Stock Market Today: April 1st - 5th, 2024

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of April 1st!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:



Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

Stocks, Gold, & Crypto Soar In Q1 Despite Rout In Rate-Cut Expectations
THURSDAY, MAR 28, 2024 - 04:00 PM

Q1 macro was characterized by a vast divergence between 'soft' surveys crashing as 'hard' data drifting higher...



Source: Bloomberg

The strong 'hard' data - and sticky inflation - along with endless jawboning, drove rate-hike expectations drastically lower in Q1. 2024 expectations for The Fed crashed from almost seven cuts to less than three...



Source: Bloomberg

...and stocks did not even blink!



Source: Bloomberg

With the S&P 500 surging to its best start to a year since 2019 (outperforming Nasdaq)...



Source: Bloomberg

That's the 5th green month in a row...



Source: Bloomberg

And stocks are up for 18 of the last 22 weeks (it hasn't done more than that since 1989)...



Source: Bloomberg

Notably, and perhaps surprisingly, Q1's best performing sector was not tech... it was Energy (with Real Estate the only sector red in Q1). In fact in March, Energy stocks are up 10% while Tech is unchanged...



Source: Bloomberg

Some have argued that Q1's market strength reflects a growing belief that Republicans will win in November...



Source: Bloomberg

And don't let anyone tell you this has not been a multiple expansion - tech is now back at over 28x - its post-dot-com bust highs...



Source: Bloomberg

MTUM (momentum) saw its best start to a year... ever....



Source: Bloomberg

In fact, as Goldman shows in the chart below, High Beta Momo - the big Q1 outperformer - reversed its laggard performance in 2023...



Thematically, Bitcoin-Sensitive stocks, AI stocks, and anti-obesity drug stocks all outperformed in Q1, continuing the trend of 2023 gains...



AI-related stocks soared 24% in Q1 while stocks at risk from AI fell around 3% in Q1...



Source: Bloomberg

Anti-Obesity stocks soared in Q1, actually outperforming AI stocks and even GLP-1-at-risk stocks (e.g. WW) managed gains in Q1...



Source: Bloomberg

'Magnificent 7' stocks added a stunning $1.7 trillion in market cap in Q1...



Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the implied vol of the Mag7 is once again very elevated relative to the implied vol of the S&P 500. In July of last year, this signaled a big reversal (demand for hedges). In Jan of this year, it was a signal of chasers buying levered bets on the upside. What does it mean this time?



Source: Bloomberg

The strength in stocks and credit has dominated any rise in yields and crushed financial conditions to their loosest since before The Fed started their rate-hiking cycle...



Source: Bloomberg

US Treasuries were dumped in Q1 as rate-cut expectations plunged with the short-end modestly underperforming...



Source: Bloomberg

And while survey-based inflation expectations (UMich) are sliding, the market's expectation for inflation is anything but...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied in Q1, erasing around half of the Q4 losses...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar's strength was supported by yen weakness as the Japanese currency plunged to its weakest since 1990...



Source: Bloomberg

Not to be outdone, the yuan also tumbled in Q1...



Source: Bloomberg

Q1 was dominated by bitcoin headlines - as the newly minted ETFs saw unprecedented inflows...



Source: Bloomberg

Which helped push Bitcoin to a new record high (in USD)...



Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also soared in Q1 (up 55%) but Solana outperformed...



Source: Bloomberg

Another alternate currency - gold - also soared to a new record high in Q1...



Source: Bloomberg

And just when you thought NVDA was the big winner, Cocoa hyperinflates in Q1, up 135% YTD!



Source: Bloomberg

Oil, wholesale gasoline, and pump-prices all ripped higher in Q1 (especially March)...



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Goldman's Chris Hussey notes, it's times like these – when 'everything is awesome' – when it is best to assess the risks that swirl around the investment landscape. Here are a few to consider:

• A strong economic landing becomes a hard landing;
  
  
• Inflation is sticky, not transitory, and the Fed pushes back;
  
  
• The pandemic stimulus surge turns out not to be 'cost-less';
  
  
• Concentration raises 'key company' risk;
  
  
• Elections and geo-political risks.
  

And as a reminder, we've seen these 'everything is awesome' moments before...



