Daily Stock Market News

Slowing job growth catalyses bond recovery while AAPL sinks stock market - Newsquawk US Market Wrap

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 - 04:06 PM

• SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar down.
• REAR VIEW: Mixed US jobs report, headline short of expectations, unemployment surprisingly falls, earnings rise; Strong German factory orders; OPEC+ JMMC recommends no change in output policy; Strong AMZN report; AAPL revenue declines Y/Y with iPhone & iPad sales light.
• WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW: Highlights include US & China CPI, BoJ SoO and UK GDP. To download the report, please click here.
• CENTRAL BANKS WEEKLY: Previewing RBI and Banxico; Reviewing RBA, BoE and BCB. To download the report, please click here.

MARKET WRAP
Stocks were lower Friday in a choppy session after the sell-off in Apple (AAPL) post-earnings extended and reversed initial gains in the major indices, that's despite the spike higher in Amazon (AMZN). The VIX hit levels north of 17, the highest since late May, while the SPX lost c. 25 handles. NFP saw 187k jobs added (exp. +200k), with yet another sizeable net downward revision, catalysing a massive Treasury rally with the belly strongest (2yr -12bps, 10yr -15bps, 30yr -10bps), although the above-expected average hourly earnings figures raised some eyebrows from an inflation perspective. The Dollar was broadly sold among the majors, aside from CAD after the surprise fall in Canadian jobs, with the Euro and Yen outperforming among the majors - the DXY hit MTD lows of 101.73. The crude complex extended its Thursday's gains after the Saudi/Russia cut extension announcements, marking its sixth consecutive W/W gain, no doubt aided by the softer Dollar.

US
NFP: 187k non-farm jobs were added in the US in July, missing the 200k estimate and towards the bottom end of analyst forecasts which ranged between 185-300k. The prior was also revised lower to 185k from 209k, with the net revisions at -49k. Note that private payrolls jumped to 172k from 128k, while government payrolls were responsible for a much smaller 15k jobs in July vs the high 57k in June. Pantheon Macroeconomics writes, "The big picture here is that the wave of post-Covid catch-up hiring now appears to be over, and modest downward cyclical pressure is now the dominant force in payrolls." Elsewhere, the unemployment rate moved lower to 3.5% from 3.6%, including the prime-age (25-54yr) rate falling to 3.0% from 3.1%, at the same time, the participation rate remained unchanged at 62.6%, indicative of the strength of the labour market in the face of central bank tightening. The average hourly earnings metrics were hot, rising 0.4% M/M (exp. 0.3%, prev., 0.4%), with the Y/Y rising 4.4% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.4%), although one also has to consider the average hours worked falling to 34.3 in July, back to the joint-lowest post-COVID. Furthermore, UBS flags seasonal effects in wages, "Average hourly earnings should get pushed up by a calendar shift, just like in July 2022, and then that undue strength should flip to a softer gain than otherwise next month." As far as the Fed is concerned, there have been some differing views publicised on wage inflation, with some, particularly Goolsbee (v, dove), believing wages are a lagging indicator. However, Fed Chair Powell at the FOMC said although the Fed does not think wages were an important part of inflation in the first year of COVID, he would say they are probably going to be an important issue going forward, and Powell was calling for a further softening in labour market conditions to help with their inflation fight. In all, the BLS report is not a groundbreaking development in either direction, although the more moderate pace of jobs added (albeit hardly indicative of a labour market rollover) has seen a slight dovish shift in the market's Fed path after the data with implied probabilities for September and November hikes reducing on the margin, with the market reluctant to bake in another hike. The more pivotal reports are still to come for the Fed, with the July CPI (Aug 10th) and August CPI (Sept 13th) still due before the September 20th FOMC, while the August NFP report (Sep 1st) will be assessed in a similar vein to these July figures.

FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE (U3) FUTURES SETTLED 29 TICKS HIGHER AT 111-04+

Treasuries rallied with the belly leading after the softer pace of US job growth catalysed short-covering into the weekend. 2s -10.7bps at 4.789%, 3s -11.8bps at 4.470%, 5s -14.3bps at 4.158%, 7s -14.6bps at 4.112%, 10s -13.5bps at 4.054%, 20s -11.6bps at 4.374%, 30s -9.7bps at 4.207%.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI +1.8bps at 2.390%, 10yr BEI +0.4bps at 2.375%, 30yr BEI +0.9bps at 2.344%.

THE DAY: Treasuries were mixed entering the NY session on Friday with the front-end having leaked lower through the APAC and London morning, while the long-end had just a mild bid after paring a bounce in the Tokyo morning. A surge in German factory orders provided some weight to sellers, but otherwise, there were few catalysts for USTs. A lack of further selling in JGBs Friday could have only helped stop the rot in US duration. Albeit, T-Notes lost their support at the July low (110-05) late in the London morning, hovering a few ticks beneath ahead of the US jobs report.

The NFP miss saw T-Notes (U3) trade choppy at first, jumping from 110-05 to 110-13 immediately before swiftly hitting a low of 109-24, all within a minute. But, as the dust settled, the front end sustained a strong bid that filtered out the curve, with the heavy beat long-end struggling at first to track higher, steepening the curve. The front-end strength petered out later in the NY morning, but the belly strength sustained to become the best-performing part of the curve in the afternoon, while the long end also played catch-up, paring a majority of Thursday's losses. T-Notes ultimately peaked at 111-04 ahead of settlement.

On the week, and taking into account the recovery on Friday, US 2yr yields have fallen 9.7bps, 5yr have fallen 2.1bps, 10yr have risen 9.9bps, and 30yr have risen 18.6bps, with the 30yr yields posting their second largest W/W rise of the year. While in TIPS, 2yr yields have fallen 5.5bps, 5yr have risen 2bps, 10yr have risen 11.5bps, and 30yr have risen 16.3bps.

STIRS:

• SR3U3 +1bps at 94.60, Z3 +3.5bps at 94.655, H4 +6.5bps at 94.925, M4 +9.5bps at 95.29, U4 +12bps at 95.68, Z4 +12.5bps at 95.995, H5 +13.5bps at 96.235, M5 +14bps at 96.385, U5 +14bps at 96.45, U6 +15.5bps at 96.54, U7 +15.5bps at 96.475.
• SOFR flat at 5.3% as of Aug 3rd, volumes fall to USD 1.413tln from 1.416tln.
• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 1.794tln (prev. 1.777tln) across 102 counterparties (prev. 105).
• EFFR flat at 5.33% as of Aug 3rd, volumes flat at USD 105bln.

NEXT WEEK (US items bolded):

• MON: Fed's Bostic, Bowman, Consumer Credit, BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Industrial Output (Jun), EZ Sentix Index (Aug).
• TUE: Fed's Harker, NFIB, International trade, IBD/TIPP index, 3yr auction, EIA STEO, Chinese Trade Balance (Jul), German Final CPI (Jul), Canadian Trade Balance (Jul).
• WED: 10yr auction, Chinese Inflation (Jul).
• THU: Fed's Bostic, CPI (Jul), Jobless Claims, US budget, 30yr auction, RBI Announcement, Banxico Announcement, OPEC MOMR.
• FRI: US PPI (Jul), US Uni of Michigan Prelim. Survey (Aug), IEA OMR, UK GDP (Jun), French/Spanish Final CPI (Jul).

REFUNDING: US to sell USD 42bln of 3yr notes (prev. 40bln) on Aug 8th, USD 38bln of 10yr notes (prev. 35bln) on Aug 9th, and USD 23bln of 30yr bonds (prev. 21bln) on Aug 10th; all to settle August 15th.

CRUDE
WTI (U3) SETTLED USD 1.27 HIGHER AT 82.82/BBL; BRENT SETTLED USD 1.10 HIGHER 86.24/BBL

The crude complex ended the day, and the sixth consecutive week, with sustained tailwinds from Saudi and Russia supply cuts and the weaker Dollar, in spite of a mixed NFP report. WTI (U3) and Brent (V3) ground higher since the US jobs metrics, printing highs of USD 83.24/bbl and 86.65/bbl, respectively. While headline-driven price action was thin Friday, the OPEC+ JMMC took place where the group, as expected, recommended no change in output policy and as announced Thursday, Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of 1mln BPD for another month to include September that can be extended or extended and deepened. Further on the OPEC footing, Russian Deputy PM Novak said Friday the deal in June was implemented by 100% and oil production has remained at 9.5mln BPD. Novak added Russia is fully committed to the OPEC+ deal, and global oil demand is to grow by 2.4mln BPD in 2023 but they will closely monitor the market. Separately, following the drone attack in Russia, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) said the movement of ships resumed in Novorossiysk. Next week, aside from US CPI, scheduled risk events are sparse amid the quiet summer months, which could give more weight to the inventory figures after the massive crude draws reported this week.

BAKER HUGHES: For the week ending August 4th, oil rigs fell for the eighth consecutive week to 525, down 4 W/W, while nat gas were unchanged at 128, with total down 5 to 659. US drillers cut oil and gas rigs for the fourth week in a row.

EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.53% at 4,478, NDX -0.51% at 15,274, DJIA -0.43% at 35,065, RUT -0.20% at 1,957.

SECTORS: Technology -1.49%, Utilities -1.2%, Consumer Staples -1.02%, Real Estate -0.99%, Industrials -0.65%, Financials -0.42%, Health -0.36%, Communication Services -0.31%, Materials -0.26%, Energy +0.03%, Consumer Discretionary +1.91%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +0.37% at 15,952, FTSE 100 +0.47% at 7,564, CAC 40 +0.75% at 7,315, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.71% at 4,335, IBEX 35 +0.66% at 9,368, FTSE MIB -0.41% at 28,586, SMI +0.14% at 11,103.

EARNINGS: Apple (AAPL) revenue declined 1% Y/Y, showing a fall for the third consecutive quarter. In addition, products, iPhone and iPad sales missed. Do note, both EPS and revenue beat with iPhone sales growing by double digits in China during Q3, while iPhone reached all-time revenue record in India. Furthermore, the Q3 revenue guide was light. Amazon (AMZN) surpassed expectations on the top and bottom line with the sales breakdown beating on all major metrics, such as AWS and cloud; next quarter revenue guidance also strong. Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat on EPS and revenue and expects gross bookings to grow in Q3. Fortinet (FTNT) missed on the top line alongside cutting FY revenue guidance. Note, EPS beat and raised FY profit outlook. DraftKings (DKNG) posted a shallower loss per share than expected and beat on revenue, monthly unique players and ARPU; lifted FY23 guidance. Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) next quarter revenue guide was well short. Note, EPS surprise profit and revenue beat. Icahn Enterprises (IEP) posted a surprise loss per share and missed on revenue alongside cutting quarterly dividend to USD 1.00/shr (prev. 2). Atlassian (TEAM) surpassed St. expectations on the top and bottom line with Q1 revenue guide also strong. Motorola Solutions (MSI) topped consensus on the top and bottom line and lifted FY profit view noting momentum entering H2 is strong. Exec said it continued to see strong demand in all technologies and regions and had record Q2 orders and record-ending backlog.

STOCK SPECIFICS: Tupperware Brands (TUP) finalized an agreement with its lenders to restructure its existing debt obligations, improving overall financial position by amending certain credit obligations and extending the maturity of certain debt facilities to allow it to continue with its turnaround efforts. Nikola (NKLA) CEO will step down effective immediately due to a “family health matter.” Google (GOOGL) to face slimmed-down antitrust suit over search deals, winning ruling to limit antitrust claims, according to Bloomberg.

WEEKLY FX WRAP
NFP, BoE, RBA, PMIs, and US rating downgrade from Fitch headline the busy week that was

DXY - A choppy week overall, influenced by Fed comments, risk aversion, bond selloff, and tier 1 economic data – with the index looking to end the European session towards the bottom week’s 101.53-102.84 parameter. The Index this week was largely fuelled by the rise in yields, with the US 10yr rising from a 3.9270% low to levels comfortably above 4.00% - with the whole US curve above the level. The downside in bonds emanated from Fitch downgrading US’ rating on the eve of the Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement which confirmed increased coupon sizes. Fitch downgraded US long-term ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA', with a stable outlook. Fitch cited increasing debt, weak governance, and anticipated fiscal decline over 3 years, leading to debt standoffs. Analysts suggested the decision is to have a limited impact on markets. (full Newsquawk analysis can be found here). Datawise, we had softer ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS which printed beneath expectations, but had a modest impact. The US labour market report saw the headline miss forecasts (187k vs exp. 200k), while hawkish elements included higher-than-expected wages alongside an unexpected dip in the unemployment rate. DXY on balance saw losses as the dust settled, with the index falling from 102.50 to 102.25 in an immediate reaction, before extending to new lows of 102.10 around 15 minutes later. Fed pricing has seen a 25bp hike implied probability for September fall marginally to 17% from 20%, with the implied Nov meeting Fed rate falling slightly to 5.41% from 5.43%; Dec'24 implied Fed rate has fallen to 4.16% from 4.23% - the Dollar selloff was attributed to unwind of the bond selloff earlier in the week. DXY rose above its 100 DMA (102.33) and the 50 DMA (102.39) throughout the week before finding daily support in between the DMAs on Thursday, just to be taken down on Friday under 102.00, below the 100WMA around 102.06, and below Tuesday’s 101.84 low.

