1. U.S. Futures


Stock Market Today: November 13th - 17th, 2023

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Nov 8, 2023.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of November 13th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    S&P Sectors End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    (N/A.)
     
    #1 bigbear0083, Nov 8, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2023
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Big-Tech & Bitcoin Bid; Bonds, Bullion, & Biggest-Shorts Battered As Sentiment Slumps
    FRIDAY, NOV 10, 2023 - 04:00 PM

    It was a quiet week for macro data, but what there was 'disappointed' - higher continuing claims, worst deficit, slumping sentiment, and soaring inflation expectations...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But the 'bad news' sent investors fleeing into the 'safe-haven' arms of the Magnificent 7 once again, eschewing gold and bonds...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Powell put his foot down on the 'loosening' financial conditions since his FOMC performance...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Mega-Cap Tech (Nasdaq) outperformed Small Caps (Russell 2000) every day this week, ending up almost 600bps stronger Friday-to-Friday - the second biggest weekly outperformance since April 2020 and the melt-up on the back of The Fed's COVID lockdown rescue. The Dow closed marginally green and S&P up around 1% (closing above 4400)...

    [​IMG]

    ...and while Nasdaq soared (best day since May), its breadth continued to plumb new depths...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The S&P closed back above 4400 - closing the gap from the big plunge after September's FOMC...

    [​IMG]

    The Magnificent 7 stocks are up for 10 of the last 11 days, adding a stunning $1.3 trillion in market cap during that time to the highest since the July highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    TSLA underperformed on the week as MSFT hit a new record high, closing in on AAPL's market cap...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Simply put, as Goldman's Louis Miller highlighted today, the crowded-longs are outperforming and the crowded-shorts are underperforming...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Also, as Goldman flow traders exclaimed, US Single Stock short flows has increased for 14 straight weeks, the longest shorting streak ever on our record.

    Interestingly, Defensives and Cyclical stocks ended in the red for the week, both down around 0.5%...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Nasdaq is now by far the most expensive its ever been relative to Small Caps...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And in case you're wondering, here's why everything melted up...

    While the Russell 2000 failed on Tuesday at its 200DMA, the rest of the majors all broke back above theirs with Nasdaq Composite breaking back above its 100DMA...

    [​IMG]

    Tech stocks outperformed while the Energy sector was clubbed like a baby seal while Financials ended unchish...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    While big banks performed well, regionals were ugly, erasing over half the gains post-Bill-Gross-knife-catching...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which meant Value stocks once again underperformed Growth stocks - pushing the pair to what looks like significant support...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasuries were mixed with the long-end outperforming (30Y -3bps on the week), while yields on the rest of the curve were higher on the week, led by the shortest end...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    2Y Yields pushed back above 5.00% after the biggest weekly yield rise since May...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    This pushed the yield curve (2s30s) down (flatter/more inverted) for 4 of the 5 days this week - the biggest weekly flattening since Nov 2022 - to its most inverted in six weeks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar



    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin surged to 18-month highs on the heels of ETF approval hopes, erasing almost 50% of the losses from the record highs (and back above pre-Terra-stablecoin crisis levels)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    While Bitcoin got all the headlines (and Solana exploded 30% this week, up 145% in the last month), Ethereum's 12% rally was its best week since April...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The ETH/BTC cross ripped higher off support, rallying over 8% in the last two weeks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold fell for the second week in a row, tumbling almost 3% this week, the 3rd worst week of the year after spot prices topped $2,000 but could not hold it...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    However, we note that spot gold prices did find support at their 200DMA...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil ended the week on an uptrend with, trading back up towards its 200DMA (around $78.18)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, just as stocks were starting to 'correct' down to global 'liquidity', a buying panic comes back in...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But after 15 years, it's hard to argue that either central banks start printing again or stocks fall...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    ...or it's different this time?
     
