 2% of GDP right now – the lowest since 2006. Instead, imports from everywhere else have picked up.

Trade with China is not going to zero but it’s likely to get relatively smaller. Note that part of what’s happening is increased trade with Asian nations like Vietnam, Philippines, and India, as imported goods get re-routed from China to the US via these countries.



The reality is that China needs the US more than the other way around. The US economy is reliant on consumption, and that’s internally generated demand. Whereas China is very dependent on investment and exports, and for that they need demand outside to be strong.

7. Can they “hurt” the US by selling treasuries?

If the Chinese sell treasuries, we see it as more of a sign of their weakness than anything else.

Historically, they’ve been able to hold their currency relatively lower to help the export sector. How did they do that? The Chinese central bank sold their currency (CNY) and bought USD assets, namely treasuries. Though over the last decade they’ve purchased more agency-mortgage backed securities (MBS). They weren’t buying US treasuries as a favor to the US, but rather, because they had to. They were reliant on exporting to Americans and got dollars in return. With those dollars, they bought US treasuries/securities, and kept their currency relatively low.

The problem now is that capital is trying to leave China because of slowing growth. That puts downward pressure on their currency – more than they would like. So, they’re starting to sell off some of their “war chest” of reserves (Treasuries and US agency mortgage-backed securities) to defend the currency. That’s essentially the equivalent of selling US dollars and buying yuan.

So, as I said, it’s a sign of economic weakness more than anything else.

8. Will this impact financial markets?

If there’s any impact, it’ll be in financial markets via headline risk, similar to 2015-2016 when China devalued their currency. The difference is that the US economy is now on firmer footing.

• If the Chinese are selling down their reserves of MBS and Treasuries, that could put more upward pressure on US Treasury yields, though only at the margin since we’re talking about the most liquid market in the world.

Most of what happens with yields is still going to be driven by US growth prospects and Fed policy expectations. US economic growth, in sharp contrast to China, has been resilient – rising 2.6% over the past year, which is faster than pre-pandemic. And it may be accelerating in the 3rd quarter, based on a slew of solid economic data we received recently.

China’s problems didn’t start this year. I’d argue it started a decade ago as growth became increasingly reliant on debt. Our leading economic index for China has shown economic growth downshifting below trend for several years now, with only brief periods when activity picked up.



It’s quite amazing to think that the US economy is probably growing faster than the Chinese economy at this point. That’s something we haven’t seen in decades, and right now, the US economy’s relative strength looks set to continue. That’s a big reason why we continue to be overweight US equities and underweight emerging markets, where China as the largest constituent.

Energy Holds The 100% Line
Tue, Aug 22, 2023

Each day in our Sector Snapshot, among a number of sector level internal metrics, we show the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-DMAs. Yesterday, that reading fell down to 33% for the S&P 500. While last Thursday saw a slightly lower reading and 33% is far from the worst in recent years (as shown in the first chart below), this month has seen a material decline in the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-DMAs. One sector has proved to be an exception, though; while just a third of the S&P 500 components are above their 50-days, 100% of stocks in the Energy sector are still above their 50-DMAs.



Going back to 1990, it has been rare to see such a small share of the broader market above their 50-DMA while all the components of an entire sector are above their respective 50-DMAs. In fact, it's only happened six other times. In the table below, we show each of those previous periods as well as the S&P 500 and each sectors' reading on the percentage of stocks above their 50-DMAs. As shown, since 2021 there have been multiple similar instances in which every stock in the Energy sector has bucked the general trend of the broader market. One notable difference this time around is some of the most heavily weighted sectors like Tech and Health Care have far stronger breadth readings. In other words, breadth is healthier (relatively speaking) for those more impactful groups.

Prior to the pandemic, 2006, 2014, and 2016 were the only other periods. In 2006 and again in 2016, Utilities was the sector with 100% of stocks above their 50-DMAs while around 30% of the S&P 500 was above. Then in 2014, Communication Services (when it was much smaller - about ten stocks- and before it was reconfigured to include stocks like Alphabet, Meta, etc.) was the sector with strong breath.



Why We’re Not Too Worried About Rising Bankruptcies
Posted on August 15, 2023

Consumer credit card has recently been in the news after it hit a record $1 trillion. However, Ryan walked us through several reasons why this eye-popping number is not that concerning.

On the business side, rising bankruptcies have also been making headlines month after month, as chapter 11 filings this year exceed what we saw last year. There were 402 bankruptcy filings over the first seven months of 2023, close to double the 2022 rate and the highest since 2010. The blame has landed on higher interest rates and a tough operating environment.

Bond Markets Don’t Seem Concerned
Interest rates have certainly risen thanks to an aggressive Federal Reserve looking to push inflation lower. However, bond investors don’t seem worried about a potential rise in bankruptcies and associated loan defaults, even for below investment-grade borrowers.