JPY, CHF - A volatile week for the JPY driven by the BoJ's actions and traditional haven status, whilst the CHF saw influence from risk aversion and domestic data. JPY was initially hit after the BoJ’s unscheduled JGB auction undermined its back-door YCC tweak on Friday last week, with a second unscheduled auction undertaken on Thursday. However, with risk aversion largely dominating the latter half of the week, USD/JPY looks to end the European week around the middle of a 140.68-143.88 weekly parameter and above its 100 DMA at 141.27. The CHF was on a softer footing following the region's CPI print which cooled from the prior reading to be in line with the market's forecast at 1.6% and below the SNB's Q3 CPI YY forecast of 1.7%. CHF later reversed course amid the risk tone alongside Friday’s post-NFP losses in the USD, with USD/CHF looking to end the European week relatively flat within a 0.8664-8805 weekly range.

AUD, NZD, CAD - Overall, a downbeat week for the Antipodeans. Pressure emanated from central bank decisions and broader risk sentiment, with the Aussie and Kiwi both set to end the European week lower. CAD also looks to end the week on a softer footing as it failed to garner much traction from rising oil prices and was undermined by its own jobs release. Antipodean kicked off the week on a firmer footing amid more Chinese stimulus talks, but thereafter slumped following the RBA’s latest announcement whereby it maintained its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.10% (vs split views between 25bps hike and unchanged) and noted that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required. The RBA reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that, while it also reaffirmed a priority to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe and expects inflation will be back in the 2-3% target range in late 2025. Adding fuel to the fire was the surprise contraction in Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (although Services topped forecasts later in the week) – AUD/USD looks to end the week with losses in a 0.6514-6739 weekly range. Kiwi saw pronounced downside the day after the RBA following New Zealand Q2 unemployment rising more than expected (3.6% vs exp. 3.5%, prev. 3.4%), while the Labour Cost Index missed expectations on both QQ and YY terms – which could provide the RBNZ with some comfort ahead of the 16th August decision. The Loonie failed to benefit from the pre-JMMC crude price action while a surprise shedding of jobs in July and an expected uptick in the unemployment rate led to initial CAD weakness. USD/CAD looks to end the week toward the top of its 1.3151-3393 weekly range.

EUR, GBP - A mixed week for the European majors with the former just about able to eke out a week of gains on the back of the post-NFP dollar sell-off. Sterling dealt with the BoE which came to market with a 25bps rate hike, taking the Base Rate to 5.25% and disappointing some outside calls for a larger 50bps move. The decision to raise rates was subject to an 8-1 vote with Dhingra the lone dissenter whilst the magnitude of the rate hike was subject to hawkish dissent from Mann and Haskel who backed a 50bps increase. The forecasts embedded in the accompanying MPR saw the 2023 inflation projection held at 5% whilst the two-year forecast was revised higher to 1.5% from 1.0%, but ultimately still seen below target and therefore indicative that the MPC judges the current rate path to be tighter than required to return inflation to mandated levels. From a growth perspective, GDP is seen at 0.5% per annum from 2023-2025. ING suggests a "hike in September seems likely, but by November we think the news on services inflation and wage growth should be looking a little better". GBP/USD looks to end the European week with modest losses within a 1.2620-2872 parameter after trading on either side of its 50 DMA (1.2734) on Friday. The single currency meanwhile largely digested revisions lower in S&P Global PMIs, which underscored increasing recession risks in Europe, whilst services signalled a contraction in business activity. The PMIs also showed divergence – HCOB writes that “While the French service companies have put the brakes on their activity, Spanish companies are still expanding at a rather healthy pace, despite a considerable slowdown since the first quarter. Spanish companies are also still in a hiring mood, while Italian firms have started to cut employment. The contrasting economic performance is making the already-difficult job for the ECB even more challenging.” Aside from that, it was largely a Dollar and Sterling-driven story for the Euro. EUR/USD ekes mild gains heading into the final hours of this week’s European session, looking to end the week towards the top of a 1.0912-1045 range.

Yuan - The Chinese Yuan's actions during the week were largely influenced by PMI data and expectations surrounding potential stimulus measures. The surprise contraction in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday had a notable impact, leading to a rise in USD/CNH. The week also featured mixed signals from other economic indicators, and the market closely watched the government's policy actions and export controls. From a central bank perspective, commentary from a PBoC official suggested RRR cuts, open market operations, MLF and all structural policy tools need to be flexibly used to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system, adding that the PBoC will guide banks to effectively adjust mortgage interest rates and support banks to reasonably control the cost of liabilities. USD/CNH looks to conclude the European week modestly firmer in a USD 7.1327-2130 parameter.

 

Dovish CPI reaction unwinds while yields hit highs after weak auction - Newsquawk US Market Wrap

THURSDAY, AUG 10, 2023 - 04:19 PM

• SNAPSHOT: Equities flat/down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up.
• REAR VIEW: Core & headline Y/Y inflation cooler-than-expected; Jobless claims rise, but not outside recent peaks; Weak 30yr auction; Daly said whether the Fed hikes or holds is premature; Banxico leaves rates unchanged, as expected; TPR to acquire CPRI; DIS to raise price on its ad-free streaming tier
• COMING UP: Data: French Unemployment Rate, UK GDP, Trade Balance, US PPI, UoM (Prelim) Speakers: RBA's Lowe, Bullock, & Kohler.

MARKET WRAP
The highlight of the day was the US CPI report which was in line for the M/M metrics but Y/Y metrics were marginally softer than expected. The data sparked a knee-jerk dovish reaction with the Dollar hitting session lows while T-Note futures hit session highs. Stocks also saw gains on the release but they then went on to hit session highs just after the cash equity open with the SPX hitting a high of 4527. However, the gains had gradually pared throughout the remainder of the US session to hit a low of 4457, paring all gains and more before gradually recovering into the closing bell to see a flat finish, albeit the RUT closed red. T-Notes had also pared the initial CPI rally, with downside accelerating in the wake of the weak 30yr bond auction to see yields at highs across the curve heading into the APAC session, particularly the long-end. The upside in yields helped support the Dollar to see DXY finish with marginal gains and at session highs, paring all the initial weakness seen in the immediacy of the CPI release. Nonetheless, despite the unwind of the initial move, money market is now only pricing in a 10% probability of a 25bp hike at the September meeting, vs 15% pre-data. Note, alongside the US CPI release, the jobless claims data saw a notable jump on the weekly initial claims, rising above all analyst forecasts, albeit it was not as high as the jump seen a few weeks ago. Attention on Friday turns to US PPI and the Prelim UoM survey, particularly the inflation expectations.

US
CPI: Headline M/M rose by 0.2%, in line with expectations and the prior pace of 0.2%, while the Y/Y was cooler than expected at 3.2% (exp. 3.3%), but it did accelerate from the prior 3.0% pace. A similar story was seen in the core metrics, the M/M rose 0.2%, in line with the expected and prior 0.2% and the Y/Y rose by 4.7% vs the Refinitiv estimate of 4.8% but was cooler than the prior 4.8%. Looking into the release, the index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase, accounting for over 90% of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2% in July after increasing 0.1% in the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3% M/M while the index for food away from home rose 0.2%. The energy index rose 0.1% in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics write the details for the July core print were mixed, but they see no cause for a major alarm. The desk also notes that core services ex-rents rose 0.2% following an unchanged print in June, and warn of a "pop up" in the August metric. However, the consultancy remains doubtful this will lead to a sustained surge higher, adding "The trend in core services CPI ex-rents has broadly tracked our re-adjusted version of the NFIB selling prices index, which clearly signals a further downshift". Looking ahead, Pantheon note the core CPI print in August will be a close call between 0.1% and 0.2%, stating "Three decent core CPI prints is not definitive, but we think it will be enough to dissuade the Fed from another hike, unless the August payroll report, due on September 1, is really ugly".

JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial jobless claims rose to 248k from 227k, above the expected 230k and above the top end of the forecast range. Continued claims dipped to 1.684mln (prev. 1.7mln) underneath consensus of 1.710mln. Note, the seasonal factors had expected an increase of 1,363 from the prior week. On the headline, Oxford Economics thought that the closure of the Yellow trucking company (employed ~30k) would lift claims, but there was no clear indication those workers boosted claims in the latest week as Ohio accounted for a large share of the increase, with Yellow’s HQ in Tennessee. Nonetheless, OxEco thinks the Fed's July rate hike will be the last of the cycle, but the risks are tilted in favor of one more rate hike if the labor market doesn't soften. On jobless claims, the consultancy thinks jobless claims will rise later in the year as the economy falls into a recession, but anticipate job losses and increases in jobless claims during this recession will be modest compared to prior downturns.

DALY (2024 voter), on the CPI data, said it was as expected but it does not mean victory is ours on inflation and the Fed still has more work to do. Looking ahead, she said whether the Fed hikes or holds, it is premature to say. The San Fran President added they are a long way from a conversation about rate cuts, and will expect to have that conversation next year, but it will depend on the economy and path of inflation. Moreover, Daly reiterated her data-dependency and said there is further information coming prior to the September meeting and before year-end. On inflation, Daly noted the key is good price inflation, which is coming down, and shelter price inflation, which we project is coming down, while the price the Fed will be watching is core services inflation ex-housing, as it has not made much progress so far. Concluding, Daly said she needs to see the supercore inflation back to pre-COVID levels before feeling confident Fed has done enough.

FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE (U3) FUTURES SETTLED 17 TICKS LOWER AT 110-27+

Treasuries were steeper in choppy trade, failing to sustain a bounce higher despite the soft-leaning CPI figures; 30yr auction was lacklustre. 2s +1.9bps at 4.821%, 3s +4.8bps at 4.476%, 5s +7.2bps at 4.200%, 7s +7.8bps at 4.156%, 10s +7.7bps at 4.084%, 20s +7.3bps at 4.411%, 30s +6.7bps at 4.245%

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI +1.9bps at 2.371%, 10yr BEI +1.0bps at 2.350%, 30yr BEI +0.3bps at 2.306%.

THE DAY: Treasuries saw some gradual downside in very light trade through the APAC session, seeing T-Notes trough at 111-06+ at the London handover. Europe rejected the downward range extension bringing T-Notes back into their Wednesday ranges ahead of the US CPI data.

T-Notes were already pushing higher just before the CPI data, going on to peak at 111-29 right as the data printed, with core M/M in line with expectations and the core Y/Y soft, not to mention a sizeable rise in initial jobless claims. But for whatever reason, the bid couldn't stick and better selling kicked in, with T-Notes going on to print initial session lows of 111-05+ later in the NY morning with eyes to the 30yr auction - the front end held up relatively better. The weak 30yr auction saw Ultra Bond futures pressured into late trade, with the long-end particularly hit as the 10yr hit new lows of 110-23+.

30YR AUCTION: A lacklustre USD 32bln, 30yr new issue auction from the Treasury, with the highest yielding stop of the cycle, 4.189%, still tailing 1.4bps, which is better than last month's 2bp tail but worse than the six-auction average 0.5bps for the largest 30yr auction since February 2022. Thus, the auction failed to buck the trend of 30yr refundings tailing, where BMO highlights 13 of the last 17 having done so by an average of 1.6bps. The bid/cover ratio of 2.42x was similar to the prior 2.43x and average 2.39x. The breakdown was disappointing. Dealers (forced surplus buyers) were left with a sizeable 12.5% (prev. 10.9%; avg. 11.1%), with both Directs and Indirects taking smaller shares than July's offering.

STIRS:

• SR3U3 +1.0bps at 94.610, Z3 +0.0bps at 94.645, H4 -1.0bps at 94.890, M4 -2.5bps at 95.245, U4 -4.0bps at 95.640, Z4 -4.5bps at 95.975, H5 -5.5bps at 96.210, M5 -6.5bps at 96.355, U5 -7.0bps at 96.425, U6 -10.0bps at 96.505, U7 -10.5bps at 96.440.
• SOFR flat at 5.30% as of Aug 9th, volumes fall to USD 1.322tln from 1.340tln.
• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 1.759tln (prev. 1.797tln) across 103 counterparties (prev. 106).
• EFFR flat at 5.33% as of Aug 9th, volumes rise to USD 111bln from 110bln.
• US sold USD 76bln of 4-week bills at 5.280%, covered 2.62x; sold USD 66bln of 8-week bills at 5.280%, covered 2.96x.
• US raises 6-, 13-, and 26-week bills by USD 5bln, 2bln, and 2bln, respectively, to USD 60bln, 69bln, and 62bln; 13- and 26-week sold on Aug 14th, 6-week on Aug 15th; all to settle on Aug 17th.

FRIDAY: US PPI (Jul), US Uni of Michigan Prelim. Survey (Aug), IEA OMR, UK GDP (Jun), French/Spanish Final CPI (Jul).

CRUDE
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.03% at 4,468, NDX +0.18% at 15,128, DJIA +0.15% at 35,175, RUT -0.42% at 1,922.

SECTORS: Communication Services +0.43%, Consumer Discretionary +0.28%, Materials +0.10%, Financials +0.08%, Energy +0.08%, Technology +0.01%, Health -0.04%, Consumer Staples -0.20%, Industrials -0.28%, Real Estate -0.31%, Utilities -0.32%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +0.91% at 15,997, FTSE 100 +0.41% at 7,619, CAC 40 +1.52% at 7,434, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.56% at 4,385, IBEX 35 +1.58% at 9,502, FTSE MIB +0.94% at 28,575, SMI +0.65% at 11,153.