    #2 bigbear0083, Nov 10, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2023
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Why We Think The Bull Market Should Continue In 2024
    [​IMG]

    2023 has been a year unlike any other, then again, all years are unlike other years. From everyone expecting a recession and continuation of the bear market at the start of the year, to the regional banking crisis in March, to one of the best first halves to a year for stocks ever, to a seasonally rough third quarter, to the terrible war in the Middle East, to the standard late October low and year-end rally. Yes, I’ve added that last prediction ahead of time, but we do feel confident we will see a chase into the New Year.

    It really is amazing though how this year has played out to form. Pre-election years tend to be strong, especially when you have a new President. Not to mention there still hasn’t been a recession in a pre-election year since WWII. August and September were rough and stocks corrected into a typical late October panic low. Sure, things weren’t that simple, but when you look back, it is incredible how well things played out to the potential script.

    So what could be next? Do we think this bull market that started in October 2022 has legs? We sure do. In the end it comes down to the macro backdrop and as we’ve explained for months now, the economy is on firm footing. Sure, things are ‘slowing down’ some, but we like to say they are normalizing, not slowing down. Could we really keep growing at 400k jobs a month like last year? No, but a steady 150k to 200k is perfectly normal and in line with pre-COVID trends. The consumer remains strong and incomes are growing at a very healthy clip as well. If we can avoid a recession next year (our base case), then we think the chances of a year with potential low double digits returns is quite likely.

    What will help drive stocks higher and likely to new all-time highs during the first half of next year? At the end of the day it is earnings. We’ve seen analysts continue to come in way too low on estimates and this trend likely continues. The third quarter was expected to see earnings fall slightly, now S&P 500 earnings are expected to come in up close to 6 percent. Looking ahead, companies in the S&P 500 now expect to see record profits over the next 12 months. You know what tends to happen when profits are at a record? Stocks tend to follow, something we expect to see in 2024.

    [​IMG]

    Potentially even more surprising as record profits is profit margins improving. What have we heard nonstop for the past year? Profit margins are too high and must fall. Well, since March we’ve seen forward 12-month profit margins increase. If both profits and profit margins are increasing next year, that should be a nice tailwind for equities.

    [​IMG]

    We noted many times that a pre-election year tends to see strong equity returns, which has played out nicely once again in 2023. Here’s where things get interesting though. Did you know that under a first-term President the returns were weak early, especially during a midterm year, then get much better during the pre-election and election year? Well, so far things have played out quite well with a very weak midterm year and solid pre-election year. Why is this? It could be as simple as when a President is up for re-election there are certain levers they can pull to get the economy and thus stocks into a better mood. In fact, 2000 and 2008 were horrible years for stocks, yet those were lame duck Presidents in an election year.

    [​IMG]

    Diving into the data more showed a very interesting development and that is stocks have been higher during an election year of a new President going back to the past 10 Presidents! Even the historically strong pre-election year can’t say that. Higher the past 10 times and up 12.2% on average isn’t anything to ignore and that is inline with a potential low double-digit return in 2024.

    [​IMG]

    One final bullish development just happened last week, we saw a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT).

    From Investopedia:

    Known as the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator, named for American stock investor and financial analyst Martin Zweig, the calculation measures how quickly sentiment in the market shifts.

    It does so by dividing the 10-day moving average of the number of advancing stocks by the total number of stocks. When it “thrusts” from a level below 40% to more than 60% in a 10-day period, it triggers a signal. You can read more about this signal here.

    The bottom line for readers is this happens when stocks go from very oversold to very overbought in a quick fashion. Think of it like a washout and then buyers step in big time. Again, this is rare, with the previous 16 times it had happened (back to WWII) that had a year of data after the signal showed higher prices every single time. Look at those green dots below, not the worst time to expect better times coming.

    [​IMG]

    Here’s a table breakdown of all the ZBTs we’ve seen since WWII. Again, up more than 23% a year later and never lower is something I don’t think we should ignore.

    [​IMG]

    Historic Sentiment Shift
    Thu, Nov 9, 2023

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have extended their impressive winning streaks and that has resulted in a surge in bullish sentiment. The latest weekly AAII sentiment survey showed that 42.6% of respondents reported as bullish this week. That is now the highest level of bullish sentiment since the first half of August and perhaps more notably, a major turnaround from last week's multi-month low of 24.3%.

