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Stock Market Today: July 24th - 28th, 2023

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jul 21, 2023.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of July 24th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
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    S&P Sectors End of Week:
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    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Major Futures Markets End of Week:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    (N/A.)
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Dow's Longest Win-Streak In 6 Years Shrugs Off Recession-Signaling Yield-Curve Collapse
    FRIDAY, JUL 21, 2023 - 04:00 PM

    Ever so quietly under the covers of a quiet summer week, US Macro data surprised to the downside, with the biggest weekly drop since Feb 2019...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    But that didn't disturb the equity market melt-up (except for Nasdaq but more on that later). This was The Dow's best week in 4 months (best 2-weeks since Oct '22), Nasdaq's 3rd weekly loss in last 5 weeks.

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    The Dow is up 10 days in a row (managing to hold on with a 0.01% gain on the day!!) - its longest winning streak since Feb 2017...

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    With the Nasdaq rebalance taking place, we look back at the performance of our ups-versus-downs basket pairs trade with the up-weights outperforming the down-weights (dominated by the Magnificent 7 stocks) by around 5ppts...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    It was quite a week for 'most shorted' stocks with the opening 30 mins every day either a pukefest or buying-panic...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Some of the lipstick came off the un-profitable tech stocks pig this week...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Bank earnings dominated the early week with MS outperforming and Citi not so much...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Tough week for some of the big-tech firms...

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    Treasuries were mixed this week with the short-end underperforming (2Y +8bps, 30Y -2bps)...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The yield curve flattened (deeper inversion) this week, having reversed from the pre-FOMC levels...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar bounced back to its best weekly gain since Feb '23...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Crypto was basically flat on the week with Ripple the only standout...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    In commodity-land, crude managed gains, but copper was ugly; gold was slightly higher and silver down...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    NatGas ripped higher to its first positive week in over a month...

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    Finally, as Goldman points out, there is an increasing bifurcation between optimism on main street (AAIIBULL) and optimism on wall street (GS sentiment score)...

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    While the two were on relatively the “same page” over the last four years, retail is much more positive than professional traders.

    And the decoupling between the decade-old regime of global liquidity and US equities continues to widen...

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Probably nothing, right?
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    It’s a Bird. It’s A Plane! It’s … the US Economy!
    Posted on July 20, 2023

    We just got a bunch of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2).

    Long story short: Not only do we see no sign of recession, but it also doesn’t even look like the economy is looking for a “landing” at this point.

    I realize this could change, but so far the data doesn’t indicate much weakness. Now, the monthly data can be volatile, and subject to revisions. So it helps to look at the last three months. Let’s walk through some of the highlights.

    Consumption Was Strong
    • Retail sales rose at a 4.7% annual pace in Q2.
    • Core retail sales, excluding categories like vehicle and gas station sales, rose at a 6.3% annual pace.
    • Even after adjusting for inflation, “real” retail sales rose at a 1.9% annual pace in Q2, and are currently running 6% above the pre-crisis trend!
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    The Supply Side Is Coming Back
    • Vehicle production rose 7.6% in Q2.
    • Production within the aerospace industry rose 4.7% in Q2.
    • High-tech industries are running hot, with production up 3.9%, and almost 17% above pre-pandemic levels.
    • Production of business equipment outside of vehicles and high-tech also looks to have bottomed, which is a positive sign for capex.
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    Construction is Booming
    • Single-family housing permits and starts rose 11% in Q2.
    • An index measuring homebuilder sentiment continues to move higher, indicating that builders are getting more positive about future demand.
    • Meanwhile, total housing units under construction (single-family and multi-family) are near an all-time record.
    • Combine that with a boom in manufacturing construction, and its not a surprise why construction payrolls have increased by 88,000 this year and are about 339,000 above pre-pandemic levels.
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    All These Points to Strong Economic Growth
    The Atlanta Fed puts out a “nowcast” of quarterly real GDP growth that is updated with major economic data releases. Right now, it says the economy grew 2.4% in Q2, after adjusting for inflation.

    If that is close to actual GDP growth in Q2, it would mean the economy grew 2.6% over the past year. That is not only stronger than the average 2.3% pace of growth between 2010 and 2019, but it also matches the pace of growth over the three years prior to the pandemic (2017-2019), when economic growth picked up.

