Stock Market Today: May 22nd - 26th, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of May 22nd!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

Bumper Week For Banks & Big-Tech But Bonds Suffer Biggest Bloodbath In A Year
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 - 04:00 PM

"The things we were most worried about didn't get worse.." was the phrase overheard on one business media channel to sum up why the markets rallied this week...



A week of debt-ceiling optimism-fueled short-squeezing ran into a wall of OpEx flows, Powell's (hawkish) comments, Yellen's banking crisis still ongoing reports, and finally reports that debt ceiling talks are going nowhere.

Fed Chair Powell painted a hawkish picture of inflation-fighting warrior during this morning's panel discussion, highlighting that "failure to get inflation down would prolong pain," and that "inflation is still far above our 2% objective." Powell signaled a pause, stating that "we can afford to look at data", but he noted that the "market rate-path reflects a different forecast than The Fed."

Powell further extended the “coordinated” Fed messaging from FOMC speakers seen over the the past week - which Nomura's Charlie McElligott points out has clearly been the FOMC looking to alter the market's assumed probabililty distribution of the Fed path continuum which is creating the false optic of 'immiment Fed cuts' within implied pricing...



Source: Bloomberg

However, comments (below) from Yellen (banking crisis) and Washington (debt ceiling - no deal), sent June rate-hike odds plunging...



Source: Bloomberg

Comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen were interesting given the big gains in regional banks this week as CNN reported her telling the big bank CEOs that "more mergers may be necessary"...

Which roughly translated means: more bank failures are imminent - which is ironic given that regional bank stocks soared almost 10% this week - the best week since Nov 2020 - but Yellen's comments spooked them today...



Then Washington peed in the punchbowl as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s top debt-ceiling negotiators reportedly "abruptly left a closed-door meeting with White House representatives soon after it began Friday morning, throwing the status of talks to avoid a US default into doubt." Thus crushing optimism over the debt-ceiling talks.



Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that the 'longer-term' sovereign risk of the USA remains at extreme highs...



Source: Bloomberg

However, on the week, MegaCap-Tech continued to attract momo/safe-have/FOMO/AI flows with Nasdaq soaring (The Dow was the laggard but still green on the week)...



Shorts were squeezed on the week, but today's OpEx chaos may spoiled the ability to ignite it again...



Source: Bloomberg

While a handful of MegaCap Tech names led the markets higher, retail stocks were clubbed like a baby seal after TGT, WMT, and FL (FootLocker) also signaled the consumer may be weakening significantly this week...



Source: Bloomberg

Just remember, we've seen this pattern of debt-ceiling optimism turn into pessimism before (in 2011)...



Source: Bloomberg

And Nasdaq is extremely overbought...



Source: Bloomberg

Yields exploded higher this week with the short-end massively underperforming. Note that the selling pressure was almost solely during the US day session...



Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest weekly rise in 2Y yields since June 2022.



Source: Bloomberg

And a massive curve flattening (inverting further)...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the second week in a row but hit notable resistance and faded today...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin chopped around $27,000 (+/- $500) all week...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold's worst week since Feb, but did bounce back today...



Copper was flat on the week but crude managed gains (despite weakness on the day)_



NatGas soared 15% this week, back at 2-month highs...



Finally, we give the last words of the market week to Nomura's Charlie McElligott who has good news and bad news for what happens next: the recent PTJ talking point on this current environment looking like the 2006 / 07 playbook increasingly “feels” like the right one: the Equities market can continue to absolutely party until the end-game arrives... and it can take much longer than you think despite "things breaking along the way," just ripping-out hearts in the meantime as we continue to fend off worry-after-worry, where pervasive skepticism and cynicism towards market conditions keep sentiment- and positioning- “light” and in-turn, continue to feed into a "buyers are higher" pain-trade melt-up within Risk-Assets in the meantime.

Options skews suggest a lot of 'over-hedging' remains...



However, McElligott warns, we've seen this pattern of behavior before: Similar to my January comments on the “most mis-priced risk” in markets being a false assumption on market sequencing which them assumed “pause then cut,” instead of the risk of the Fed needing to actually take Terminal projections higher, which is exactly what then happened throughout the month of February and roiled markets on account of the January “animal spirits” data phenomenon after the Fed’s premature easing of FCI... it feels like the market is “starting” to get the joke again that there is “growing delta” for yet-another false assumption, resizing the probability distribution of the the bi-modal humps (mega-crash rate-cut AND/OR high-for-longer).

The June-Dec Fed-Funds spread is steepening to reflect this apparent shift...



