Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for July 24th - 28th

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of July 24th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:



Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Earnings: Alphabet, Anadarko Petroleum, Celanese, Halliburton, Illinois Tool Works, Luxottica, Stanley Black and Decker, Ryanair, Arconic, Manpower Group, VF Corp

9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

• Tuesday

FOMC meeting begins

Earnings: 3M, Caterpillar, McDonald's, United Technologies, General Motors, Eli Lilly, Biogen, Amgen, AT&T, Chipotle, U.S. Steel, Express Scripts, Kimberly-Clark, Freeport-McMoran, Seagate Technology, JetBlue, TransUnion, T. Rowe Price, Akamai, Texas Instruments

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

10:00 am. Richmond Fed survey

• Wednesday

Earnings: Facebook, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Gilead Sciences, PayPal, Samsung, Discover Financial, Northrop Grumman, Nasdaq OMX, Hershey, Corning, DR Horton, Daimler, Ford, LVMH, Anthem, General Dynamics, Norfolk Southern, State Street, Six Flags, F5Networks, Vertex Pharma, Whole Foods

9:45 a.m. Services PMI

10:00 a.m. New home sales

2:00 p.m. FOMC statement

• Thursday

Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Starbucks, MasterCard, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Fiat Chrysler, Verizon, Comcast, Twitter, Altria, A-B InBev, AstraZeneca, Royal Dutch Shell, UPS, Total, Raytheon, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Southwest Air, Dunkin Brands, Deutsche Bank, Diageo, Nokia, Mattel, Boston Beer, Expedia, Brunswick, Baidu

8:30 a.m. Initial claims

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators

10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies

11:00 a.m. Kansas City Fed survey

• Friday

Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Merck, American Airlines, AbbVie, Barclays, UBS, Baker Hughes, BT Group, Cabot Oil and Gas, BNP Paribas, TransCanada, Credit Suisse, Weyerhaeuser, Nomura, CMS Energy

8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q2

9:30 a.m. Employment cost index

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

 

Traders 'Stunned' As Nasdaq Fails To Rise, Debt-Ceiling Despair Inverts Yield Curve
As Stocks soared...


And today...


The day started off badly with -- European stocks fell to the lowest level in 10 days as concern about potential antitrust collusion sent carmakers toward the worst decline in more than a year. Euro Stoxx 600 has now erased all the gains from the French Election euphoria...





Nasdaq failed to achieve its 11th day in a row of gains as early European weakness was just too much for the machines to overcome... though they tried... (11 days would have been the longest winning streak since July 2009) Dow ended the week red, Trannies worst week since Brexit



LPL's Ryan Detrick notes that the Nasdaq has been up for 10 consecutive sessions for the first time since Feb ’15. Since 1980, this has happened 21 other times, and the next month on average for Nasdaq was +2.6%, higher 16 of those 21 times overall.

VIX was clubbed to new lows in an effort to pump up stocks and go for the 11th daily win... but failed...



VIX closed at 9.31!! That is the lowest weekly VIX close in history



Utes were the week's best-performing sector (not exactly growthy) and financials worst...





FANG Stocks are up 11 days in a row and had their best week since Oct 2016 (thanks to NFLX) and the best 2-week gains (11%!) since July 2015





Bonds and Stocks recoupled this week...





As a reminder this has been an epic short-squeeze - the last time shorts were this low was at the peak for the S&P in Q2007...





Treasury yields tumbled this week... first weekly close lower in yields in the last 4 (2nd biggest weekly yield decline in 4 months)





With 10Y back below 2.25% back to pre-Fed-rate-hike levels...





The yield curve flattened dramatically this week - 2s10s down 9bps - biggest drop since the first week of 2017





Debt Ceiling concerns are really beginning to accelerate in short-term debt markets...





h/t @macropabst



The Dollar Index was crushed this week, down 1% for the second week in a row to its lowest since May 2016.





The Euro was the week's best performer among the majors (nearing 1.17 - highest weekly close since Jan 2015)...Cable was weakest this week.