One way to monitor this to look at spreads for “high-yield” borrowers. These spreads represent the interest rate premium that companies rated below investment-grade companies have to pay over risk-free Treasury interest rates.

Typically, if investors expect economic hardship, and a higher likelihood of default, they will charge these companies higher interest rates on loans. That would result in larger spreads against Treasury rates.

The good news is that high-yield spreads are currently at 3.8%, which is in just the 28th percentile across the data going back to 1997. The average spread across the entire period is 5.4%. The current spread is also below what we saw last June, which is when the Federal Reserve signaled they were going to get a lot more aggressive. Notably, as you can see in the chart below, the current level remains well below what we’ve seen ahead of prior crises, including in 2000 and late 2007.



Bond investors typically sniff out hard economic times for companies well ahead of other investors. And right now, they don’t see any signs of that.

Banks Aren’t Seeing Elevated Risk Either
The other group that deeply cares about potential defaults are banks, since their entire business model is based on lending money out and getting paid back interest and principal. There are always some loans that default but the goal is to minimize these. The good news is that delinquency rates on business loans have been falling for a couple of quarters now, and as of Q1 they’re just under 1%. Delinquency rates were at 1.1% before the pandemic, and historically, they’ve averaged about 2.7% outside of recessions.



The Federal Reserve also collects “charge-off” data from all commercial banks – these are losses on loans that a bank recognizes, after they consider any recovery on defaulted loans. As a percent of average loans outstanding over a quarter, the “charge-off rate” in the first quarter was just 0.28%. This is obviously lagging data but that’s still well below the pre-pandemic non-recessionary average of 0.72%. We’re a long way below that right now.


Entrepreneurship Is Rising
The other side of bankruptcies is entrepreneurship, especially entrepreneurs who plan to turn payroll. The Census Bureau tracks monthly business applications. Especially useful is a category called business applications with “planned wages.” These are applications that include a first wages-paid date on the IRS form SS-4, indicating a high likelihood of transitioning into a business with payroll.

There were more than 293,000 such business applications in the first half of 2023, which is 2% higher than what we saw last year. It’s also 21% higher than what we saw in the first half of 2019, the year prior to the pandemic.



Entrepreneurship kicked into overdrive after the pandemic, as people ended up with more money in their pockets – thanks to federal aid and money saved from limited spending during lockdowns.

Applications jumped in 2020 and 2021 to an average of 582,000 a year, which was a 17% increase from the average we saw in the previous decade. And the good news is that we didn’t see a huge falloff in 2022 despite aggressive rate hikes by the Fed.

It looks like applications are picking up again in 2023. Score that against rising bankruptcy data, and yet another data point to put things in perspective.

Markets Are Coming to Terms with the Fact That the Economy is Strong
Posted on August 18, 2023

Another month, another slew of economic data that not only shows that the economy is resilient, but it may in fact be accelerating. Here’s a quick recap.

Retail sales and food services rose 0.7% in July. One month may be noisy, but even if you take a 3-month average, retail sales rose 7% at an annualized pace. By the way, inflation was up just 1.9% over this period. Which means inflation-adjusted retail sales rose at a 5% annualized pace and leaves it 7% above the pre-pandemic trend. That’s incredible and it tells you how strong households are.



There are four positive stories on the manufacturing front as well, all of which are tailwinds for the economy.

Vehicle production has rebounded to the highest level since 2018 (which means it’s even higher than at any point in 2019). Even with that, we’ve yet to make up for a cumulative shortfall of 5 million vehicles due to pandemic shutdowns, which means production is likely to remain strong.



Production of medium and heavy trucks is also moving up, rising 14% this year.

The aerospace industry is also seeing a boom, with production up 4% this year.

High tech equipment production (computers, communication equipment, semiconductors) is surging once again, rising more than 7% over the first seven months of this year, and up 20% since February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Suffice to say, none of this is what we’d expect to be seeing if the economy was heading into a recession. These are all large investments companies have to make, and it tells you that they believe future demand is going to be strong.

Overall, this is positive for current activity and GDP growth near-term. But its also positive in two other important ways:

• Inflationary pressure may be reduced as supply increases
• Productivity may rise in the future on the back of investments made today

We also received data from the housing market that shows single-family construction continues to rebound. Housing starts rose almost 7% in July and are up 22% since last November. Building permits, which are a sign of future supply, rose just under 1% and are up 24% since December. It tells you how homebuilders are viewing potential demand, despite mortgage rate rising above 7%. This is another tailwind for GDP growth, as we wrote in our Mid-Year Outlook.



All this has sent the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of Q3 GDP growth to a whopping 5.8%. A month and a half ago, the median expectation for Q3 growth was zero! Which meant half of the polled economists were expecting negative growth. It’s hard to believe GDP will rise close to 4%, let alone 6% (this is after adjusting for inflation) – and we do have a long way to go before the quarter closes out. But the direction should tell you a lot about how the economy is doing.

