Stock Market Today: September 20th - 24th, 2021

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, September 21st, 2021.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a check on those futures as we are about 30 minutes from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, September the 22nd, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/22/21 - Same Futures, Different Day
Wed, Sep 22, 2021

After a day in which the S&P 500 finished trading right around the flatline after opening sharply higher, markets are doing a re-take today with futures higher by just about the same amount they were at this time yesterday. Unlike yesterday, though, investors will have to contend with a Fed policy statement, dot plots, and a press conference from Jerome Powell this afternoon. Powell pressers haven't had a particularly positive impact on the market lately.

Outside the US, equities in Europe are higher across the board this morning, and the STOXX 600 is actually now flat on the week after gains yesterday and today have erased all of Monday's drop. In China, equities finally opened for trading this week after a two-day mid-Autumn Festival holiday. While Chinese stocks opened the week lower, they rebounded throughout the day to finish down 0.70%. So, while Europe is flat and China is down less than 1% on the week, US stocks are down over 1.75%.

Lately, it seems as though plenty of good arguments can be made for being long or short the US dollar. Given the strong feelings on both sides of the trade, it probably shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that the Bloomberg US Dollar Index is currently trading right in the middle of its one year range around 1,150 and at a level it has had difficulty meaningfully breaking above throughout the year. Whichever way the greenback breaks from its most recent run to 1,150 will likely have a major impact on which sectors/strategies outperform through the end of the year.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, September 22nd, 2021.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a check on those futures as we are about 4 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, September the 23rd, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/23/21 - Some Positive Follow Through
Thu, Sep 23, 2021

If you're feeling a little bit like Phil Connors from the movie Groundhog Day this morning, you're not alone. For the third straight morning, futures on the Dow are trading higher by a bit over 200 points. Unlike Groundhog Day, though, the last two days ended in completely different ways. Whereas Tuesday's early morning rally was Ned Ryerson-ed and reversed by the end of the day, yesterday, equities were able to build on the early gains before pulling back during Chair Powell's press conference. Only time will tell what today's session will have in store.

It's a busy day for economic data this morning with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Flash PMIs, and the KC Fed Manufacturing report.

Readings on inflation, and just as importantly, inflation expectations, have been some of the most closely scrutinized economic data points lately. One way to track what consumers are thinking about inflation is through their actions online and more specifically, their internet searches. Below we show Google Trends search history for the term 'inflation" over the last five years. Earlier this year, as stimulus funds stoked consumer demand even as supply chains remained in flux, 'inflation' searches started to rapidly rise. They hit a five-year high in mid-February and didn't stop there. By early May, searches for the term inflation were at the highest levels since at least 2004. Unfortunately, there was no Google in the 1970s! From the peak reading in early May, search interest for inflation started to slow but remained elevated throughout the peak summer months. More recently, though, search interest has kept declining, and while still high relative to pre-2021 history, there were periods prior to 2021 where search interest for the term was actually higher. If this more recent trend of declining search interest continues, it would further support the Fed's forecast for recent inflation pressures to be 'transitory' in nature.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, September 23rd, 2021.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a check on those futures as we are about 3 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, September the 24th, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/24/21 - A Rally Sandwich
Fri, Sep 24, 2021

After a couple of good days where it appeared as though the market was putting some of the September headwinds behind it, it looks as though equities will close out the week on a down note causing a rally sandwich on a loaf of weakness. If the S&P 500 closes at current levels indicated by the futures market, we'll finish down for the week and back below the 50-DMA. The Russell 2000, however, is still on pace for a positive week provided current levels hold. Thursday's rally back above the 50-DMA for the S&P 500 was a moral victory for technicians, but if it doesn't hold today, it will mark the second straight week that the index closed below its 50-DMA.

As for where the major averages stand heading into today, the Russell 2000's sideways consolidation range remains intact and barring further weakness during the trading session, its 50-day moving average should continue to hold. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are another story, though, as both of these indices are on pace to open below those levels today. Technicians consider failed attempts to retake the 50-DMA to be a sign of underlying weakness, so that will be a trend to watch going forward.

 

Interesting bit of stat I just ran across in my super brief reads this afternoon. But, did you know that when the SPX doesn't violate the December lows in Q1, the rest of the trading year has historically been very positive (higher 94.3% of time). The SPX is up an average of 18.4% when the Dec low isn't violated in Q1. Can anyone guess how much we're up YTD thus far? If you guessed 18.4% as your first guess you'd be correct! Haha.



Anyway, I hope you all had a pretty decent trading week this week! I closed out all of my short s&p futures contracts on Monday (thankfully before that last hour short covering rally -- which as it turns out had marked the bottom of this pullback move for now lol).

Also, sorry if I haven't been super active posting wise in this thread this week. Had a lot of IRL things pop up that needed to be taken care of. Thus, I hardly had a chance to really monitor the market action much at all. I think next week may be the same as well unfortunately. But, really do greatly appreciate you keeping this thread going each day as always @stock1234!!!

Hope you have a wonderful weekend ahead!

Will catch up with you guys next week.

 

Here is a final look at the market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, September 24th, 2021. Have a wonderful weekend everyone!