We note that in general it is tracking last year's post-Dec-rate-hike trajectory...



The problem is - there is no Trump Effect to levitate the dollar in H2 this time. The Dollar is on target for the 6th monthly drop in the last 7.

Gold is up 6 days in a row (9 of the last 10), breaking above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving-averages...



This is gold's best week in 3 months...





WTI Crude closed the week back at a $45 handle (down for the 7th week in the last 9)... as OPEC supply is projected to hit 2017 highs





Bitcoin soared 25% this week - its biggest rise since Brexit...





Finally, there's this...



Have a great weekend 'Murica!

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Charge Of The Light Brigade

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As you I discussed last week, we added risk exposure to portfolios with the breakout to new highs that came in conjunction with a short-term “buy signal” as shown below.




However, when we zoom out a bit, a different picture emerges. Note that in all 3-cases, there was a “Stage-1 Advance” followed by a correction which led to a “Stage-2 Advance.” The correction that followed then provided for the final bullish advance which I call the “Charge Of The Light Brigade.”




The “Charge of the Light Brigade” was a charge of British light cavalry led by Lord Cardigan against Russian forces during the Battle of Balaclava in 1854, during the Crimean War. Lord Raglan, the overall commander of the British forces, had intended to send the Light Brigade to prevent the Russians removing captured guns from overrun Turkish positions, a task well-suited to light cavalry. However, due to miscommunication in the chain of command, the Light Brigade was instead sent on a frontal assault against a different artillery battery, one well-prepared with excellent fields of defensive fire.

Although the Light Brigade reached the battery under withering direct fire and scattered some of the gunners, the badly mauled brigade was forced to retreat immediately. Thus, the assault ended with very high British casualties and no decisive gains. War correspondent William Russell, who witnessed the battle, declared:



“Our Light Brigade was annihilated by their own rashness, and by the brutality of a ferocious enemy.”

This current set up is very much like what faced the British Calvary. A market is that overly bullish, overly complacent and overly valued has already had horrible outcomes for those that charged headlong into it.

Simon Maierhofer recently noted much the same in a recent article:



“The blue arrows in the updated chart below show where the S&P 500 is currently within the larger bull market cycle.”





“Regardless of where exactly the market’s at, a correction is getting closer. The initial correction will likely be a wave 4 correction (see labels). Waves 4 are notoriously choppy and frustrating. This choppy correction should be followed by another rally (wave 5) and a more pronounced drop (likely late 2017 or early 2018).

In a nutshell, although the S&P 500 is unlikely to make net progress in the coming year, there will be an opportunity for investors to lock in profits (at higher prices) and avoid a significant draw down.”

I agree with Simon. Whether it is sooner, or later, the current run-up in stocks will end very much the same as they always have with investors “annihilated by their own rashness and the brutality of a ferocious enemy.”

For now, investors race forward with swords drawn, shouting the “bull market passive indexing” battle cry in the face of insurmountable odds solely with a conviction of invincibility.

But such is the nature of every bull market cycle in throughout history.

In the meantime, this is what I am reading.

Politics/Fed/Economy

• The Imperial City’s Fiscal Waterloo by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
• GDP Growth Rates Continue To Fall by James Picerno via Capital Spectator
• Repeal & Replace Falls Flat On Its Face by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• Thoughts On Full Employment & The Asset Based Recovery by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
• Rosenberg: Warning Signs Are Bubbling In The Economy by David Rosenberg via Gluskin-Sheff
• Is The Economy Really Different This Time by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners
• 4-Signs The Economy Is Stalling by Stephen McBride via Mauldin Economics
• The False Premise Of GOP Tax Cuts by Editorial via New York Times
• The Fed Has Hit The Pause Button by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
• Fed Does Brutal Take-Down Of Trump’s Budget by Pedro Da Costa via BI
• All Signs Point To Slowdown In Inflation by Lakshman Achuthan via Bloomberg
• Occupational Hazards by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• The Quiet Demise Of Austerity by James McCormack via Project Syndicate

