Stock Market Today: October 16th - 20th, 2023

well, yes and no

technically i never "left" per say, but also as oldie kinda alluded to, the bot account is malfunctioning again and i kinda don't have the time to fix it so i've been coming on to do the updates manually again for the time being.

while i'm back posting the updates manually again, i'm still not really following the market action closely much at all. just coming on to update the threads that's about it

hope you guys have been doing amazing! i'm hopeful as we inch closer to "holiday season" that my IRL (in real life) will begin to calm down for me and i can again enjoy following the markets like the good 'ole days, and maybe even put on a trade or two

thx bigly time for all you guys do to keep this thread and the boards in general active!! can't say this enough. y'all's are the bestest.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 30 minutes into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, October the 19th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/19/23
Thu, Oct 19, 2023

With complete dysfunction in Washington, we’re all suffering the consequences of politicians. The continuing resolution keeping the government open expires on 11/17, and besides the geo-political turmoil around the world that needs to be addressed, the longer Republicans in the House go without reaching an agreement on who to elect as speaker, the more likely it is that we reach that mid-November deadline without a budget agreement. As easy as it is to complain about the incompetence in DC, though, Thomas Jefferson was right when he said, “The government you elect is the government you deserve.”

After a disheartening session on Wednesday, things aren’t looking all that positive this morning. Nasdaq futures are the lone bright spot following a positive reaction to Netflix (NFLX) earnings as the stock is poised to gap up over 13%. Tesla (TSLA), however, is moving in the opposite direction as the stock is trading down over 7% following a weak report that showed compressed margins and some downright somber commentary from Elon Musk. S&P 500 futures are essentially flat, and Dow futures are low.

Outside of equities, crude oil is trading down by about 1%, gold is slightly lower, the dollar is mixed, and bitcoin is modestly higher. The real action this morning, however, is in the Treasury market, where yields are higher across the curve with the biggest upside moves coming the further out you go as the 10-year yield is up over 7 basis points to just under 5% (4.98%). 5%!

On the economic calendar, jobless claims will be released at 8 AM, and are expected to remain right around the same levels as last week. Along with those numbers, the Philly Fed Manufacturing report will also be released at 8:30 (expectations are for a modest increase) and Existing Home Sales will hit the tap at 10:00. On the jobless claims front, initial claims were lower than expected while continuing claims came in modestly ahead of forecasts but at the highest level since June. Philly Fed was modestly weaker than expected and came in negative at the headline level for the 13th time in the last 14 months. Besides those numbers, Fed Chair Powell will speak at noon along with five other Fed officials throughout the day. Depending on their messages, it could be a pivotal day.

Admittedly, there's not a lot of positives out there this morning, but we'll give you two. First, while today's date is October 19th, it's not October 19th, 1987. Second, despite oil prices hovering near $90 per barrel, gas prices have been falling hard. As shown in the chart below, the national average price of a gallon currently sits at $3.565, according to AAA, and that's the lowest price since July. You know what that means? More money to go inside and grab a bag of Doritos, a Big Gulp, and if you're really adventurous, one of those things on the hot rollers!



Over the last month, national average gas prices are down just over 8% which is the largest 30-day decline of the year and ranks in in the lowest decile of 30-day returns dating back to 2005.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, October 19th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 30 minutes into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, October the 20th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/20/23 - For What It's Worth
Fri, Oct 20, 2023

A negative week is looking to end on a negative note as equity futures are lower following the declines in Asia overnight and Europe this morning (although those were mostly follow-through from yesterday afternoon's weakness here in the US). Given the likely escalation, or at least a continuation of the war in the Middle East, it's hard to blame anyone for not wanting to take on added risk into the weekend. If there's one silver lining, the 10-year yield briefly touched 5% overnight but has since pulled back (for now). The economic calendar is quiet for today, and there are just two Fed speakers scheduled to speak (Harker and Mester)

“There’s something happening here, but what it is ain’t exactly clear.“ Investors have a tendency to take every recent market event and interpret it as “the most important” this or that. When it comes to various asset classes in recent days, though, we have seen some MAJOR moves, and we couldn’t help but think of the above lyrics from Buffalo Springfield's "For What It's Worth" after going through them.

First, crude oil. While still off its highs from just a few weeks ago, the 9.1% five-trading day rally in WTI ranks in the 96th percentile of all five-day periods since 1983.



Second, the 10-year US Treasury yield. In what looks like a chart of an internet stock from the late 1990s, yields have been on a one-way move for what seems like forever now. In just the last five trading days, the 10-year yield is up 29 basis points (bps) and right near 5%. Going back to 1983, that ranks in the 97th percentile of all five-day moves in the 10-year yield.



Finally, gold. In the same five trading days through Thursday’s close, gold rallied 5.5% breaking above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages as well as the downtrend that has been in place since the Spring. The magnitude of the rally also ranks in the 98th percentile of all five-day moves since 1983. Not bad for a commodity that was just trading at six-month lows two weeks ago!



By themselves, these moves over the last week are big, but the fact that they’ve all occurred in the same five-day period is extraordinary. Since 1983, when data for all three asset classes is available, there have only been two other periods where gold and crude oil each rallied more than 5% while the 10-year yield jumped more than 25 basis points (bps). The first was in August 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait which led up to the first Gulf War, while the second period was during the Financial Crisis when there were three separate occurrences (September 2008, January 2009, and March 2009). Both periods were seminal in US history for years to come, but the market impact varied. 1990 was no walk in the park, but it left a much smaller scar on the market than the Financial Crisis.

Now, just because we’ve had big moves again this time around doesn’t tell us anything about where the market is going in the future, but when you simultaneously see such large moves in different asset classes, it's hard not to think "there’s something happening".

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, October 20th, 2023.

 

Here is a quick preview of next week's notable earnings releases courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Have a great weekend everyone!