Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for July 31st - August 4th

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of July 31st!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:



Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Earnings: Sanofi, CNA Financial, Diamond Offshore, Vornado Realty, Owens-Illinois, Healthsouth, Pandora, Texas Roadhouse, Stifel Financial

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
10:00 a.m. Pending home sales
10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed manufacturing

• Tuesday

Earnings: Apple, BP, Pfizer, Archer Daniels Midland, CME Group, Cummins Engine, Eaton, Emerson, Martin Marietta Materials, Philips 66, Royal Caribbean, Sony, Sprint, Xerox, Beazer Homes, Pioneer Natural Resources, Allstate, Range Resources, FireEye, Newfield Exploration, Valvoline

Monthly vehicle sales

8:30 a.m. Personal income
9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing
10:00 a.m. Construction spending

• Wednesday

Earnings: AIG, Mondelez, AutoNation, Delphi, Humana, Generac, Garmin, Tesla Motors, Cheesecake Factory, Fitbit, Groupon, Entergy, Vulcan Materials, Molson Coors Brewing, Take Two Interactive, Tableau Software, Square, Williams Cos., Occidental Petroleum, MetLife

8:15 a.m. ADP employment
11:00 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
3:30 p.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams

• Thursday

Earnings: Aetna, Viacom, Kraft Heinz, Activision Blizzard, Etsy, AMC Networks, Cabela's, Yum Brands, Kellogg, Regeneron, Clorox, Adidas, Allergan, Siemens, GoPro, Wingstop, Weight Watchers, Becton Dickinson, AmerisourceBergen, Apache, Chesapeake Energy, Noble Energy, Teva Pharmaceutical

8:30 a.m. Jobless claims
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing
10:00 a.m. Factory orders

• Friday

Earnings: Allianz, Toyota, Cinemark, Trivago, Cigna, Aon, Buckeye Partners, Sempra, Newell Brands

8:30 a.m. Employment report
8:30 a.m. International trade

 

Turmoil In Tech, Trannies, & Tobacco As Dollar Dumps To 2-Year Lows On Dismal Data
Some folks' stocks turmoiled but the message is clear...



Mixed bag on the week with Trannies tumbling most since Brexit, Dow outperforming on earnings beats, and tech weighing on Nasdaq and S&P...






Today's goal was to get the S&P green on the week and the instrument of choice was monkeyhammering the VIX again...BUT it failed!





Retailers and Energy stocks were best on the week and Utes worst...





Despite equity gains today, protection remained bid as VIX had its biggest weekly gain in 2 months...





Tobacco stocks got smoked...





FANG Stocks had their first down week in the last 4...





Jeff Bezos had an eventful week...





Treasuries ended the week higher (despite weak data, a dovish Fed) as we suspect the yuge ATT issuance and Risk-Parity deleveraging had an impact...





However, 30Y rallied back lower in yield today after GDP's miss...





The Dollar Index tumbled back towards the post-Fed lows today after bouncing yesterday... This was the lowest weekly close for the dollar since May 2015





WTI had its best week since the first week of Dec 2016, soaring almost 9% on the week...ending the week above its 200DMA just shy of $50...





Gold rose for the 3rd straight week - breaking through its 50-, 100-, and 200-DMA and back to pre-Fed Rate-Hike levels...





Once again 'hard' data is plumbing new lows as 'soft' survey data limps higher on a magic carpet ride of hope...





This is probably nothing...





Finally, this... blow-off top next week?

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Vacation Head

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Ah…yes. It is FINALLY that time of the year when I take a week off with the family for our summer vacation.

Don’t worry, I have been fiendishly writing for the past two weeks and have blog posts all ready to go for next week. You won’t left hanging.

However, let me just leave you today with one parting thought.

The chart below is the S&P 500 on a WEEKLY basis going back to 1992. While it is clear the bullish trend is currently intact, which suggests the markets could indeed rise further, the deviation from the 1-year moving average is pushing more historical extremes.