Markets

• The Smell Of Dry Paint In The Morning by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
• Real Reason Stocks Are Hitting Records by Brian Maher via The Daily Reckoning
• History & Gravity Aren’t On The Side Of Stocks by Sue Chang via MarketWatch
• Stock Picking Dying Due To Dearth Of Stocks by Jason Zweig via WSJ
• Perfect Market Indicator Says Sell Now by Mark Kolakowski via Investopedia
• 10-Years Later Bull Market Shows No Signs Of Ending by Michael Santoli via CNBC
• Forecasting Recessions Can Boost Returns by Simon Constable via US News
• The Single Biggest Market Risk by Hedgeye
• Bull Market Still Has Legs by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• Market Is Believing The Fed For Now by Conrad de Aenlle via NT Times
• One Reason Expensive Stocks Can Continue To Climbs by Anora Mahmudova via MarketWatch
• Stocks Will Top Out In 3-Weeksby Avi Gilburt via MarketWatch
• Here’s Why The Stock Market Isn’t Overpriced by Bob Pisani via CNBC
• Stock Market Bulls Are Wrong, It Will End Badly by Doug Kass via The Street

Research / Interesting Reads

• Did London Just Press The “Brexit” Panic Buttonby Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
• The Logic Of Patience (Investing) by Value Investor India
• Do You Need $1 Million To Retire by Maurie Backman via Motley Fool
• A Chat With Peter Bernsteinby Jason Zweig via Intelligent Investor
• We’re Not Prepared For The Next Recession by Mark Thoma via Fiscal Times
• 7-Habits To Help Your Kids Be Successful by Vanessa McGrady via Forbes
• 50% Of American Homeowners Have Buyer’s Remorse by Abigail Summerville via CNBC
• Economy Set To Break Two Records, Only One Is Good by Pedro Da Costa via BI
• Every Seven Years by Scott Galloway via L2 Daily
• A Fanatic Is Someone Who Won’t Change Their Mind by Cliff Asness via AQR Capital Management
• 5-Surprising Facts About “Made In America” by Irina Ivanova via MoneyWatch
• Tennis Legend “Boris Becker” Bankrupt by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• Wrecking Ball by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• Are Investors Too “Bulled” Up by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
• Wear Your Twitter Trolls Like A Badge Of Honor by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

““Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” – Sir John Templeton

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-


S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Typical July Sells Off After 13th Trading Day

Today’s softness in the market lines up quite well with the typical July seasonal trading pattern. Based upon July’s recent 21-year performance chart DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have all tracked closely to the historic pattern and today, the 14th trading day of July, has been frequently been the beginning of the summer soft spot. It is also worth reminding you that the first nine trading days of August are notoriously weak.

In the updated chart above I have highlighted this midsummer inflection point with circles and arrows for clarity. While it is encouraging that all the major US averages have just hit new all-time highs and done so many times this year. This is usually the time when markets are prone to a retreat. Throw in DC probes, investigations and presidential legal battles on top of tepid fundamentals, frothy sentiment and an overbought, cantilevered market; we are ripe for a fall.

Trump’s First Six Months
Jul 20, 2017

It may be hard to believe, but depending on your perspective and/or political bent, it has already (or only) been six months since President Trump’s inauguration in January. With that in mind, we looked to see how the stock market’s return under Trump’s tenure stacks up relative to that of other US Presidents since the start of 1900. Have stock market returns really been as “yuge” as purported to be? The table and chart below help to answer that question, as it shows the historical returns of the DJIA during each President’s first six months in office.

There are a number of ways to interpret these results, but in the broadest sense, the 9.1% return of the DJIA during Trump’s first six months in office is really nothing to write home about. Of the 20 Presidents shown in the table and chart, Trump only outperforms the overall median (8.4) by less than one percentage point. Furthermore, plenty of other Presidents have seen much stronger returns during their first six months in office. The DJIA rose 92.5% during FDR’s first six months, while Taft and Hoover both saw the DJIA rally more than 20%. Even more recently, three of the last four US Presidents saw a stronger rally by the DJIA than Trump during their first six months in office. The only recent President to see a smaller gain in his first six months in office was the second President Bush.

