1. U.S. Futures


Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for August 7th - 11th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Aug 4, 2017.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Welcome TSMF to the trading week of August 7th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:[​IMG]
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Tyson Foods, Marriott, CBS, Twilio, Booz Allen Hamilton, La Quinta, Chicago Bridge, Manitowoc, Tenet Healthcare, Avis Budget

    10:45 St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard

    1:25 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

    2 p.m. Senior loan officer survey

    3 p.m. Consumer credit

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Disney, SeaWorld, Dean Foods, Virtu Financial, Monster Beverage, Hertz Global, Malinckrodt, Dean Foods, International Flavors and Fragrances, Tesoro, Blue Buffalo, Hostess Brands, Lions Gate, CVS Health, Michael Kors, Norwegian Cruise Line, Ralph Lauren, Zillow, Sealed Air, Icahn Enerprises, Valeant Pharma, Wayfair, Hertz Global

    6:00 a.m. NFIB survey

    10:00 a.m. JOLTs

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Mylan Labs, Wendy's, Liberty Broadband, Agrium, Iamgold, Weibo, 21st Century Fox, Jack in the Box, EchoStar, Royal Ahold, Scripps Networks, Wolverine Worldwide, Avnet, Great Plains Energy,Flowers Foods, Ambac Financial

    8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs

    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

    • Thursday

    Earnings: News Corp, Kohl's, Macy's, NVIDIA, Nordstrom, Blue Apron, Petrobras, Canada Goose, Snap, Wheaton Precious Metals, Camping World

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    10:00 a.m. New York Fed President William Dudley briefing on wage inequality in region

    2:00 p.m. Federal budget

    • Friday

    Earnings: Acushnet, JC Penney

    9:40 a.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan

    11:30 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Dow Gains 600 Points In 9 Days; S&P, Bonds, Gold & Dollar Unchanged
    Despite the payrolls beat, "hard" data in the US economy closed the week lower for the 5th week of the last 6 to the lowest since May 2015... as The Dow surges for the 9th day in a row to the 8th record close in a row...

    [​IMG]

    Because...





    So this happened...

    [​IMG]



    From the payrolls print, bonds and bullion were sold, stocks were flat...

    [​IMG]



    Equity Futures also struggled post-payrolls with dip-buyers unable to sustain any gains...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow just keeps on rising but Tech stocks suffered their second weekly drop in a row - Small Caps were worst as The S&P managed a small green close

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    FANG Stocks suffered their worst week since June...

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    Wells Fargo stumbled on revelatiosn from its 10Q that there could be more fake accounts and legal costs could be significantly higher than reserves...

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    Blue Apron had quite a day - plunging on news that it was slahing its workforce... and not rebounding on news that in fact it was merely moving its workforce...

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    Treasury yields ended the week lower (except 2Y) despite a major kneejerk higher (in yield) today on the jobs data...

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    The dollar index ramped higher today on a combination of the jobs data and chatter about HIA2 - that tagged the high stops from last week's Fed dead cat bounce and while the dollar ended the week higher, it was fading back to unch rapidly into the close...

    [​IMG]



    The Loonie was the week's biggest loser against the greenback and the Euro the biggest winner..

    [​IMG]



    All eyes were on EURUSD this week but today's payrolls data slammed the pair lower... for now...

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    Gold had its worst day in a month today after payrolls printed, erasing the week's gains but holding at the intersection of the 50- and 100DMA at around $1260...

    [​IMG]



    WTI Crude ralied today but was unable to turn green on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Finally..."You Are Here"

    [​IMG]
     
    Jrich likes this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Just recently, the New York Post a very interesting article entitled “Millennials should start taking stocks seriously.” While I am sure the author is well-intentioned, it is a very misguided article in its assumptions.

    The author jumps right in with both feet:



    “Many millennials are missing the chance to accumulate significant assets.”


    There are so many problems with that statement alone its tough to find a starting point.