    What is amazing is that the economy accelerated after a poor first half of 2022 even as the Federal Reserve hiked rates aggressively, taking the federal funds rate from 0.25% to 5.25%.

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    Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6% over the past year, and headline inflation fell from 9% to 3%.

    It really doesn’t get better than that. Perhaps more importantly, there is no reason to believe a major slowdown is in the cards at this point.

    Seasonal Bump Absent in Claims Data
    Thu, Jul 20, 2023

    Among the many economic indicators updated this morning, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims came in stronger than expected, falling to 228K. That reversed the recent jump in claims observed throughout the late spring.

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    Looking at the non-seasonally adjusted data helps to explain the recent decline in the adjusted number. As shown below, barring the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, claims remain at one of the higher readings for the current week of the year in recent history. Typically, in late June and early July, seasonal headwinds cause a significant bump in claims. This year, that increase has been relatively modest.

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    Pivoting to continuing claims, the indicator had been on the decline since early April, but the first two weeks of July have seen a modest turn higher. At those levels, continuing claims remain in the middle of the range from the few years leading up to the pandemic.

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    Bulls Dominate
    Thu, Jul 20, 2023

    The past week has provided some positive developments on the inflation front that in turn sent equities higher. In response, readings on investor sentiment have shown a dramatic positive turn. The latest AAII survey showed more than half of respondents reported as bullish for the first time since April 22, 2021. As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, this week's reading ended an over two-year-long streak without a reading above 50% which was the third longest such streak on record.

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    Given the elevated reading of bullish sentiment, a minor share of respondents are reporting as bearish. In fact, that reading fell to 21.5% this week which is the lowest reading since June 2021.

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    Last year saw a record streak of weeks where bearish sentiment outnumbered bullish sentiment. With the total reversal in sentiment, the bull-bear spread now heavily favors bulls. The spread reached 29.9% this week for the highest reading since April 2021.

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    The gains to bullish sentiment have not entirely come from bears. Neutral sentiment is also reaching new lows, registering just 27.1% this week. Unlike bearish sentiment, that is only the lowest level since the last week of 2022.

    In tonight's Closer we will discuss the surge in other sentiment indicators and what that has historically meant for S&P 500 performance.

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    DJIA Advances for 8th Straight Day – Historically Bullish for Next 3 Months
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    For the 54th time since 1950, DJIA has recorded a daily winning streak of at least eight days. This is DJIA’s first 8-day winning streak since 2019. During the current streak DJIA has advanced 3.93%. Of the prior 53 daily winning streaks lasting eight or more trading days, 26 ended at 8 days, 14 ended at 9 days, 8 made it to 10 days, while 2 made it to 11 and 12 days. DJIA’s longest daily winning streak of 13 days was in January 1987. DJIA also enjoyed an 8-day winning streak in July 1987. Based upon the last 53 streaks, there is only a modest 50.9% chance of the current streak continuing to 9 days or longer.

    Historically, daily winning streaks of 8-trading days or more have been bullish even after they ended. Over the 1-, 2-week, 1-, and 3-month periods after the daily winning streak ended DJIA was higher, 98.1%, 98.1%, 96.2% and 90.6% respectively. The only significant decline within 3 months of a daily streak end was a 19.22% loss in 1987.
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    Reality Check for Housing Starts
    Wed, Jul 19, 2023

    After a blockbuster report for May where Housing Starts and Building Permits both surged, there was a bit of a reality check in June. While Building Permits were expected to come in at 1.50 million, the actual reading came in at 1.44 million representing a 3.7% m/m decline and a drop of 15.3% y/y. One positive of this report, though, was that single-family units actually increased 2.2% and are only down 2.7% y/y even as multi-family units plunged 12.8% m/m and over 30% y/y. With respect to Housing Starts, the headline reading also missed estimates by 46K (1.434 mln vs 1.480 mln). Not only did June's reading miss forecasts, but May's reading was revised lower, so that the originally reported 231K beat was more like 159K. Even after that downward revision, though, Housing Starts declined 8.0% m/m and 8.1% y/y.