STOCK SPECIFICS: Disney (DIS) beat on profit but missed on revenue, Disney+ and ESPN+ subscribers; the co. also announced it is to raise prices on its ad-free streaming tier and to launch Disney+ ad-supported subscription offerings in several countries across Europe and in Canada starting November 1st. Tapestry (TPR) is to acquire Capri Holdings (CPRI) for USD 57/shr in cash or USD 8.5bln, with the move aimed to enhance competition against European giants such as LVMH (LVMUY) and Kering (PPRUY). Note, CPRI closed Wednesday at 34.61. AppLovin (APP) surpassed expectations on the top and bottom line alongside posting strong guidance. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat on EPS and revenue. Exec said Wynn Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor continue to perform well, while in Macau the post-COVID recovery accelerated. Illumina (ILMN) earnings beat but it lowered FY23 guidance as it said H2 sales will be negatively impacted by a larger temporary decline in high throughput consumables as customers transition to Novaseq X. Trade Desk (TTD) beat on the top and bottom line with the next quarter revenue outlook better-than-expected. Analysts cited management's enthusiasm about improving advertiser sentiment, with early success in OpenPath displacing ineffective SupplySidePlatforms, though high valuations may be acting as a headwind for the stock. Sonos (SONO) posted a shallower loss per share than expected and beat on revenue. Exec noted a challenging environment but remains on track to deliver FY23 guidance. Alibaba (BABA) beat on EPS and revenue, while Commerce Retail Business and Wholesale Business rose +13% and +1% Y/Y, respectively. CFO said it sees strong business momentum in Q1. Amazon (AMZN) reportedly cut dozens of house brands as it battles costs and regulators, according to WSJ.

US FX WRAP
The Dollar saw mild gains heading into APAC trade despite the US CPI Y/Y headline and core metrics coming in underneath analyst expectations, but there was still an acceleration from the prior month. Elsewhere, the jobless claims data saw a notable rise above expectations, but not above recent peaks. Meanwhile, in wake of the data, Fed's Daly still warned the fight against inflation is not over and the Fed is not done yet, but she did not commit to another hike and stressed her data-dependent stance. Nonetheless, the overall reaction was net dovish with money markets now implying just a 10% probability of a hike in September vs 15% pre-CPI. Despite some knee-jerk reaction in assets to the data, the move was quickly unwound with UST yields higher across the curve, which extended in wake of the weak 30yr bond auction taking longer-end yields to session highs, keeping the buck supported. DXY hit a high of 102.64 in the afternoon post-bond auction, from the lows of 101.76 which printed in the immediacy of the cooler-than-expected inflation report.

The Euro was also firmer on the session, but only marginally. EUR/USD managed to trade above 1.10 throughout the majority of the European session before hitting a post-CPI high of 1.1064, although the rise in bond yields post auction took EUR/USD back beneath 1.10 heading into the APAC session. Note, the ECB economic bulletin was released on Thursday, which highlighted inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long, in fitting with the latest ECB announcement. Meanwhile on EZ energy, the Dutch nat gas prices had pared some of the rally seen on Wednesday, but still remained above levels not seen since the last month.

The Yen was weaker on Thursday vs the Dollar despite seeing lows of 143.31 in the immediate aftermath of the US CPI release, but the move swiftly pared and USD/JPY went on to hit highs of 144.78 ahead of the US close given the Yen's sensitivity to US yields.

The Yuan was weaker vs the buck, albeit only marginally. It is worth noting that Country Garden Holdings, a Chinese property developer, was downgraded further into Junk at Moody's to Caa1/Caa2 from B1, implying substantial/extremely substantial risk. The downgrade follows reports earlier in the week that the co. had not paid two USD bond coupons due August 6th, worth USD 22.5mln. However, there was little reaction to the news, with many expecting any issues China is facing to be offset or at least helped with governmental support given all the recent jawboning from officials.

Antipodeans were mixed, AUD was flat vs the Dollar but NZD saw some weakness, although it managed to hold above 0.6000. AUD/USD hit a high of 0.6617 (vs low 0.6521) on the CPI-induced Dollar knee-jerk before trimming gains as the DXY regained ground. AUD/USD currently trades c. 0.6530 at pixel time, now flat on the session with the recent concerns surrounding LNG and subsequent price reaction potentially underpinning the currency. NZD/USD saw a similar story and looks to end the session towards the bottom end of its daily range of 0.6027-0.6118.

GBP was weaker vs the buck and the Euro with Cable falling from highs north of 1.28 to lows of 1.2671, and currently residing towards the bottom end of that range and back beneath the 50dma of 1.2760. Note, similar to other major FX pairs the highs in Cable were hit after the US CPI report. On UK housing, the latest UK RICS report for July saw further pressure in the housing market as mortgage rates continue to increase given the BoE's tightening cycle and expectations for further upside. RICS highlighted that both house enquiries and sales decline further and near-term market expectations remain negative.

The Loonie was slightly weaker vs the buck with the tumbling oil prices weighing on the CAD into the close. Any early gains were wiped out as the Dollar rose, stocks sold and crude prices took a hit with USD/CAD hitting a high of 1.3440 in the latter part of the session, from lows of 1.3374.

NOK was weaker vs the Euro and the Dollar on Thursday with the weakness in Brent prices weighing on the petro-currency. However, the latest inflation report came in marginally above expectations at 6.4% (exp. 6.3%), but slowed from the prior 7%. The data saw a slight hawkish repricing in the immediacy with the odds of a 50bp hike increasing to 35% from 25% pre-release.

In EMFX, the LatAm's saw notable strength vs the Dollar, particularly CLP and COP while the MXN and BRL gains were still solid in wake of the US CPI report, although the LatAm currencies managed to hold onto their gains, unlike currencies mentioned above. The Banxico decision had little impact and the bank left rates unchanged as expected while maintaining guidance, while it lifted some of its near term core inflation forecasts, and lowered its immediate Q3 23 headline inflation forecast, but inflation is still seen returning to near 3% target at the end of 2024 (more below). In Brazil, BCB Chief Neto noted service inflation has not fallen like other readings, and that the BCB is concerned by this. However, he did suggest if Brazil manages to reach its fiscal targets, rates will be lower. Neto later added that what the BCB wants most is to lower interest rates in a structural and sustainable way. The solid gains in COP and CLP were seen despite losses in each of the country's main exports, Crude and copper, with the LatAm's benefitting the most from the softer than expected US CPI report.

BANXICO REVIEW: The Central Bank of Mexico left rates unchanged as expected at 11.25% in a unanimous decision. The bank also maintained its guidance that "it considers that it will be necessary to maintain the reference rate at its current level for an extended period". Commentary on the economy saw it state activity has shown resilience and register higher-than-anticipated growth (prev. said it has shown resilience in a complex external environment), it maintained its view the labour market remains strong and that the balance of risks to growth is equilibrated. On inflation, it repeated that the balance of risks remain biased to the upside and that the inflationary outlook is still very complex, it also repeated the inflationary outlook will be complicated and uncertain throughout the entire forecast horizon, with upward risks. Banxico made some minor changes to its inflation forecasts. On the headline inflation, the Q3 23 forecast was revised down to 4.7% from 5.0%, but left unchanged throughout the rest of the forecast horizon to Q2 25. While for the core metrics, the Q3 23 forecast was left unchanged at 6.2%, but Q4 23 to Q2 24 forecasts saw revisions higher by 0.1% for each quarter, to 5.1% in Q423, 4.2% in Q124 and 3.6% in Q224. However, it still sees both headline and core inflation returning more or less to target by the end of 2024. There was nothing in the statement to indicate rate cuts are coming, but analysts are expecting rate cuts in Q4 23, and Banxico officials (namely Heath) have also expressed rate cuts could occur later this year if the economy unfolds as expected.

 

Bond sell-off accelerates after hot US PPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap

FRIDAY, AUG 11, 2023 - 04:10 PM

• SNAPSHOT: Equities flat/lower, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up.
• REAR VIEW: Hot PPI, Mixed UoM, inflation expectations ease; Iran slows pace it accumulates weapons grade uranium; Strong UK GDP.
• WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW: Highlights include US retail sales, FOMC Minutes, RBA Minutes, PBoC MLF, RBNZ, China Activity Data, UK Jobs & Inflation. To download the report, please click here.
• CENTRAL BANKS WEEKLY: Previewing RBNZ, PBoC MLF, Norges Bank, FOMC Minutes, RBA Minutes; Reviewing Banxico and RBI. To download the report, please click here.

MARKET WRAP
Stocks were choppy (SPX and RUT flat, NDX lower) to end the week with the SPX marking two consecutive W/W losses for the first time since early May. US PPI came in slightly above forecasts, which was enough to ignite a cross-asset hawkish reaction (stocks and Treasuries sold, Dollar bid) at the time, amplified by thin trading conditions, albeit stocks manage to pare off their lows in the NY afternoon. Treasuries bear-flattened, with futures closing at lows after the nudge lower in the Uni of Michigan consumer inflation expectations failed to sustain a recovery attempt. The Dollar was bid broadly, with Sterling the exception in G10 FX, outperforming after UK GDP data came in comfortably above expectations - note that USD/JPY briefly eclipsed the 145 figure, marginally, in late trade. Oil futures firmed through the US session, just managing to clinch their seventh consecutive W/W gain despite the downbeat risk tone and firmer Dollar.

US
PPI: The PPI data was hotter than expected in July for the first time since the January report, at least for the headline M/M, which rose 0.3% (exp. 0.2%) and accelerated from the prior 0.0%, which was revised down from 0.1%. The Y/Y rose 0.8%, up from the prior 0.2% (revised up from 0.1%) and above the 0.7% forecast. The Core metrics, ex Food and Energy, rose 0.3% M/M from the prior -0.1% (revised from +0.1%) and above the 0.2% consensus. Core Y/Y saw a 2.4% gain, above the 2.3% forecast and unchanged from the prior 2.4%. Meanwhile, the super core metric, ex food, energy and trade, rose 0.2% above the expected and prior of 0.1%, while the Y/Y rose 2.7%, matching the prior month's pace, albeit it was revised up from 2.7%. Analysts at Oxford Economics point out "The underlying trends show that PPI inflation is reverting to its pre-pandemic run rate, though progress is likely to be slower in H2 than H1". The desk notes that while this will comfort Fed officials, they will likely maintain a hawkish tone and keep an eye on the jump in services prices to see if it persists in the months ahead. In the near term, the Fed are truly in a data-dependent stance but views among FOMC appear quite mixed with doves Bostic and Harker alluding to no more rate hikes, while Governor Bowman implying more hikes are likely, and others, such as Daly, Powell and Williams, do not want to pre-judge the next decisions given all the data due between now and September 20th (another CPI and NFP report included). Nonetheless, markets are pricing in rates at the terminal with a c. 35% chance of another 25bp hike in November, before being held until May where the first cut is being fully priced, although March is currently seen as a 50/50.

UOM: Prelim University of Michigan saw the headline fall to 71.2 (prev. 71.6), but above the expected 71.0. Current conditions printed 77.4 rising from the prior 76.6 and topping the consensus of 76.9, but forward-looking expectations declined more-than-anticipated to 67.3 (exp. 68.1, prev. 68.3). On the inflation footing, 1yr and 5-10yr ahead encouragingly dipped to 3.3% (prev. 3.4%) and 2.9% (prev. 3.0%), respectively. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight that the longer-term metric remains in the middle of the 2.7-to-3.1% range since the start of 2021, although, well above the 2019 average of 2.4%. The Fed has made it clear that it wants to see a sustained drop in longer-term inflation expectations, so Pantheon Macroeconomics add the stickiness of the Michigan number is a little worrying. Overall, the consultancy adds, “even longer-term inflation expectations are sensitive to the current rate of headline inflation, which is falling sharply; and think it is just a matter of time before the Michigan measure of five-to-10-year inflation expectations follows.”

FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE (U3) FUTURES SETTLE 21+ TICKS LOWER AT 110-06

Treasuries bear-flattened after hotter-than-expected PPI data catalysed a sharp move in thin trade. 2s +7.4bps at 4.895%, 3s +10.2bps at 4.578%, 5s +10.4bps at 4.307%, 7s +9.9bps at 4.256%, 10s +8.2bps at 4.164%, 20s +4.5bps at 4.453%, 30s +3.7bps at 4.270%.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI +4.4bps at 2.416%, 10yr BEI +2.7bps at 2.380%, 30yr BEI +2.4bps at 2.330%.

THE DAY: Very quiet trade through APAC and Europe on Friday after the post-30yr auction Treasury sell-off late on Thursday. Note cash USTs were closed during APAC for the Japan Mountain Day Holiday. T-Notes treaded a thin range of 110-21/110-29 ahead of PPI and Uni of Michigan survey in very low activity. Ahead of the data, a 5k block 5yr buyer was followed up by 2.25k classic bond block seller. And T-Notes ran up against the top-end of their ranges going into the US data, that's despite UK Gilts continuing to move lower after the strong UK GDP figures.

The slightly firmer-than-expected US PPI figures were enough to catalyse a sharp down move in Treasuries. T-Notes fell from 110-27+ to 110-16+ in an immediate reaction before extending lower to troughs of 110-08+ an hour later. The slight fall in the Uni of Michigan's consumer inflation expectations gauges saw a modest recovery in USTs before they began leaking lower again into the NY afternoon. T-Notes ultimately troughed at 110-05+, marking a round trip to the levels we were at just before the NFP release last Friday.