    First, the stock market is not, and never has been, the “solution” to building wealth. If you look around the world, there might be a very small handful that have actually built a fortune by investing alone. That is the exception, not the rule.

    The real wealth builder, even for guys like Ray Dalio, Larry Fink, Warren Buffett and others, was not from just investing their own money in the financial markets but by building businesses that invested “other peoples money” in the financial markets from which they collected heavy fees and compensation over time.

    In America, the great “wealth equalizer” is, and always has been, entrepreneurship. But, unfortunately, according to a recent Federal Reserve study, since the financial crisis business equity ownership has declined markedly.

    [​IMG]

    Well, except for those in the top 10%.

    [​IMG]



    (Important Note: This decline in business owner equity goes a long way in explaining why the employment reports don’t reflect economic reality. As I discussed in “Is The BLS Overstating Jobs,” if business owner equity is on the decline, the number of business “births” assumed by the BLS may have inflated employment by over 5-million jobs since the financial crisis. Such inflation would explain the lack of wage growth.)

    Secondly, investing in financial markets was never intended to be a “wealth builder,” but rather an “inflation adjustment” for “savings” over time.

    Wall Street has built vast fortunes for select individuals by effectively removing “the fools from their money.” The run-up in asset prices generates the “greed” necessary to entice individuals to “speculate” in the financial markets with their “savings.” The Wall Street media machine continues to push by continually producing more marketing material on why “you are missing out” on vast riches which keeps money in motion. “Money in motion, creates fees for Wall Street.”

    Unfortunately, as shown by repeated Dalbar studies, due to a variety of psy12chological and other investment related mistakes like “chasing performance,” individuals do NOT win the long-term investment game.

    [​IMG]

    Over a 30-year period, investors barely generated returns sufficient enough to offset the rate of inflation. Add-in the effect of taxation and the outcome was far worse.

    Furthermore, what the author completely misses is the importance of “time” and the impact of “loss.”

    Individuals only have a finite amount of time to invest for retirement. While it is great to show 100 year plus charts of the return of an invested dollar in the financial markets, that is not reality. Most individuals, by the point in life that they have available capital, have at best 15-20 years to invest.

    [​IMG]



    Notice that “fees” are not an issue. The real problem for individuals can be reduced to just two primary issues: a lack of capital to invest and psychology. I will not deny that “costs” are an important consideration when choosing between two specific investment options; however, the emotional mistakes made by investors over time are much more important.”

    The lack of capital is hugely important in the ability to generate “wealth” from the stock market. There has not yet been an investment program invented that did not require actual capital to invest at the beginning. Even according to recent surveys:



    “The Bankrate.com survey found that 52% of Americans have no stock market holdings at all. None. In 2002, it was just 33%. Among those who don’t invest today, 53% said they don’t have the money, and 21% said they don’t trust advisers.”

    The median value of financial assets for families has fallen sharply since the turn of the century. Note that there are nearly 60% MORE Americans with no stock market holdings today than in 2002. This aligns with the Federal Reserve study which showed a significant plunge in families with holdings.

    [​IMG]

    Again, except for those in the top 10 percent of the population.

    [​IMG]

    Of course, after two very nasty “bear markets” since the turn of the century is not surprising that few individuals have capital remaining to invest or trust the “financial advisors” who lost it for them.

    The impact of a bear market is vastly important to future returns. I dug this article up by Sara Max from Time.com wrote:



    “In fact, investors who’ve had the bad luck of getting in at the very top of a market have ultimately come out ahead – provided they stayed the course. Consider this analysis from wealth management tech company CircleBlack: An investor who put $1,000 in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index of U.S. stocks at the beginning of 2008 (when stocks fell 37%) and again in early 2009 would have been back in positive territory by the end of 2009.”

    This is what my Dad would have called “PPA – Piss Poor Analysis.”

    While it is true that someone who invested a $1 at the peak of the market in 2008 and another dollar at the bottom in 2009 would have now gotten back to even, unfortunately, they were not able to regain the 7-years to retirement lost in doing so. The importance of “lost time” can not be overstated enough.