Source: Bloomberg

The market could get stopped-OUT of the current “pause then cut” assumption and / or get stopped-INTO a disaster “pause then hike” flip...



Source: Bloomberg

...and remember, a seemingly / outwardly “bullish” debt-ceiling deal getting done actually perversely instead releases a new wave of tightening, particularly due to a massive TGA rebuild thereafter with ENORMOUS T-Bill issuance in the months thereafter, creating a monster liquidity drain.

So, be careful what you wish for and maintain light positioning (the latter harder than it sounds amid the AI-phoria).

 

The Leading Indicator That’s Pointing Away From a Recession
Posted on May 19, 2023

It’s hard to get away from continued recession calls, even as several data points suggest the opposite. For example:

• Employment: running strong
• Retail sales: rebounded in April
• Manufacturing: signs point to a turnaround, especially vehicle production
• Housing: a turnaround seems to be happening

I want to focus on housing in this blog.

Residential investment makes up under 5% of the economy, but it’s been a drag on economic growth for eight straight quarters.



Over the four quarters through Q1 2023, real GDP grew about 1.6%. But that’s after accounting for a 0.6-0.7%-point drag from residential investment. That’s a lot!

The cause shouldn’t be a surprise. The Federal Reserve (Fed) began its most aggressive policy tightening cycle in 40+ years as they looked to get on top of inflation. That sent mortgage rates from 3% to 7% in less than a year, freezing the housing market. Affordability collapsed due to higher rates and elevated home prices.

Amid decreasing demand, builders reduced their involvement in new construction projects. As a result, there was a notable 27% decline in single-family construction, which comprises approximately 40% of residential investment in GDP. Brokers’ commissions, accounting for just over 20% of residential investment, experienced a 28% decrease due to a significant drop in sales activity. Home improvements also fell, primarily because many households had already completed their projects during the 2020-2021 pandemic period. The sole positive aspect within the housing sector was the continued strength in multi-family construction.



Declining housing activity has foreshadowed past recessions
Between 1980 and 2010, we had five recessions, and each one was preceded by a huge decline in single-family housing starts.

Housing starts measure the start of construction on a new residential unit. This precedes sales of new homes as well as spending on appliances, furniture, and other home goods. It tells you a lot about builders’ sentiment for investing in new projects and how consumers view their personal financial situation (since buying a house is a big deal).

You can see why it’s an important metric for gauging where the economy is going.

I looked at single-family housing starts across the five recessions that preceded the pandemic-led 2020 recession, including 1980, 1981-’82, 1990-’91, 2001, and 2007-’09. As you can see in the chart below, single-family starts declined significantly prior to each of those recessions. And these were typically preceded by aggressive Fed tightening.

The mildest decline was in 2000 when starts declined “only” 17%. The 1999-2000 period saw the Fed raise the federal funds rate by about 1.75%-points. The other periods saw rates go up by 4.0%-points or more.



Here’s what’s interesting, however. The chart also shows that housing historically bottomed prior to the end of a recession and has typically led the economy out of one. It typically coincided with the Fed reducing interest rates in response to a slowing economy.

This brings us to the current cycle.

A turnaround begins
The chart below shows single-family housing starts and permits. Permits count authorized permits to build new housing units and are a leading indicator of future supply.

Thanks to aggressive Fed rate hikes, single-family starts crashed 35% over the 12 months through November 2022. Permits plunged 40% over the 11 months through December 2022. No wonder residential investment was such a big drag on economic growth. However, unlike what we saw in the past, the economy was able to avoid a recession.

And now there’s good news. Starts and permits appear to be turning around. Starts are up 5% since November 2022, while permits have already increased 14% over the three months through April.



Builders are feeling a lot better about the housing market
Builders’ confidence in the housing market is growing. Since the start of 2023, the NAHB Housing Market Index, a gauge of builders’ confidence, has been steadily recovering. It’s still got a long way to go to get back to pre-crash levels, but the upward trend is encouraging.



In fact, earnings and revenues for the nation’s largest builders have been beating estimates by a big margin in the most recent quarter. More importantly, they’ve been very positive about what lies ahead. This comment from the Chairman of D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest homebuilder, best captures it:

” Although higher interest rates and economic uncertainty may persist for some time, the supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points remains limited, and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable.”