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    Following May's report, we noted that the 12-month moving average of Housing Starts had broken its streak of 12 straight declines, but this month, the moving average resumed its downtrend and fell to its lowest level since February 2021. Similarly, the 12-month moving average for Building Permits declined below 1.49 million for the first time since December 2020 and posted its 11th straight decline.

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    Taking a longer-term look at the 12-month moving average for Housing Starts, it remains in its well-established downtrend. As shown in the chart below, prior periods where this average peaked and started to rollover usually preceded recessions.

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    A comparison of Housing Starts versus the performance of homebuilder stocks is a perfect example of how the market tends to trade in advance of events. Just as homebuilder stocks peaked four months ahead of the peak in Housing Starts, they bottomed five months in advance of the recent low in the three-month moving average.

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    Yes, There Were Clues That ’23 Would Be a Big Year for Stocks
    Posted on July 19, 2023

    “You can learn a lot by looking.” -Hall of Fame catcher Yogi Berra

    Stocks had one of their best starts to a year ever after six months in 2023 and the fun has only continued so far in July. If you’ve followed us since late last year then you know that we expected a good year and said there likely wouldn’t be a recession either.

    By early November of last year, we were on record saying the bear was over. This was a widely despised call, as it was wildly out of consensus. Nearly everyone else said stocks would move back to new lows and most economists were talking about a near-certain recession.

    But were there clues? We’ve heard many say there were no warning signs that the bull was back. We’d disagree wholeheartedly, as there were many, many clues a big rally was coming. In this blog today I’ll share some of the exact same charts and tables we shared late last year and early this year that suggested a big rally was coming.

    One clue was the average bear market without a recession was 23.0%, right in line with the 25.4% bear market we had just experienced. Given we said there was no recession coming, it didn’t make sense to see stocks fall significantly further.

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    We noted many times that October was a bear market killer, as six of the previous 17 bear markets ended in this month. Make that seven of the past 18.

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    Stocks historically do really well the year after a midterm election, something we weren’t going to go against. In fact, stocks have never been lower going back to World War II.

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    The odds of a recession were slim, given how strong the consumer and employment backdrop was. At the same time, recessions simply don’t start in pre-election years. Or at least we haven’t seen one start in a pre-election year going back to WWII.

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    Speaking of pre-election years, stocks tend to do quite well here, up nearly 17% on average. But when the year before was negative (like 2022), the average return jumps to 24.6% and has never been negative.

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    The S&P 500 gained more than 5% in back-to-back months in October and November. This isn’t what you see in the middle of a bear market, but something you tend to see at the start of new bull markets.

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    Going back to midterm years and pre-election years. When a midterm year is lower, then expect some fireworks that following year.

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    Another thing we knew was that the third year of a new President tends to see the very best returns.

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    In late November the S&P 500 finally moved above the 200-day moving average after more than seven months beneath it. Historically, stocks tended to soar from this point, up nearly 20% a year later.

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    What if October was the low, like we started to say in November? Well, enormous gains a year later wouldn’t be abnormal.

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    Another chart we shared many times late last year was a year off of the mid-term year lows, stocks tend to gain a lot, to the tune of more than 32% on average and never lower. We knew October 12 was the closing low at the end of the year, so we could make a safe assumption that big gains would be in store a year after those lows.

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    Inflation soared last year, but we expected it to come back this year. Simply put, stocks tend to do much better when inflation is lower than it was the year before.

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    It is really rare for stocks to be lower two years in a row. The odds of a big bounce back were high. Not to mention when the previous year falls 20% or more, the move back the next year tended to be huge. Stocks didn’t quite lose 20% last year, but it was close, suggesting higher prices in 2023.

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    So, everything I’ve said above were things we shared late last year, again, giving clues a bounce back was likely. Now we will look at things that happened in the early part of this year that added to the chances of a strong rally.

    When the first five days are up nicely, like this year, the full year has tended to go well.

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    The bullish trifecta was met as well. This is when stocks are up during the Santa Claus Rally period, the first five days, and during the month of January. Following the trifecta, stocks are up 17% on average for the full year and higher 90% of the time.

