Stock Market Today: June 10th - 14th, 2024

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of June 10th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:



Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

Payrolls Malarkey & Pussy Meltdown Prompts Market Mayhem
FRIDAY, JUN 07, 2024 - 04:00 PM

Just when you thought you had the trend all figured out, "the most ridiculous payrolls report in years" combined with a "roaring kitty" sparked utter mayhem across all asset classes.

A week of weaker than expected data was met with a barrel of bullshit from the BLS with payrolls beating but unemployment rising as part time jobs soared )for illegal immigrants) and full time jobs plunged leaving the US Macro Surprise Index back at its lowest since Bidenomics was unleashed (with the unemployment rate at 4% for the first time in 3 years)....



Source: Bloomberg

And that sent rate-cut expectations (hawkishly) lower - after a week of dovish exuberance...



Source: Bloomberg

Aside from the macro meltdown, "Roaring Kitty" sparked chaos amid a bizarre live stream that prompted a 40%-plus collapse in GameStop's share price...



Source: Bloomberg

All of which left Small Caps down on the day and the res of the majors unchanged...



Source: Bloomberg

But on the week, Nasdaq outperformed strongly as Small Caps were slammed...



Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq outperformed the Russell 2000 every day this week for its best relative weekly performance in seven months...



Source: Bloomberg

Most Shorted stocks tumbled today, going red on the week...



Source: Bloomberg

But MAG7 stocks soared for the 6th week in the last 7 (and the best week in the last 7)...



Source: Bloomberg

The gap between Nasdaq and the 10Y yield is becoming silly...



Source: Bloomberg

But there really was no reason for today's bond market meltdown a (yield melt-up) as the underlying report was ugly as hell. 2Y Yield ended the week higher (after underperforming today +15bps) but the long-end remained down 10bps on the week (even after an 11bps spike today)...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar spike to one-month highs...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold was clubbed like a baby seal as the dollar spiked, trading back at one- monthly lows..



Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was also ugly with Bitcoin testing $72,000 and then puking down to find support at $69,000...



Source: Bloomberg

Even though BTC ETFs have seen 18 straight day s on net inflows...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended lower o the week but bounced back stromgly in the last three days



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, someone is going to be very wrong here...



Source: Bloomberg

Who is your money on?

Because Central Bank liquidity sure ain't supporting it anymore...



Source: Bloomberg

This won't end well.

 

Down April – Up May Signals Q3 Weakness



Today’s jobs report pushes the likelihood of a rate cut out further and lowers expectations for multiple cuts. Strong employment number yet higher unemployment rate means more hiring and more people looking for jobs. Healthy economy. Weaker Q1 GDP is understandable considering the tear economy was on last year and since Covid.

Rates have stabilized and lower highs on the 10-Year Treasury reduces need for Fed to cut. The last inflation number was better, but we need to see a few readings of consistently lower PCE. Chart Below.

Down April – Up May Signals Q3 Weakness

When the market goes against seasonality it becomes an indicator. Weakness in a historically strong top month April and strength in weak May suggest more market chop as I have been saying for some time now with the market prone to some Q3 weakness into bear killing October just ahead of the election.

There have been some recent notes from the big bank’s research departments calling for a tough Q3. Not a lot of reasons are given but they are probably just referring to their handy copy of the Stock Trader’s Almanac (wink).

NASDAQ’s Best 8 Months Ends in June

Three Things for the Bulls


“I’ve had 36 orthopedic operations, have two fused ankles, my knees, hands and wrists don’t work, I now have a fused spine, other than that, everything is great.” -Hall of Fame basketball player Bill Walton

First off, RIP to Bill Walton. He was one of a kind and his glass-is-half-full attitude on life is something many investors could learn from. Things can get pretty dark pretty fast, but if you are willing to wait long enough, brighter times will come.

Here are some things that caught my attention recently and all support the bullish thesis.

The S&P 500 just missed a 5% gain in May, but 4.8% is pretty darn good, especially considering April lost 4.2%. So what tends to happen after a big May you ask? June, which is historically not a good month, gained eight out of 10 times for a very solid 1.0% average, while the rest of the year was up more than 10% on average, more than double the average final seven months of the year. Even more impressive though is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. “MAY”be we have a positive signal from the strong May. Did you see what I did there



2024 is one of the better starts to a year ever, but you’d never know it if all you looked at were the headlines. All we hear about is how bad things are, how the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. Well, investors should be smiling through all the dour calls and outlooks, as stocks have gained double digits after the first five months this year and the good news is more green could be coming.

