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AAPL - Apple Inc.

Discussion in 'NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by bigbear0083, Jul 14, 2017.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players to consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, and education, enterprise, and government customers worldwide. The company also sells related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications. It offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and Mac, a line of desktop and portable personal computers. The company also provides iLife, a consumer-oriented digital lifestyle software application suite; iWork, an integrated productivity suite that helps users create, present, and publish documents, presentations, and spreadsheets; and other application software, such as Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro X, and FileMaker Pro. In addition, it offers Apple TV that connects to consumers' TV and enables them to access digital content directly for streaming high definition video, playing music and games, and viewing photos; Apple Watch, a personal electronic device; and iPod, a line of portable digital music and media players. Further, the company sells Apple-branded and third-party Mac-compatible, and iOS-compatible accessories, such as headphones, displays, storage devices, Beats products, and other connectivity and computing products and supplies. Additionally, it offers iCloud, a cloud service; AppleCare that offers support options for its customers; and Apple Pay, a mobile payment service. The company sells and delivers digital content and applications through the iTunes Store, App Store, Mac App Store, TV App Store, iBooks Store, and Apple Music. It also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force, as well as through third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and value-added resellers. Apple Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, August 1, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.57 per share on revenue of $44.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.42 to $1.61 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.56% with revenue increasing by 5.46%. Short interest has decreased by 14.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.2% above its 200 day moving average of $133.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 12, 2017 there was some notable buying of 18,710 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    AAPL reporting after the close today.
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    printing new ATHs in the afterhours after ER

    Apple jumps 4% to record high after earnings beat estimates
    • Beat on earnings and revenue
    • Adjusted EPS: $1.67 per share vs. $1.57 per share expected by a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate
    • Revenue: $45.4 billion vs. $44.89 billion expected by a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/apple-earnings-q3-2017.html
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    big apple event tomorrow at 1pm eastern! the much anticipated iphone 8 is suppose to be unveiled. plus an iphone x from what i've been hearing? i'm not really much into these big annual events, but admittedly this one does kind of have my interest. :p
     
  6. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Let's see if the iPhone 8 will meet the hype :p I am using iPhone 7 and pretty sure I will not buy the 8 :p
     
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Apple (AAPL) Widens the Gap on Alphabet (GOOGL)
    Sep 12, 2017

    Apple (AAPL) has posted a 40% gain so far in 2017, which has pushed its market cap up to $843 billion as of this writing.

    You might not remember, but there was a time last year when Alphabet (GOOGL) overtook Apple (AAPL) as the largest company in the world. That didn’t last long, however, as you can see in the charts below. At this point Apple has a lead on Alphabet of nearly $200 billion in market cap. That’s more in market cap than all but a handful of companies in the S&P 500.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    So...now that we've gotten through this keynote event today, I'm curious to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the new iPhone 8 and X(10)? Did it meet the "hype" that most people were anticipating? :p
     
  9. Jrich

    Jrich Active Member

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    Curious why they bothered with the 8??

    If you're gonna skip 9 and go strait to 10, might as well skip 8 too
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Chart of the Day - Apple (AAPL) Falls From the Tree
    Wed, May 12, 2021

    COTD Bullet Points:
    • Apple (AAPL) is on pace to close below its 200-DMA for the first time in more than a year.
    • Going back to the early 1980s, there have been seven other streaks that lasted a year or more.
    • Following the end of prior streaks of closing above its 200-DMA, AAPL tended to see additional short-term weakness but was higher three months later every single time.

    Chart of the Day:

    It's been a rough several days for a lot of stocks, including the S&P 500's largest stock - Apple (AAPL). Yesterday, the stock saw a successful test of its 200-DMA, but the bounce didn't last long, and while some time remains in the trading day, the stock is on pace to close below that level for the first time in more than a year. Warren Buffett commented earlier this month that selling some of his holdings in AAPL was 'probably a mistake,' but as the stock sells off, the trade is looking better and better. Let's just hope that for the broader market's sake (it is the largest stock in the S&P 500) that Buffett's 'mistake' doesn't end up being that he didn't sell his entire stake. After all, AAPL's average closing price in Q4 2020 (the quarter that Buffett sold shares) was $120.28, and as of this afternoon, the stock is barely hanging on to $120.00.