Furthermore, the two circles on the lower part of the chart show the longer-term “buy/sell” signals which have been historically accurate in adjusting risk in portfolios. As you will notice, just like in late 1998 and early 1999, there was a sell signal which was reversed WITHOUT the market dropping into a bear market. The subsequent rally pushed asset prices and valuations to extremes in early 2000.

I don’t need to remind you what happened next.

Currently, we see the same build up in exuberance, leverage, and speculation. The sell signal in 2015/2016 has been reversed following the Trump election. More importantly, just like in 1999, the indicators are running at historically very high levels.

I probably don’t need to remind you what will happen next.

It is just a function of time.

In the meantime, the bullish trend remains intact. So, we participate for now but we do so with a high level of caution and very tight stop losses.

So, with that said, this is what I will be reading on vacation.

Politics/Fed/Economy

• The Greater Moderation by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
• Partisan Conflict Is High by Jeff Sommer via NYT
• Fed To Start Unwinding Balance Sheet Soon by Akin Oyedele via BI
• Democrats Try To Rebrand Themselves As Populists by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• New Math Fetish Has Turned Economics Into Astrology by Alan Jay Levinovitz via Aeon
• Gary Cohn Is The Wrong Choice For The Fed by John Tamny via Forbes
• Is The Economy Really Different This Time by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners
• 4-Signs The Economy Is Stalling by Stephen McBride via Mauldin Economics
• The False Premise Of GOP Tax Cuts by Editorial via New York Times
• Draghi Did Not Keep His Promise by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners
• Fed Won’t Raise Rates Until Christmas by Pedro Da Costa via BI
• All Signs Point To Slowdown In Inflation by Lakshman Achuthan via Bloomberg
• The Quiet Demise Of Austerity by James McCormack via Project Syndicate

Markets

• What You Should Be Worried About by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch
• Howard Mark’s Bubble Checklist by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• How To Survive The Coming Market Storm by Richard Harris via South China Morning Post
• ETF’s Are The Biggest Danger To Markets by The Heisenberg via Seeking Alpha
• Byron Wein Says Market In Uncharted Territory by Joe Ciolli via BI
• Will Perma-Bears Ever Learn by Taylor Dart via Seeking Alpha
• USD Breakdown, What Next? by Erik Swarts via Market Anthropology
• USD Close To The Edge Of The Cliff by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• Wall Street Is Bracing For A Significant Correction by Steve Liesman via CNBC
• Stunning Lack Of Declines Highlights Surreal New Normal by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
• Earnings Outlooks Falling Rapidly by Anora Mahmudova via MarketWatch
• Why Financials Can’t Lead The Market Higherby Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders
• Over-valuation Not Due To Passive Investing by David Merkel via The Aleph Blog
• Stock Market Bulls Are Wrong, It Will End Badly by Doug Kass via The Street
• This Is Why It’s So Hard To Be A Contrarian by Stefan Cheplick via Medium

Research / Interesting Reads

• Risk Has Been Abolishedby Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
• There They Go Again by Howard Marks via OakTree Capital
• Perceived Vs. Real Risk Tolerance by David Merkel via The Aleph Blog
• Dividend Cuts Accelerate In Q3 by Political Calculations
• 3-Examples To Consider In Retirement Planningby Paul Brown via NYT
• The Next Housing Bubble Is Here by Mark Hanson via Zero Hedge
• FLASH CRASH: Seth Klarman Weighs In On HFT by Jody Chudley via Daily Reckoning
• 7-Habits To Help Your Kids Be Successful by Vanessa McGrady via Forbes
• The Reason Everyone Resents Millennials by Bill Murphy Jr via Inc.
• Student Borrowers Face Relentless Debt Collector by Michelle Conlin via Reuters
• Taking Money Off The Table Is The Best Investment by Michael Douglas via Motley Fool
• Maybe We Are Thinking About Productivity All Wrong by Neil Irwin via NYT
• If The Stock Market Makes You Rich, Why Are So Many Poor? by Me via Market Watch
• Singer: “I’m Very Concerned About The Global Economy by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• The Salient Features Of Past Bull Market Peaks by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• Breakout Barrage – Is It Really Bullish? by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
• Podcast: William White On Experimental Monetary Policy by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