    [​IMG]

    As shown below, bullish sentiment's 18.3 percentage point rise week over week is a historically large jump in optimism, especially in more recent years. That week-over-week increase ranks as the 22nd largest in the survey's history. It also just barely edged out the 17.88 percentage point increase in November 2020 for the largest one-week increase since July 15, 2010, when it had risen 18.43 percentage points.

    [​IMG]

    The surge in bullish sentiment borrowed heavily from those formerly reporting as bearish. Bearish sentiment jumped above 50% last week, the highest reading since last December, but was nearly cut in half this week as it came in at only 27.2%

    [​IMG]

    Whereas the jump in bullish sentiment was historically large, the resulting drop in bearish sentiment is even more significant ranking as the fourth largest on record.

    [​IMG]

    Given there were historic moves across both bullish and bearish readings, the bull-bear spread in turn has experienced a top 1% week-over-week move. Only one week ago, the spread indicated that bears outnumbered bulls by a wide margin of 26 percentage points. Rising an astounding 41.4 points week over week, that spread is back in favor of bulls at 15.4.

    [​IMG]

    Still Bullish – Even After S&P 500 Daily Winning Streak Ends
    [​IMG]
    Including the current S&P 500 daily winning streak there have been 233 six-day (or longer) Winning streaks by S&P 500 since 1950. The current 8-day streak has added 6.4% to the S&P 500 since it began on October 30. This is better than the average performance of the past 34 times that S&P 500 has been up eight days in-a-row, but well below the 11.9% S&P climbed in an eight-trading-day streak from March 12 to March 21, 2003.

    History cannot tell us when this current streak will end. However, it does indicate increasingly longer streaks are infrequent. Although S&P 500 has gone as long as 14 days without a decline (March 26 to April 15, 1971), it has done so just once in nearly 74 years. When the streak does end, all is not lost. As you can see in the following chart of the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after the past 7-, 8-, and 9-day daily winning streaks ended, S&P 500 continued to move higher on average over the next 60 trading days.
    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Gains Despite Bad Breadth
    Wed, Nov 8, 2023

    The S&P 500 is fighting (unsuccessfully at this point) for its eighth positive session in a row today (the longest winning streak for the index in exactly two years). But looking under the hood at the past two sessions, there has been some underlying weakness. Although Monday and Tuesday saw the S&P 500 rise 17.5 bps and 28.4 bps, respectively, net daily breadth (advancers less decliners) was negative on both days. Whenever we hear talk of weak breadth on market up days, comparisons are usually made to the 1999/2000 period right before the Dot Com bubble's peak. While it has been very uncommon for the S&P 500 to be up on back-to-back days when breadth was negative, not all (or even most) of the prior occurrences were isolated to just the period leading up to the Dot Com peak.

    In the table below, we show 19 prior times that the S&P 500 rose in back-to-back sessions with negative daily breadth readings on both days and no other occurrences in the prior three months. The most recent occurrence was back in June 2021, and one thing that stands out is just how bad breadth has been in this period. On Monday and Tuesday, cumulative breadth was at -267, and the only prior instance with worse breadth over the course of the two up days was in July 2015. While returns were outright negative for the following six months after that July 2015 occurrence, as a whole, these past occurrences with gains on negative breadth have not been an especially bearish or bullish signal. On both an average and median basis, performance was generally in line with the S&P 500's performance for all periods since 1990.

    [​IMG]

    In looking at the table above, on most of the days when the market was up and breadth was negative, the magnitude of the gains was very small, and in many cases, the S&P 500 didn't even move a tenth of one percent (10 bps) on either day. With that in mind, we filtered the table above to show only days when the S&P 500 was up at least 10 bps on each of the days when breadth was negative. Adding in that criteria, the 19 prior occurrences get whittled down to just six, and in this case, four of the six occurrences were in the months leading up to and after the Dot Com peak. While forward returns over the next week were positive all six times, average and median returns over the next one and three months were actually negative. Longer-term, six and twelve-month returns were split with a wide variance between average and median performance. These past examples suggest that while weak breadth on back-to-back positive days for the S&P 500 is not an outright negative, it's hardly a positive indicator either.