    [​IMG]

    As mentioned above, AAPL has closed above its 200-DMA every day for more than a year. That's not the longest streak in the stock's history, but it is one of the longest. The last time there was a streak that lasted longer was in the 383 trading days ending in February 2018 after the volatility crash. In the post-financial crisis period, the current streak is the fourth such streak of more than a year, and going back to the early 1980s, there have been seven other streaks that lasted a year or more.

    [​IMG]

    Now that AAPL is on the verge of ending this streak, what now? The table and chart below show AAPL's performance following the end of prior streaks where the stock went a year or longer without closing below its 200-DMA. For each period, we show the stock's performance from the close on the first day that the stock closed below the 200-DMA. AAPL's performance over the following week and month has been mixed with a downward bias as the stock's median performance was a decline of 3.06% and 5.52%, respectively. Three months later, the stock tended to turn around posting a median gain of 17.1% with gains all seven times. Moving out over the next six and twelve months, though, returns turned more mixed. While the stock still saw positive returns on both an average and median basis, the magnitude of the gain wasn't any larger than the three-month average and median returns. More often than not, in fact, the stock's six-month performance was lower than the three-month performance. In other words, while the stock bounced in the short to intermediate-term, it started to run out of gas from there.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Berkshire's Apple (AAPL) Weighting Swells to Nearly 50%
    Mon, Dec 13, 2021

    The Oracle of Omaha is known for weathering storms and emerging stronger after market pullbacks. In March of last year, we highlighted the fact that Buffett's portfolio was seeing declines in line with the broader market, and the legendary investor seemed just as hurt as other market participants. Even though Buffett's strategy of "be greedy only when others are fearful" has historically been a successful one, he did not aggressively buy the COVID-related dip, and the company now has record amounts of cash stockpiled on its balance sheet.

    Although Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) has almost $150 billion in cash, the company's portfolio has still performed strongly. Below is a look at Berkshire's 20 largest equity holdings as of today based on reported holdings at the end of Q3. (This doesn't take into account changes that may have occurred since the end of Q3 since Berkshire doesn't have to report holdings again until early 2022.) Berkshire's position in Apple (AAPL) has swelled to nearly 50% after the stock's 28.5% gain so far this quarter! Berkshire's next largest holding all the way down at 13.3% is Bank of America (BAC), which is up 3.4% QTD. American Express (AXP) and Coca-Cola (KO) rank 3rd and 4th with weightings of 7.5% and 6.9%, respectively. Only a handful of other companies have weightings above 1%: Kraft Heinz (KHC), Moody's (MCO), Verizon (VZ), US Bancorp (USB), DaVita (DVA), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), General Motors (GM), and Chevron (CVX).

    Quarter-to-date, Berkshire's portfolio (as it stood on 9/30/21) would be up 13.9%, and that's due largely to Apple's 28.5% gain so far in Q4. Seven of Berkshire's twenty largest holdings are in the red so far this quarter, with Charter (CHTR) down the most at 17.2%.

    [​IMG]

    AAPL now makes up almost half of the overall Berkshire equity portfolio (and a quarter of the company's market cap), which means that Berkshire Hathaway should be correlated to the performance of AAPL. Although the two equities have a semi-strong relationship over the last year with a correlation coefficient of 0.46, the correlation in Q4 has dramatically decreased. Since 9/30, the correlation coefficient is only 0.12, which implies only a very small correlation. Whereas AAPL has traded over 28.5% higher in Q4, BRK/B has only appreciated by about 6.5%. While AAPL shareholders have been rewarded so far in Q4, the stock of one of AAPL's largest holders has lagged the S&P 500.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting, I would have never thought AAPL makes up almost half of the overall Berkshire equity portfolio if I didn't see your post Cy :eek:
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Trillion Dollar Thresholds
    Tue, Jan 4, 2022