    While there have been massive breakthroughs in science and technology, no one has yet discovered the secret of “eternal youth.”

    By the time that most individuals achieve a point in life where incomes and savings rates are great enough to invest excess cash flows, they generally do not have 30 years left to reach their goal. This is why losing 5-7 years of time getting back to “even” is not a viable investment strategy.

    The chart below is the inflation-return of $1000 invested in 1995 with $100 added monthly. The blue line represents the impact of the investment using simple dollar-cost averaging. The red line represents a “lump sum” approach. The lump-sum approach utilizes a simple weekly moving average crossover as a signal to either dollar cost average into a portfolio OR move to cash. The impact of NOT DESTROYING investment capital by buying into a declining market is significant.

    [​IMG]

    Importantly, I am not advocating “market timing” by any means. What I am suggesting is that if you are going to invest into the financial markets, arguably the single most complicated game on the planet, then you need to have some measure to protect your investment capital from significant losses.

    While the detrimental effect of a bear market can be eventually be recovered, the time lost during that process can not. This is a point that is consistently missed by the ever bullish media parade chastising individuals for not having their money invested in the financial markets.

    The reality is that most of these individuals have never lived through a real bear market, nor have they ever suffered the losses of significant wealth during the process. Their time will eventually come, and as anyone who has been around the financial markets for as long as I have (28 years) will tell you, your attitude about “risk” changes significantly when the “bear begins to maul you.”
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Is Dow Theory Sell Signal Still In Play?
    [​IMG]
    Lack of confirmation or synergy between the two oldest U.S. market benchmarks triggered a Dow Theory Sell Signal July 26. When the backbone of our economy that transports goods across the nation does not perform well it is an indication that there is underlying economic woe. It is not always right and like everything else it is subject to interpretation, but it does have a solid track record and is worth heeding here as our other indicators are pointing to a summer selloff around the corner.

    In the 7 trading days since the July 26 Dow Theory Sell Signal when DJIA hit another new high and the Dow Transports failed to stay in sync and began its recent decline DJIA is up 1.5%, while DJTA is down 3.6%. That’s not a big move up for DJIA, but it is still up. Since this Dow Theory Sell Signal, DJTA has fallen rather sharply, down 6.1% from July 14 to August 1. All this weakness in the Transports has occurred while the Dow Industrials continues to log multiple new highs.

    These Dow Theory Sell signals take some time to pan out, but the recent historysuggests that usual selloff and low following a Dow Theory sell signal may be on its way shortly. After experiencing a typically strong post-election July VIX is still low but turning higher. Sentiment is high and stocks are higher, so the time seems nigh for the August-September slide.

    Sentiment as measured by the trusty Investors Intelligence Bullish and Bearish Advisors % continues to move evermore bullish to over 60% bulls and down to under 17% bears with an expanding spread between bulls and bears to near-peak levels of 43.7%. These are the levels associated with market corrections. At the same time volatility remains super low, but ticking up from historic lows under 9 intraday. If volatility begins to pick up and sentiment retreats look for the market to turn lower.

    Volatility begins to pick up
    [​IMG]
    Exactly one week ago today, on July 26, the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) hit its lowest level ever in records dating back to 1990 at 8.84. Since then the VIX has been quietly ticking higher and finished today at 10.30. A late July low by VIX is consistent with its historical seasonal pattern displayed above in the lower pane (shaded yellow box). If VIX tracts its historical pattern going forward then increasing volatility from now until sometime in October can be expected.

    August was the best, Now the worst
    [​IMG]
    There is some dispute regarding the market’s historical track record during the month of August. Some will say it is one of the best months of the year, others say it is the worst. The correct answer is August was the best, but now it is the worst. Based upon DJIA data starting in 1901, August once averaged a handsome 2.3% gain (1901-1949) and was the top DJIA month of the year, up 35 times in 48 years. From 1950 to 2016, August is the third worst month, up 37 times in 67 years and over the past 30 years (1987-2016) August has been the worst DJIA month with an average 1.1% loss.
    [​IMG]
    In the above chart we have plotted three seasonal patterns using various beginning and ending date ranges. First off, let’s focus on the blue line. This is what DJIA did between 1901 and 1949. Back then farming and agriculture was a significant portion of the U.S. economy and thus the stock market. Harvest season and its cash flows was a prime driver of DJIA. The market generally started the year off quietly drifting sideways to slightly higher until making a leap higher through July and August to an early September high just as harvesting season was also reaching a peak.