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    What if stocks fell the previous year and hit the trifecta? Things tended to get even better.

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    We saw extreme buying pressure to start the year, with the 10-day total of advances versus declines on the NYSE above 2.1, a very rare signal. As you can see in the table we shared in mid-January, six months after this signal stocks had never been lower. Six months later this year, that is still true.

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    Stocks gained in January and the gains were large, more than 5%, suggesting the full year was going to be up nicely.

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    But if the year before was negative and stocks added 5% in January, the full year did even better, up close to 30% and never lower.

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    Lastly, stocks tended to do quite poorly when a team from Philly won it all in baseball or football. With apologies to the great fans of the city of brotherly love, a narrow loss to the Chiefs in the Superbowl may just have given markets a little extra insurance. Sure, this is actually random and all, but I’m not arguing with history!

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    So there you have it. I just shared 20 tables and charts that we shared from October through January, which all told a similar story. Go all the way back up to the top and the quote from Yogi. The clues were there and you could learn a lot by watching. If you watched what the Carson Investment Research team was saying, this historic rally shouldn’t be much of a surprise.

    This is a big reason why we moved our Carson House Views for equities from neutral to overweight all the way back in December. We expected markets to rebound in 2023, as we wrote in our 2023 outlook.

    If using an evidence-based approach to investing makes sense to you, please continue to follow us. And for more of our views on what could be next, be sure to read our just released Mid-Year Outlook: Edging Closer to Normal.

    Homebuilders Hopeful
    Tue, Jul 18, 2023

    Housing activity has been somewhat muted given a dearth of inventories, but the lack of available existing supply has been positive for homebuilders. The NAHB's monthly survey of homebuilder sentiment moved higher in July for its seventh straight monthly gain. Even after the rebound, the current level of 56 represents just a 13-month high and is below the range of readings from the few years prior to the pandemic and historic readings in two years before the pandemic.

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    The improvement in the headline index was primarily driven by increases in present sales and traffic. Geographically, the Midwest and South saw some modest softening in sentiment whereas the West and Northeast were much more impressive. The Northeast in particular saw an 8-point jump which ranks in the top decile of all monthly moves on record and brings the index into the top quartile of historical readings.

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    Although homebuilder sentiment has been rebounding solidly, it pales in comparison to the strength of homebuilder stocks. Proxied by the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB), homebuilders have continued to set new 52-week highs on a near-daily basis. The ETF has now risen 56% over the past year and has continuously traded in overbought territory (currently extremely overbought with a price more than 2 standard deviations above its 50-DMA).

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    Homebuilder earnings are also on deck in the next couple of weeks. Below, we show a screenshot from the Earnings Explorer function of our Custom Portfolios. As shown, all but three S&P 1500 Homebuilders are due to report through the first week of August. Of those, a vast majority have averaged positive moves on earnings.

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    The Dollar is Weakening – Why That’s Good for US Investors
    Posted on July 18, 2023

    At the beginning of the year, we wrote in our 2023 Outlook that the US dollar was poised to weaken, creating tailwinds for Americans who invest in International stocks and S&P 500 earnings. We reiterated that this is starting to happen in our Mid-Year Outlook, “Edging Closer to Normal.”

    The chart below shows the recent swing in the ICE US Dollar Index, which measures changes in the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, including the euro, yen, British pound, and the Canadian dollar. It rose 27% between May ’21 and September ’22, but has pulled back 12% since then.

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    A Boost for USD-Based International Equity Investors
    When an investor in the US uses dollars to buy a basket of international stocks, the interim step is first converting those dollars to the local currency, which introduces currency risk. Note that when you see quotes for international stock exchanges, like the Nikkei (Japan) or the DAX (Germany), those are in local currency terms. To buy European stocks, you must first convert dollars to euros. Your returns are not just dependent on what the European stocks do; it’s also dependent on what happens to the euro relative to the dollar. If the euro appreciates against the dollar, that’s a tailwind to your investment, whereas a stronger dollar acts as a headwind.

    From September 30th of last year through July 14th, the MSCI EAFE Index, which represents a basket of international stocks across developed markets, outperformed the S&P 500 Index. The MSCI EAFE Index gained 35.2% versus 27.4% for the S&P 500. But as you can see from the table below, that outperformance is because of a tailwind from a weaker dollar. Emerging market stocks have also seen a tailwind from a weaker dollar but have underperformed due to a murky economic picture in China.