    Back in August 2018, AAPL became the founding member of the trillion-dollar market cap club here in the US. In the time since then, membership has grown by five, though, only four other stocks currently have market caps above $1 trillion: Microsoft (MSFT) at $2.5 trillion, Google (GOOGL) at $1.95 trillion, Amazon (AMZN) at $1.7 trillion, and Tesla (TSLA) at $1.19 trillion. Facebook (FB) also crossed the $1 trillion threshold halfway through last year, but it has since turned lower. Yesterday, AAPL was the talk of the town as its market cap briefly touched above $3 trillion, though, those levels did not hold and the stock has still yet to close with a market cap above that level. While it has only spanned a few years' time, there is now a decent sample size of stocks to look back on for past examples of how they perform after hitting the trillion-dollar market cap milestone.

    In the chart below, we show the performance of the various mega-cap stocks following their first close with a market cap above $1 trillion (or $2 trillion where applicable). Generally speaking, after reaching such a milestone, the general pattern has been some consolidation lasting upwards of a few months followed by a more consistent resumed uptrend one year out from the occurrence. Amazon (AMZN) has averaged the strongest such response, though, its timing coincided nearly perfectly with the COVID crash (peak on 2/19/20) and the initial stages of the current bull run. Alphabet (GOOGL) is a similar story though it took longer to recover.

    With regards to AAPL and the times it hit a $1 trillion and then a $2 trillion dollar market cap, the former instance saw an immediate strong reaction in the following months followed by weaker performance over the next 3 to 12 months. On the other hand, the more recent occurrence in which it crossed a $2 trillion market cap saw a brief spike higher over the next few weeks before moving back below $2 trillion for the span of a few months. That level would then offer support roughly six months later.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    AAPL Streaks Above 200 DMA
    Mon, Mar 14, 2022

    Shares of Apple (AAPL) have come perilously close to breaking below the 200-day moving average (DMA) - a level it hasn't closed below in 195 trading days (6/3/21). The chart below doesn't include today's trading so far, but as we type this now, the stock is trading below its 200-DMA of $153.27.

    [​IMG]

    In the post iPod era (October 2001), the current streak ranks as the 8th longest of consecutive closes above the 200-DMA. Ironically, the current streak just moved into 8th place last week after it eclipsed the 193 trading day streak that ended two years ago yesterday at 193 trading days. The chart below shows historical streaks where AAPL traded above its 200-DMA since the launch of the iPod. Again, while 195 trading days may sound long, the current streak ranks nowhere close in length to the three-year streak that ended in May 2008, and the two-plus year streak that ended in 2011.

    [​IMG]

    So how has AAPL stock performed after prior extended streaks of closes above its 200-DMA came to an end? The table below lists each of the prior nine times that AAPL first closed below its 200-DMA and shows how the stock performed going forward. For each period, we show AAPL's performance in the six months leading up to the end of the streak, and then how the stock performed over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year.

    Of the prior streaks shown, AAPL's median performance in the last six months of the prior streaks was a gain of over 11% with only one period of negative returns. With a gain of 2.7% over the last six months, if AAPL closes below its 200-DMA in the near future, its performance during this period will rank as the second weakest of the streaks shown. Once AAPL ends the streak, its short-term performance was weak with median declines of 5.0% and 0.2% over the next week and month, respectively. In each case, the stock was also down more than half of the time. For a stock like AAPL which has performed incredibly well over the last 20 years, these short-term returns are well below the historical average of 0.8% and 3.0%, respectively.

    Although short-term returns for AAPL after breaking below its 200-DMA were weak, over the following three months, the stock generally got back on track with a median gain of 17.1% and gains more than three-quarters of the time. That compares to a median gain of 9.3% for all periods since October 2001. Six-month returns were also slightly better than average on a median basis (19.5% vs 18.5%) although the consistency of positive returns was lower. Finally, looking out over the next year, shares of AAPL experienced a median gain of 24.0% with positive returns just over 60% of the time. While 24% is nothing to sneeze at, it's actually weak when you consider the fact that AAPL's median one-year return for all periods since 2001 has been a gain of over 40%. As the individual periods indicate, AAPL's performance following prior breaks of the 200-DMA has varied widely, but in aggregate, the stock has tended to underperform its historical average in the short term but then show some improvement over the following three to six months.