Here’s a summary of what’s happening:

• Due to high mortgage rates, most homeowners (who probably bought their homes or refinanced at low rates) are “locked in.”
• So, there’s not much inventory in the existing home sales market.
• However, there’s a lot of pent-up demand due to a record number of people in the 25-34 year age cohort, which is the prime home-buying age.
• These potential homebuyers are being pushed into the new homes market.
• That is very positive for builders and the economy since new home demand matters a lot for economic growth.

The final chart to underline all this: the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, which is a basket of homebuilder stocks, just hit a new 52-week high, and is at the highest level since February 2022. The ETF is up more than 21% this year through May 18th.



Investors are starting to treat the housing market as an early cycle recovery story, even as several commentators call for a cycle-ending recession. Not us, though. We’ve been saying the economy can avoid a recession since last year.

Russell 2000 Best Week Before Memorial Day, Up 75% of the Time

Top image curtesy of https://www.asomf.org/the-history-of-memorial-day/

In the table we went back to 1971, the year the Uniform Monday Holiday Act took effect, moving Memorial Day and most other federal holidays to Monday. The Friday before Memorial has become getaway day on The Street and volume can be diminished and trading uninspired. However, this has not stopped the market from making some sizable moves for the week. Last year, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all jumped over 6%.

DJIA is the weakest in the week before Memorial Day up 27 of the past 52 years and a paltry 0.13% average gain. S&P is a bit better, up 63.5% of the time with an average gain of 0.32%. NASDAQ is up 65.4% of the time, averaging a gain of 0.41%. But the Russell 2000 small cap index takes the lead ahead of the official kick-off to summer up 75.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.73%.


Stocks and Bonds Part Ways
Fri, May 19, 2023

Ever since the Federal Reserve started talking about hiking rates at the start of 2022, stocks and bonds have been joined at the hip. Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) as a proxy for the bond market, the correlation between its closing prices and the S&P 500 (using SPY) has been +0.79, implying a very strong correlation. Visually, it’s also easy to see the relationship as the two sold off throughout most of 2022 and then bottomed out early in the fourth quarter. From those lows through early April, the positive correlation between the two continued, but ever since then, the paths of the two ETFs have diverged. Since April 6th, TLT is down 6.8% while the S&P 500 is up 2.7%. As the sell-off in Treasuries has picked up steam in recent days, market watchers have been expecting stocks to start following suit. Bulls, on the other hand, are hoping that this is the start of an amicable separation between the two.



Nasdaq Outperforms The DJIA By a Bull Market
Thu, May 18, 2023

Every day it seems the gap just keeps getting wider, and today the YTD performance spread between the Nasdaq and the DJIA widened out to over 20 percentage points - or the equivalent of the traditional threshold for a bull market. As of Thursday afternoon, the Nasdaq was up 20.4% YTD while the DJIA was barely hanging above the unchanged line with a gain of 0.3%. Since the Nasdaq launched in early 1972, there have only been three other years where the index outperformed the DJIA by more than 15 percentage points YTD through 5/18, but 2023 is on pace to go down as the only year where the performance gap exceeded 20 percentage points.



The question going forward is, will the Nasdaq continue its outperformance for the remainder of the year, or will the DJIA step up and play catch up? There have only been three other years where the Nasdaq even outperformed by 15 percentage points at this point in the year, but below we have provided a snapshot of both indices during those three years. For each set of charts, we show the performance of each index in the top charts where the gray shading shows the period from the start of the year through 5/18. Underneath each of those charts, we also show the relative strength of the Nasdaq versus the DJIA where a rising line indicates outperformance on the part of the Nasdaq and vice versa.

Of the three years shown, the Nasdaq continued to outperform the DJIA by a wide margin for the remainder of the year in two of them (1991 and 2020). In 1983, on the other hand, the Nasdaq actually declined 8.2% for the remainder of the year giving up all of its prior outperformance as the DJIA rallied 4.6%.





Four More Reasons the Bulls Are Smiling
Posted on May 17, 2023

Last month, I wrote about some bullish events taking place in Three More Bullish Signals The Bears Don’t Want To See, and it was a very popular blog. Well, today, I’ll take it one more step and list four new reasons the bulls will continue to smile.

We think the Fed is likely done hiking
With inflation coming down quickly, we are in the camp that the Fed is likely done hiking rates. You can read more about what Sonu had to say about the recent inflation data here.

One clear sign the Fed is indeed done is that the upper limit of the Fed Funds rate is now up to 5.25%, which is finally more than year-over-year CPI, which is 4.9%. As you can see below, the previous eight hiking cycles needed this ingredient before the Fed was done, and we are now there.