STIRS:

• SR3U3 -1.5bps at 94.595, Z3 -2.5bps at 94.62, H4 -4.5bps at 94.845, M4 -6.5bps at 95.18, U4 -9bps at 95.55, Z4 -10.5bps at 95.865, H5 -12bps at 96.085, M5 -13bps at 96.22, U5 -13.5bps at 96.285, U6 -13bps at 96.375, U7 -11bps at 96.33.
• SOFR flat at 5.30% as of Aug 10th, volumes rise to USD 1.360tln from 1.322tln.
• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 1.773tln (prev. 1.760tln) across 100 counterparties (prev. 103).
• EFFR flat at 5.33% as of Aug 10th, volumes fall to USD 108bln from 111bln.

NEXT WEEK (US items bolded):

• MON: NY Fed SCE.
• TUE: Retail Sales (Jul), Import Prices (Jul), Empire State Mfg., NAHB, Fed's Kashkari (v), PBoC MLF, RBA Minutes, Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q2), Australian Wage Price Index (Q2), Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales (Jul), Japanese Industrial Output (Jul), UK Jobs Report (Jun/Jul), German ZEW Survey (Aug), Canadian CPI (Jul).
• WED: Housing Starts (Jul), Industrial Production (Jul), FOMC Minutes, RBNZ Announcement, UK Inflation (Jul), EZ GDP and Employment 2nd (Q2).
• THU: Philly Fed Mfg., Jobless Claims, Norges Bank Announcement, Australian Jobs Report (Jul), EZ Trade Balance (Jun).
• FRI: Japanese CPI (Jul), UK Retail Sales (Jul), EZ Final CPI (Jul)

CRUDE
WTI (U3) SETTLED USD 0.37 HIGHER AT 83.19/BBL; BRENT (V3) SETTLED USD 0.41 HIGHER AT 86.81/BBL

Oil futures firmed through the US session on Friday, just managing to clinch their seventh consecutive W/W gain despite Friday's downbeat risk tone and firmer Dollar. WTI and Brent futures had initially entered the NY session on the back foot, marking session troughs at USD 82.23/bbl and 85.84/bbl, respectively. But contracts saw a gradual recovery through into the NY afternoon in lack of any obvious catalysts, that's despite the continued selling in stocks and the bounce in the Dollar after the firmer-than-expected US PPI report. WTI and Brent peaked at USD 83.81/bbl and 87.35/bbl, respectively, before paring some gains into the settlement. Elsewhere Friday, the IEA maintained its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast, whilst cutting its 2024 forecast by 150k BPD. The agency noted that global oil demand hit a record high of 103mln BPD in June due to stronger-than-expected growth in OECD countries, solid summer air travel, and high Chinese demand. Meanwhile, Reuters sources reported that Saudi Aramco has informed North Asia customers they will receive the full volume of oil requested for September despite the sustained production cuts, with the report noting solid demand despite the higher OSPs; article notes an estimated 50-52mln bbls of Saudi oil to be taken by Chinese buyers in September, well north of August's 38mln bbls. Finally, total US and gas rigs fell for the fifth week in a row (down 5 at 654), with oil rigs flat W/W but nat gas rigs down 5 at 123, according to Baker Hughes.

EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.11% at 4,464, NDX -0.67% at 15,028, DJIA +0.3% at 35,281, RUT +0.13% at 1,925.

SECTORS: Technology -0.88%, Communication Svcs -0.48%, Consumer Disc -0.28%, Materials -0.27%, Industrials +0.10%, Consumer Staples +0.19%, Real Estate +0.19%, Financials +0.21%, Utilities +0.51%, Health +0.57%, Energy +1.56%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX -1.03% at 15,832, FTSE 100 -1.24% at 7,524, CAC 40 -1.26% at 7,340, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.45% at 4,321, IBEX 35 -0.71% at 9,434, FTSE MIB -1.05% at 28,275, SMI -0.61% at 11,082.

STOCK SPECIFICS: Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN) missed on revenue with Q3 and FY23 guidance light amid downbeat macro commentary. Exec said the global demand environment in the distributed generation market weakened significantly in late Q2 and expects challenging market conditions to persist at least through Q3. News Corp. (NWSA) beat on profit and touted AI boost to future sales, but revenue did miss expectations. A US advisory panel will investigate risks in cloud computing, including Microsoft (MSFT) role in a recent breach of government officials' email accounts by suspected Chinese hackers. The group will explore risks in cloud infrastructure, prompted by the Microsoft breach. MercadoLibre (MELI) appointed Martin de los Santos as its new CFO after current CFO announced he will leave his position to pursue new opportunities outside the company. Cano Health (CANO) had disappointing results alongside news it is exiting operations in several markets and is pursuing a sales process. Believes that its liquidity is not sufficient to cover the company's operating, investing and financing uses for the next 12 months. Flowers Foods (FLO) surpassed expectations on the top and bottom line and lifted FY23 guidance. Archer Aviation (ACHR), Boeing (BA), and Wisk Aero announced that they have reached a settlement to resolve the federal and state court litigation between the parties on undisclosed terms. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) announced it is investigating a cybersecurity incident; adding a prolonged disruption could impact futures operations, but so far there has been limited impact on production and they are assessing the impact and proactive measures are being taken to address the situation. Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML) announced it is to reach full annualised production capacity of 270k T of triple zero green lithium in Q3; on track to produce 130k T of chemical grade triple zero lithium by Dec'23; it also named Caio Araujo as CFO. Starbucks (SBUX) saw a US judge dismiss lawsuit against its board by shareholder activist that is opposed to Co.'s diversity, equity, and inclusion policy. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) announced a decision to close online sports betting and iGaming platform, WynnBet, in certain jurisdictions; operations in Nevada and Massachusetts will continue unaffected and ops. in New York and Michigan remain under review.

WEEKLY FX WRAP
DXY swayed on inflation while Antipodeans and Yuan lost out amid downbeat Chinese data

DXY - Overall a choppy but positive week for the broader Dollar and index, largely propped up by risk aversion but with gains hampered by the highlight of the week – the softer-than-expected US CPI. Monday, the index moved in lockstep with yields before detaching from that dynamic come Tuesday – underpinned by risk aversion that day following the Chinese trade data and Moody’s downgrading a slew of smaller banks. Solid 3yr and 10yr Treasury auctions kept a lid on gains ahead of US CPI on Thursday. Friday the index experienced trade on either side of 102.50 in holiday conditions. In terms of the CPI release, headline M/M rose by 0.2%, in line with expectations and the prior pace of 0.2%, while the Y/Y was cooler than expected at 3.2% (exp. 3.3%), but it did accelerate from the prior 3.0% pace. A similar story was seen in the core metrics, the M/M rose 0.2%, in line with the expected and prior 0.2%, and the Y/Y rose by 4.7% vs the Refinitiv estimate of 4.8% but was cooler than the prior 4.8%. Fed pricing tilted incrementally dovish post-release, with the DXY printing its weekly low after the release, before rebounding as the dust settled. Traders must be aware of another set of US jobs and inflation reports due before the decision-making September meeting (with the Jackson Hole Symposium held from August 24 to August 26). Sticking with inflation, the index clawed back some earlier Friday losses after PPI printed slightly hotter-than-expected across the board, although Fed pricing saw little change From a technical perspective, the post-CPI weekly low was printed at 101.78, with the high set on the risk-off Tuesday at 102.80 – then matched again on Friday post-PPI. Downside levels, thereafter, include the 4th August low (101.74), and 31st July low (101.53), then 101.50. Under that, the 28th July low (101.35), then the 27th July low at 100.55. Upside levels for the index include the highs from the 2nd and 8th of August (102.78-79), the 3rd August peak (102.84), the 7th July high (103.19), and the 6th July high (103.57).

Yuan - The Yuan was in focus this week amid the top-tier data headlined by the Chinese inflation (or rather deflation) metrics – which further affirmed, following the disappointing trade data on Tuesday, weak domestic demand with the expected post-COVID rebound in consumer spending failing to materialise. That being said, Y/Y CPI printed slightly above expectations while core CPI Y/Y rose +0.8% (vs prev. 0.4%). Desks expect China to cut its rates and RRR whilst the call for more fiscal stimulus grows. CNH saw strength post-inflation and extended on gains amid reports that China's major state-owned banks have been seen selling dollars to buy the Yuan within the onshore spot FX market. Next week, Chinese activity data in the form of Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be eyed for more hints on the health of demand. Nonetheless, USD/CNH is set to end the European day at the top of a 7.1808-2611 weekly band. Nearby upside levels include the 6th July high (7.2743) and the 30th June peak (7.2856).

AUD, NZD, CAD - Overall, a tumultuous week for the non-US Dollars, mostly influenced by sentiment and Chinese data. Tuesday marked the deepest losses in the wake of the aforementioned Chinese trade data, Wednesday saw a partial recovery, driven by the waning Dollar and a slight uptick in sentiment at the time. Thursday's session had the AUD and NZD capitalising on the Dollar's post-CPI losses, extending their rebound. AUD/USD and NZD/USD set the weekly highs of 0.6617 and 0.6118 on Thursday as the Dollar knee-jerked lower post-CPI, with the former seeing a 0.6497 weekly low on Tuesday after the Chinese data. AUD/USD sees its YTD low at 0.6456. NZD/USD heading into the European close around weekly lows near 0.6000 - NZD faces potential challenges due to reports of New Zealand's intelligence agency detecting activities linked to China's services. This could strain relations between New Zealand and the nearby major economy. NZD/USD sees the next low under 0.6000 at 0.5990 (1st Jun low) and the YTD low at 0.5985 (set on 31st May). USD/CAD is flat around its 200 DMA (1.3448) in a 1.3427-56 intraday parameter at the time of writing. CAD failed to benefit from the weekly gains in crude prices amid the broader market sentiment throughout the week – possibly amid some technical influence - with USD/CAD rising above its 100 DMA (1.3386 on Friday) and 200 DMA (1.3448 on Friday) during the week. The pair looks to end the European session towards the top of its 1.3356-3502 weekly range but under its 50 WMA (1.3460).

JPY, CHF - A softer week for the traditional havens but on two separate magnitudes – with the JPY the marked laggard. Monday was a choppy day for the currencies but on Tuesday their resilience was showcased in the face of pronounced Dollar strength but amid a risk-off mood. Thursday posed hurdles for the Yen, especially when against the Euro, as the cross dug into levels last seen in 2008, whilst gains in bond yields only proved as headwinds for the Japanese currency. USD/JPY rose from a 141.51 weekly low to a high at 144.90, just shy of the 3rd July peak (144.91) and then the 30th June high (145.07). Above that, it looks like clean air until the 10th November 2022 high at 146.59. EUR/JPY is set to end the week at levels last seen at the start of September 2008, with the cross rising from a 155.80 weekly low to a 159.22 peak, with the next level to the upside the 1st September 2008 high (159.63). USD/CHF saw a more contained week between 0.8698-8783 ranges, and EUR/CHF is set to end the week towards the middle of a 0.9581-0.9649 range.

EUR, GBP - Both saw a subdued week, mostly as a function of the Dollar. EUR on Tuesday had to tackle risk aversion in the form of downbeat Chinese trade alongside surprise reports of an Italian windfall tax on banks’ profits – which the Meloni government later watered down after markets were spooked. Furthermore, the single currency has to ponder the inflationary implications of the rise in European gas prices amid supply fears emanating from potential Australian LNG strikes, which underpinned the currency at one point. Across the channel, there wasn’t much out for the UK during the week aside from UK GDP on Friday which surpassed expectations and boosted Sterling upon release. Sterling traders will be eyeing next week’s UK jobs and inflation metrics to influence market pricing. EUR/USD looks to end the European week towards the bottom end of a 1.0929-1.1065 weekly band after finding support at its 50 DMA (at 1.0935 on Friday) towards the latter end of the week. GBP/USD is set to end the week between a 1.2666-2819 weekly parameter but within last week’s 1.2620-2873 range. EUR/GBP is set to end the week with modest gains, whilst on Friday the cross found resistance at its 100 DMA (0.8669) which also resides near its 200 WMA (0.8671).

 

Nasdaq leads gains on NVDA rally while bonds continue to bear-flatten - Newsquawk US Market Wrap

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 - 04:15 PM

• SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up.
• REAR VIEW: NY Fed Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations sees 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr ahead all decline; Continued concerns around China's economic recovery; X rejects CLF buyout bid; TSLA cuts prices in China for some Model Y versions; NVDA named top pick at Morgan Stanley.
• COMING UP: Data: Japanese GDP, Canadian Industrial Output, Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment, UK Unemployment, Swedish CPI, German & EZ ZEW, US Import & Export Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Canadian CPI Events: RBA Minutes Speakers: Fed’s Kashkari Supply: Japan, UK & Germany Earnings: Pandora, Legal & General & Home Depot.
• WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW: Highlights include US retail sales, FOMC Minutes, RBA Minutes, PBoC MLF, RBNZ, China Activity Data, UK Jobs & Inflation. To download the report, please click here.
• CENTRAL BANKS WEEKLY: Previewing RBNZ, PBoC MLF, Norges Bank, FOMC Minutes, RBA Minutes; Reviewing Banxico and RBI. To download the report, please click here.

