Stock Market Today: May 24th - 28th, 2021

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of May 24th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets on Friday:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Earnings: Lordstown Motors

12:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

5:30 p.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George

• Tuesday

Earnings: Nordstrom, Toll Brothers, Intuit, Agilent, Autozone, Cracker Barrel, Pershing Square Holdings, Urban Outfitters, Zscaler

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

10:00 a.m. New home sales

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles at Senate Banking Committee

• Wednesday

Earnings: NVIDIA, Snowflake, Bank of Montreal, Capri Holdings, Abercrombie and Fitch, Dick’s Sporting Goods, American Eagle Outfitters, Workday, Pure Storage, Designer Brands

3:30 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Quarles

• Thursday

Earnings: Best Buy, Salesforce.com, Costco, Dell Technologies, Box, Ulta Beauty, VMWare, Autodesk, Lions Gate, Canadian Imperial Bank, Toronto Dominion, Burlington Stores, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Royal Bank of Canada, Medtronic

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

8:30 a.m. Real Q1 GDP

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

• Friday

8:30 a.m. Personal spending (PCE deflator)

8:30 a.m. Advance indicators

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

 

Cryptos Crushed, Commodities Crumbled, But 'Crappy' Stocks Soared This Week
Some notable headlines catalyzed weakness in stocks during today's US session but Small Caps (Russell) and Big Caps (Dow) outperformed as Big-Tech (Nasdaq) lagged and the S&P went nowhere (weak close as post-opex week looms)...



1015ET *CHINA REITERATES CALL FOR CRACKDOWN ON BITCOIN MINING, TRADING (slamming crypto and pushed the entire stock market lower too)

1205ET *HARKER: SHOULD SPEAK ABOUT REDUCING BOND BUYS SOONER THAN LATER (pushed S&P down to unchanged)

1220ET *BOSTIC: MONITORING ECONOMY TO ASSESS TRANSITORY VS OTHERWISE (thanks Captain Obvious)

1225ET *KAPLAN: SHOULD DISCUSS UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF EMERGENCY TOOLS (little late for that now?)

1225ET *BARKIN: WHEN WE MAKE SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER PROGRESS WE'LL TAPER (yada yada yada)

1250ET *KAPLAN: RATHER GENTLY TAKE FOOT OFF ACCELERATOR THAN BRAKE LATER (so tapering then?)

1345ET *KAPLAN DECLINES TO PUT DATE ON WHEN FED SHOULD START TAPER TALK

1430ET *WHITE HOUSE SAYS INFRASTRUCTURE COUNTEROFFER REDUCES PRICE TAG TO $1.7T (spooked stocks a little)



Source: Bloomberg

Translation - banks are begging The Fed to taper!!


Nasdaq 100 was down 4 straight weeks going into Monday and avoided a 5th straight weekly loss - which would have been the worst streak since 2012. The rest of the majors whipsawed back from big midweek losses to end the week unch to marginally lower...



Unprofitable tech stocks rallied hard this week...



Source: Bloomberg

Tesla suffered its 5th weekly loss in a row - the longest losing streak in 3 years...



And before we leave equity-land, is the great rotation accelerating?



Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal this week thanks to a double whammy of repeated news from China...



Source: Bloomberg

Worst week for ETH since March 2020...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was ugly too, but fell less than the previous week...



Source: Bloomberg

The Bitcoin Proxy stocks were mixed with Coinbase and MicroStrategy the worst hit on the week...



Source: Bloomberg

And everyone's favorite - DOGE - dumped over 20% this week...



Source: Bloomberg

The alternate currency to crypto... the dollar - ended the week marginally lower amid lots of vol...



Source: Bloomberg

Commodities fell for the 2nd straight week...



Source: Bloomberg

Copper was down for the 2nd straight week - its biggest weekly loss since September...



And the short-end term structure for copper has plunged negative (3m forward prices below spot) for the first time in a year suggesting buyers are finally taking a break...



Source: Bloomberg

Thanks to three limit-up moves from Wednesday's limit-down lows, Lumber managed gains on the week after last week's plunge...



Source: Bloomberg

Amid all this turmoil, Treasuries ended the week practically unchanged (long-end modestly outperforming -1bps vs the belly +1bps)...



Source: Bloomberg

Breakevens were all lower on the week...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied for the 3rd week in a row (up 6 of the last 7 weeks) to its highest weekly close since January 1st (decoupling a little from real yields this week)...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold is also now up 7 days in a row (and up 12 of the last 13 days), closing above its 50DMA for the first time since January...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil suffered it first losing week in the last month...



And finally, we note that the US Macro Surprise Index went red for the first time since June 2020...



Source: Bloomberg

The big question is - will 'inflation' become the mindset (and what's cheap if it does)?



