Stock Market Today: September 11th - 15th, 2023

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, September the 13th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - Inflation Focus Shifts to Core - 9/13/23
Wed, Sep 13, 2023

Equity futures are taking a cautious tone heading into today's CPI report for August where headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.6% m/m (largest increase since June 2022) and 3.6% on a y/y basis. European equity market performance hasn't helped as most indices in the region are down by about 1% as the ECB is likely to hike rates this week by another 25 bps due to stubbornly high inflation. Not helping matters is the fact that economic data in the region including UK GDP and German Industrial Production both came in weaker than expected.

As we've noted numerous times in the past, the easy job has been done when it comes to headline inflation and getting it back down to levels more in line with the pre-COVID range will take time. In this morning's report, the focus will shift to core which is expected to rise by just 0.2% m/m taking the y/y reading down to 4.3%. If the report comes out in line with expectations, it would be the lowest y/y reading in Core CPI since September 2021, and it would also represent the largest decline in the y/y reading from a 12-month high since the early 1980s.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, September 13th, 2023.

 

Top of the afternoon StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, September the 14th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup -- 9/14/23
Thu, Sep 14, 2023

US equity futures are up slightly this morning as investors digest a surprise rate hike from the ECB and await a slug of economic data at 8:30 AM ET, including August Retail Sales, August PPI, and weekly Jobless Claims.

Markets continue to trade heavy and small-caps continue to underperform as we work our way through what has historically been the worst month of the year for stocks. As shown below, the Russell 2,000 closed below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time in months as a short-term head and shoulders pattern has formed.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, September 14th, 2023.

 

Top of the afternoon StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 4 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, September the 15th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/15/23 - Almost There
Fri, Sep 15, 2023

There’s still 20% of the trading week left, but we’re almost at the finish line. With all the hemming and hawing over how this week’s inflation data would be higher than expected given the surge in oil prices, the major averages are all on pace for a positive week. In September no less!

Equity index futures are generally higher, although the Nasdaq is basically unchanged, even as yields are higher again. The 2-year yield is back above 5% while the 10-year is above 4.3%. There’s a decent chunk of economic data to deal with even after the release of Import Prices and Empire Manufacturing which were both higher than expected. At 9:15, we'll get Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and then at 10, Michigan Sentiment will be the final release of the week..

Over in Europe, major benchmark indices in the region are sharply higher adding to what has been an already strong week. The STOXX 600 is on pace for a gain of over 2% despite an ECB rate hike that some said was a surprise but shouldn’t have been. The key reason for the optimism in Europe, though, is that there’s a very strong likelihood that the ECB is done for the current cycle after taking the benchmark rate to a record high.

As crude oil topped $90 per barrel for the first time since last November, it’s interesting to see how prices of natural gas have seen little movement. It used to be that the two commodities moved somewhat in unison with each other, but that has not been the case this year. As shown in the chart below, since crude oil really started to take off at the end of Q2 it has rallied more than 28%. Nat gas meanwhile not only hasn’t rallied, but it’s down over 3%!



As a result of the recent divergence between the two, the ratio of crude oil to natural gas has surged this year and currently sits at over 30. Besides earlier this year, the only time since 1990 that the ratio between the two was as high or higher was back in the period spanning late 2011 through early to mid- 2013.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, September 15th, 2023.

 

here's the early preview for next week's anticipated ERs per EW:

have a great weekend everyone!