“Sometimes buying early on the way down looks like being wrong, but it isn’t.” – Seth Klarman

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-


S&P sectors for the past week-

 

August’s First Trading Day Fails to Deliver

From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017 (page 86), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain more points than all other days. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute greatly to this phenomenon ranking second worst among other First Trading Days in the 2017 Almanac and is last in the upcoming 2018 edition of the Almanac. In the past 21 years DJIA has risen just 33.3% (up 7, down 14) of the time on the first trading day of August. Several sizable gains in those up years, have mitigated the average first day percent change, but the median performance is a more sizable loss. Over the past six years, DJIA and S&P 500 have both declined five times.

August, Worst Month of Post-Election Year

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA and S&P 500 month from 1988-2016 with average declines of 1.3% and 1.0% respectively. August is also the worst month for NASDAQ (–0.3%), Russell 1000 (–0.9%) and Russell 2000 (–0.7%) over the same time period. In post-election years since 1953, Augusts’ rankings are little changed: #12 DJIA, #11 S&P 500, #11 NASDAQ (since 1973), #11 Russell 1000 and #10 Russell 2000 (since 1981).

Contributing to this poor performance since 1987; the shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998 with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped a record 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Sizeable losses in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015 of over 4% on DJIA have widened Augusts’ average decline. A strong August in 2014 of S&P 3.8% and NASDAQ 4.8% preceded corrections of 7.4% and 8.4% respectively from mid-September to mid-October.

Typical August Pattern: Mid-Month Surge

Over the last 21 years the market’s performance in August has been abysmal. August ranks dead last for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000. August is second worst for Russell 2000. Average losses range from 0.6% by NASDAQ to a 1.3% decline by DJIA. Based upon the above chart the best opportunity for a long trade begins on the eighth or ninth trading day of August and lasts until the thirteenth. Early month performance is dominated by average declines and August generally finishes on a negative note with declines on the penultimate and last days.

The Lack Of A Pullback Is A Global Thing
Posted by lplresearch

Pullbacks so far in 2017 have been historically small for equities here in the U.S., with the S&P 500 Index’s last 5% correction occurring more than a year ago and the last 3% dip as far back as nine months ago. Incredibly, the largest pullback so far in 2017 for the S&P 500 is only 2.8%, marking the smallest intra-year pullback since 1995 and the second smallest going back to the Great Depression. Now here’s the catch: This lack of a substantial pullback is not limited to the U.S.

Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “There must be something in the water around the globe, because the S&P 500 isn’t the only major index that hasn’t pulled back much in 2017, and we’ve never seen anything like this before. 1995 is widely considered one of the least volatile years ever, with the max intra-year pullback for the S&P 500 standing at a record low of 2.5%. But did you know that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index pulled back 18.4% that year while the Japanese Nikkei lost 26.4% from peak to trough? Well, this year EM has pulled back only 3.0% and the Nikkei 6.5%, making 2017 stand alone as the year that global volatility stopped.”



Since 1990, if you add up the max intra-year pullback on the S&P 500, EM, Nikkei, and the MSCI EAFE Index (Europe/Asia/Far East), the total combined pullback from the four major indexes so far this year is only 14.6%, well below the previous record of 32.3% from 2005.

What does it mean? History would suggest that what we’ve seen so far this year is extremely rare, and to see it continue through the end of the year would be even rarer. Some type of increased volatility around the globe would be perfectly normal. When it comes, it will be important to remember that volatility is just that: normal. We appreciate that it can be easy to get lulled into a sense of comfort after such a long stretch of market serenity, but that isn’t how markets usually work.

The S&P 500 Is Breaking Out, Now What?
Posted by lplresearch

With the S&P 500 breaking out to new all-time highs, the big question is: How high can it go? For starters, the S&P 500 has made seven new all-time highs this month, the most for any one month since November 2014 had 12 new all-time highs. Here’s where things get interesting: The previous two years before this breakout represent one of the tightest two-year ranges ever for the S&P 500. What does that mean?