    [​IMG]

    FAANG+ Flatline
    Mon, Nov 6, 2023

    Earlier on X/Twitter, we highlighted the changing dynamics among the charts of the mega caps with Microsoft (MSFT) pressing towards a new all-time high, leaving the likes of Apple (AAPL) in the dust. Looking more broadly at the mega caps, below we show the relative strength of the mega caps proxied by the NYSE FAANG+ Index versus the S&P 500 over the past five years. As shown, the early days of the pandemic were a boon for these mega caps, however, that faded from late 2020 through about a year ago. While mega caps have outperformed again this year—and as a result have been the stocks to thank for the bulk of the S&P 500's gains year to date—the past few months have seen that relative strength wane with the line fairly flat since the late spring.

    [​IMG]

    Below, we show the relative strength line of the NYSE FAANG+ Index members versus the index itself. In other words, these charts show how mega-cap has performed relative to its peers. Similar to what we noted in our aforementioned post, Apple (AAPL) has been underperforming with a downtrend in its relative strength line throughout the past year. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) has seen its relative strength rip higher. The opposite has played out for Alphabet (GOOGL) whose relative strength line has plummeted in the wake of its earnings.

    As for the other FAANG+ stocks, there has not been the same sort of dramatic moves of late. That said, Amazon's (AMZN) relative strength has been consistently declining for a multiyear span now. Meta Platforms (META) would have been in a similar boat, but its relative strength turned around and began trending higher over the past year. Similarly, two semiconductor giants, NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) have had long-term rising relative strength lines with a dramatic acceleration in NVDA's over the past year. Finally, we would note that Tesla (TSLA), which once boasted the highest degree of outperformance of the FAANG+ stocks, has recently seen its relative strength line move sideways in a choppy manner.

    [​IMG]

    Why We Think the October Payroll Report Was Just What the Doctor Ordered for Markets and The Fed
    [​IMG]

    The October payroll report was weaker than expected on several fronts:
    • Monthly job growth came in at 150,000, below expectations for a 180,000 gain.
    • The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9%
    • Average hourly earnings growth rose at an annualized pace of 2.5% in October, well below expectations for close to a 4% increase.
    But here’s some perspective on those numbers:
    • Job growth was impacted by the United Auto Workers strike, which pulled manufacturing employment down by 33,000, and those are going to come back next month.
    • Monthly job growth numbers can be noisy, and so the 3-month average is helpful to look at – that’s running at 204,000, which is above the 100,000 – 125,000 required to keep up with population growth.
    [​IMG]
    • The unemployment rate doesn’t stay steady, nor does it keep going down in a straight-line during expansions. Between 1996 and 1999, the unemployment rate averaged 4.8%.
    • A few days back the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that layoffs are running around 1.5 million a month, which is well below the average 1.8 million in 2019.
    • As a percent of employment, the layoff rate is now at 1% – before the pandemic, this averaged 1.2-1.3%. I’ve cut off the y-axis in the chart below to show what’s happening more clearly (layoffs surged in March-April 2020 during the pandemic).
    [​IMG]

    The October payroll report tells us that the economy is slowing from its red-hot pace. However, we believe that’s just normalization rather than anything recessionary, for now.

    But as the title of the blog says, this normalization is just what the doctor ordered for markets, and especially the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    Good News: Fed Rate Hikes Are Probably Done
    Here’s how markets reacted to the payroll report:
    • Equity markets surged, rising more than 0.5% in the morning.
    • The 10-year yield fell to 4.5% – it was around 5.0% 10 days ago.
    • The probability of a Fed rate hike in December collapsed to under 10%, and the probability of one in January is now under 15%.
    Safe to say, investors think the Fed is done with rate hikes, and they’re taking that as a big positive for equity markets. The 10-year yield had been rising for a few months now on the back of one strong economic data point after another, culminating in the Q3 GDP report which showed the economy growing at 4.9% last quarter. Things were bound to turn sooner rather than later – the economy certainly wasn’t going to grow anywhere close to that going forward. But we believe the underlying speed of the economy is close to trend, around 2.5%, versus falling into a sharp slowdown, or even a recession.