Source: Bloomberg

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2021-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Economic Surprise Index Tips Negative For The First Time In A Year
Fri, May 21, 2021

While the overall trend of economic data has been for further improvement, things have slowed recently relative to expectations. In the charts below, we show the charts of the Citi Economic Surprise indices for the US, Emerging Markets, the Eurozone, and the entire world. Broadly speaking, positive readings indicate that economic data is coming in better than forecasts while negative readings indicate the opposite. Every region of the globe has pulled back over the past couple of months but for the most part, current readings remain at the high end of their historical ranges. In fact, the indices for Emerging Markets, Eurozone, and the whole globe all sit in the top 3% of all readings in their histories. The one place that is not the case is the US. Since last summer, the surprise index has been trending lower off of record levels, and just yesterday, it hit it tipped negative for the first time since June 2nd of last year.



Lasting 248 trading days, this was the longest streak of consecutive positive readings in the index's history dating back to 2003. The only other streak that lasted nearly as long was a 189 day long one which came to an end in June 2018.



Post-Election-Year June: Third Worst S&P 500 Month

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 50 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.9% average gain, up 28 of 50 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.8% in the month since 1979.

In post-election years since 1953, June still ranks poorly and its average loss for DJIA increases to –1.1% while S&P 500′s modestly positive performance becomes a 0.6% loss. DJIA struggles the most, advancing in just four post-election year Junes (1977, 1985, 1997 and 2017). Russell 2000 fares best, up seven times in ten years with an average gain of 1.2%. NASDAQ lands in the middle, advancing 50% of the time with an average gain of 0.4%


May Manufacturing Starting Off Strong
Mon, May 17, 2021

The first manufacturing data for May came out this morning with the release of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey. General business conditions remain at historically strong levels although there was some slowing in May as was expected. After hitting the highest level since October 2017 last month, it was expected to fall to 23.9 in May. The index did in fact decline, but only to 24.3. While lower, that is still around some of the strongest levels (excluding last month) in three years as more businesses continue to report improvements in business conditions than weakness.



Breadth in this month's report was pretty mixed; namely with regards to current conditions versus expectations. Every index is still showing an expansionary reading with particular strength out of the indices for the present situation. In fact, most of those indices still sit in the top decile of their historical range with a few like those for unfilled orders, delivery times, and prices even at or just off of record highs. But there were a handful that moved lower: delivery times, inventories, and number of employees.

Regarding expectations, it was much harder to find an increase. Delivery times and technology spending were the only two of these indices to rise month over month. While many indices for expectations still sit at historically strong levels, there are more that are middling within their respective historical ranges. Overall, the report showed that New York area firms have seen a peak in optimism even as they continue to report strong conditions.



Demand certainly appears to be one area without much in the way of weakness. New orders rose 2 points month over month to 28.9. That is the highest level in just over 15 years and the only other readings as high occurred throughout late 2003 to mid-2004. Those orders are making their way out the door at an increased rate too as shipments climbed to 29.7. That index has been making a vertical climb since the winter as it reached its highest level since August 2007.

Despite this, NY area firms are not fulfilling orders fast enough. Last month saw the Unfilled Orders index rise by one of the largest amounts in a single month on record, and it continued to climb albeit by a much smaller 0.2 points in May. The only month on record with a higher reading in unfilled orders was September 2001. Inventories were one of the few current condition indices to fall in May, although the reading still indicated growth. In other words, those unfilled orders are not necessarily drawing down on inventory levels.



Supply chains are one of the main areas that are likely holding things back. Higher readings in the delivery times index mean that businesses are reporting that it takes longer for products to reach their destination. Even after falling 4.5 points in May off of the April record, the current level sits well above the prior record high of 16.2 from March 2018.



In addition to taking longer for products to get to where they are going, the price point is on the rise. Both indices for prices paid and received rose to record highs in May. In fact, over the past two months, there has not been a single respondent to have reported a decrease in prices paid. That is the first time that has occurred since February and March 2012.



Last week saw a blockbuster job openings report and the Empire Fed survey is showing a similar willingness to take on more workers. The current conditions index for the number of employees continues to show that businesses are on net increasing their workforce, though at a slowed pace from April. Additionally, the index is at a much less elevated part of its range (the 81st percentile) relative to other indices within the report, but the much more elevated reading in expectations (98th percentile) would indicate the businesses would like to take on far more workers. That is, there appears to be a bit of a disconnect between the actual number of new hires and businesses' expectations to take on more workers. Potentially as a result of an inability to hire enough workers, the average workweek has continued to climb. At 18.7, the index is at its highest level in a decade.