    Around 1950, just after the end of WWII, farming and agriculture’s sway over the market began to wane as the middle class began to blossom and the modern day consumer appeared. Fewer and fewer people were living and working on farms, instead they choose the city and suburban life. Instead of working the fields, people are now on vacation in August. This caused a shift in the market’s behavior as well, represented by the green, post WWII (1950-2016) line. Over the past 67 years, DJIA has been reaching a seasonal high in May just as summer begins and the school year nears an end. DJIA then wanders throughout the summer months and into mid-Autumn before rocketing higher to finish the year. Note how little the pattern has changed over the past 29 years (red Line) when compared to the green line.

    Average Stock Declines From 52-Week Highs
    Aug 4, 2017

    The Dow and other major US equity indices have been seemingly hitting new all-time highs on a daily basis, and although not many are likely to admit it on Twitter, if you look at your portfolio it is likely that at least some of your individual holdings are down from their most recent highs. It may sound strange, but in a well-diversified portfolio, you should have at least some stocks that are trading down from their 52-week highs. Otherwise, it is likely not very diversified! This is because not all stocks participate in the market to the same degree or at the same time. Currently, within the S&P 1500, which includes large cap, mid cap, and small cap stocks, that is exactly what we are seeing.

    The first chart below shows the average percentage that stocks in the S&P 500 (large cap), S&P 400 (mid cap), and S&P 600 (small cap) are trading from their respective 52-week highs. In the S&P 500, the average stock is trading down 10.2% from its 52-week highs, while in the small cap S&P 600, the average stock is down 19.8%. Overall, stocks in the S&P 1500 are down an average of 15.2% from their one-year highs. It is common for small cap stocks to be trading further from their 52-week highs than large caps, but we would be the first to admit that an average decline of 19.8% is pretty high. That’s close to bear market territory for the average small cap stock! In fact, of the 600 stocks in the S&P 600 Small Cap Index, 37% (223) are down more than 20% from their 52-week highs. The average decline of 10.2% in the S&P 500, however, is actually pretty normal for an environment like the present.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at individual sectors, the main sector dragging down the averages is Energy, where the average stock in the sector is trading down 36% from its 52-week high. Behind Energy, Telecom Services is next at -22.3%, followed by Consumer Discretionary (-20.3%), where brick and mortar retail stocks are weighing on things significantly. Sectors where the average stock is down the least from their 52-week highs are Utilities (-3.7%) and Financials (-10.0%). That 3.7% reading in the Utilities sector is extremely strong, especially at a time when the market is in rally mode and defensive sectors like Utilities typically underperform on a relative basis.

    [​IMG]

    The final chart below breaks out the average decline from 52-week highs by sector and market cap. Here you can see how the weakness in the Energy sector is really confined to its mid and small cap stocks. While the average large cap Energy sector stock is down 24% from its 52-week high, mid cap stocks in the sector are down an average of 40.1%, and small cap stocks are down 46%! The only other segment where stocks are down more from their 52-week highs is Mid Cap Telecom Services (-47%), but that group only contains two stocks (Frontier-FTR and Telephone and Data Systems-TDS). In terms of segments holding up the best, all three market cap ranges of the Utility sector are currently within 5% of their respective 52-week highs. Outside of Utilities, the only other segment that is within 5% of a 52-week high is Financials.

    [​IMG]

    Bloomberg IPO Index Remains Sluggish
    Aug 3, 2017

    One index that hasn’t been participating in the market’s rally this year is the Bloomberg IPO Index, which is made up of companies that have IPOd within the past year. We just wanted to show you a quick chart to highlight the weakness for IPO stock performance.

