Stock Market Today: September 4th - 8th, 2023

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, September the 7th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/7/23 - More September Weakness
Thu, Sep 7, 2023

Trade disputes and the potential for moving towards more closed borders on commerce has weighed on futures this morning. Futures are down across the board, but the Nasdaq is taking it hardest as additional restrictions on Apple iPhone usage for Chinese government employees could be coming. In the other direction, both the US and Europe are considering adding additional tariffs on Chinese steel imports.

On the economic side of things, Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs were both higher than expected, and jobless claims came in lower than expected on both an initial and continuing basis. That kind of data won’t do much to weigh down interest rates, but it will certainly pressure stock prices.

Given its reputation, September has started just how you would expect it to. While the S&P 500 barely avoided finishing the first three trading days of the month down 1%, the Nasdaq finished down 1.16% month to date yesterday. The chart below shows the index’s performance during the first three trading days of the month for all years since 1971, and the red bars indicate years that the index was down 1%+. As shown, 1%+ declines in the first three trading days haven’t been particularly uncommon, especially in the last six years.



So, does a bad start to September for the Nasdaq mean anything with respect to the rest of the month? The table below lists each year that the Nasdaq was down 1%+ in the first three trading days of the month. For each year, we also show the index’s YTD performance heading into the month along with its performance for the remainder of the month. Of the sixteen prior years shown, the Nasdaq’s average change for the rest of the month was a decline of 2.85% (median: -3.70%) with gains less than a third of the time. That’s considerably worse than the 0.85% average decline for all years since 1971.

While it appears that months which start out poorly for the Nasdaq lead to further declines over the course of the rest of September, there is a caveat. If you look at the years when the Nasdaq was up over 10% heading into September but then traded down over 1% in the first three trading days, performance wasn’t nearly as bad. In fact, the S&P 500’s average rest of month performance was a gain of 0.61% (median: 1.56%) with positive returns four out of seven times.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, September 7th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, September the 8th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/8/23 - The Worst of Times and the Best of Times
Fri, Sep 8, 2023

After three down days in a row for the S&P 500 and four for the Nasdaq, futures suggest that bulls may end up going o-fer the week. While they are down, the magnitude of the losses at this point remains modest, so anything can happen. Crude oil prices are back to their winning ways this morning after yesterday's decline ended a nine-day winning streak, and treasury yields are basically flat on the day. It's a slow day for data and earnings, although NY Fed President Williams spoke last night and suggested that officials need to see more data before determining what to do with rates. At this point, a hike in September (or even November) looks highly unlikely.

September has historically been a weak month for stocks, but when it comes to seasonal market trends, as Charles Dickens may have put it, it’s a tale of two timeframes. The snapshot below comes from the Seasonality Tool on our website, and it shows the S&P 500’s median performance in the one and three months following the close on 9/8 based on the last ten years of trading.

In the month following the close on 9/8, the S&P 500’s median performance over the last ten years has been a decline of 0.62% which ranks in just the ninth percentile relative to all other rolling one-month periods. Not that we need to tell you, but that’s pretty bad.

While seasonal trends for the upcoming month have been poor, performance in the three months following the close on 9/8 have been among the best relative to any rolling three-month period throughout the year. As shown below, the median gain of 4.65% ranks in the 87th percentile relative to all other three-month periods throughout the year.

The stock market may be coming up on the best of times when it comes to the calendar, but to get there, it must get through the worst of times first.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, September 8th, 2023.