We found the returns after previous 10% or more year-to-date gains after May tended to be quite impressive, with June up 1.0% on average (and even more for the median), with the rest of the year up 16 out of 19 times (84.2%) with a solid 8.8% gain on average.



The last bullet point for the bulls is a 4% or greater monthly gain has tended to suggest continued strength, with the S&P 500 up a year later 81.3% of the time and up a very solid 12.2% on average. This compares to the average year higher 73.0% of the time and up 9.0%. But it doesn’t end there, as I looked at all 12 months and would you believe that, historically, the very best returns after a 4% or greater monthly return take place after a big gain in May? A year later stocks have never been lower (10 out of 10) and are up more than 20% on average.

EM Election Madness
Tue, Jun 4, 2024

Equities here in the US have gotten off to a weak start this month with the S&P 500 (SPY) down modestly over the past couple of sessions. However, those declines are being overshadowed by emerging markets. As we discussed in yesterday's Morning Lineup and Closer and expanded on further in today's Chart of the Day, Mexican equities have gotten massacred following the country's election of Claudia Sheinbaum as president. The US-traded ETF that tracks Mexican stocks (EWW) is down 8.3% month-to-date and 12.3% year-to-date. After that decline, the ETF closed yesterday at a record 4.19 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average (DMA). That recent weakness is also a 180 from last year when EWW was the best-performing country ETF of the 22 tracked in our Global Macro Dashboard.

Turning forward to today's news, Indian equities are likewise responding negatively to an election. As we detailed in today's Morning Lineup, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies won a majority, but by a much smaller margin than was expected just yesterday. Given the results, the India ETF (INDA) is down 6.6% for its worst day since the final day of 2021. Unlike EWW, INDA is still up on the year, though it has swung from deeply overbought to oversold territory in only a day.

As for the rest of the world, we would note that yet another emerging market has fallen on hard times. Brazil (EWZ) has gotten crushed this year with a 16.7% year-to-date decline even outpacing Mexico for the worst performance in 2024. Averaging across countries, EMs have fallen 0.74% year-to-date whereas developed markets are up mid-single digits on average. Relative to prior highs, the gap between emerging and developed markets is even more stark. EM country ETFs currently sit an average of 9.42% below 52-week highs compared to only 3.28% for developed market countries.



Below, we show price charts of a handful of emerging market economies over the past year with 50-DMA trading ranges shown. As noted earlier, Brazil has been weak and trending lower all year consistently trading below its 50-DMA (gray line). It is not only extremely oversold today, but it is also on the verge of 52-week lows. While EWZ has been trending lower, China (MCHI) has been a bright spot. MCHI is in a long-term downtrend dating back to early 2021, but since the start of this year, it has rebounded. This week's weakness in Mexico (EWW) comes on what has been a period of consolidation. Since the end of last year, EWW has essentially trended sideways, and current levels are in the middle of last fall's range. As for India, up until today, the country's equities have been in a steady uptrend throughout the past year. After today's decline, the uptrend has taken a hit with the first oversold readings since the fall.

Downward Debt
Mon, Jun 3, 2024

Although the second half of May was weak for US Treasuries, long-term US Treasuries had a positive return in May as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rallied 2.9%. Despite that rally, TLT has been in a steady downtrend for who knows how long. It's hard to imagine a stock, index, or asset class that has been in a more well-defined downtrend over the last two years. While there have been plenty of times during this period when TLT has rallied above its 50 and 200-DMAs, they haven't lasted long.



The chart below shows the annualized return of the Bank of America 10+ Year Treasury Index over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years. While long-term treasuries have averaged a gain of about 8% per year dating back to the late 1970s, in more recent years, performance hasn't been anywhere close to those levels. Over the last year, long-term treasuries are down close to 7%, and over the last two years, the annualized return has been a decline of 7.3%. Even over the last five years, annualized returns are still negative 4%. It isn't until you go out ten years that annualized returns are positive, and at 0.5%, that's hardly anything!