MARKET WRAP
Risk conditions were choppy in a day of quiet newsflow but stocks managed to settle predominantly in the green with an upside led by the Nasdaq thanks to the upside in Nvidia (NVDA) after MS named the stock a top pick ahead of earnings while the super cap names (AAPL, MSFT and AMZN) also saw a decent session. The moves saw the Tech and Communication sectors outperform, while defensive sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples and Real Estate were the laggards. SPX and NDX managed to close in the green while the DJIA was flat and RUT was red, the downside in RUT was led by losses in regional banks while more woes at Nikola may have also helped with the underperformance. In material names, US Steel (X) soared after it was announced the co. had rejected an offer to be bought by Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) while Esmark later revealed it also offered to buy the steel producer for USD 35/shr. In FX, the Dollar firmed on Monday with DXY reclaimed 103 as yields continued to advance which in turn saw USD/JPY rise above 145.50, levels not seen since November 2022 with participants cognizant of any potential Japanese intervention if the Yen weakness continues. The Treasury curve saw more bear flattening in the wake of Friday's PPI data in a quiet session but risks overnight include the China activity data and the RBA Minutes ahead of Tuesday's US retail sales. Crude prices fell victim to the stronger buck with both WTI and Brent settling lower, albeit after seven weeks of consecutive gains.

US
NY SCE: The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations saw median 1yr ahead inflation expectations fall to 3.5% from 4.1%, the lowest since April 2021, while the 3yr and 5yr ahead both dipped to 2.9% from 3.0%. The report notes that year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Moreover, labor market expectations strengthened, and households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved. The report later added that the share of respondents expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.

FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE (U3) FUTURES SETTLED 6 TICKS LOWER AT 110-00

Treasury bear-flattener continues Monday post-PPI in quiet summer trade ahead of a sparse US data calendar. At settlement, 2s +7.4bps at 4.969%, 3s +6.8bps at 4.649%, 5s +5.2bps at 4.360%, 7s +3.4bps at 4.293%, 10s +1.9bps at 4.187%, 20s +0.8bps at 4.464%, 30s +1.3bps at 4.285%.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI -0.8bps at 2.406%, 10yr BEI -1.2bps at 2.368%, 30yr BEI -0.8bps at 2.324%.

THE DAY: Treasuries opened on the backfoot for the globex open, extending the downside from last Friday's hot-sided PPI figures. T-Notes printed initial lows at the open of 109-30+, swiftly paring back above the 110 figure but failing to recover much further, with JGBs opening lower after the holiday on Friday.

Contracts recovered a bit further into the London handover, with risk sentiment in APAC hampered after China Country Garden faced more debt payment delays. Blocks of an 8.4k 5yr seller and a 4.6k/4k 2yr/5yr steepener capped a more meaningful recovery, albeit T-Notes ultimately peaked at 110-10 at the NY handover.

Better selling resumed as US trade got underway in the absence of any particular catalysts, with the front end leading again. It's worth flagging the thinner trading conditions, which probably added to the size of the moves, with T-Notes ultimately troughing at 109-24+ and the cash 10yr yield peaking at 4.215%, the highest since November last year. After absorbing a 12.5k 5yr block seller, contracts pared losses later in the NY morning. The decline in the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectations helped the recovery too. The front end lagged, flattening the curve further.

It's a largely quiet week from a US data perspective, with Tuesday's retail sales and a few regional Fed surveys being the highlights, which serve to embolden the "summer feel" of markets this week.

STIRS:

• SR3U3 -0.8bps at 94.588, Z3 -3.0bps at 94.585, H4 -6.0bps at 94.780, M4 -9.0bps at 95.085, U4 -9.5bps at 95.450, Z4 -9.0bps at 95.765, H5 -8.5bps at 95.990, M5 -7.5bps at 96.140, U5 -6.5bps at 96.215, U6 -3.0bps at 96.345, U7 +0.5bps at 96.325.
• SOFR flat at 5.30% as of Aug 11th, volumes fall to USD 1.347tln from 1.360tln.
• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 1.799tln (prev. 1.773tln) across 103 counterparties (prev. 100).
• EFFR flat at 5.33% as of Aug 11th, volumes fall to USD 105bln from 108bln.
• US sold USD 76bln of 3-month bills at 5.295%, covered 3.12x; sold USD 68bln of 6-month bills at 5.290%, covered 2.78x.

THIS WEEK (US items bolded):

• TUE: Retail Sales (Jul), Import Prices (Jul), Empire State Mfg., NAHB, Fed's Kashkari (v), PBoC MLF, RBA Minutes, Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q2), Australian Wage Price Index (Q2), Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales (Jul), Japanese Industrial Output (Jul), UK Jobs Report (Jun/Jul), German ZEW Survey (Aug), Canadian CPI (Jul).
• WED: Housing Starts (Jul), Industrial Production (Jul), FOMC Minutes, RBNZ Announcement, UK Inflation (Jul), EZ GDP and Employment 2nd (Q2).
• THU: Philly Fed Mfg., Jobless Claims, Norges Bank Announcement, Australian Jobs Report (Jul), EZ Trade Balance (Jun).
• FRI: Japanese CPI (Jul), UK Retail Sales (Jul), EZ Final CPI (Jul).

CRUDE
WTI (U3) SETTLED USD 0.68 LOWER AT 82.51/BBL; BRENT (V3) SETTLED USD 0.60 LOWER AT 86.21/BBL

The crude complex started the week on a weaker footing, after seven consecutive weeks of gains, amid the firmer Buck and continued concerns around China. On the latter, there is Chinese activity data overnight which will be closely eyed following a string of downbeat economic data, raising concerns surrounding the recovery of the nation’s post-COVID demand. Newsflow and headline activity has been few and far between on a typical summer trading day, but WTI and Brent saw gradual upside ahead of settlement, although just before it settled a strong move lower saw most of that earlier move pared.

On the day, Shell (SHEL LN) said export operations resumed at Nigeria's Forcados terminal on August 13th following reports on July 13th of a leak at the export terminal that saw loadings suspended. Elsewhere, Russia's July seaborne oil product exports are up 3.8% M/M, while Kazakhstan Energy Ministry noted it may adjust oil production forecast for 2023 due to power outages. Meanwhile, the US EIA announced it sees the September shale production -19k BPD at 9.415mln BPD, vs the -15k BPD in August. Looking ahead, the aforementioned Chinese data will be watched as well as US Retail Sales (Tues) and FOMC Minutes (Wed) in addition to US retailer earnings.

EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.57% at 4,489, NDX +1.18% at 15,205, DJIA +0.07% at 35,307, RUT -0.24% at 1,920.

SECTORS: Technology +1.85%, Communication Services +1.04%, Consumer Discretionary +0.39%, Health +0.33%, Materials +0.19%, Industrials +0.03%, Financials -0.18%, Energy -0.33%, Consumer Staples -0.52%, Real Estate -0.54%, Utilities -0.83%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +0.46% at 15,904, FTSE 100 -0.23% at 7,507, CAC 40 +0.12% at 7,349, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.16% at 4,328, IBEX 35 -0.05% at 9,430, FTSE MIB +0.57% at 28,435, SMI +0.26% at 11,110.

STOCK SPECIFICS: US Steel (X) rejected a buyout offer from Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) which implied a total consideration value of USD 35/shr or 7.3bln. Following this, US Steel announced it is reviewing strategic alternatives. Towards the end of the session, Esmark announced an all cash public offer for US Steel Shares (X); deal is for an offering for USD 35/shr, which helped support X even further. Tesla (TSLA) cut the prices of its Model Y Performance and Model Y Long Range vehicles in China. Chinese EV names such as XPeng (XPEV) and Nio (NIO) saw weakness as a result. Boeing (BA) is viewed to be the front-runner in discussions to sell around 25 widebody 787 jets to India's Indigo, according to Reuters sources. AMC Entertainment (AMC) won court approval of a stock conversion plan with fears it will allow co. to issue more shares to raise capital, a move that will dilute the worth of each common share. Nikola (NKLA) is recalling most of its battery-powered commercial trucks after an outside investigation indicated a defective battery part likely caused a fire in one of the trucks, according to WSJ. Apple (AAPL) supplier Foxconn cut its FY23 revenue guide to 'slightly decline' y/y (prev. "flat") due to global economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Okta (OKTA) was upgraded at Goldman Sachs citing a favourable risk reward and expectations for an inflection in subscription revenues. Keysight Technologies (KEYS) was downgraded at BofA noting the likelihood of worsening order trends. Intuit’s (INTU) Alex Chriss named new PayPal (PYPL) CEO effective from September 27th, according to CNBC. Nvidia (NVDA) was named a ‘top pick’ at Morgan Stanley heading into earnings; believes the recent selloff is a good entry point, as despite supply constraints, MS still expects a meaningful beat and raise quarter. Wells Fargo lowered its target price on Hawaiian Electric (HE) and maintained an underweight rating, citing wildfires in Maui as a looming risk.

US FX WRAP
The Dollar saw a mild bid on Monday in quiet summer trade with DXY rising above 103.460 in what was a choppy day of risk conditions. The Dollar rose above the July 7th high at 103.19 and the 200dma at 103.29 to see a daily high of 103.46, the highest since June 30th. The highlight of the day was the NY Fed survey of consumer expectations, which saw inflation expectations move lower, with the 1-year ahead view falling to 3.5% from 4.1%, the lowest since April 2021, while the 3yr and 5yr both fell to 2.9% from 3.0% but sparked little dollar reaction. Attention turns to US retail sales data on Tuesday.

The Euro saw weakness, as initially it held just beneath the 55dma at 1.0942 before eventually breaking above that to hit a high of 1.0959 in the European morning but it had failed to touch the 10dma resistance at 1.0965. EUR/USD then fell back beneath the 55dma and extended to lows in the afternoon of 1.0875 as the Dollar hit its peaks albeit driven by little news; once the dust settled the pair had bounced from the trough reclaiming the 1.09 handle.

The Yen was the underperformer vs the Buck with USD/JPY hitting a high of 145.58, levels not seen since November 2022 with participants cognizant of any Yen intervention from Japanese officials. Attention turns to Japanese GDP data overnight while US retail sales will also be eyed on Tuesday and any implications it has on the UST yield curve which could have a knock on effect to the Yen.

The Yuan was weaker on the session with concerns around China property developer Country Garden after sources in China Securities Journal dismissed reports it was seeking a bond payment extension. Elsewhere, there were more signs of distress at Evergrande seen after it announced its NEV group will face the risk of discontinuing its business without access to a new round of significant funding. Overnight, the focus will be on China's activity data in the form of industrial production/output and retail sales.

Antipodes saw mild weakness vs the Dollar in choppy risk conditions, with AUD attempting to rise above 0.6500 on two occasions but failing to hold above the level with participants eyeing the upcoming RBA minutes release. Similar price action was seen in NZD/USD which tested 0.6000 to the upside twice but failed to breach the psychological level finding an intra-day high at 0.5992.

GBP also saw mild weakness vs the Dollar with eyes turning to the UK jobs and earnings data and its implications for UK Monetary policy. Currently, market prices in a 87% probability of a 25bp hike in November, with rates seen peaking at c. 5.82% in March 2024, implying a bank rate of 5.75% up from the current 5.25%, with potential for another move up to a 6.00% peak.

CAD was also weaker vs the Buck with USD/CAD heading into the APAC session towards the upper end of its intraday 1.3434-80 range with weaker oil prices weighing on the Loonie ahead of Canadian CPI on Tuesday.

EMFX was mixed. RUB saw choppy price action after the CBR announced it is to hold an unscheduled rate decision on August 15th at 08:30 BST / 03:30 EDT. The meeting comes 1 month ahead of the meeting initially planned for the 15th September but follows commentary from the CBR that it still sees no threat to financial stability in the current Rouble dynamics, and that a key rate increase was possible at next meetings. Elsewhere, in LatAm, the Argentinian Peso in the parallel informal market saw a record low of 695 but then pared to 685. The initial weakness was seen after the far-right candidate, who wants to abolish the central bank and dollarize the economy, unexpectedly won a primary election over the weekend. The move then prompted the Argentine central bank to hike rates to 118% from 97% previously, according to a source, while traders cited by Reuters noted the central bank bought USD 220mln following the accelerated devaluation. Elsewhere, LatAm FX was mixed, the BRL and COP saw notable weakness vs the Dollar while the MXN was also softer, but the CLP saw gains vs the Dollar. The CLP gains followed the release of the Chile Central Bank meeting minutes which noted they discussed cutting rates by 100bps and 75bps (ultimately settled for a 100bp cut), while it also revealed that future rate cuts might be of a smaller magnitude than the recent 100bp cut.

 

GERMAN ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT (AUG) ACTUAL: -12.3 VS -14.7 PREVIOUS; EST -14.9

EUROZONE ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT (AUG) ACTUAL: -5.5 VS -12.2 PREVIOUS

$NVDA: WELLS FARGO RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $500 FROM $450

$NVDA: UBS RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $540 FROM $475

Fitch Warns of Potential Downgrades to US Banks Including JPMorgan Chase Should Banking Industry Deteriorate Further, CNBC Says
TRADERS RAISE ECB PEAK RATE BETS TO 4%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY 24

BARCLAYS CUTS CHINA’S 2023 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 4.5%

X, the company formerly known as Twitter, will no longer allow advertisers to promote their accounts within the platform's timeline to attract new followers, according to an email to advertising clients obtained by Axios.

STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX EXTENDS EARLIER LOSSES TO 1%

$FSR $TSLA - Fisker Customers Will Gain Access to Tesla Superchargers as It Adopts North American Charging Standard

RUSSIA'S DEFENCE MINISTER CLAIMS UKRAINE'S MILITARY RESOURCES ARE 'ALMOST EXHAUSTED' AND THAT HIS COUNTRY HAS ENDED WESTERN MILITARY DOMINANCE

BTC price won't hit $100K before 2024 halving: Bitcoin investment exec

$NVDA: BAIRD RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $570 FROM $457

US 30-YEAR TIPS YIELD EXCEEDS 2%, HIGHEST SINCE 2011

SHARES OF BIG WALL STREET LENDERS FALL PREMARKET AS REPORT SAYS FITCH MAY BE FORCED TO DOWNGRADE MULTIPLE BANKS, INCLUDING JPMORGAN

JPMORGAN SHARES DOWN 1.2%

BANK OF AMERICA DOWN 1.1%

GOLDMAN SACHS DOWN 0.8% PREMARKET

CITIGROUP DOWN 1.0%

WELLS FARGO DOWN 1.0% PREMARKET

RUSSIAN COURT FREEZES LOCAL ASSETS OF CREDIT SUISSE, UBS - TASS

Fund Managers Are Least Bearish in 18 Months, BofA Survey Says

Bank of America's monthly global fund manager survey paints the least bearish picture since February 2022, it says. The survey finds that cash holdings drop to a 21-month low of 4.8% from 5.3% and that three out of four fund managers expect either a 'soft landing' or 'no landing', BofA says

Television Accounted for Less Than Half of U.S. Viewing Time in July, a First, Nielsen Says -- WSJ

Combined, Cable and Broadcast TV Captured 49.6% of U.S. Viewing Time in July, Nielsen Says -- WSJ

The Typical Teacher Can Afford Just 12% of Homes for Sale Near Their School, Down From 30% in 2019: Redfin

BRENT FUTURES FALL $1 TO $85.21

U.S. July Retail Sales Due 8:30 a.m. ET; Seen +0.4%

U.S. July Retail Ex-Autos Sales Due 8:30 a.m. ET; Seen +0.4%

SPOT GOLD FALLS BELOW $1,900/OZ, LAST DOWN 0.3%

EUROPE GAS PRICES JUMP 15% AS AUSTRALIA STRIKE TALKS CONTINUE

U.S RETAIL SALES (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: 0.7% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.4%
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES AFTER ECONOMIC DATA

U.S EXPORT PRICE INDEX (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: 0.7% VS 0.9% PREVIOUS; EST 0.2%

U.S IMPORT PRICE INDEX (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: 0.4% VS -0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.2%
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

DOLLAR RISES AFTER U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES BEATS ESTIMATES

US TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 5%, APPROACHING 2023 HIGH

US 10-YEAR, 30-YEAR YIELDS REACH HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE OCTOBER

CANADIAN MONEY MARKETS SEE 35% CHANCE OF BOC RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER, UP FROM 22% BEFORE THE INFLATION DATA

CHINA SAYS TAIWAN'S LAI CHING-TE BRINGS RISKS OF WAR

JEFFERIES LIFTS S&P 500 YEAR-END TARGET TO 4500 FROM 4050

$AMZN - Amazon Pharmacy launches automatic coupons for $35 insulin

U.S. TREASURIES PARE DECLINES; 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 4.95%

ENERGY SECTOR CUT TO NEUTRAL: WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE

WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE RAISES U.S. GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.2% FROM 1.1%

WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE RAISES FED TERMINAL RATE FORECAST RANGE TO 5.5%-5.75% FROM 5.25% -.5% EARLIER

$NVDA - NVIDIA SHARES UP 1.38% AFTER TWO BROKERAGES RAISE PT ON STOCK

$GM - GENERAL MOTORS SHARES DOWN 1.53% AS BERKSHIRE CUTS STAKE IN CO

SHARES OF BIG WALL STREET LENDERS FALL AS REPORT SAYS FITCH MAY BE FORCED TO DOWNGRADE MULTIPLE BANKS, INCLUDING JPMORGAN

HUNTER BIDEN’S TOP LAWYER ASKS TO WITHDRAW FROM CASE: CNN

US NAHB Aug Housing Index 50 Vs 56 In Jul

US Jun Business Inventories Unchanged; Expected 0.0%
https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

$HE - HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES CUT TO JUNK BY S&P

CHINA BANKS SOLD 1.31T YUAN OF TOTAL FOREX IN JULY

OIL PRICES EXTEND LOSSES, US CRUDE FALLS $2 TO SESSION LOW OF $80.48/BBL

CHINA DEFENCE MINISTRY: CHINA, INDIA HAD POSITIVE, CONSTRUCTIVE AND IN-DEPTH DISCUSSION ON RESOLUTION OF THE REMAINING ISSUES ALONG THE LAC IN THE WESTERN SECTOR

CHINA DEFENCE MINISTRY: CHINA, INDIA AGREED TO MAINTAIN PEACE AND TRANQUILLITY ON THE GROUND IN THE BORDER AREAS
U.S. STOCKS EXTEND FALL, NASDAQ DOWN 1.00 PCT

U.S. NATURAL GAS FUTURES FALL 5%

CBOT CORN FALLS TO LOWEST SINCE JAN 4 2021 ON IMPROVING CROP CONDITIONS - TRADE

CHINA SAYS INBOUND FOREIGN INVESTMENT NET INFLOWS REBOUND

S&P 500 TOUCHES LOWEST INTRADAY SINCE JULY 11, DOWN 1%

MIZUHO CUTS 2023 CHINA GDP FORECAST TO 5% FROM 5.5% EARLIER

$WMT $XOM - Walmart Joining Forces With Exxon Mobil to Double Discount Walmart+ Members Get at Exxon and Mobil Stations Nationwide

Walmart+ Members to Receive 20 Cents Off Every Gallon of Gas at Exxon and Mobil Stations

 

KASHKARI: WE'VE BEEN SURPRISED BY ECONOMY'S RESILIENCE

KASHKARI: INFLATION IS STILL TOO HIGH

KASHKARI: I FEEL GOOD ABOUT PROGRESS ON INFLATION

KASHKARI: THE QUESTION IS, HAVE WE DONE ENOUGH, OR DO WE NEED TO DO MORE

RUSSIA DISCUSSES RETURN TO CAPITAL CONTROLS TO STEM RUBLE SLUMP

KASHKARI: ON AVERAGE BANKING SYSTEM IS STABLE

KASHKARI: WE ARE INTENSELY SCRUTINIZING REGIONAL BANKS

KASHKARI: THE RISK IS IF FED HAS TO RAISE RATES FURTHER, BANKS COULD FACE MORE LOSSES

KASHKARI: NOT YET COMFORTABLE TO SAY IT'S ALL CLEAR

BRITAIN'S FTSE 100 DOWN 1.6%

GERMANY'S DAX DOWN 0.9%

FRANCE'S CAC 40 DOWN 1.1%

SPAIN'S IBEX DOWN 0.9%

FED'S KASHKARI: HOUSING MARKET RESPONSE TO RATE HIKES HAS BEEN SURPRISING, WOULD HAVE THOUGHT BRAKES WOULD BE SLAMMED

FED'S KASHKARI: SEEMS LIKE HOUSING HAS BOTTOMED, AND IS NOW RECOVERING

WHITE HOUSE: HAVING ACTIVE CONVERSATIONS ABOUT BIDEN VISITING HAWAII

FED'S KASHKARI: I WANT TO SEE CONVINCING EVIDENCE THAT INFLATION IS GOING BACK DOWN TO 2%

KASHKARI: WE NEED TO AVOID A 1970S-TYPE SCENARIO WHERE FED STOPPED RAISING RATES TOO SOON

KASHKARI: NOT READY TO SAY WE’RE DONE RAISING RATES

KASHKARI: CUTTING RATES WOULD BE A LONG LONG TIME AWAY

KASHKARI: SOMETIME NEXT YEAR FED MAY NEED TO LOWER NOMINAL RATES

KASHKARI: I DONT SEE EVIDENCE THAT A RECESSION IS AROUND THE CORNER

 

KASHKARI SAYS NOT SEEING EVIDENCE CHINA ISSUES SPILLING OVER TO U.S

WHITE HOUSE: DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO HAVE A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN NEXT MONTH

$GOOGL - GOOGLE UNVEILED SEARCH GENERATIVE EXPERIENCE EARLIER IN 2023

$GOOGL - GOOGLE TO EXPAND USE OF AI TOOL FOR SEARCH ACROSS THE WEB

RUSSIA TESTS DIGITAL RUBLE IN BID TO BYPASS SANCTIONS

ARGENTINA'S PARALLEL PESO WEAKENS 4.2% TO RECORD LOW OF 715/USD

EUROPEAN COMPANIES STORED 600MCM OF NATGAS IN UKRAINE: MINISTER

98 COUNTERPARTIES TAKE $1.744T AT FED REVERSE REPO OP

 

$TSLA - TESLA FALLS ABOUT 1.5% PREMARKET; TESLA CUTS CHINA PRICES FOR SECOND TIME IN THREE DAYS

$TSLA - Tesla has reduced the prices for its premium Model S and Model X vehicles in China, its second price cut in the country this week, multiple media outlets reported Wednesday, citing the company.

The electric vehicle manufacturer is now selling Model S at 754,900 yuan ($103,478), a 6.7% decrease from 808,900 yuan earlier, while the Model X starts at 836,900 yuan, down 6.9% from 898,900 yuan earlier, Reuters reported, citing a company post on social media platform Weibo.

$COIN - Coinbase Gets NFA Approval to Offer Crypto Futures -- WSJ

$COIN - COINBASE-CAN NOW OFFER FUTURES CONTRACTS IN BTC AND ETH TO ELIGIBLE CUSTOMERS IN THE US

$COIN +3.20% premkt

Retail investors complain to Chinese regulator about Zhongzhi

Retail investors with exposure to Chinese conglomerate Zhongzhi sought to lodge formal complaints with authorities in Beijing on Wednesday in a sign of growing alarm over a liquidity crisis across the group’s many businesses.

TARGET Q2 23 EARNINGS:

• ADJ EPS: $1.80 (EXP $1.40)
• REVENUE: $24.77B (EXP $24.91B)
• SEES FY ADJ EPS $7.00 TO $8.00, SAW $7.75 TO $8.75
• SEES Q3 ADJ EPS $1.20 TO $1.60 (EXP $1.83)
• TARGET CUTS GUIDANCE AFTER Q2 SALES SHORTFALL
$TGT +8% premkt

CNINA VOWS TO MEET ANNUAL ECONOMIC TARGETS

CHINA VOWS TO BOOST INVESTMENT, CONSUMPTION

CHINA STATE COUNCIL VOWS TO PREVENT, CURB 'MAJOR RISKS'

TARGET EXTENDS PREMARKET RALLY TO 12% AFTER 2Q RESULTS

SWISS CHANCELLOR WALTER THURNHERR TO RESIGN - TAGESANZEIGER

U.S MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS (WOW) ACTUAL: -0.8% VS -3.1% PREVIOUS

U.S MBA 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE ACTUAL: 7.16% VS 7.09%

$NVDA: RAYMOND JAMES RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $550 FROM $450

U.S. S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES DOWN 0.1%, NASDAQ FUTURES DOWN 0.2%

Vladimir Putin to hold meeting on Russian currency controls after rouble slide

President Vladimir Putin is to discuss ramping up currency controls with Russian policymakers on Wednesday after an extraordinary 3.5 percentage point rate rise failed to halt the rouble’s slide, said two people familiar with the matter.

$GM - GM INVESTS IN AI AND BATTERY MATERIALS INNOVATOR MITRA CHEM

$AAPL - Apple's iPhone 15 production is starting at a Foxconn plant in India, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

The facility is preparing to deliver the devices weeks after they begin shipping from plants in China, as the technology giant plans to increase the volume of new phones coming from India, the report said.

CANADA HOUSING STARTS (JUL) ACTUAL: 255K VS 281.4K PREVIOUS; EST 240.0K

U.S. July Housing Starts Due 8:30 a.m. ET; Seen +1.1%

US SENATE MAJORITY LEADER SCHUMER: MET WITH HOUSE SPEAKER MCCARTHY A FEW WEEKS BACK, AGREED TO DO A RESOLUTION TO FUND GOVERNMENT FOR A FEW MONTHS -MSNBC INTERVIEW

U.S TREASURIES PARE GAINS; 10- AND 30-YEAR YIELDS REACH DAY'S HIGHS

US Jul Housing Starts +3.9% To 1.452M; Consensus +1.1%

Building Permits +0.1% To 1.442M Rate In Jul

U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES HOLD LOSSES AFTER JULY HOUSING STARTS DATA

US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS HOLD NEAR SESSION HIGHS AFTER HOUSING STARTS DATA, LAST AT 4.2197%

RUSSIA DEFENCE MINISTRY SIGNS ARMS CONTRACTS WORTH MORE THAN 400 BLN ROUBLES - TASS

$TGT - TARGET CEO SAYS OUR TEAM CONTINUES TO FACE AN 'UNACCEPTABLE' AMOUNT OF RETAIL THEFT AND ORGANIZED RETAIL CRIME

TARGET EXEC SAYS THE REACTION TO PRIDE ASSORTMENT IS A SIGNAL FOR US TO PAUSE, ADAPT AND LEARN

$V - VISA SHARES FALL 1% PREMARKET ON DOJ PROBE

BIDEN WILL TRAVEL TO HAWAII ON AUG. 21 -WHITE HOUSE

US Jul Industrial Production +1.0%; Consensus +0.3%

US Jul Capacity Util +0.7-Pt At 79.3%; Consensus 79.1%

US Jun Industrial Production Revised To -0.8% From -0.5%

US Jun Capacity Use Revised To 78.6% From 78.9%

U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES SLIGHTLY EXTEND LOSSES AFTER JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA

YEN WEAKENS TO 145.90 LEVEL THAT TRIGGERED SEPT. INTERVENTION

US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS RISE TO SESSION HIGH OF 4.235% AFTER INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA

DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES COMING FROM CHINA HAVE ONLY JUST BEGUN TO IMPACT GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKETS, DISCOUNTING LIKELY TO ACCELERATE – PIMCO

$COIN - COINBASE GLOBAL SHARES UP 3.3% AFTER CO GETS APPROVAL FROM NATIONAL FUTURES ASSOCIATION TO OFFER FUTURES TRADING TO U.S. RETAIL CUSTOMERS

$TSLA - TESLA SHARES DOWN 1%; CO CUTS MODEL S AND X PRICES BY OVER 6% IN CHINA

UK rents rise at record pace as house price growth slows

UK residential rents rose by the highest amount on record last month while house price growth declined in June, according to official data published on Wednesday.