    The Fed kept interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5% at their November meeting, pausing for the second meeting in a row. At their September meeting, members had penciled in one more rate hike for 2023. However, in his press conference, Fed Chair Powell brushed this away, saying the efficacy of those projections deteriorates within three months, and that Fed members could change their views at their December meeting.

    Powell went on to say that risks are more balanced now, unlike last year. Last year the risk was that they wouldn’t do enough to curb inflation, and so they moved aggressively. However, right now, there’s also a risk of doing too much, and unnecessarily sending the economy into a recession. They believe that the cumulative impact of everything they’ve done so far is yet to impact the economy.

    Moreover, if inflation continues to head lower, which is likely with wage growth cooling, we could see the Fed pivot to rate cuts by the middle of next year. Average hourly earnings are running at a 3.2% annualized pace over the past three months, almost matching what we saw pre-pandemic. That’s still strong, but something the Fed can live with.

    [​IMG]

    If inflation looks to be on a sustainable path to their target of 2%, we could see them pivot sooner rather than later. By itself, keeping rates where they are when inflation is falling means policy is implicitly getting tighter. Powell doesn’t sound like someone who wants that. And if economic growth is at risk, they could act even more aggressively.

    One thing we’ve seen with the Powell-led Fed is that they’ve been quick to pivot and act aggressively when they realize they’re behind the curve.
    • In 2018-2019, financial stresses and a slowdown prompted an about-face and led them to eventually cut rates.
    • In 2020 March, facing a deep recession, they didn’t hesitate to take rates to zero and took a series of aggressive measures to ease stresses in financial markets.
    In 2022 June, facing a 40-year high in inflation, they pivoted to a much more aggressive pace of tightening. Looking ahead, what’s interesting is that a normalizing economy could result in looser financial conditions, which could boost cyclical activity. A lower 10-year interest rate will push mortgage rates lower and that could spur more activity in the housing market. Business investment will also likely rise.

    Lower inflation will translate to consumers having more in their wallets as well, not to mention the fact that some household real estate wealth could be unlocked if there are refinancing opportunities. Think of someone who bought a mortgage at 8% but can now refinance at 6.5%. My colleague, Barry Gilbert, recently wrote about how there’s a lot of pent-up strength in the economy, despite all the pessimism.

    Throw potentially easier monetary policy into the mix of an already resilient economy, and we may have a strong catalyst for equity markets to gear shift higher.
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2023-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
    #4 bigbear0083, Nov 10, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2023
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 11.10.23-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 11.10.23-
    [​IMG]
     
    #5 bigbear0083, Nov 10, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2023
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for November 10th, 2023
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11/12/23
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
    #7 bigbear0083, Nov 10, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2023
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================

    StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (11/13-11/17) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

    Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (11/13) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***


    Monday 11.13.23 Before Market Open:

    [​IMG]

    Monday 11.13.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Tuesday 11.14.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Tuesday 11.14.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Wednesday 11.15.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Wednesday 11.15.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Thursday 11.16.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Thursday 11.16.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Friday 11.17.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Friday 11.17.23 After Market Close:

    (NONE.)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($PANW $FSR (again) $BABA $HD $WMT $TGT $CSCO $AMAT $MNDY $YTRA $SE $AAP $JD $PSFE $ZIM $M $SPRO $TSN $CSIQ $TJX $XPEV $TSEM $RUM $ARCO $SBLK $SKIN $PPSI $ASUR $ASTS $ROST $GLAD $PFLT $PNNT $OCSL $ONON $SQM $WULF $LICY $CPLP (again) $GENI $HROW $GPS $ARMK $SMTI $NTES $NICE $MKFG $SLE $SGML $REKR)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Top of the morning StonkForumers! :coffee: Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 30 minutes from the US cash market open.