Homebuilder Sentiment Holds Steady
Mon, May 17, 2021

The national average on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage currently sits around 3.06%, little changed over the past month. Homebuilder sentiment as measured by the NAHB Housing Market Index similarly went unchanged in May staying at 83. Although it has been six months since the record high of 90 without much of a push back up to those record levels, homebuilder sentiment continues to come in well above anything observed prior to the pandemic. Commentary from the NAHB noted that the strong reading on homebuilder confidence is thanks to the low housing inventories, low rates, and strong demand, despite the headwinds of rising costs. While that could have played into the small decline in traffic, future sales did tick higher.





Whereas the headline number was flat on the month, readings based on each region saw much more variety. By far the largest move was for the Northeast. Since running back up to the record high back in February, homebuilder sentiment in the Northeast has fallen for three straight months and is now at the lowest level since January. The decline in sentiment in the Northeast is relatively recent. Whereas the region tied its record high earlier this year, the other regions all peaked out in the fall. For the Midwest, the declines have kept coming with 3 point declines in each of the past three months alone. The West and South, on the other hand, have found some respite. The South has ticked higher by 2 points in back-to-back months as it reached the highest level since December. Meanwhile, the West was unchanged at 91 in May.



As for homebuilder stocks, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) had been trading in overbought territory throughout most of the spring but in the past couple of weeks, it has come back down to Earth. Last Wednesday, ITB successfully tested its 50-DMA with a small bounce at the tail end of the week. So far today, it has turned lower alongside the broader market with a 1.35% decline. While that means Friday's close marks a lower high, for the time being, the uptrend is still intact.



PUA Claims Below 100K As States Plan To Drop The Program
Thu, May 20, 2021

Recent jobless claims prints have seen the readings on initial claims consistently fall to pandemic lows while continuing claims have been a bit weaker moving sideways or even slightly higher. This week, it was more of the same. Initial claims came in at the lowest level since the week of March 13th of last year; the last week before the pandemic caused claims to rise by the millions per week. At 444K this week claims dropped by 34K from last week's revised level of 478K (original of 473K). That was also better than expected as forecasts were calling for a decline to only 450K. Initial claims have now fallen three weeks in a row with the drop totaling 146K in that time.



On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims were likewise lower for a third week in a row coming in at 454.6K which again is the strongest reading since last March. With regards to Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), there have been several states to recently announce that they are to various extents doing away with certain programs like PUA early even though on a federal level the American Rescue Plan extended benefits through September. Without getting into the weeds on the implications of this, we would note those announcements do come in the context of very small inflows into auxiliary claims programs like PUA. This week, PUA claims fell below 100K for the first time after falling 8.6K to 95.09K.



In spite of decelerating inflows into the unemployment insurance systems, the continuing claims picture continues to worsen. Continuing claims were expected to fall from last week's revised reading of 3.64 million to 3.62 million, but instead, they rose 111K. That brings continuing claims to the highest level since mid-March and makes this week's increase the largest in a single week since the last week of November.



Factoring in all other programs for a more complete picture adds an extra week's lag to the data. By this measure, things look better than looking purely at regular state claims. Total claims across all programs fell to just above 16 million at the end of April compared to 16.891 million the week before; a new low for the pandemic. PUA claims contributed the most to that overall decline with the program seeing 678.7K fewer claims week over week. At 6.6 million, continuing PUA claims reached the lowest level since the first week of May of last year. Regular state claims and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) had the next biggest contributions to the overall decline with drops of 81.9K and 150.2K, respectively.





Increased Caution Across Sentiment Indicators
Thu, May 20, 2021

The S&P 500 has been holding up at its 50-DMA in the past week while more speculative areas of the market (i.e. crypto) have experienced wild swings. As a result, sentiment on the part of individual investors has not seen much of a move. The American Association of Individual Investors' weekly reading on bullish sentiment was little changed this week climbing half of one percentage point to 37%. Although that was not a large move in the past week, sentiment has taken a big hit over the past month having fallen from well above 50%. In spite of that big drop and even though sentiment is around the lowest levels of the past half-year, the current sentiment level is within one percentage point of the historical average. In other words, optimism is low versus recent history but is very much middling from a longer term perspective.



Meanwhile, bearish sentiment fell 0.7 percentage points to 26.3%. Unlike bullish sentiment, that is a bit lower than the historical average of 30.5%



Those corresponding moves meant the bull-bear spread climbed to 10.7 from 9.5 the prior week. Excluding last week, that is still one of the lowest readings since February.



Neutral sentiment has been the star of the show recently. The gain this week was tiny at only 0.2 percentage points, but nonetheless, it marked the fifth consecutive week in which neutral sentiment has risen. At 36.7%, it is now at the highest level since the second week of 2020.



The Investors Intelligence survey of equity newsletter writers took a less optimistic tone this week as bullish sentiment fell 4.1 percentage points to a ten-week low of 54.5%. Bearish sentiment was unchanged at the highest level since the end of March. The survey also questions respondents on whether or not they expect a correction. That reading rose 4.1 percentage points to 28.3% in the biggest one-week uptick since the last week of April when it rose 4.7 percentage points. That leaves the reading at the highest level since the week of March 10th. Before that, you would need to go back to September 23rd to find as high of a reading.