    Below is a chart comparing the performance of the Bloomberg IPO Index to the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the bull market began back in March 2009. As shown, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up by far the most at +467%, which might make you assume that IPOs would also be doing pretty well. But even the Dow 30 has outperformed the IPO Index and by quite a bit at that! Since the bull market began, the Dow is up 236% on a simple price return basis, while the IPO index brings up the rear in this group with a gain of just 163%. Over the past year, the IPO index has basically traded completely sideways.

    [​IMG]

    US Stock Market Continues to Lose Ground Versus Rest of World
    Aug 2, 2017

    With the drop in the US dollar and the outperformance of international stocks, the US stock market is losing share versus the rest of the world even though it’s in rally mode. While the S&P 500 is up 10% year-to-date, the United States’ stock market cap as a percentage of total world stock market cap has dropped from 37.70% all the way down to 35% so far this year.

    Just after Trump’s victory last November, the US quickly gained a lot of market cap versus the rest of the world, but that gain has more than evaporated at this point. Since the election, the US has now lost more than one and a half percentage points of world stock market cap share. That’s the opposite of what Trump was hoping for. So even though the President has been touting the stock market’s gain lately, when you look closely, it has actually lost share versus the rest of the world since his victory.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-
    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 8.4.17
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 8.7.17 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 8.7.17 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 8.8.17 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 8.8.17 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 8.9.17 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 8.9.17 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 8.10.17 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 8.10.17 After Market Close:
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    Friday 8.11.17 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.11.17 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    TSMFers come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-
    In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-
    We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join and participate with us on these.

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    For those of you not on Twitter, you're missing out. :p

    Here is my Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/bigbear0083

    That is where you guys will be seeing all the latest tweets for TSMF. I'll be keeping that updated daily from here on out.

    I just finished tweeting out our daily & weekly contest winners for this week, and also gave kudos to our weekly market poll leader! :D

    You guys can also see Twitter updates via the page widget on the front page as well for those who don't care too much for Twitter. :p
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    As promised here are the most anticipated earnings releases calendar for this upcoming week ahead:
    ($NVDA $VRX $SNAP $DIS $JCP $WB $TWLO $PCLN $ON $CVS $SINA $PLUG $M $TSN $NTES $YY $CBI $LITE $MAR $FDC)
    [​IMG]

    NVIDIA Corp. $167.21
    [​IMG]NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, August 10, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.69 per share on revenue of $1.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.76 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 56.82% with revenue increasing by 37.25%. Short interest has decreased by 39.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.6% above its 200 day moving average of $114.07. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 31, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,425 contracts of the $170.00 call and 2,166 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, August 11, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.2% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. $15.13
    [​IMG]Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 8, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.97 per share on revenue of $2.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.71% with revenue decreasing by 7.45%. Short interest has decreased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% above its 200 day moving average of $14.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 11,198 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 25.2% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Snap Inc. $13.52
    [​IMG]Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, August 10, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $187.17 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.12) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 13% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 96.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 24.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 2, 2017 there was some notable buying of 6,899 contracts of the $15.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 21.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Walt Disney Co $107.69
    [​IMG]Walt Disney Co (DIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 8, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.53 per share on revenue of $14.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.56% with revenue increasing by 2.26%. Short interest has decreased by 11.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% above its 200 day moving average of $106.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $120.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. The stock has averaged a 2.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    J.C. Penney Company Inc $5.44
    [​IMG]J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, August 11, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $2.86 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue decreasing by 1.99%. Short interest has increased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% below its 200 day moving average of $6.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 26, 2017 there was some notable buying of 6,551 contracts of the $4.00 put expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. The stock has averaged a 7.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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    Weibo Corporation $78.77
    [​IMG]Weibo Corporation (WB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 9, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.36 per share on revenue of $248.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.38 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $240.00 million to $250.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 69.36%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.8% above its 200 day moving average of $56.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,200 contracts of the $100.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Twilio, Inc. $29.21
    [​IMG]Twilio, Inc. (TWLO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, August 7, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $86.23 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.10) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.11 to $0.10 per share on revenue of $86.00 million to $88.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 56.00% with revenue increasing by 33.67%. Short interest has increased by 16.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.7% below its 200 day moving average of $30.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,375 contracts of the $35.00 call and 3,000 contracts of the $35.00 put expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. The stock has averaged a 8.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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    Priceline Group Inc.
    [​IMG]Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, August 8, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $14.27 per share on revenue of $3.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $14.53 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $13.30 to $14.00 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.64% with revenue increasing by 17.38%. Short interest has increased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.6% above its 200 day moving average of $1,699.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 3, 2017 there was some notable buying of 593 contracts of the $2,100.00 call expiring on Friday, August 18, 2017. The stock has averaged a 6.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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    ON Semiconductor Corporation $15.10
    [​IMG]ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 PM ET on Monday, August 7, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.32 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.38% with revenue increasing by 49.24%. Short interest has increased by 72.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.9% above its 200 day moving average of $13.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    CVS Health $77.97
    [​IMG]CVS Health (CVS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, August 8, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.31 per share on revenue of $45.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.33 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.29 to $1.33 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.76% with revenue increasing by 3.74%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $78.92. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 3, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,125 contracts of the $75.00 put expiring on Friday, August 11, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.6.17 - All coiled up and hissing.
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  13. tbw875