    GLTA on this Monday, November the 13th, 2023! :cool3:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Morning Lineup - 11/13/23 - Big Week for Inflation Data
    Mon, Nov 13, 2023

    Unlike seemingly most Fridays this year where investors were hesitant into the weekend, last week bucked the trend as the S&P 500 rallied more than 1.5%. The downside of the positive close to the week is that there's less fuel for a relief rally to start the week, and that's exactly what we're seeing this morning as futures trade modestly lower. It's a quiet start to the week in terms of economic data, but there will be a ton of events to watch this week as the economic calendar is packed, including a very important CPI report on Tuesday. Earnings season will also unofficially wind down as Walmart reports later this week, and on the geo-political stage, President Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi in San Francisco on Wednesday.

    While there isn't much in the way of actual economic data today, one important report will be the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, specifically its reading on inflation expectations. In last Friday's Michigan Sentiment report, inflation expectations showed a meaningful increase. While that could just be a one-off quirk of that survey, any confirmation of that trend in today's report would spark concerns in the Treasury market. The results of that survey will be released at 11 AM.

    With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up over 1% last week, it looked like a good week for stocks, but that's not a complete picture. Smaller stocks were crushed with the Russell 2000 down over 3% and micro-caps down closer to 4%. At the sector level, performance was also mixed. While the Technology sector rallied 4.5% and Communication Services gained over 1%, sectors like Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate all fell over 2%. In terms of where various sectors finished the week relative to their trading ranges, there was also a lot of disparity with Technology at ‘Extreme’ overbought levels, while Energy and Health Care finished the week at Oversold levels.

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    In a nutshell, last week was a week where what had been working all year continued to work, and what hadn’t been working didn’t. The scatter chart below compares sector performance on a YTD basis (horizontal axis) with performance over the last five days. As shown, there is a clear trend where sectors that were positive on a YTD basis finished the week higher and vice versa. Of the eleven sectors, the only two where last week’s performance wasn’t in the same direction as their YTD performance were Consumer Staples and Materials.

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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, November 13th, 2023.
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    #13 bigbear0083, Nov 13, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2023
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    CPI day have been friendly to the market lately I think, let’s see what will happen tomorrow :D
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Top of the morning StonkForumers! :coffee: Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 5 minutes from the US cash market open.

    GLTA on this Tuesday, November the 14th, 2023! :cool3:

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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Morning Lineup - 11/14/23 - Here Comes CPI
    Tue, Nov 14, 2023

    After a slow start to the week for economic data things are picking up this morning. We've already had the release of NFIB's Index of Small Business Optimism, but that's just the appetizer for the October CPI report which is coming out as we send this. Heading into the report, there was very little movement in markets as futures, interest rates, and commodities have seen little in the way of change from their closing prices on Monday.

    When it comes to monthly inflation reports, things really have changed over the last year. In October of last year, the market was trying to navigate a record pace of higher-than-expected CPI reports as the ‘transitory’ inflation of the Covid era decided to stick around longer than anyone had expected. At the headline level, the trailing 12-month total of higher-than-expected headline CPI reports was at a record high of nine (top chart) while the trailing 12-month total of higher-than-expected Core CPI prints was also at a record high of eight (lower chart).

    Fast forward 13 months and the ‘uncontrollable’ wave of inflation has crested. At the headline level, there has been just one higher-than-expected CPI report in the last 12 months, and that occurred last month. The last time this reading was that low was back in October 2019. At the core level, there have been just two higher-than-expected CPI prints, and that’s the lowest since August 2019.

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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, November 14th, 2023.
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    #17 bigbear0083, Nov 14, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2023
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Seems like betting on a great day on the CPI day continues to work :laughing:
     
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  19. Stoch

    Stoch Well-Known Member

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    Small caps were amazing
     
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  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Top of the morning StonkForumers! :coffee: Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

    GLTA on this Wednesday, November the 15th, 2023! :cool3:

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