While the DJIA’s performance under President Trump is right in line with the historical norm, it is much better than past Republicans. As shown at the bottom of the table, the median return of the DJIA for all Republican Presidents during their first six months in office was a decline of 0.6%, so Trump is outperforming here by a wide margin. Additionally, in the post-WWII period, the only Republican President that presided over a bigger gain in his first six months was the first President Bush. So far at least, the stock market’s performance during the President’s first six months in office compares more closely to the 10.3% median return that the DJIA has seen during the first six months of Democratic terms.

Finally, we would make note of two things. First, one could easily argue that the 9.1% gain so far under Trump is understated since the DJIA rallied “bigly” in the period from the election through the inauguration. That’s definitely true, but it’s hard to measure returns in this manner, since a number of Presidents listed weren’t actually elected. (i.e., Johnson, Ford, etc) Long story short, this is an imperfect way to measure returns, but it’s still standard across all Presidents. The second thing to note, of course, is that returns during a President’s first six months in office don’t always mean there are more gains to come! Take the first President Bush, for example. In his first six months in office, the DJIA rallied 15.2%; however, by the end of his term, the US economy was in a recession.



Tech At New Highs And The Nasdaq Up 10 In A Row. Can It Keep Going?
Posted by lplresearch

After a rough June, technology has come roaring back with the S&P 500 Information Technology Index finally clearing its March 2000 peak and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index up 10 days in a row for the first time since early 2015. The obvious question is: Can this potentially continue? We think so.

First things first; it took the S&P 500 Information Technology Index 4,354 days to clear its March 27, 2000 closing high, but it finally did on Wednesday, July 26. Here’s the catch. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Some might think because tech is at new highs this means we are in a bubble, but we would disagree. Tech is 42% away from a real high if you factor in inflation, meaning there still could be plenty of room to run. Not to mention earnings are strong and valuations are still modest, a recipe for higher longer-term prices in our book.”



Tech has been strong recently, but on a longer-term basis relative to the S&P 500 Index, it took years to get over the tech bubble hangover. As the chart below shows, tech isn’t as extended as it might seem and could continue to be a major driver of equity gains.



Last, yesterday (July 20) the Nasdaq closed in the green for the tenth day in a row. This is significant, as history would suggest near-term strength could continue. In fact, since 1980, the Nasdaq has gained 2.6% on average during the month following a 10-day win streak versus an average monthly return of 1.0%. Looking at this same period, three months later things became more normal. Over the next several weeks though, the bulls could still be in charge.



You Are Here
Posted by lplresearch

It has been a great start to 2017, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 11% year to date, but be aware that the index has, on average, peaked near here going back the past 20 years before regrouping for a fourth quarter run-up. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “The first half of July has been strong. Check that off for working in 2017, but be aware that the S&P 500 has tended to peak around now and the next few months can be tricky.”



The first half of the year has been stronger than usual, but given that this is the longest stretch the S&P 500 has gone without a 5% correction in more than 20 years, we would expect some second-half volatility. In other words, the next couple months could look more like the average of the past 20 years, but that potentially sets up a better buying opportunity.

Emerging Markets: Early Innings or Late in the Game?
Posted by lplresearch

It has been a great year so far for Emerging Markets (EM), with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up nearly 19%, approximately doubling the returns of the S&P 500 Index. Here’s the catch: For years now we’ve seen some big bounces in EM, but in the end the rallies disintegrate and those expecting a major change in trend are left battered and disappointed. The good news is this rally looks like it could just be getting started.

Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Emerging markets have benefitted year to date from the surprise U.S. Dollar weakness, very strong earnings, and modest valuations. But investors want to know if this rally is still in the early innings or closer to the ninth. One major positive suggesting it’s early in the game is that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is in the process of breaking out of a bearish trendline going back nearly 10 years, suggesting a major change in trend is taking place and EM could score more runs.”