Prices paid by tenants rose 5.3 per cent in the 12 months to July, the largest annual percentage change since the Office for National Statistics data series began in January 2016.

S&P 500 NOW POSITIVE, LAST UP 0.18%; DOW UP 0.45%

WTO REJECTS CHINA’S TRUMP-ERA 2018 TARIFFS AGAINST US EXPORTS

 

CHINA SAYS JAPAN MADE `WRONG DECISION' IN FUKUSHIMA RELEASE

CHINA EXTENDS TAX WAIVER FOR OVERSEAS CRUDE FUTURES INVESTORS

EUROZONE CURRENT ACCOUNT (JUN) ACTUAL: 35.8B VS 9.1B PREVIOUS

U.S. S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES UP 0.30%, NASDAQ FUTURES UP 0.46%, DOW FUTURES UP 0.17%

CHINA COAST GUARD SAYS CHINA ISSUED WARNING TO PHILIPPINE SHIPS

LME ON-WARRANT ALUMINUM STOCKPILES SURGE BY MOST SINCE APRIL 18

JAPAN PM TO SEEK EXTENSION OF GASOLINE SUBSIDY: TV ASAHI

NASDAQ 100 FUTURES EXTEND GAINS TO SESSION HIGH OF 0.5%

IRAQI, TURKISH OIL MINISTERS DISCUSS JOINT RELATIONS IN OIL AND ENERGY SECTOR - STATEMENT

JAPAN PM INSTRUCTS ON MULLING GASOLINE SUBSIDY EXTENSION:NIKKEI

STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX EXTENDS GAIN TO SESSION HIGH OF 1%

U.S. COMMERCE SECRETARY RAIMONDO TO VISIT CHINA AUG. 27-30 TO MEET SENIOR GOVT OFFICIALS -DEPARTMENT

CHINA CONFIRMS US COMMERCE SECRETARY TO VISIT AUG. 27-30

UK CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS ORDERS (AUG) ACTUAL: -15 VS -9 PREVIOUS; EST -13

SOUTH AFRICA PRESIDENT GODONGWANA SAYS PREMATURE' FOR SOUTH AFRICA TO STOP USD, SWIFT USE RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY: RUSSIA DESTROYS U.S.-MADE MILITARY VESSEL NEAR SNAKE ISLAND

DOLLAR EXTENDS FALL VS YEN, NOW DOWN 0.5% ON DAY AT 145.50

CHINA'S XI SAYS WILLING TO TAKE CHINA-SOUTH AFRICA TIES TO NEW STAGE

UKRAINE'S ZELENSKY DISCUSSES UKRAINIAN GRAIN EXPORT VIA CROATIAN PROTS

$ZM +4,10% premkt


$ZM: Citi raises price target to $66 from $65

$ZM: Wells Fargo cuts target price to $75 from $80
$ZM: JPMorgan cuts target price to $83 from $85
$ZM: Bernstein cuts target price to $82 from $92

EUROPEAN BENCHMARK GAS RISES AS MUCH AS 7% TO €43.65/MWH

IRANIAN PRESIDENT RAISI SAYS TEHRAN WILL CUT OFF "ANY HAND INVOLVED IN AGGRESSION AGAINST IRAN" - FARS

NASDAQ FUTURES EXTEND GAINS, LAST UP 0.7%

CANADA GOVT SAYS TO CHALLENGE U.S. SOFTWOOD LUMBER DUTIES

CHINA'S COMMERCE MINISTRY: U.S. REMOVING 27 CHINESE ENTITIES FROM RESTRICTION LIST GOOD FOR FIRMS FROM BOTH COUNTRIES TO DEVELOP NORMAL TRADES

CHINA'S COMMERCE MINISTRY: THE REMOVAL IS IN LINE WITH COMMON INTERESTS OF BOTH SIDES

$JPM - JPMORGAN PAYMENTS ENABLES TAP TO PAY ON IPHONE FOR US MERCHANTS

FED’S BARKIN: IF US HAS RECESSION, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LESS SEVERE ONE

U.S. FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION HOLDING RUNWAY SAFETY MEETINGS AT 90 AIRPORTS AFTER SERIES OF CLOSE CALLS

BRAZIL'S LULA SAYS WE SUPPORT A TRADING CURRENCY FOR BRICS COUNTRIES

BRAZIL'S LULA SAYS WE ARE NOT REJECTING THE U.S. DOLLAR, IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST, BUT SOMETIMES WE CAN TRADE IN OUR OWN CURRENCIES

FED'S BARKIN: FED NEEDS TO ACHIEVE 2% TARGET TO ENSURE ITS CREDIBILITY

FED'S BARKIN: TRY NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SHORT TERM MARKET MOVES

PHILADELPHIA FED NON-MANUFACTURING REGIONAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX -13.1 IN AUG VS 1.4 IN JULY

Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn

FED'S BARKIN: ACCOUNTING FOR IMPLICATIONS OF WORK FROM HOME STILL HAS A WAYS TO GO

FED'S BARKIN: CREDIT CARD DEBT IS NOW BASICALLY ON THE TREND LINE FROM BEFORE THE PANDEMIC

BINANCE SAYS BINANCE PAY HAS NOW LAUNCHED IN BRAZIL

FED'S BARKIN: U.S. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE "IMPRESSIVE" COMPARED TO MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, CURRENTLY "QUITE STRONG"

FED'S BARKIN: BALANCE SHEET NORMALIZATION IN THE "BACKGROUND" OF POLICY AT THIS POINT

IRAQ HAS NOT REACHED AN AGREEMENT WITH TURKEY ON TUESDAY TO ALLOW AN IMMEDIATE RESUMPTION OF NORTHERN OIL EXPORTS – SOURCES

IRAQI OIL MINISTER, HIS TURKISH COUNTERPART AGREE TO HOLD FURTHER TALKS IN FUTURE TO DISCUSS OIL EXPORT RESUMPTION – SOURCES

NVIDIA SHARES EXTEND GAINS PREMARKET, LAST UP 2.4%

U.S. TREASURIES PARE GAINS; 2-YEAR YIELDS HIGHER ON THE DAY

$TSLA - TESLA SHARES EXTEND GAINS PREMARKET, LAST UP 4%

ANT GROUP WILL CUT FOREIGN INVESTORS OUT OF FAST-GROWING DATABASE BUSINESS - THE INFORMATION

U.S. TO IMPOSE VISA RESTRICTIONS ON CHINESE TO ADDRESS FORCED ASSIMILATION IN TIBET - U.S. STATE DEPT

FTX FOUNDER SAM BANKMAN-FRIED PLEADS NOT GUILTY TO AUG. 14 INDICTMENT ON FRAUD, CONSPIRACY CHARGES — COURT HEARING

$META - META INTRODUCES MULTILINGUAL AI TRANSLATION MODEL SEAMLESSM4T

$NVDA - NVIDIA SHARES HIT RECORD HIGH, LAST UP 2.0% AT $479.2

$TSLA - TESLA SHARES UP 3.52% FOLLOWING 7.3% RALLY IN THE PREVIOUS SESSION

$AMC Paused due to volatility

$COIN - COINBASE GLOBAL SHARES UP 2.03% AFTER CO SAYS IT WILL ACQUIRE STAKE IN CRYPTOCURRENCY OPERATOR CIRCLE

$AMC Resumed Trading

$MSFT $ATVI - EU WEIGHING NEED FOR MICROSOFT TO REFILE ACTIVISION DEAL

$AMC Paused due to volatility

CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: SUMMONS JAPAN AMBASSADOR TO CHINA OVER JAPAN'S PLAN FOR RELEASING FUKUSHIMA WATER

CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: EXPRESSES GRAVE CONCERN AND STRONG OPPOSITION

U.S. July Existing Home Sales Due 10 a.m. ET; Seen -0.2%

$COIN - COINBASE TAKES STAKE IN STABLECOIN FIRM CIRCLE, SHUTS DOWN JOINT VENTURE AS IT SEES ‘REGULATORY CLARITY’ - CNBC

$NVDA - NVIDIA SHARES TURN NEGATIVE; LAST DOWN 0.8%

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX AT SESSION HIGH; LAST UP 0.31% TO 103.62

DOLLAR/YEN DOWN 0.08% TO 146.11

EURO DOWN 0.45% TO $1.0846

U.S RICHMOND MANUFACTURING INDEX (AUG) ACTUAL: -7 VS -9 PREVIOUS; EST -7

US Jul Existing Home Sales -2.2% To 4.07M Rate
US Jul Median Existing Home Price +1.9% On Yr To $406,700
US Inventory Of Unsold US Homes At 3.3 Months Supply

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 BOTH TURN NEGATIVE, ERASING MORNING GAINS

EURO AT NEAR 7-WEEK LOW VS U.S. DOLLAR; LAST DOWN 0.56% TO $1.0834

U.S. BIG BANKS SHARES DOWN AFTER S&P DOWNGRADES RATINGS AND OUTLOOK OF MULTIPLE REGIONAL LENDERS

CITIGROUP SHARES DOWN 0.92%, WELLS FARGO SHARES DOWN 1.12%, GOLDMAN SACHS SHARES DOWN 0.74%

JPMORGAN SHARES FALL 1.36%, BANK OF AMERICA SHARES FALL 1.28%, MORGAN STANLEY SHARES DOWN 0.55%

U.S. AMBASSADOR TO INDIA, SPEAKING ON INVESTMENTS COMING TO INDIA, SAYS STILL SEE LOTS OF BARRIERS AND UNPREDICTABILITY IN INDIA OVER RULES

$INTC - INTEL AIMS TO QUADRUPLE CAPACITY FOR ITS MOST ADVANCED CHIP PACKAGING SERVICES BY 2025, INCLUDING WITH NEW FACILITY IN MALAYSIA - NIKKEI

WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SULLIVAN: BIDEN WILL TRAVEL TO INDIA FOR G20 SUMMIT NEXT MONTH

Sam Bankman-Fried has been subsisting on a bread-and-water diet and can't adequately prepare for his upcoming trial without access to evidence and his medication, his lawyers told a judge during his first court appearance since he had his bail revoked.

XI SKIPS BRICS BUSINESS FORUM THAT HE WAS SCHEDULED TO ATTEND

WHITE HOUSE'S SULLIVAN: RAIMONDO, IN CHINA, WILL CARRY MESSAGE THAT U.S. IS NOT SEEKING TO DECOUPLE FROM CHINA, BUT WILL PROTECT NATIONAL SECURITY

WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SULLIVAN: UKRAINE IS MAKING GAINS IN THE SOUTH AMID RUSSIAN ATTACKS

BRITAIN'S FTSE 100 UP 0.2%
GERMANY'S DAX UP 0.7%
FRANCE'S CAC 40 UP 0.6%
SPAIN'S IBEX UP 0.6%

WHITE HOUSE'S SULLIVAN: U.S. DOES NOT ASSESS THAT CONFLICT IN UKRAINE IS A STALEMATE

WHITE HOUSE'S SULLIVAN: RAIMONDO IN CHINA WILL REINFORCE THAT U.S. IS FOCUSED ON SUSTAINING AN ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA

WHITE HOUSE'S SULLIVAN: A STABLE CHINESE ECONOMY IS GOOD FOR THE WORLD

WHITE HOUSE'S SULLIVAN: U.S. NOT ACTING TO SLOW DOWN CHINA'S GROWTH

WHITE HOUSE'S SULLIVAN: SEEING REDUCTION IN LEVEL OF TRANSPARENCY IN REPORTING ON CHINESE ECONOMY IN RECENT MONTHS

$GS - GOLDMAN TO JOIN TDR’S SUBWAY BID TO RIVAL FRONTRUNNER ROARK

RICHMOND FED'S BARKIN SAYS CONSUMER SPENDING, ECONOMIC STRENGTH MAKE IT POSSIBLE US ECONOMY COULD REACCELERATE BEFORE INFLATION COOLS

FED'S BARKIN SAYS HE WON'T PREJUDGE OUTCOME OF FED'S SEPT. 19-20 POLICY MEETING

FED'S BARKIN SAYS SAYS IF INFLATION REMAINS HIGH AND DEMAND GIVES 'NO SIGNAL' IT IS LIKELY TO DROP, THAT WOULD REQUIRE TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY

EX-JPMORGAN GOLD TRADER GREGG SMITH GETS TWO YEARS FOR SPOOFING

GOLDMAN SACHS FIVE-YEAR CDS RISES TO 78 BPS, HIGHEST SINCE JULY 21 - S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE

RUSSIA'S PUTIN: DE-DOLLARISATION IS AN IRREVERSIBLE PROCESS

CHINA'S XI JINPING AND SOUTH AFRICA'S RAMAPHOSA SIGN MOU

$NVDA - NVIDIA SHARES EXTEND LOSSES; LAST DOWN 3.3%

$COIN - COINBASE GLOBAL SHARES REVERSE COURSE, LAST DOWN 1.5%

$VMW and $NVDA today announced the expansion of their strategic partnership to ready the hundreds of thousands of enterprises that run on VMware's cloud infrastructure for the era of generative AI.