    Even over the past month and half (May 31st through July 14th), the dollar took a renewed plunge, boosting returns for international stocks.

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    A Tailwind for Earnings
    Over the last two decades, movements in the US dollar have negatively correlated with S&P 500 earnings changes. Excluding recessions and post-recession recoveries (since those skew the numbers significantly in either direction), earnings weakness for the S&P 500 has coincided with dollar strength, whereas a weaker US dollar has correlated with stronger earnings growth.

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    This makes some intuitive sense once you realize that 40% of S&P 500 revenue comes from outside the US. The logic here is that if a company used to sell a machine abroad that generated the equivalent of $1,000 in the past, now that would be about $1,100 because the local currency rose 10% against the US dollar.

    So, while the US economy is very relevant for S&P 500 company earnings, much of it also hinges on what happens outside the US and what happens with the US dollar.

    Why Is the Dollar Weakening?
    It probably helps to understand why the dollar strengthened in the first place. The simplest explanation is that interest rate differentials between the US and other countries rose – the idea is that if interest rates are much higher in country A rather than country B, money will flow into country A, thus raising the value of that country’s currency.

    The chart below shows the dollar index on the top panel, while the bottom panel shows the difference between 1-year US treasury yields and EU government 1-year yields. You can see how the dollar has moved higher when interest rate differentials climb, most notably after 2014 and in 2022. In contrast, the dollar has pulled back when the differential falls, which is what happened in 2019-2020 and this year.

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    Short-term interest rates, like 1-year yields, are an estimate of central bank target rates over the next year. 1-year yields in the US surged in 2022 because the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates to tame inflation. They were much more aggressive than their counterparts at the European Central Bank (ECB).

    You can see the difference between the Fed and ECB’s target interest rates below. The differential jumped in 2022 but it’s been pulling back recently. The Fed’s taken its foot off the gas, while the ECB remains aggressive. Since the beginning of the year, the Fed has raised rates by 0.75%-points, whereas the ECB has raised it by 1.5%-points.

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    The reason is that US inflation has started to pull back, and is poised to fall further – see our blog from last week discussing this. In contrast, European inflation has remained stubbornly high, which has kept the ECB much more hawkish. In fact, core inflation (excluding volatile components like food and energy) is currently running at 6.8% year-over-year in the Eurozone. That compares to a 4.9% core CPI reading in the US. Up until September 2022, core inflation in the US was running higher than Eurozone core inflation – and then things switched, which shifted investor expectations and sent the dollar lower.

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    We expect this dynamic to continue as US inflation eases further, while Europe deals with higher inflation and a more hawkish central bank. Tighter policy does create some headwinds for European equities, but that’s offset by a stronger currency. Combine this with the tailwind that a weaker dollar creates for S&P 500 company earnings, and we are keeping our overweight to US equities while maintaining International developed market stocks at neutral. Emerging markets remain at underweight.

    Employment Back and Prices Sliding in New York
    Mon, Jul 17, 2023

    The economic calendar is having a quiet start to the week with only the Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Fed released today. The headline reading was expected to fall from an expansionary reading of 6.6 back into contraction in July. Instead, the index remained in positive territory at 1.1 which implies the New York region's manufacturing economy grew modestly in July.

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    Albeit growing, activity is weak with this month's reading registering in the 28th percentile of all months in the survey's history dating back to 2001. The month over month decline was driven by broad weakness across categories. In fact, only three moved higher month over month: New Orders, Number of Employees, and Average Workweek. Expectations indices similarly weakened with most categories at far more depressed levels by historical standards. Of the twelve categories, eight are in the bottom decline of readings.

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    As noted above, New Orders stood out as one of the only readings to move higher. At 3.3, that reading is far from elevated or at a new high by any stretch. Meanwhile, Shipments indicated a major moderation compared to last month. In June, Shipments registered a reading of 22, which was surprisingly elevated relative to other categories. Falling 8.6 points month over month, now that index is more in line with other areas.