Higher Interest Rates for Longer, Much Longer
Equity markets have pulled back despite this run of strong economic data. Of course, this is a period that has historically been weak for equities, as Ryan has pointed out. It’s ironic that this is happening even as a lot of bearish analysts are throwing in the towel and switching their estimates to less bearish outcomes.

But it’s the bond market that has my attention.

Investors are not expecting the Fed to raise rates any further despite the strong economic data. So, the fed funds rate is expected to peak around 5.4%. A 5.4% peak makes sense because inflation seems to be rolling over, and there’s potentially more disinflation in the pipeline, with vehicle and shelter inflation easing further.

What’s interesting, is that longer-term bond yields have been surging even as short-term rate remain steady. Some of this is because of a potentially increased supply of Treasuries, as the government looks to cover a rising deficit. But investors’ expectations of what may be coming has also changed.

Rising long-term yields mean investors expect the Fed to keep rates on the higher side long-term. The run of strong economic data, including employment, has surprised a lot of investors. As a result, expectations for future growth are shifting higher as the economy proves its resilience in the face of an aggressive Fed and higher interest rates.

Investors do expect the Fed to cut rates by about 1-1.25% in 2024, in the face of lower inflation. But not much more after that.



A month ago, they expected the Fed to keep rates around 3.2% into 2027. That’s now almost up to 4%, which is well above Fed officials’ own “long-run” forecast of 2.5%. This long-run expectation is similar to what the Fed expected over the last decade, and so they’re definitely anchored to that.

Yet, investors see it different. They’re saying that the economy is resilient, and its likely to remain that way. But it also means that interest rates will have to be higher than what we saw over the past decade.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2023-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 8.25.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 8.25.23-

 

​

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for August 25th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8/27/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums September 2023 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market direction vote and stock picks for September of this year 2023!

StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (8/28-9/1) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (8/28) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

​

Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 8.28.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 8.28.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 8.29.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 8.29.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 8.30.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 8.30.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 8.31.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 8.31.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.1.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.1.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($CRWD $CRM $NIO $AVGO $LULU $OKTA $CHWY $MDB $BBY $DG $HPE $S $VEEV $PDD $FIVE $NAT $BIG $PSNY $HEI $HPQ $IOT $PSTG $UBS $ASO $DELL $COO $BNS $BOX $SOL $VMW $NTNX $BMO $GOGL $CTLT $PD $PDCO $SJM $AFYA $BZUN $AMBA $AMWD $MOMO $MBUU $CPB $EXPR $OLLI $ESTC $CIEN $CM $CD)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning August 28th, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

Hey guys, just throwing up next week's thread a little earlier than usual due to being very pressed for time today. May need to do it like this for the foreseeable future unfortunately. Hope you guys all have a great weekend and trading week ahead!!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, August the 28th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 8/28/23 - Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory
Mon, Aug 28, 2023

After the first positive week of August, stocks are looking to close out the month on a positive note as we head into September on Friday. It's a slow day for data today, but we'll have a number of important reports throughout the week with Consumer Confidence, a ton of labor related reports, GDP, and the ISM Manufacturing report. It's also the last week of August heading into Labor Day weekend, so there could be air pockets to the upside and downside throughout the week.

Well, it started out as a good day for Chinese stocks. After last week’s “15-minute rally”, Chinese stocks kicked off the week with a 5%+ surge at the open following news that the government would cut the tax on trading and limit the supply of IPOs. The point of maximum optimism was the opening print, though, and from there, the CSI 300 sold off and finished right near the lows of the day. It was still a positive day with a gain of over 1%, but as far as 1% rallies go, this was one of the more disheartening ones.



As far as 5%+ opening gaps are concerned, they don’t occur very often. Today’s was the first since July 2015 and just the seventh since 2005. Besides the one in July 2015, the other five all occurred during 2008.



The chart below shows the performance of the CSI 300 since 2005 with red dots showing each of the prior days that the CSI 300 had a 5% gap at the open. While three occurred near the lows in 2008, the others came in the middle of major legs lower. It’s also worth noting that of the seven 5%+ gaps in the CSI 300 (including today’s), four of them were followed by declines of at least 4% from the open to close.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, August 28th, 2023.

 

hey guys! as i'm sure some of you might've noticed it recently, but this site has very recently had its homepage revamped!

i threw up a quick thread to the water cooler if you guys wanted to give it a quick read here:

https://stonkforums.myvnc.com/forums/index.php?threads/stonkforums-homepage-revamped.1985/

feel free to let me know how it's looking. my hope is that i haven't totally overwhelmed the homepage with this recent change!

 

oh and @George Robles and @OldFart y'all's rock for saying that!!

good to have you here @George Robles (i'm assuming you came over here from my reddit message the other day haha). awesome!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, August the 29th, 2023!