EM is a group we have liked for over a year now, and we continue to think it may be a good place for potential alpha in a well-diversified portfolio. It won’t be a smooth ride (EM rarely is), but as we discussed in our Midyear Outlook 2017, this is an area that should continue to outscore the other teams (i.e. asset classes) over the balance of this year and maybe even longer than that.

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 7.21.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 7.24.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 7.24.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 7.25.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 7.25.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 7.26.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 7.26.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 7.27.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 7.27.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 7.28.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 7.28.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

 

TSMFers come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (7/24-7/28) <-- click there to cast your weekly vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (7/24-7/28) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (7/24) <-- click there to cast your daily vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Here is this week's global economic and policy calendar-

 

Here are the most anticipated earnings releases for this upcoming week ahead:
($AMD $FB $AMZN $GOOGL $TWTR $HAL $CMG $X $LRCX $PYPL $T $F $AKS $GILD $MCD $GM $BA $HAS $INTC $SBUX $WDC)


Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $13.88
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, July 25, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $1.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 75.00% with revenue increasing by 12.95%. Short interest has increased by 21.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.5% above its 200 day moving average of $11.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 14, 2017 there was some notable buying of 41,379 contracts of the $17.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 12.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.8% move in recent quarters.


Facebook Inc. $164.43
Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, July 26, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.13 per share on revenue of $9.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.95% with revenue increasing by 42.48%. Short interest has decreased by 3.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.8% above its 200 day moving average of $136.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 54,309 contracts of the $185.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.


Amazon.com, Inc.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, July 27, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.38 per share on revenue of $37.20 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.43 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 22.47% with revenue increasing by 22.35%. Short interest has decreased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.8% above its 200 day moving average of $863.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,080 contracts of the $1,100.00 call expiring on Friday, July 28, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

Alphabet, Inc. $993.84
Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, July 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $8.17 per share on revenue of $20.83 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $8.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.89% with revenue decreasing by 3.12%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.7% above its 200 day moving average of $866.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,385 contracts of the $1,050.00 call expiring on Friday, July 28, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.


Twitter, Inc. $20.11
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, July 27, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of $536.65 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 64.29% with revenue decreasing by 10.85%. The stock has drifted higher by 26.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.7% above its 200 day moving average of $17.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 22,710 contracts of the $17.00 put expiring on Friday, July 28, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 10.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.


Halliburton Co $44.38
Halliburton Co (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Monday, July 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $4.84 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.20 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 235.71% with revenue increasing by 26.21%. Short interest has increased by 56.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.1% below its 200 day moving average of $49.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,392 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc $345.34
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, July 25, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.16 per share on revenue of $1.19 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 148.28% with revenue increasing by 19.19%. Short interest has decreased by 25.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.8% below its 200 day moving average of $420.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,266 contracts of the $385.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.


United States Steel Corp. $23.68
United States Steel Corp. (X) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, July 25, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.46 per share on revenue of $2.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 248.39% with revenue increasing by 15.71%. Short interest has increased by 58.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.3% below its 200 day moving average of $28.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 13,589 contracts of the $27.00 call expiring on Friday, July 28, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.2% move in recent quarters.


Lam Research Corp. $163.53
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, July 26, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.02 per share on revenue of $2.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 86% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.88 to $3.12 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 67.78% with revenue increasing by 49.39%. The stock has drifted higher by 22.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.1% above its 200 day moving average of $123.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,769 contracts of the $130.00 put expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.


PayPal $58.67
PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, July 26, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.43 per share on revenue of $3.10 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.41 to $0.43 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.44% with revenue increasing by 16.98%. Short interest has increased by 3.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.1% above its 200 day moving average of $44.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 9,222 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

 

ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.23.17 - Which 2 IBD50 Stocks are in Buy Zone?
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

'Morning fellas!

I'm running a little late here but here are your morning market movers & news on this Monday morning-

• 7/24 Monday Market Movers & News <-- click there to view!

What's on everyone's radar for today? Hope you all have a great trading day!

 

wow, i completely missed that one! had it closed below 9.31 today i think would have set an ATL close for the vix