Another sentiment reading that has taken an even more dramatically negative tone lately has been the National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index. This index measures how exposed to equities managers are where readings of 200 would mean they are leveraged long, 100 would be fully invested long, 0 would be neutral, -100 is fully short, and -200 is leveraged short. This week saw the index fall another 2.65 points after a massive 40-point decline last week. That is the lowest level since last March and April of last year. Altogether, while sentiment still favors bulls, there has been a more cautious tone that has been reflected in managers reducing exposure to equities. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available.

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 5.21.21-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 5.21.21-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for May 21st, 2021
Video from Alphatrends


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.23.21
Video from ShadowTrader
(NONE THIS WEEK.)

 

​

Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 5.24.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 5.24.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 5.25.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 5.25.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 5.26.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 5.26.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 5.27.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 5.27.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 5.28.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 5.28.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NVDA $APPS $CRM $RIDE $SNOW $COST $BBY $LI $DG $AZO $DKS $CTRN $ANF $OKTA $AEO $PDD $CBRL $MDT $ZS $URBN $GPS $DLTR $INTU $TOL $CPRI $JWN $TH $HPQ $ULTA $VEEV $WSM $WDAY $BURL $DELL $SOL $SAFM $A $PLAB $VSAT $TD $PSTG $AFYA $SKY)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning May 24th, 2021 <-- click there to view!

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (5/24-5/28) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this week!

• Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (5/24) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for Monday!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday! And welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look at the futures as we are about 3 and 1/2 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, May the 24th, 2021!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look at the futures as we are about 3 and 1/2 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, May the 25th, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 5/25/21 - Russell's Turn
Tue, May 25, 2021

Yesterday may have been a day you wanted to own bitcoin over a bond but not today. After one of its best days in years, bitcoin is down over 5% as of now. Right now, it's flopping around trying to regain its footing and establish a new baseline after last week's crash. In other news, equity futures are higher, and those 10-year US Treasures that no one wants to own are rallying to push the yield back below 1.6%.

In company-specific news, we've seen some positive news related to the re-opening this morning as both United (UAL) and Hawaiian Airlines (HA) had positive comments regarding passenger traffic levels.

After multiple attempts at moving back above its 50-DMA, the Nasdaq was finally able to trade and close above that level yesterday as mega caps in the index provide leadership. Call it a moral victory for the index on its attempted journey back to record highs.



Today looks like it may be the Russell 2000's turn to make a run and stay above its 50-DMA. Including yesterday, the small-cap index has made three attempts to trade above its 50-DMA, and each time, it sold off intraday day closing below that level. In yesterday's email, we noted that breadth in the Nasdaq has been weak as smaller issues in the index have acted as a drag on the index. The fact that the Russell 2000 hasn't been able to trade and close above its 50-DMA provides another illustration of that relative weakness. If the Russell can finally reclaim its 50-DMA today, though, that would help shift to a more bullish narrative for small caps heading into the holiday weekend.

 

man, not sure if i'm the only one(?) but market (as a whole generally speaking) kinda uninteresting right now haha. maybe we get some kind of convincing directional move one way or the other. and yes, i know there was some pullback off the ATHs the other week. but, it's been a lot of chopping back and forth it seems. pretty mundane if i have to be honest.

although admittedly i haven't really been following the market action much at all of lately due to getting quite busy in my IRL (in real life).

hope to be a bit more active soon though. hope you 2 have been doing well (stoch and stock1234!). thx sooooo much for you guys sticking around on this forum even though it's largely a dead forum haha. really do greatly appreciate you guys!!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look at the futures as we are about 3 and 1/2 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, May the 26th, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 5/26/21 - Dollar on the Floor
Wed, May 26, 2021

It's been a quiet news morning, but that hasn't kept futures from rallying. Treasuries are essentially flat, equities are modestly higher, and bitcoin is bouncing in a big way and back above the $40,000 level (for now).

After an initial surge in the early days of COVID, the dollar has been on the defensive for the last year now. We saw a modest bounce earlier this year, but the rally in the Bloomberg Dollar Index stalled out in March just shy of its 200-DMA and is now back to testing 52-week lows from earlier this year.



Current levels for the Bloomberg Dollar Index represent an important line in the sand as it's nearing the lowest levels in more than five years. Looking at the Bloomberg Dollar Index on a longer-term basis, we can see just how important the 1,100 level is. From 2005 through late 2014, there were only a handful of days where it ever traded above that level, but after breaking above 1,100 in 2015, it hasn't looked back since. If that level does not hold going forward, it could mark an important turning point from a strong to weak dollar environment, and that would have implications on many asset classes and investment strategies.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look at the futures as we are about 4 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, May the 27th, 2021!