Think about it—all we hear about is how volatile equities have been recently. From the surprise China yuan devaluation that induced a 14% pullback starting last August, to the more than 10% dive to start 2016 due to global growth concerns—volatility has been everywhere in the past year. Not to mention how quickly stocks bounced back after both of those sudden drops. Of course, these shocks came on the heels of more than three-and-a-half years without so much as a 10% correction, so maybe the volatility of the past year is normal and everyone just forgot what volatility is?

Last week, we noted the S&P 500 was more than 20% above the February lows and one could argue it is starting a new bull market. In reality, this should probably be considered a continuation of the bull market that has been alive for the past seven years. Building on this, in the two years ending in June 2016, the S&P 500 traded in a range of less than 18%—one of the tightest two-year ranges for the S&P 500 ever. Again, we’ve had some big drops and bounces recently, but looking at the big picture shows there is a good reason to think that the S&P 500 has simply consolidated in a sideways pattern for the past two years—in essence, catching its breath after the huge gains during the previous years.

Going back to 1980, three other times saw tight two-year ranges like we are in now, and all three took place ahead of multi-year bull markets. The two-year range before early 1985 kicked off a +80% rise in the S&P 500 over the next two-and-a-half years before the crash of 1987. Then, the tight range of the mid-1990s led to the late 1990s bull market, which saw the S&P 500 soar more than 200% during the next five-plus years. Lastly, a tight two-year range in 2004 and 2005 occurred before a 24% rally in the next 20 months.



In conclusion, breaking out of this tight range after two years of consolidation could potentially be a good sign for continued equity gains. For more on the subject of breakouts—and also what worries us about equities—be sure to read our Weekly Market Commentary, due out later today.

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 7.31.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 7.31.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 8.1.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 8.1.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 8.2.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 8.2.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 8.3.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 8.3.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 8.4.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 8.4.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 7.28.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.30.17 - T/A Case Study on USD/CAD
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

TSMFers come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (7/31-8/4) <-- click there to cast your weekly vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (7/31-8/4) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (7/31) <-- click there to cast your daily vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join and participate with us on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Here are the most anticipated earnings releases for this upcoming week ahead:
($AAPL $TSLA $AAOI $SHOP $SQ $S $ATVI $UAA $CHK $P $GRPN $PFE $OCLR $FEYE $FIT $ICPT $COHR $OLED $GPRO $NRZ)


