Stock Market Today: January 22nd - 26th, 2024

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, January the 23rd, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 1/23/24 - How 'Bout That Dow?
Tue, Jan 23, 2024

It’s been a very quiet morning in the futures market as the Dow is indicated to open higher by less than 20 points while the S&P 500 is expected to gain less than three points. The Nasdaq is looking stronger, as it has all year, and is currently looking at a gain of 45 points. Europe has been just as quiet as things here in the US are as most major averages in the region are up or down less than five basis points (bps). The economic calendar is quiet again this morning as the Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey is the only report on the calendar.

On the earnings front, the pace of reports has picked up this morning with several Dow components reporting (discussed in the commentary section of this morning’s report), and after the close, we’ll hear from Baker Hughes (BKR), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Netflix (NFLX), Steel Dynamics (STLD), and Texas Instruments (TXN).

Just 40 days after crossing 37,000 for the first time in the first half of December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, “America’s stock market index” never looked back and crossed 38,000 yesterday for the first time. The path from 37,000 to 38,000 was certainly smoother than the run from 36,000 to 37,000 which took almost 20 times longer than the latest 1,000-point run. Even though the run from 36,000 to 37,000 was a move of less than 3%, it was the longest period between 1,000-point thresholds since the 2,119-day gap between 14,000 and 15,000 (a move of over 7%) and the sixth longest ever. Meanwhile, this latest 1,000-point move was the eighth fastest. Lastly, while it’s entirely possible and even likely that the DJIA will at some point pullback below 37,000, at this point the only other 1,000-point threshold that has never been crossed to the downside is Dow 5,000.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, January the 24th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 1/24/24 - Tech Stays in the Driver's Seat
Wed, Jan 24, 2024

The rally continues to roll this morning as positive earnings from Netflix (NFLX) and ASML drag the rest of the market up along with it. Even with the positive tone from NFLX, there are several high-profile duds this morning as DuPont (DD), Kimberly Clark (KMB), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are all down either in reaction to earnings or due to lowered guidance. Besides the earnings news, China cut interest rates by 50 bps in a somewhat surprising move.

In terms of economic data, PMI Manufacturing readings out of major European countries topped estimates even as they remain in contraction territory. Here in the US, mortgage applications increased 3.7% last week, and we’ll get flash PMI readings for the Manufacturing and the Services sector later this morning.

Following yesterday’s gain, the S&P 500 has risen in each of the last four trading days notching three all-time closing highs in the process. The index is now up 2% YTD, in what has been a rally driven by Technology and Communication Services which are both up over 5% YTD. Besides those two sectors, Health Care is the only other one outperforming the market. On the downside, six sectors are lower YTD, and five of them are down at least 2% on the year. It’s somewhat interesting to note that of the eleven sectors, the only two that are up or down less than 1% are Consumer Staples (+0.75%) and Industrials (-0.63%).

There’s quite a bit of disparity in sector performance among large caps, but in the small-cap space, performance is more uniform, but unfortunately, it’s to the downside. The S&P 600 is down 2.3% YTD and all but three sectors are down at least 2%, including Energy (-6.2%), Utilities (-4.2%), and Consumer Discretionary (-3.3%).

The lower chart shows the YTD performance spread between large-cap sectors and their small-cap peers. Sectors where there has been the largest disparity in favor of large caps are Communications Services and Technology. These are also the two sectors that have the largest concentration of mega-caps, and that illustrates how even within the large-cap space, performance is centered towards the companies with the largest market caps. While large caps have largely outperformed small caps YTD, there have been a couple of exceptions. As shown in the chart, in both the Real Estate and Materials sectors large caps have underperformed their smaller-cap peers.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, January 24th, 2024.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, January the 25th, 2024!




-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Lineup - 1/25/24 - The "Cullinan Six"
Thu, Jan 25, 2024

The market is currently digesting the economic equivalent of a Thanksgiving dinner in terms of the sheer quantity of reports. Like Thanksgiving, most of the platters were good. Headline GDP came in much higher than expected, inflation readings were in line with or better than forecasts, and Durable Goods were weaker than expected at the headline level but stronger after stripping out transportation. The only "yams" on the table were jobless claims, but even they weren't that bad as both initial and continuing jobless claims came in only modestly higher than forecasts. In reaction to the reports, futures have rallied as the S&P 500 is indicated to open up by about 35 basis points versus just modest gains ahead of the data.

119 years ago today, in a mine 18 feet underground, workers came across what was and still is the largest diamond ever discovered. Weighing in at 1.33 points, the 3,106-carat Cullinan diamond was immediately sold to the local government who then gifted it to Britain’s King Edward VII. The stone was ultimately cut into nine major stones (the Cullinan IX) and dozens of smaller ones, but the two largest, at 530 and 317 carats, respectively, remain on display in the Tower of London along with the other crown jewels.

The equity market’s version of the Cullinan IX is the Magnificent Seven, and while TSLA has had some trouble of late, the remaining “Cullinan Six” of Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Meta Platforms (META) have continued to hum. Through yesterday’s close, the stocks were collectively 22.5% above their 200-day moving averages (DMA) with AAPL the closest at 7.1% and NVDA a seemingly outrageous 43.3% above its 200-DMA. While that may sound crazy, back in the summer NVDA was trading at more than double its 200-DMA.



Putting them all together, the chart below shows the daily historical market cap of the “Mag Six” stocks since the start of 2023 along with the 200-DMA. As of Wednesday’s close, the “Mag Six” had a combined market cap of $12.02 trillion which was more than $1.85 trillion above its 200-DMA. To put that in perspective, that’s the equivalent of over 65% of the Russell 2000’s entire market cap, and if just those six stocks were to experience a correction and pull back to their 200-DMA, it would knock about 5% off the price of the S&P 500.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, January 25th, 2024.

 

here's a quick preview of next week's notable earnings releases courtesy of earnings whispers:

have yourself a terrific weekend ahead guys!