Source: Bloomberg

And they never end well.

 

Here Comes the Usually Bullish Month of April


“April is a moment of joy for those who have survived the winter.” –English writer Samuel Johnson

The bull market continues and with one day to go in the first quarter, it is looking like more gains for stocks this month. The S&P 500 will also be up a very impressive five months in a row.

As we turn the calendar, we are now staring at the usually bullish month of April.

Here’s the high level thing to know. The S&P 500 in April has averaged 1.5%, the second best month of the year (only November is better). It is also the third best month the past 10 years and it is the fourth best month the past 20 years and in an election year.



Be aware that a lot of the gains in April historically take place the first part of the month.

As long-time followers know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. Could stocks fall in April? Sure, after the run we’ve had anything is possible, but the odds do favor more green numbers.

As we mentioned in Why a Strong Start to 2024 Is Bullish for the Rest of the Year, a big start to a year tends to see continued gains the final nine months. What is interesting is in many cases, a big start to a year means April will outperform as well.

For example, when stocks are up the first three months of the year, April is up 1.8% on average, better than the average April gain of 1.5%.



When the S&P 500 gained 10% during the first quarter (which might happen with a late rally this week) then April didn’t do quite as well, up 1.1% on average, but still higher at least and a pretty good number if you annualize it.



Turning the page from April, in the quote above from Samuel Johnson winters are portrayed as usually rough, but it has been a pure delight for investors this winter, as the S&P 500 is up five months in a row. We found the past 28 times the S&P 500 had a 5 month win streak it saw higher prices 12 months later 26 times, with above-average returns to boot.



We want to wish everyone a happy Easter holiday and if you have Spring Break this week or next week, remember to wear sunscreen!

All or Nothing Comes Back
Thu, Mar 28, 2024

Although the S&P 500 is ending the week little changed (as of this writing it is trading 7 bps higher today), yesterday's gain came in at a more impressive 86 bps. Besides the size of the move higher was that the gain occurred on very strong breadth with the S&P 500 registering an "All or Nothing Day". We consider any day an "All or Nothing Day" when the daily advance/decline line (the difference between the number of S&P 500 stocks rising and falling on a given day) comes in at above +400 or below -400. In other words, these are days when broad swathes of the market trade in the same direction.

Recently, all-or-nothing days have been hard to come by. On a rolling 200-day basis, only 4.5% of days have registered such readings. Following very elevated readings just one year ago, current levels are now down around some of the lowest of the past two decades.



For this calendar year, yesterday was also the first all-or-nothing day of the year. Since 2008, when the pace of all-or-nothing days experienced a structural increase in frequency as the popularity of ETFs ballooned, the only other year where the first occurrence came later in the year was 2017 when it took 72 trading days.



Not only have "All or Nothing Days" been fairly uncommon lately, but before yesterday it had been just over three months since the last one was observed. As shown below, that is one of the longer streaks of the past couple of decades. The last streak of such a length ended in late January 2020. Of course, there have been multiple streaks that have run much longer such as 2006 and 2018 which were nearly twice as long. Or going further back to the 1990s (not pictured in the chart below), there have been streaks that have gone on upwards of 561 trading days.



In the table below, we show the performance of the S&P 500 following the end of each other streak without an all-or-nothing day since 1990 that has lasted at least three months. This most recent streak just barely made that three-month mark, but following prior streaks performance was mixed. After these streaks have ended, the S&P 500 has traded higher only a little better than half the time one week, one month, and three months later. Additionally, median returns were weaker than the norm for all periods since 1990. Six months to a year later, the S&P 500 traded higher much more consistently, albeit again median returns have trailed the norm.



Good Friday Boosts End Q1 But Weakens Q2 Start

Over the past 34 years since 1990 the last trading day of Q1 has been plagued by end-of-quarter portfolio restructuring. DJIA is down 21 of 34 with an average loss of –0.24%. S&P is down 19 of 34 with an average loss of –0.04%. NASDAQ is up 20 of 34 with an average gain of 0.21%. Russell 2000 is up 25 of 34 with an average gain of 0.32%.