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    The two other notably strong readings were with regards to employment. Since the end of the first quarter, Number of Employees and Average Workweek have both been making their way higher with the July readings tipping back into expansionary territory. In other words, on a net basis, businesses are once again hiring and increasing hours worked. However, businesses have also appeared to have slowed down their expected spending plans for technology and capex.

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    On the back of cooling inflation data last week that sent stocks higher in hopes of a more dovish monetary policy, the Empire Manufacturing survey also provided a cheery look into the region's inflation picture. Both Prices Paid and Prices Received have continued to fall dropping over 5 points month over month resulting in new new lows for each one. With regards to Prices Paid, the index is now at its lowest level since August 2020. Prices Received is similarly at the lowest reading in three years.

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    S&P 500's Best and Worst Performers During a Monster Week
    Mon, Jul 17, 2023

    After weaker-than-expected inflation data inflated the prices of just about every financial asset, there were some very big winners by the end of last week. The table below lists the 20 top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 last week, which includes eight stocks that rallied more than 10%. Double-digit gains are typically considered very good for an entire year, so when large-cap stocks move that much in a week, it's impressive. Topping the list, shares of Match (MTCH) gained nearly 14% followed by DR Horton (DHI), Domino's (DPZ), and MGM Resorts (MGM). Among these four top performers and the other stocks listed, it is a somewhat eclectic group of stocks. One well-represented group on the list is the homebuilders. Along with DHI, Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM) both also made the list. In terms of YTD returns, though, last week's biggest winners weren't solely the ones that have been rallying all along or the losers playing catch up; there was actually a little bit of everything. Three of the stocks listed (Etsy, Newell, and Sealed Air) are still down by double-digit percentages YTD while four (Pulte, Align, salesforce, and Monolithic Power) are up over 50%! Besides those extreme movers, there are also a few stocks that merely had single-digit YTD percentage gains before last week's spikes higher. One thing that just about all of these stocks have in common now, though, is that they headed into this week at short-term overbought levels of a varying degree.

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    In total, there were just 88 stocks in the S&P 500 that declined last week, and only 53 of those fell more than 1%. Of those 53 stocks, the table below lists the 20 worst performers which all fell more than 3%. This is also an eclectic group in terms of both their lines of business and their YTD performance heading into the week. The only stock down by double-digit percentages was Progressive (PGR) which now makes it down on the year as well. Right behind PGR, shares of Carnival (CCL) fell 9.5%, but unlike PGR, it's still up by over 100% YTD. Besides CCL, two other cruise operators (Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean) also sank during last week's rising tide, but they have also seen huge rallies on a YTD basis. Financials are another sector that was well-represented on last week's loser list. Besides PGR, State Street (STT), Allstate (ALL), Northern Trust (NTRS), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), and Travelers (TRV) all bucked last week's bullish trend. Unlike just about all of last week's winners which are now overbought, many of the week's worst performers are still trading within normal ranges of their 50-day moving averages.

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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2022-
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    S&P sectors for the past week-
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 7.21.23-
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    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
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    Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 7.21.23-
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for July 21st, 2023
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7/23/23
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================

    StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (7/24-7/28) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

    Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (7/24) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***


    Monday 7.24.23 Before Market Open:

    [​IMG]

    Monday 7.24.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Tuesday 7.25.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Tuesday 7.25.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Wednesday 7.26.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Wednesday 7.26.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Thursday 7.27.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Thursday 7.27.23 After Market Close:

    (T.B.A.)

    Friday 7.28.23 Before Market Open:

    (T.B.A.)

    Friday 7.28.23 After Market Close:

    (NONE.)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($MSFT $META $GOOGL $T $VZ $ENPH $BA $F $KO $INTC $TLRY $ROKU $GM $SNAP $MMM $CLF $GE $DPZ $SPOT $V $PACW $APLD $RCL $LW $CMG $XOM $TDOC $MCD $LUV $RTX $NUE $PTC $MA $PG $CVX $CROX $NEE $ALK $VLO $NXPI $NOW $ABBV $BMY $FSLR $GEHC $DXCM $CDNS $LRCX $TMO $ENVX)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Top of the morning StonkForumers! :coffee: Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 2 hours away from the US cash market close.