The last several years could go down as one of the worst periods on record for US Treasuries. The chart below shows the year/year change in the BofA 10+ Year US Treasury Total Return Index. While there have been plenty of months (15) over the last 40 when US Treasuries had a positive return, there has only been one when the index had a positive return on a year/year basis. As shown in the chart below, the only other period where y/y returns were anywhere close to as consistent to the downside was from October 1979 through October 1981, but even then there were three positive y/y readings in what was a shorter 25-month period. Additionally, the magnitude of the y/y decline during that late 1970s/early 1980s period wasn't anywhere near as deep as the losses during the current period.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 6.7.24-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 6.7.24-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for June 7th, 2024
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/9/24
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (6/10-6/14) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (6/10) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 6.10.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 6.10.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 6.11.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 6.11.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 6.12.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 6.12.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 6.13.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 6.13.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 6.14.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 6.14.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($AVGO $ADBE $ORCL $RH $ASO $FCEL $YEXT $PLAY $SIG $CASY $AFMD $PETS $MPAA $SKIL $POWW $RBRK $CURV $VRA $VTGN $CVGW $MAMA $OXM $HITI $LILM $LOVE $KFY $ZK $RFIL $WLY $ITI)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning June 10th, 2024 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, June the 10th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 6/10/24 - The Day You've All Been Waiting For
Mon, Jun 10, 2024

Today’s the day Apple (AAPL) investors have been waiting for as the company will finally announce a detailed AI strategy. The company has been criticized for being slow to the game, but, as has been widely pointed out by analysts for months now, it has a reputation for being late to the game regarding new technologies. Where they succeed is by watching everyone’s first bets at a technology and then raising the stakes.

Futures are lower to kick off the week, and the economic calendar is sparse today with the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations the only report on the calendar. The weak tone in futures originated in Europe, where EU election results showed significant gains for the populist far-right parties. Between the elections in Mexico and India last week and the EU elections over the weekend, politics has been making its way to the headlines lately. Thankfully, we won’t have to deal with that here in the US this year…

Last week was tough for commodities as just about all of the commodity-related ETFs in our Trend Analyzer declined at least 1% and in many cases much more. The one notable exception was the US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) which surged nearly 15% making it the only ETF in the group that finished the week at oversold levels. Before we all go getting on the UNG bandwagon, though, even after last week’s gain, it is still one of just two ETFs in the group that’s down on the year.



Over the last year, UNG has been a long painful ride lower. A year ago, the ETF was trading in the high 20s/early 30s, and earlier this year it was in the low teens before rallying back to $20 on Friday. Even after that gain, though, the ETF remains stuck below its 200-DMA which is a boundary line that it has been comfortably residing for the last year.



Over the last year, there have only been six trading days where the ETF has closed above the 200-DMA. As shown in the chart below, this is a very low level, but it’s hardly unprecedented. There have been multiple times where the ETF spent years below its 200-day moving average.



From a long-term perspective, UNG has been burning money for 15 years. On a reverse split-adjusted basis (there have been two 1-4 reverse splits since 2017), the ETF was above $3000 versus $20 today- a decline of more than 99%!

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, June 10th, 2024.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, June the 11th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 6/11/24 - Politics Weighs on Sentiment
Tue, Jun 11, 2024

After record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq yesterday, there’s a negative bias this morning as European stocks are lower given the political uncertainties most notably in France where there were even rumors overnight that Macron would resign. The only economic report on the calendar today was small business sentiment from the NFIB which came in better than expected. However, given tomorrow’s CPI report and the Fed Decision in the afternoon, we wouldn’t expect too much conviction today.

Apple (AAPL) finally unveiled its AI strategy yesterday and judging by the stock’s reaction, investors weren’t impressed. While the stock was down marginally just before the conference started, it sold off even more once it started and more details started coming out. When the closing bell rang, the stock was near its lows and down just under 2% for the day.



The chart below shows the performance of AAPL on the first day of its WWDC conference each day since 2007 when the iPhone was first launched. Yesterday’s 1.9% decline ranks as tied for the third-worst performance on the first day of the WWDC conference during that span. The only two years where the first-day performance was worse was in 2007 (3.5%) and 2008 (-2.1%). While that ranking sounds ominous, we would also note that the stock has almost always traded lower on the first day of its WWDC conference (just four positive days in the last 18 years). Longer-term, from the close on the first day of the conference through year-end, the stock has been higher 70% of the time, and from the close on the first day of the conference to the start of the next year’s conference, AAPL stock has been higher more than 75% of the time. In other words, first impressions of the WWDC conference haven’t usually been correct.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, June 11th, 2024.