What if they are indeed done? I wrote about this in The Last Hike?, but the bottom line is stocks tend to do quite well, higher a year later eight out of 10 times and up a very impressive 14.3% on average. I keep hearing on tv how it is bearish once they stop hiking, but the data just doesn’t show that.



Stocks aren’t loved
We’ve noted many times in the past six months that one reason to expect higher equity prices was that the masses keep betting on lower prices. This matters as the crowd is rarely right looking back at history. I wrote about this more in Is Anyone Bullish Part 2.

Well, we have more data to support this in the form of a recent Gallup poll that asked what the best long-term investment would be. Wouldn’t you know it, stocks/mutual funds came in at the lowest level since 2011! Given how poorly stocks did last year and the constant barrage of negative news, maybe this isn’t a surprise, but from a contrarian point of view, this is another reason to think the path is higher for stocks.



Now is weak, but the future looks better
Some of the business and economic surveys we’ve seen lately have been weak, that is true, but what has our attention is that the future is looking better.

The New York Fed does some great work here, and a recent survey of Business Leaders showed that expectations for business activity six months from now were at the highest level since September 2022.

I find this worthwhile, as they focus on the New York and New Jersey area, in other words, the heart of the banking world. If most of these business leaders see better times coming, that is something the bulls should embrace.



Positive year-over-year … finally
Here’s a big one that just happened, and it has many bulls smiling.

The S&P 500 was negative year-over-year on a monthly basis for 12 consecutive months, but it just ended positive at the end of April (mainly thanks to the 9% drop in April 2022 dropping off). What does this mean? Well, we looked, and when previous long streaks ended, historically it suggested the bulls would start to have some fun.

As you can see below, the S&P 500 has never been lower a year later, higher eight out of eight times, with a very impressive 15.3% average return. Yes, there are many things to watch, but when you layer this one with the other bullish signals we’ve noted so far in 2023, we continue to hold an overweight to equites in our Carson House Views.



We Now See a Path to Lower Inflation
Posted on May 16, 2023

April’s CPI inflation data came in at expectations. Headline inflation rose 0.4% and is now up 4.9% over the past year. That is well below the peak rate of 9.1% last June. The big picture is inflation has already pulled back in a big way. That is primarily because of lower energy prices, and a welcome decrease in food prices. Used car prices rose in April but have been on a downtrend since last summer, contributing to the pull back in inflation. New car price inflation appears to be easing now, too, with prices falling for the first time in two years.



Excluding food and energy, “core inflation” is now running higher than headline inflation, at 5.5% over the past year. That’s not far below last summer’s peak of 6.6%, and so the pullback in headline inflation hasn’t quite translated to the core measure. Core inflation is also what the Federal Reserve (Fed) typically focuses on, and from that perspective, inflation remains well above the Fed’s target 2% rate.

Housing inflation is turning around
The main reason behind elevated core CPI inflation is housing inflation, which makes up 41% of the basket. Housing inflation, which is basically derived from rents (as opposed to home prices), has been running hot, around 8-9% over the past year.

This is in sharp contrast to market-based rental price measures, which have shown a sharp deceleration in rents over the past year. Apartment List’s national rental index peaked at 18% about 18 months ago, but that has decelerated to a 1.7% pace as of April. The official shelter index clearly has a significant lag to this market-based index. But here’s the good news: The official data looks to be at a turning point.



On a month-over-month basis, rents had been increasing at an average rate of more than 0.7% between June 2022 and February 2023. But that has decelerated to an average rate of about 0.5% over the last two months, which is a very positive sign. However, as the chart below shows, that’s still higher than 2018-2019 when monthly increases averaged about 0.3%.



In short, the official housing inflation data is decelerating, but there’s still some ways to go. We’re likely to get closer to the pre-pandemic pace as we move into the second half of 2023, and that will also pull core inflation lower.

Producer Prices – There and Back Again
The producer price index (PPI) measures the prices that domestic goods and service producers receive. The index surged at a 12% annual pace back in March 2022, indicating wholesalers faced significant cost increases for the goods they bought from domestic producers. Which as we know, was passed down to consumers.

The good news is that we’ve come a long way over the last year. PPI rose just 2.4% over the 12 months through April, a pace that is similar to what we saw before the pandemic.



PPI is kind of a forward-looking indicator for consumer prices and perhaps more importantly, some its underlying components directly feed into the Fed’s preferred index for inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index. Based on the latest CPI and PPI data, forecasters at Goldman Sachs now expect PCE inflation to increase 0.3% in April, or 4.2% from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, “core PCE” is expected to rise just 0.3% in April, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 4.6%.