    GLTA on this Monday, July the 24th, 2023! :cool3:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Morning Lineup - 7/24/23 - Let the Earnings Deluge Begin
    Mon, Jul 24, 2023

    Despite a weak session in Europe to kick off the week, US equity futures are modestly higher this morning ahead of what will be a busy week for the markets with a ton of earnings reports and the Fed decision on Wednesday. The economic calendar is also busy and kicks off this morning with preliminary PMI data for the US Manufacturing and Services sectors. Tuesday we’ll get Richmond Fed, Case-Shiller housing updates, and Consumer Confidence, and then Wednesday’s expected rate hike will follow New Home Sales at 10 AM. The pace of data will only pick up in the second half of the week with jobless claims, GDP, Durable Goods, KC Fed, and Pending Home Sales, and then we’ll close out the week on Friday with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE, ECI and Michigan Confidence. So much for a slow Summer Friday!

    This morning’s weakness in Europe has primarily been sparked by a weak batch of PMI data for the region where the Manufacturing sector slid further into contraction territory while the Services sector clings to growth.

    You don’t have to look any further than the Dow’s 10-day winning streak to know that last week was a bit of a reversion to the mean trade for US stocks. At the sector level, the five best-performing sectors last week are also the five worst-performing sectors on a YTD basis. Meanwhile, the two worst-performing sectors – Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary – are two of the three best-performing sectors on a YTD basis. Technology, the best-performing sector YTD, managed to trade higher last week but just barely at 0.08%.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, July 24th, 2023.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #13 bigbear0083, Jul 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2023
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    The winning streak for the DOW is now at 11 :eek:
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Top of the morning StonkForumers! :coffee: Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours away from the US cash market close.

    GLTA on this Tuesday, July the 25th, 2023! :cool3:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Good Tuesday morning StonkForumers! :thumbsup:

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead today! ;)
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Morning Lineup - 7/25/23 - The Spinal Tap Streak
    Tue, Jul 25, 2023

    Based on where futures are trading now, the current Spinal Tap streak of eleven straight daily gains for the Dow is making a run for The Dirty Dozen. The gains are just marginal at this point, though, so it wouldn’t take much for things to turn south. Like futures here in the US, European equities are higher this morning but just barely so, and that comes following news that the latest survey of banking from the ECB showed that corporate loan demand has plunged to record lows. Not only that, but Germany’s Ifo index which tracks sentiment towards the economy dropped for its third straight month after six straight gains to start the year. Part of the reason European equities have managed to rally off intraday lows despite the weak economic data is China. Following reports of increased government stimulus in that country, Chinese stocks rallied more than 2%.

    Here in the US this morning, the only reports of note are the Case Shiller housing numbers at 9 AM followed by the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence reports at 10 AM. Consumer Confidence is expected to jump from 109.7 up to 112.0 while the Richmond Fed report is expected to weaken from an already negative reading of -7 to -10.

    As just about everyone knows by now, the Dow’s eleven-day winning streak is the longest since 2017 and just the sixth streak of as long or longer of duration since WWII. Just as eleven straight red spins on the roulette wheel would inevitably lead you to start betting on black thinking it was overdue, it’s natural to expect a pullback to even things out. One thing worth pointing out, though, is that following each of the five prior eleven-day winning streaks, the Dow was higher three and six months later all five times.

    [​IMG]

    While the Dow may have posted positive returns for eleven straight days now, not even one of its components has been higher for as many days. The longest winning streak of the index’s 30 components has been in UnitedHealth (UNH) at seven days, followed by IBM and Goldman Sachs (GS) each with six. Behind those three stocks, another three components have been up for five straight days. On the downside, just three components have traded lower for two or more days, and the longest of those streaks has been American Express (AXP) at four days.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, July 25th, 2023.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #18 bigbear0083, Jul 25, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2023
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  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    upload_2023-7-25_15-51-9.png

    Global econoday calendar for futures traders :D
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Well the DOW extends its winning streak once again :eek: While many active traders probably don't pay attention to the DOW as much as the SPX or the NASDAQ, people who don't watch the market all that closely probably would look at the DOW most often :D
     
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