When the day before the Good Friday market holiday is the last trading day of Q1 it’s a boost. DJIA is up 7 of 10, average 0.18%. S&P is up 7 of 10, average 0.29%. NASDAQ is up 6 of 8, average 0.51%. Russell 2000 is up 6 of 7, average 0.47%.

First trading day of April/Q2 has a more positive history. Since 1990, DJIA is up 23 of 34 with an average gain of 0.21%. S&P is up 22 of 34 with an average gain of 0.13%. NASDAQ is up 18 of 34 with an average loss of –0.21%. Russell 2000 is up 17 of 34 with an average loss of –0.24%.

Easter Sunday the day before the first trading day of April/Q1 has the reverse effect, it’s bad. DJIA is down 7 of 10, average –0.44%. S&P is down 6 of 10, average –0.48%. NASDAQ is down 7 of 8, average –0.84%. Russell 2000 is down 7 of 7, average –1.12%.



Why a Strong Start to 2024 Is Bullish for the Rest of the Year


“Just a little bit more.” -John D. Rockefeller, founder of the Standard Oil Company and one of the richest men ever, when asked about how much money it takes to make one happy.

On the heels of about a 25% gain for the S&P 500 last year, stocks are up about 10% already in 2024. The logical question is, how much is too much? Well, like Rockefeller said long ago, maybe just a little bit more could be in store for the bulls.

For starters, the S&P 500 is up 17 of the past 21 weeks and up 27% over that timeframe. Never in history has that happened before, so we hope you’ve enjoyed this incredible run—it might not happen again for a very long time. The good news? More gains could be coming. We found six other times stocks gained at least 25% in 21 weeks and sure enough, stocks were higher a year later each time with an average return of more than 21%.



Stocks are about to gain each of the first three months of the year and we found that the rest of the year (so final nine months) were higher an incredible 19 out of 20 times after previous instances! Adding to the fun, April and Q2 tended to do even better as well.



Let’s not forget stocks soared in November and December as well, so they are up five months in a row heading into the usually bullish month of April. Sure enough, stocks tended to do better in April and Q2 after such long win streaks. Lastly, the rest of the year (so the final nine months) have never been lower when there has been at least a five-month win streak heading into April.



What about when Q1 gained 10% or more? Take note, 2024 isn’t there yet, but it is close with a couple of days to go. April and Q2 aren’t anything extra special, but the rest of the year was higher 10 out of 11 times, with only 1987 lower. 1987 was also up a record 20.5%, so that is a little different than the ballpark 10% in 2024. The average took a big hit those final nine months due to 1987, but the median was a rather solid 8.2%.



Looking more closely at the above, what got my attention was only 1976 and 2012 were election years and the returns the rest of those years were only 4.6% and 1.3%, respectively.

Lastly, we’ve seen very broad-based participation in this rally. Many large institutional research shops continue to (incorrectly, in my opinion) claim that only a few stocks are going higher and pulling the market along. I believe this isn’t true and really, never was.

We’ve been pushing back against this narrative for a year now. I specifically remember in May of 2023 being on TV and the other guest said something to the tune of, ‘…only seven stocks are going up, the overall market will crack the rest of this year due to this.’ On air I quickly noted how various advance/decline lines were making new highs and it simply wasn’t true. We apparently disagreed then and we disagree now. ‍♂️

Looking at last week, on Thursday we saw a huge surge in S&P 500 stocks hitting new 52-week highs. In fact, 118 hit a new high, the most in three years! I found 13 other times we saw an initial surge in new highs like that and wouldn’t you know, the S&P 500 has been higher a year out 13 of 13 times (not very unlucky if you ask me) for an average return of 12.0%.



That’s enough for now. We’ve been overweight equities since December 2022 and we’ve also been in the camp the economy would avoid a recession that whole time. We remain there and many of these studies do little to change my optimistic outlook.

Many people are on Spring Break this week and next, so if you are taking some time off, have fun! ☀

5-Month Streak Looks Like A Secular Bull Market

Not only is it bullish for April and the rest of the year. When November, December, January, February and March are up stocks have been in a secular bull market that extended to at least the next year.