This would be a very positive development, as it would alleviate the Fed’s concerns about inflation picking up speed and bring an end to the aggressive cycle of interest rate increases that began just 14 months ago, with rates rising by 5 percentage points.

NASDAQ Outperforming DJIA By Most since 1991

After being the best performing index last year (by declining the least), DJIA’s laggard performance in 2023 continued today. Home Depot’s disappointing forecast earlier today only added further pressure on DJIA. As of today’s close, the 12th trading day of May, DJIA is negative for the year, down 0.41%. NASDAQ, however, is up 17.93% thus far this year. This gives NASDAQ an 18.34% advantage, it’s second biggest lead at this point of the year since 1991 when it was ahead by 18.99%. We would not be surprised to see NASDAQ to continue to lead the way as it still has the rest of May and June remaining in its “Best Eight Months,” November through June.

Homebuilders Sentiment and Stocks Still On the Rise
Tue, May 16, 2023

As we noted last week on the release of the latest mortgage purchase data, housing activity appears to have finally stabilized after plummeting earlier in the tightening cycle. That improvement in housing markets is flowing through to builders as this morning's release of homebuilder sentiment from the NAHB rose to 50 versus the expectation of it remaining unchanged at 45. While the index still has a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic levels, let alone the record highs from the first two years of the pandemic, in May it hit the highest level since last July.



The higher reading in the headline index was a result of improvements across the board, including increases in present and future sales and traffic. As for regional sentiment, homebuilders have gotten more optimistic across most of the country. Everywhere save for the Northeast have seen steady improvements to homebuilder sentiment over the past several months. As for the Northeast, that is not to say sentiment has not improved. The reading has rebounded off of the worst levels but remains below the recent highs of 46 from February and March.



Homebuilder stocks continue to be even more impressive. Proxied by the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB), homebuilders have been trading in a steady and uninterrupted uptrend. In fact, the ETF has been overbought every day for a month now.



Midway through May, DJIA Logs its Second Daily Gain

As of today’s close, May has been trading consistent with it historical seasonal pattern, weak and choppy. DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and 2000 are all in the red. Today’s modest 0.14% gain by DJIA was just the second daily gain this month and it is now down 2.20% for May. NASAQ is up 1.13% and is the only index with a gain in May. With no progress being made on the debt ceiling, the market is likely to continue to trade sideways. Historical strength over the last four trading days in May is the lone bright spot over the last 21-years.

NY Fed Plummets
Mon, May 15, 2023

The economic calendar was light this morning with the Empire Fed Manufacturing survey the only release of note. Whereas last month saw a solid reading of 10.8 implying expansionary activity in the NY Fed's region, expectations were set low as the index was forecasted to fall down to a contractionary reading of -3.9. Instead, the index plummeted all the way down to -31.8, the lowest since January when the index reached a slightly worse -32.9. Additionally, the monthly decline in the headline number ranks as the second largest drop on record behind April 2020. Overall, the index has been quite volatile in recent months bouncing from historically contractionary readings to modest contraction or even growth.



As shown below, the month-over-month declines across many categories were nothing short of historic in May. For example, New Orders saw an astounding 53.1 point decline (just short of a record decline similar to the headline index). Shipments wasn't much better with a 40-point decline. However, expectations for both of those categories rebounded with New Orders being a particularly big uptick, ranking in the upper decile of all month-over-month increases. That being said, the indices remain in the bottom deciles of their historical ranges while all other categories (like unfilled orders and inventories) saw declines in expectations alongside declines in current condition indices. Again, while recent months have seen some volatility in these survey results, the findings would imply responding firms have observed a significant slowdown in their businesses.





One silver lining relative to post-pandemic trends is that the report has shown a complete reversal in readings on prices and delivery times. As shown in the first chart below, the average of the two current conditions indices has been rolling over and is now basically right in line with the historical median. Balancing out the more normalized level in supply chain readings, firms also appear to be reporting massive pullbacks in hiring capital expenditures, and plans for tech spending. During the past two recessions, this average has turned negative, and at the moment, it is only barely positive at 3.43.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2022-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 5.19.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 5.19.23-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for May 19th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/21/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (5/22-5/26) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (5/22) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 5.22.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 5.22.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 5.23.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 5.23.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 5.24.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 5.24.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 5.25.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 5.25.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 5.26.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 5.26.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NVDA $PANW $ZIM $SNOW $LOW $DKS $COST $ZM $BJ $GLBE $ELF $NNOX $AZO $ADI $KSS $INTU $SPLK $NIU $BBY $DLTR $MDT $ECC $APPS $XPEV $ADSK $ULTA $VFC $PATH $MRVL $IHS $WSM $BMO $ICCM $WOOF $PETS $CSWC $A $ANF $TD $DAVA $NAT $BNS $VIPS $WDAY $RVYL $TOL $OCFT $CLGN $LPG $BURL)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning May 22nd, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, May the 22nd, 2023!