    tbw875 Active Member

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    Looking forward to seeing the Retail sector ER's!
    But do I call Macy's or Blue Apron....hmm...
     
  14. Jrich

    Jrich Active Member

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    Looks like a good trade setting up here with SIRI

    Almost sitting on the axis line from the range it just broke out of...... Looking at the volume under that big up bar, id say there is demand in this area!

    Screenshot_20170806-152619.png
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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  16. Jrich

    Jrich Active Member

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    Pulled the trigger this morning.... got some $5.50 calls 11 days out..... maybe ill finally put one in the W column
     
  17. Jrich

    Jrich Active Member

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    Ahhh!.... Rookie mistake.... that was a nasty spread i just bought into... instantly down 40%

    Gonna take a hefty move to pull myself out of this hole:eek:
     
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are a couple of interesting market stats per Ryan Detrick:
    • The SPX traded in a weekly range of only 0.56% last week, the 2nd smallest weekly range using data back to 1970.
    • The range for the SPX the past 2 weeks was only 0.98%. Since '70, only a periods in '93 and '16 were smaller.
    • The absolute value of the previous 15 SPX changes is only 2.09%. Going back to '28, that's the 4th smallest ever and smallest since '69.
    • The SPX hasn't traded in a 1% range either of the past two weeks. Have to go back to 1993 the last time it did that three weeks in a row.
    • The SPX hasn't traded in a 1% daily range in 25 trading sessions. Incredibly, it has only done it 6 times this year.
    • Since '90, SPX avg yr has 134 days that trade in a range >1%. The 6 this yr is astronomically out of proportion. 39 in '93 is the record.
    • Dow with a shot at being up 10 consecutive days today. This would be the 2nd 10-day win streak of the year. That hasn't happened since '59.
    • The Dow has closed at an all-time high 8 consecutive days. Going back to 1900, this is only the 10th time that has ever happened.
    • SPX hasn't closed up or down 0.3% for 12 consecutive days. 10 in a row in '66 and '61 were the previous records.
    Talk about a really narrow range lately. Wow! :eek:
     
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Market not doing much today (again) :p Tech stocks outperforming today after lagging the market lately
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    looks like the dj30 will be notching yet another new ATH close today ... that'll be its 36th of the year which is inching closer to the next most ATH closes for a year from 1997 which came in at 39 new high closes ... the most ever for a year is from 1987, that year it registered 49 record closes ... looks like there is a decent shot at making a run for that record with a good 4 months left to go in the year

    [​IMG]
     
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