Note a touch of weakness in Q2-Q3 in the Worst Six Months and some huge Q4 rallies. Last 9 months of the year up all 11 times, average gain 11.9%,

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 3.29.24-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 3.29.24-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for March 28th, 2024
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/31/24
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Q2 2024 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your quarterly market direction vote and stock picks for Q2 of this year 2024!

StonkForums April 2024 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market direction vote and stock picks for April of this year 2024!

StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (4/1-4/5) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/1) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 4.1.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 4.1.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 4.2.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 4.2.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 4.3.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 4.3.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 4.4.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 4.4.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 4.5.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 4.5.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($PAYX $PLAY $PVH $BB $NNOX $GOEV $SGML $AYI $LW $CALM $CAG $ONDS $LLAP $MVST $KRUS $LEVI $SMPL $LMFA $PPSI $ZOM $ANGO $LNN $SLP $BYRN $OMER $JAGX $DPSI $DUOT $ESCA $MNR $NGS $NYC $VERO $RPM $RDUS $VTSI $CLGN $EAST $ICCM $IZEA $PHGE $SNAX $GBX $RGP $GOMZ $LGMK $SPWH $GVP)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 1st, 2024 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week, month and quarter and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are less than an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, April the 1st, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 4/1/24 - Quiet Start to New Quarter
Mon, Apr 1, 2024

Welcome to the new quarter! It's a quiet start to the day, week, month, and quarter as much of the rest of the world remains closed in observance of Easter, but looking back, outside of a handful of countries, natural gas, and fixed income, the first quarter of 2024 picked up right where 2023 left off. You’d have to be living under a rock not to know that the S&P 500 ended March with a five-month winning streak, and along with it, the Nasdaq has also traded higher in each of the last five months in what was the second five-month winning streak in the last year.

In its history dating back to 1971, the current winning streak is the 25th time that the Nasdaq has had a winning streak of at least five months. The current streak is the fourth of the post-COVID era, but heading into Covid, the Nasdaq was also up for five straight months from September 2019 to January 2020 before falling over 6% in February 2020. Overall, for all of the 24 prior five-month streaks, the Nasdaq’s median performance in the following month was a gain of 1.2% with positive returns nearly 63% of the time. More recently, though, four of the last five streaks have ended in the fifth month.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, April 1st, 2024.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, April the 2nd, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 4/2/24 - A Pause That...
Tue, Apr 2, 2024

Is this the beginning of the sell-off the market has been avoiding for the last several months? Equity futures are lower this morning as rates have risen and Bitcoin is getting shellacked. Making matters worse for equities this morning is a sharp sell-off in the health insurers following updated Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates published after the close yesterday. Crude oil is up 1.5% while the breakout in gold continues, and that's not helping to make the case for rate cuts. While May has been off the table for weeks now, markets are also increasingly starting to price June out of the picture with odds now falling to not much better than a coin flip. The only economic data on the calendar this morning is Factory Orders and JOLTS which will both be released at 10 AM Eastern.

Outside of the US, the Japanese yen continues to trade at an interesting spot. After making a run to the ever-important 152 level two weeks ago, the Japanese yen has stalled over the last two weeks just shy of that resistance level. As shown in the chart below, 152 is a level where each of the prior two sell-offs in Q4 2022 and Q4 2023 were stopped in their tracks.



As a result of the stall, in each of the last ten trading days, the daily close for the yen has been rangebound between 151.26 and 151.69 for a total range of 0.28%. That’s narrow! The chart below shows the rolling 10-day high-low range of the yen's daily closing levels dating back to 1980. It’s hard to see it in the chart, but over the last 45 years, there have only been two other periods where the 10-day range was less than 0.30% as it is on pace to do today. Since 1980, the average 10-day range is 2.28%.



In the long-term chart of the yen below, the red dots show each time the rolling 10-day change dropped below 0.30%. The first occurred in early 1986 at a time when the yen was in the middle of a monster rally that took it from over 250 yen per dollar down to under 125 in less than three years. After that, the next time the range dropped below 0.30% didn’t occur until late 2019 and then again in June 2020. Leading up to and after those occurrences, the yen was in a sideways trend and didn’t do much over the following year before the current sell-off started in earnest. It’s a small sample size, but in each of the prior two examples, the trend that was in place leading up to the narrow ten-day range remained in place after.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, April the 3rd, 2024!