Apple, Inc. $149.50
Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, August 1, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.57 per share on revenue of $44.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.42 to $1.61 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.56% with revenue increasing by 5.46%. Short interest has decreased by 14.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.2% above its 200 day moving average of $133.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 12, 2017 there was some notable buying of 18,710 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Tesla, Inc. $335.07
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, August 2, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.76 per share on revenue of $2.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.87) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 21% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 93.41% with revenue increasing by 103.93%. Short interest has decreased by 11.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $267.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 24, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,185 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. $96.64
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, August 3, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.36 per share on revenue of $115.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.36 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.09 to $1.19 per share on revenue of $106.00 million to $112.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,260.00% with revenue increasing by 109.29%. Short interest has increased by 130.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 87.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 115.4% above its 200 day moving average of $44.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,136 contracts of the $100.00 call expiring on Friday, August 4, 2017. The stock has averaged a 14.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Shopify Inc. $92.98
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 1, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $143.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $142.00 million to $144.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 65.63%. Short interest has increased by 49.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 43.7% above its 200 day moving average of $64.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 24, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,692 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. The stock has averaged a 7.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Square, Inc. $26.20
Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 2, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $536.79 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.02) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.03 to $0.05 per share on revenue of $532.00 million to $538.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 500.00% with revenue increasing by 22.41%. Short interest has increased by 49.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 36.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 52.0% above its 200 day moving average of $17.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 12, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,846 contracts of the $24.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 10.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Sprint Corporation $8.22
Sprint Corporation (S) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Tuesday, August 1, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $8.19 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.00 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 2.22%. Short interest has decreased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $8.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 6,384 contracts of the $8.00 put expiring on Friday, August 4, 2017. The stock has averaged a 12.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Activision Blizzard, Inc. $61.45
Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, August 3, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $1.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.38 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.82% with revenue decreasing by 22.93%. Short interest has decreased by 15.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.3% above its 200 day moving average of $47.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 17, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,062 contracts of the $67.50 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. The stock has averaged a 6.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Under Armour, Inc. $19.44
Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, August 1, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $1.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. The stock has drifted lower by 6.2% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 24, 2017 there was some notable buying of 5,910 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, August 4, 2017. The stock has averaged a 17.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Chesapeake Energy Corp. $5.06
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, August 3, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $1.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue decreasing by 33.42%. Short interest has increased by 52.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.1% below its 200 day moving average of $5.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 15,732 contracts of the $5.00 put expiring on Friday, August 4, 2017. The stock has averaged a 6.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Pandora Media Inc. $9.47
Pandora Media Inc. (P) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:55 PM ET on Monday, July 31, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.24 per share on revenue of $364.86 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.22) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $360.00 million to $375.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 100.00% with revenue increasing by 6.37%. Short interest has increased by 37.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.3% below its 200 day moving average of $11.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 14, 2017 there was some notable buying of 5,049 contracts of the $12.00 put expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

 

so what's on everyone's radar as we head into the month of august? anyone else also thinking we could finally start to see some pulling back in the indices? august is notorious for some squirrelly action over the years ... cue 2015 you guys remember this right?

 

Mornin' TSMF!

Here are your Monday morning stock movers & market news-

• 7/31 Monday Stock Market Movers & News <-- click there to view!

 

dj30 leading things again? hmm ... i will need to go dig up some statistics and see what the outcomes were of overall market direction for the proceeding days/weeks/months when the dj30 was leading the overall market at the highs while the rest of the market was either in chop or starting to pull back some ... i think i have seen this divergence play out a few times in past years but can't really remember with 100% certainty how they played out in the end ... i'm thinking it was a bearish overall setup for the market but that is a complete assumption on my part w/o any actual stats to back it up ... i'll see what i can find! but even so, might not mean anything here ... but still would be interesting to see what those past instances resulted in!

 

Best and Worst Performing Stocks on Earnings
Jul 31, 2017

Through last Friday, the average one-day change of the roughly 1,000 stocks that have reported earnings this season is -0.78%. This means investors are doing more selling than buying immediately following earnings reports this season. But of course…we’ve seen our fair share of winners this season. Below is a list of the stocks that have reported EPS that have gained more than 8% on their earnings reaction days.

As shown, Scientific Games (SGMS) ranks first with a one-day gain of 27.19% on July 24th. Arkansas Best (ARCB) ranks second with a gain of 25.35%, followed by iRobot (IRBT), Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), and Lemaitre Vascular (LMAT). Other notables on the list of big winners this season include Boston Beer (SAM), Netflix (NFLX), Align Tech (ALGN), Boeing (BA), Baidu (BIDU), First Solar (FSLR), and the New York Times (NYT).



On the downside, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has been the biggest loser with a one-day decline of 26% on 7/28 (it reported after the close on 7/27). Tile Shop (TTS) ranks 2nd at -25.93%, followed by MarineMax (HZO), PCM (PCMI), Echo Global (ECHO), and Triumph Group (TGI). Other notables on the list of losers that fell 10%+ on their earnings reaction days include Seagate (STX), Akamai (AKAM), Twitter (TWTR), and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD).

 

it'll be interesting to see if it can actually hold above $50 this time around ... seemed like the last couple of times when it got to these levels it was short-lived, but perhaps the 3rd times the charm?

i can't open my platform right now to draw in the resistance trend line but looks like we are breaking through!

 

here are the % changes for the major indices as we put the trading month of july in the books-