CHINA'S WANG: WE WILL EXPAND BRICS+ MODEL

CHINA'S WANG: WILL ACTIVELY ADVANCE BRICS MEMBERSHIP EXPANSION

BIDEN WILL TRAVEL TO NEW DELHI, INDIA, FROM SEPTEMBER 7-10 TO ATTEND G20 LEADERS' SUMMIT - WHITE HOUSE

98 COUNTERPARTIES TAKE $1.812 TLN AT FED REVERSE REPO OP

BINANCE.US SAYS CLIENTS CAN BUY USDT ON BINANCE.US THROUGH PAYMENT PARTNERS LIKE MOONPAY

 

RUSSIA'S PUTIN, AT BRICS: RUSSIA'S ACTIONS IN UKRAINE MEAN ONLY TO END THE WAR WHICH WEST STARTED THERE

RUSSIA'S PUTIN, AT BRICS: WE SEEK JUSTIFIABLE SETTLEMENT BY PEACEFUL MEANS

BRICS SUMMIT: INDIA PM MODI SAYS INDIA WELCOMES MOVING FORWARD WITH CONSENSUS ON BRICS EXPANSION

WTI FUTURES FALL BY $1 TO $78.64 A BARREL

CHINA XI SAYS BRICS NATIONS SHOULD STRENGTHEN PARTNERSHIP

CHINA'S XI, AT BRICS SUMMIT: WE SHOULD ACCELERATE EXPANSION PROCESS OF BRICS, LET MORE COUNTRIES JOIN BRICS

RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY: RUSSIA AND IRAN DISCUSSED MILITARY COOPERATION - IFAX

UKRAINE'S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KUBRAKOV SAYS 13,000 TONS OF GRAIN WAS DESTROYED IN RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK ON DANUBE RIVER PORT IZMAIL

UKRAINE'S KUBRAKOV SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO STOP UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

US MBA HOME-PURCHASE APPLICATIONS DROP TO LOWEST SINCE 1995

US 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE JUMPS TO 7.31%, HIGHEST SINCE 2000

FBI Says North Korean Hackers May Try to Sell $40M of Bitcoin

JP MORGAN NOW EXPECTS ECB TO PAUSE IN SEPTEMBER MEETING, POSTPONES FINAL 25 BPS HIKE FORECAST TO OCTOBER

INDIA SET TO PROHIBIT MILLS FROM EXPORTING SUGAR IN 2023-24 AS SCANT RAINS HIT CANE CROP - GOVERNMENT SOURCES

$AMC Extends Recent Decline, Down Another 21%

$TSLA - TESLA SHARES DOWN 2.3% PREMARKET AFTER REPORT SAYS CO'S GERMAN PLANT LOWERS PRODUCTION TARGET AMID SLOWER OUTPUT

$PTON - PELOTON EXTENDS PREMARKET DECLINE TO AS MUCH AS 32%

SHELL TAPS GOLDMAN SACHS TO EXPLORE POSSIBLE SALE OF SINGAPORE REFINERY AND PETCHEM PLANTS -SOURCES

SHELL SAYS IT IS EXPLORING SEVERAL OPTIONS, INCLUDING DIVESTMENT

First-time homeownership surges: Half of all home buyers are making their first purchase: Zillow

POUND DOWN 0.79% AGAINST DOLLAR TO $1.2631

$IDEX - ideanomics Approves 1-for-125 Reverse Stock Split

UKRAINE'S PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY SAYS CRIMEA WILL BE DE-OCCUPIED AS WILL ALL OTHER PARTS OF UKRAINE

$MNK - MALLINCKRODT FILES FOR CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY IN DELAWARE

CANADA RETAIL SALES (MOM) (JUN) ACTUAL: 0.1% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.0%

CANADA CORE RETAIL SALES (MOM) (JUN) ACTUAL: -0.8% VS 0.0% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%

CHARLES SCHWAB TRADE SENTIMENT SURVEY: TRADERS ARE MORE BULLISH ON US STOCKS THAN IN Q2

INDIA'S CHANDRAYAAN-3 SPACECRAFT LANDS ON MOON – SPACE AGENCY

INDIA PM MODI: ALL SET FOR HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT

India Becomes First Country to Land on Lunar South Pole, Indian Space Agency Says -- WSJ

$NFLX - NETFLIX CONTINUES US SUBSCRIBER GAINS, MARKET RESEARCHER SAYS

CZ of Binance Alleged to Be Pushing Bitcoin Price Down

ECB to Raise Deposit Rate to At Least 4%, T.Rowe Price Says

Eurozone Bond Yields to Stay High Near Term, Will Fall Once ECB Signals a Pause, T.Rowe Price Says

Euro to Stay Resilient Until September ECB Meeting, Fall to $1.05 By Year-End, T.Rowe Price Says

BOE to Raise Rates Twice More, Taking Bank Rate to 5.75%, T.Rowe Price Says -- Interview

REUTERS POLL-CORRECTION IN EQUITY MARKETS LIKELY OR VERY LIKELY BEFORE END-2023, SAY 55 OF 77 ANALYSTS

$NKE - NIKE SHARES FALL FOR TENTH CONSECUTIVE DAY, EXTENDING THEIR LONGEST LOSING STREAK ON RECORD

SPOT SILVER CLIMBS 3%

Fitch Downgrades Country Garden Services to 'BB+'; Rating on Negative Watch

WTI Oil Falls 2.4% to $77.76 a Barrel; Would Be Largest One-Day Decline Since June 27

U.S MANUFACTURING PMI (AUG) ACTUAL: 47.0 VS 49.0 PREVIOUS; EST 49.3

U.S S&P GLOBAL COMPOSITE PMI (AUG) ACTUAL: 50.4 VS 52.0 PREVIOUS; EST 52.0

U.S SERVICES PMI (AUG) ACTUAL: 51.0 VS 52.3 PREVIOUS; EST 52.3

EURO ZONE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT -16.0 IN AUGUST (RTRS POLL -14.3) - EU COMMISSION

DOLLAR/YEN DOWN 0.68% TO 144.87

SPOT GOLD CLIMBS 1%

U.S. TREASURIES EXTEND GAINS ON PMI; 10-YR YIELD DROPS 10BPS ON DAY

U.S. July New Home Sales Due 10 a.m. ET; Seen +1.0%

US Jul New Home Sales +4.4% To 714K; Consensus 704.0K

US Jun New Home Sales Revised To 684.0K From 697.0K

US Jul New Home Sales Supply At 7.3 Months

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

U.S. SEC TO IMPOSE NEW HEDGE FUND, PRIVATE EQUITY FEE DISCLOSURES

US PAYROLLS TO BE REVISED DOWN BY 306K IN PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

 

SOUTH AFRICAN FOREIGN MINISTER PANDOR : WE HAVE AGREED ON THE MATTER OF BRICS EXPANSION

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK PRESIDENT - CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT MORE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LOOKING TO CHINA, OTHERS FOR SUPPORT RATHER THAN TO WESTERN INSTITUTIONS

DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks -6.134M Bbl In Wk; Seen -2.4M Bbl

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT APPROVES POSSIBLE SALE OF F-16 INFRARED SEARCH AND TRACK SYSTEMS AND RELATED EQUIPMENT TO TAIWAN'S REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE IN THE U.S FOR AN ESTIMATED COST OF $500 MILLION -PENTAGON

WTI Oil Down 1.5% at $78.50 as US Crude Output Hits Another 3-Year High

US DOLLAR HITS TWO-WEEK LOW VS YEN, LAST DOWN 0.8% AT 144.73 YEN

$PTON - Peloton Interactive Down Over 20%, on Track for Record Low Close

6.2 MAG. EARTHQUAKE 15 KM NW OF EL HOYO ARGENTINA - USGS

UKRAINE ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE IS WORKING TO GET LONG-RANGE WEAPONS

$NVDA - NVIDIA SHARES RISE 2.1% AHEAD OF Q2 RESULTS LATER IN THE DAY

Billionaires' Row Penthouse Finds Buyer Following Latest Price Cut

A penthouse at One57 on New York's Billionaires' Row has gone into contract after seeing its price slashed to $34 million, about $13 million less than its 2015 sale price, according to listings website StreetEasy

BTS: North American Transborder Freight Down 4.6% in June 2023 From June 2022

BTS: $134.8B of Total Transborder Freight Moved by All Modes of Transportation in June
BRITAIN'S FTSE 100 UP 0.7%

GERMANY'S DAX UP 0.2%

FRANCE'S CAC 40 UP 0.1%

SPAIN'S IBEX UP 0.1%

DOLLAR/YEN AT NEAR 2-WEEK LOW; LAST DOWN 0.84% TO 144.66

U.S. IS SEEKING SIX-MONTH EXTENSION TO U.S.-CHINA SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AGREEMENT -STATE DEPARTMENT

$GOOGL - GOOGLE - STARTING THIS FOOTBALL SEASON, NFL SUNDAY TICKET ON YOUTUBE AND YOUTUBE TV WILL BE FULLY INTEGRATED INTO GOOGLE TV IN U.S.

WOODSIDE: NO UPDATE ON AUSTRALIA LNG STRIKE TALKS

UNITED STATES SANCTIONS ROMAN SEMENOV, ONE OF THREE CO-FOUNDERS OF VIRTUAL CURRENCY MIXER TORNADO CASH - TREASURY DEPT STATEMENT

$NFLX - NETFLIX SHARES EXTEND GAINS AS PASSWORD-SHARING CRACKDOWN KEEPS SIGNUPS AT ELEVATED LEVELS; LAST UP 4.6%

S&P 500 EXTENDS GAINS, UP 1%

CHINA'S XI SAYS CHINA SUPPORTS AFRICAN UNION IN JOINING G20 - XINHUA

US 20-Year Bonds: 4.499%; 43.98% At High

RUSSIA SAYS 10 PEOPLE KILLED AFTER PRIVATE JET CRASHES IN TVER REGION NORTH OF MOSCOW

RUSSIA SAYS EVGENY PRIGOZHIN COULD BE ON BOARD OF PLANE THAT CRASHED IN TVER REGION NORTH OF MOSCOW - TASS

RUSSIAN CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY SAYS PRIGOZHIN WAS ON LIST OF PASSENGERS OF THE CRASHED PLANE - TASS

96 COUNTERPARTIES TAKE $1.817 TLN AT FED REVERSE REPO OP

TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD FALLS 10.5 BASIS POINTS THROUGH 4.30%

US TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD HITS ONE-WEEK LOW, LAST DOWN 13.8 BPS AT 4.191%

Plane Carrying Wagner Owner Prigozhin Crashes in Russia, All Aboard Killed

Footage posted by onlookers in the Tver region showed what seemed like the trail of an antiaircraft missile and then the jet, an Embraer Legacy 600, falling out of the sky with one wing missing. Social media channels close to Wagner said that Russian air defenses had shot down the plane, which was one of several aircraft owned by Prigozhin.

RUSSIAN EMERGENCIES SERVICES: EIGHT BODIES FOUND ON SITE OF PRIVATE JET CRASH - RIA

VENEZUELA AND US IN TALKS OVER POSSIBLE SANCTIONS RELIEF

SEC Seeks More Visibility Into High-Speed Traders' Treasury-Bond Moves

The Securities and Exchange Commission is seeking to force more high-frequency traders to report data on their Treasury bond trades, part of the agency's ongoing effort to step up regulation of electronic traders in the U.S. government debt market.

BIDEN HAS BEEN BRIEFED ON REPORTED PLANE CRASH IN MOSCOW- WHITE HOUSE

U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES SETTLE AT $78.89/BBL, DOWN 75 CENTS, 0.94%

$EA - Electronic Arts' BioWare to Eliminate 50 Positions

ARGENTINA PLANS TO TAP $7.5 BLN IMF DISBURSEMENT TO REPAY PART OF CHINA SWAP LINE LOAN - SOURCES

U.S. STATE DEPT: 'NO ONE SHOULD BE SURPRISED' IF CONFIRMED THAT PRIGOZHIN WAS ON BOARD

NORTH KOREA APPEARS TO HAVE FIRED MISSILE – J-ALERT JAPAN GOVT EMERGENCY BROADCASTING SYSTEM

JAPAN GOVT TELLS OKINAWA RESIDENTS TO TAKE COVER INDOORS OR UNDERGROUND - J-ALERT

$X - ESMARK, INC. WILL NOT MAKE A BID FOR U.S. STEEL

BIDEN SAYS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHAT HAPPENED WITH PRIGHOZIN BUT NOT SURPRISED BY REPORTS

JAPAN GOVT SAYS MISSILE HAS FLOWN PAST TOWARDS PACIFIC OCEAN

NORTH KOREA FIRES WHAT IT CLAIMS TO BE SPACE LAUNCH VEHICLE TOWARD THE SOUTH- YONHAP

BIDEN: THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH THAT HAPPENS IN RUSSIA THAT PUTIN IS NOT BEHIND

JAPAN DID NOT ISSUE ORDER TO DESTROY MISSILE - NHK