 

Good Monday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading week ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 5/22/23 - Merger Monday
Mon, May 22, 2023

There were no advances in the debt ceiling negotiations over the weekend, and some might even argue that they went backward, but President Biden is set to meet with Speaker McCarthy today. That’s leading to hopes that when they’re in the same room together instead of negotiating through press conferences, they may be able to make some headway.

It’s a quiet morning in terms of economic and earnings data, but futures are trading modestly higher perhaps due to a few mergers. This morning alone, Chevron (CVX) announced a deal to acquire PDC Energy (PDCE) for $72 per share in stock. Additionally, two smaller deals were also announced involving Greenhill (GHL) being acquired by Mizuho for $550 million, and VectivBio (VECT) being taken over by Ironwood Pharma (IRWD) for $1 billion.

There may be some doubt over the ability of the US Federal government to pay its debts come June, but gold hasn’t seen any benefit from its haven status. Prices are modestly weaker this morning putting the commodity on pace for its fourth straight day of closing below its 50-day moving average (DMA). As the 50-DMA has the potential to act as short-term resistance, the uptrend from last fall’s low and the high from February in the high $1760s range is a potential support zone.



Gold’s recent weakness comes within just a month of the commodity hitting a record high of $2,085.40 back on May 4th. While the early May peak was a record high, it was only marginally above its prior highs of $2,078.00 in August 2020 and $2,078.80 in March 2022. Given that, unless prices recover relatively quickly from here, chatter of a triple top in the commodity will pick up considerably.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, May 22nd, 2023.

 

pretty boring day again today as has been customary the case for monday's lately

very choppy/sideways range all day pretty much since the open, except i guess for the first 30 minutes when we got that false report of an explosion at the pentagon which turned out to be some fake AI generated image that was making the rounds on twitter. glad to realize it was just a fake news

it definitely feels like this market is just in a holding pattern right now and waiting for some more clarity on the debt ceiling.

we'll see how things eventually shake out. i suspect the longer this goes on then the markets may start to get a little fidgety.

i believe the hard deadline for the debt ceiling to get raised is on june 1st (?), but i think a deal would need to get passed this week.

i'm not totally sure if this will actually mark a significant volatility event in the market or not. it could. we'll have to wait and see.

the markets have been by and large a bit mundane for most of this year thus far, so if we did actually see a spike in market vol would be kinda refreshing and welcoming to see here

hope you guys are all having a nice kickoff to your week here.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, May the 23rd, 2023!

 

Good Tuesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 5/23/23 - Permission for Takeoff
Tue, May 23, 2023

After a strong week, equity futures are taking a breather this morning as they await an agreement progress on the debt ceiling. Interest rates are higher once again this morning, and European stocks are lower following the release of PMI data for May. Those indices for the US will be released at 9:45, and then at 10 AM, we'll get the releases of New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing reports.

How many times over the last six months have you heard someone say that Alphabet (GOOGL) missed the boat on AI to Microsoft (MSFT)? Things really got bad for GOOGL after the rushed launch of Bard, its answer to ChatGPT, earlier this year. At that point, GOOGL was underperforming MSFT by a high single-digit percentage margin since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of November, and more than a few were questioning the company’s future. At its I/O event two weeks ago, though, GOOGL had a much more impressive presentation related to how it was incorporating AI tools into its services, and the stock has come climbing back nearly erasing all its post-ChatGPT underperformance gaining 24% compared to MSFT’s 26% since the launch on 11/30/22. While Alphabet may not have originally done AI well, after the improved showing at the I/O event, the market is giving the stock, to borrow from the Page quote above, ‘permission’ to rally.



GOOGL’s recent performance hasn’t just been notable in that it has made up much of the ground that separated it from MSFT, but also, over the last ten trading days, it has rallied over 15% taking the stock to 52-week highs. While the stock remains more than 17% below its all-time highs from 2021, when a stock is trading at its highest levels in over a year, ‘missing the boat’ is not the first phrase that comes to mind.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, May 23rd, 2023.