Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for July 17th - 21st

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of July 17th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:



Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

T.B.A.

 

that e-mail of yours the other day was the clincher for me @tbw875 haha

as was @Timbo's a few weeks back as well.

i honestly wasn't sure if this was going to be such a grand idea, but you guys totally won me over to do this.

looking forward to seeing where this goes

 

wow i missed a lot of the action today because of this new site lol ... i need to check up on this to confirm it but that vix 9.51 looks like could be the lowest "close" ever?

i agree @stock1234 looks like this could just keep grinding higher for a bit while longer ... this market is so resilient!

looks like all the major indices closed at new ATHs today for the exception of the nasdaq which just missed it by a few handles!

 

haha, i guess next week's weekly thread has already gotten underway! my bad guys

i won't overwhelm y'alls this week with all the posts that usually follow after that 1st post

i'll just post this up in here ... these are the % changes for the major indices for the week/month/quarter/year-

 

Here are the most anticipated earnings releases for this upcoming week ahead:
($NFLX $BAC $MSFT $GS $BLK $JNJ $IBM $UNH $GE $LMT $V $BX $CSX $QCOM $HOG $PGR $CMA $SWKS $MS $UAL $AMTD)


Netflix, Inc. $161.12
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, July 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $2.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.15 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 77.78% with revenue increasing by 31.10%. Short interest has increased by 2.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $137.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 12, 2017 there was some notable buying of 11,927 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.


Bank of America Corp. $24.21
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Tuesday, July 18, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.43 per share on revenue of $22.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.44% with revenue decreasing by 2.99%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.1% above its 200 day moving average of $22.19. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 10, 2017 there was some notable buying of 50,446 contracts of the $27.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.4% move in recent quarters.


Microsoft Corp. $72.78
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, July 20, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $24.19 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.90% with revenue increasing by 17.35%. Short interest has decreased by 6.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.5% above its 200 day moving average of $64.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 14, 2017 there was some notable buying of 23,046 contracts of the $76.00 call expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.


Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $228.60
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Tuesday, July 18, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.51 per share on revenue of $7.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.58 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.65% with revenue increasing by 0.48%. Short interest has increased by 1.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% above its 200 day moving average of $220.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 30, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,317 contracts of the $240.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.


BlackRock, Inc. $438.34
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, July 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.39 per share on revenue of $3.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.38 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.76% with revenue increasing by 6.99%. Short interest has increased by 26.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.5% above its 200 day moving average of $382.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 10, 2017 there was some notable buying of 964 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.6% move in recent quarters.


Johnson & Johnson $132.60
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, July 18, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.79 per share on revenue of $18.91 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.82 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.70% with revenue increasing by 2.32%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.8% above its 200 day moving average of $120.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 10, 2017 there was some notable buying of 13,056 contracts of the $131.00 put expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 2.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.


International Business Machines Corp. $154.24
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, July 18, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.73 per share on revenue of $19.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 7.46% with revenue decreasing by 3.84%. Short interest has increased by 14.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% below its 200 day moving average of $162.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,422 contracts of the $145.00 put expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.


UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $186.90
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, July 18, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.38 per share on revenue of $50.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 21.43% with revenue increasing by 7.60%. Short interest has increased by 2.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.8% above its 200 day moving average of $162.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 12, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,003 contracts of the $170.00 put expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.


General Electric Co. $26.78
General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Friday, July 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $29.14 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.26 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 50.98% with revenue decreasing by 13.00%. The stock has drifted lower by 11.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $29.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 29, 2017 there was some notable buying of 20,262 contracts of the $29.00 call expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.4% move in recent quarters.


Lockheed Martin Corp. $288.13
Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:25 AM ET on Tuesday, July 18, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.09 per share on revenue of $12.47 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.93% with revenue decreasing by 3.44%. Short interest has increased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.1% above its 200 day moving average of $261.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

 

Key Earnings to Watch Next Week
Jul 14, 2017

Using our Interactive Earnings Calendar, below is a list of the 40 largest companies set to report earnings next week. On Monday we kick things off with Blackrock (BLK) in the morning and Netflix (NFLX) after the close. JNJ, Bank of America (BAC), Goldman (GS), and IBM are the biggest names on deck for Tuesday, while Morgan Stanley (MS), Qualcomm (QCOM), and American Express (AXP) take the lead on Wednesday. Thursday is the busiest day next week with companies like Microsoft (MSFT), eBay (EBAY), Visa (V), and Travelers (TRV) set to report, and then General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), and Schlumberger (SLB) close out the week on Friday.

Of the stocks listed below, Lockheed Martin (LMT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Visa (V) have historically beaten earnings estimates at the highest rate (all above 90%), while Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has historically reacted the most positively on its earnings reaction day (far right column). Bank of America (BAC), IBM, and Capital One (COF) have historically reacted the most negatively on their earnings reaction days.

 

nasdaq just missed joining in on the new high party by about 10 handles earlier ... overall pretty choppy as of now as was to be expected as earnings season begins in earnest this week

here are some of the most actives heading into the lunch hour on this monday:

• AUPH
• CBAY
• NFLX
• HTZ
• EDIT
• TSLA
• RDUS
• FCX
• YRD
• RLJ
• PRTK
• JKS
• ENDP
• APRN
• VMW
• PG
• ULTA
• LNTH
• SHOP
• AMC
• CENX
• YORW
• HDP
• BIDU

and here is the market heat map as of 11:40am eastern:

 

And so it begins! Here are the upcoming ERs AMC today and BMO tomorrow:
($NFLX $BAC $GS $JNJ $UNH $LMT $HOG $PGR $CMA $AMTD $SCSS $NVS $PLD $MDSO $BRO $SNV $NEOG $ELS)

 

chop city not too much in the way going on today which is not surprising but things should get a bit more interesting later in the week with all of the big ERs coming out ... worth noting that vix is spending basically the entire day in the 9s today which pretty much sums things up ... if not for that opening print at 10 this would have been historical for me ... i don't think i ever recall the vix open/high/low/close in the single digits for the entire trading day

barring some external shock event, looks like we'll remain choppy for the most part ... probably be like this through the end of this month at the very least is my guess ... after such a huge week that we had last week some pause here make sense until the next big move