Stock Market Today: October 9th - 13th, 2023

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are about 10 minutes from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, October the 10th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/10/23 - Does Three Make a Trend?
Tue, Oct 10, 2023

Global markets are picking up the rally where the US left off yesterday. Some of that positive tone is following through to US markets this morning, but equity futures are only modestly higher. Small business sentiment was modestly weaker than expected, and as discussed in this morning's report, has confirmed the message from a number of other indicators that the labor market is moderating. Bond yields are lower relative to Friday's close, but they have erased just about half of their initial declines.

In last week’s Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that through last Thursday, while most equity indices and other assets were all in steady downtrends over the last few weeks, the dollar was moving in the other direction and steadily rallying. Two trading days later (or one and a half if you consider the fact that Monday was a holiday for some), we’ve started to see a reversal of that trend as assets have been rallying and the dollar’s rally has taken a breather. The dollar’s weakness yesterday was even more notable given the geo-political tensions in the Middle East given the dollar's typical safe-haven status. It’s only been two days, but as the saying goes, once is random, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a trend.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, October 10th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are about 2 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, October the 11th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/11/23 - "PPHigher" Than Expected
Wed, Oct 11, 2023

US equity futures are pointing to the fourth day in a row of gains this morning as last week’s oversold levels, positive seasonals, and a lack of escalation in the Middle East have all contributed to the positive tone. The fact that US Treasury yields were sharply lower again after some non-hawkish commentary from Fed speakers like San Francisco President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has also helped. The only thing left to get through was PPI, but unfortunately, those numbers were on the hot side.

PPI for the month of September was just released, and the headline reading came in much higher than expected (+0.5% m/m vs 0.3% m/m expectations). The core reading also topped expectations at 0.3% compared to forecasts for a reading of 0.2%. Those readings took the year/year levels to 2.2% (versus 1.6% expectations) at the headline level and 2.7% on a core basis (2.3% expected).

As shown in the charts below, the move higher in headline PPI has sandwiched it right between its pre-COVID average of 1.7% dating back to November 2010 when the current iteration of Final Demand began and its overall average of 2.6%. On a core basis, September's reading of 2.7% is above its overall average of 2.6% and nearly a full percentage point above its pre-COVID average of 1.8%. There's still some work to do on the inflation front!

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, October 11th, 2023.

 

whoa... glad to hear they are okay! thanks for sharing that along. we've been seeing a higher rate of car accidents around our area here in charlotte as well. has never been this bad that i can remember, but there's definitely been a bit of a spike since COVID i think. fortunately i haven't personally been involved in that type of thing nor had any family that has. but, my folks do have some friends who have been involved in some pretty bad accidents that are still going through their recoveries as we speak. here's to all the best to you and your family @stock1234!

edit: wow sorry to hear that happened for you also oldie!

i really personally hate driving tbh lol. i used to have to make long distance drives back in the days when my nephew was much younger and i had to run a lot of errands for the sister and my folks, and while i was mostly alright with them, never really enjoyed it too much.

i've noticed there has been a bit of a bump of aggressive drivers lately. not sure what the deal is. but, does feel like things kinda changed since the past few years.. lots of reckless driving i've seen it's kinda scary sometimes ngl.

 

Good afternoon StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over 3 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, October the 12th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/12/23 - Happy Anniversary
Thu, Oct 12, 2023

Inflation data and the upcoming earnings season have been the short-term focus of investors lately, but from a long-term perspective, today markets the one-year anniversary of the bear market low from last year. While the S&P 500 remains below its highs from late July, it is still up over 20% from the closing low a year ago today. Happy Anniversary!

Yesterday’s data was the warmup, but today’s CPI report for the month of September is the main event in a market that has been hypersensitive to inflation data for several months now. As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500’s trailing 12-month average daily change on CPI days has been above 1% since August 2022 and peaked at just under 2% this January. The only other time since 2000, that the S&P 500 was more volatile on CPI days was at the height of the financial crisis from late 2008 and through 2009.

Over the last two months, the S&P 500’s change on CPI days has been much more toned down with a gain of just 0.03% following the July report in August and a gain of 0.12% after the August report last month. Those subdued readings have taken the 12-month average down to 1.11%, and unless the S&P 500 moves up or down 1.25% today, the 12-month average will fall back below 1%.



The September CPI report just hit the tape and the results came in generally higher than expected. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m versus forecasts for an increase of 0.3% while core CPI was right in line with forecasts. As you might expect, equity futures have given much of their earlier gains while rates are higher. Obviously, these higher-than-expected readings in yesterday's PPI and today's CPI show that the road to lower inflation is a windy one. Jobless claims were also just released, and initial claims were pretty much right in line with forecasts while continuing claims rose more than expected.

Similar to the charts we showed yesterday of the PPI relative to its historical average, below we show how current levels of headline and core CPI on a year/year basis stack up relative to history. At the headline level, the current level of 3.7% is below its 50-year average reading of 4.0% but still above its 25 and 10-year averages of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. On a core basis, the picture is even worse with the current level of 4.1% above its 50 (4.0%), 25 (2.5%), and 10 (2.7%) year averages.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, October 12th, 2023.