    [​IMG]

    As always, investors should use any names listed as a starting point for further research. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Happy Birthday, iPhone!
    Wed, Jun 29, 2022

    Whether it is currently in your pocket or in your hand as you read this, if you own an Apple iPhone, make sure to wish it a happy birthday. Exactly a decade and a half ago to the day, what is now the staple of the smartphone market first hit the shelves. Much of Apple's growth in the years since the smartphone debuted can credited to this revolutionary device. Over the past four quarters the phone accounted for $200 billion in sales which is a 52% share of total revenues for the company. Even though it still currently accounts for a majority of one of the world's biggest companies' revenues, over the past few years, that share has been on the decline having peaked at 69.4% in Q1 2017.

    [​IMG]

    Since the first generation iPhone was released, the stock of Apple has posted astounding gains. In fact, of all current S&P 500 members, AAPL ranks as the fifth best performer (based on price change) in the index since the iPhone debut 15 years ago. The only stocks to have posted even more impressive gains have been Netflix (NFLX), DexCom (DXCM), Regeneron (RGEN), and Amazon (AMZN). That is not to mention that at its high earlier this year, Apple's post iPhone rally stood above 4,000%!

    [​IMG]

    Not only has AAPL left most of the market in the dust over the past 15 years, but it is especially the case for the stocks of other smartphone makers. Below we show the relative strength lines of various other smartphone maker stocks versus Apple (AAPL) since the iPhone debut on June 29, 2007. While other names like Blackberry, HTC, Samsung, and LG (the latter three are USD adjusted given they trade on various Asian markets) saw some outperformance versus Apple in the late 2000s, there has been absolutely no competition over the long run. Granted its business is diversified well beyond smartphones, but Alphabet (GOOGL) also hasn't held a candle to Apple even though its relative strength line has been better off than many other smartphone makers.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Apple on iPhone Announcement Days
    Wed, Sep 7, 2022

    Building upon yesterday's Chart of the Day, we took a look into Apple's (AAPL) intraday performance on iPhone announcement days. Today is one of those days, and although we couldn't locate the exact announcement time for each day going back to 2008, the ones that we did find occurred at 1 PM Eastern, which is highlighted in red below.

    As you can see, the stock has tended to sell off during the first hour of the day before slowly trudging higher until 1 PM Eastern. However, once the event begins, the stock has tended to decline in a sell-the-news reaction. That weakness has tended to last most of the afternoon until the final 40 minutes of trading when the stock has tended to bounce back a bit. For the entire day. AAPL's stock has, on average, declined 78 basis points on the day of prior iPhone announcements since 2008.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Apple's "Golden" Moment
    Mon, Jun 10, 2024

    For over a year now, shares of Apple (AAPL) have been stuck between the low $160s and the high $190s as the market impatiently waits for the company to outline its AI strategy. In just the last seven weeks, though, the stock has tested both ends of the range, and ahead of today’s Worldwide Developers Conference, shares of AAPL are modestly pulling back from the top end of the range. In case you missed it, in last week’s Bespoke Report, we discussed the stock’s performance leading up to, during, and after prior conferences including its performance when it rallied in the weeks leading up to the conference. If you missed that on Friday, make sure to check it out.

    As the stock has rallied from its lows in the last several weeks, AAPL is on the verge of completing a golden cross formation, which technical analysts consider a bullish pattern. A golden cross occurs when a stock’s shorter-term moving average (in this the 50-DMA) crosses up through a longer-term moving average (in this case the 200-DMA) as both are rising. Conversely, the opposite of a golden cross is an iron cross which occurs when the short-term moving average crosses down through a longer-term moving average as both are falling.

    As recently as May 1st, AAPL’s 50-DMA was more than 5% below its 200-DMA, but that spread has narrowed quickly in the last six weeks to less than 1% today. The gap is also continuing to narrow fast, and barring an absolute plunge in the stock, it’s likely that the 50-DMA will cross up through the 200-DMA within a week or so.

    [​IMG]

    While golden crosses are a positive technical formation in theory, they don't necessarily play out that way in practice. The table below summarizes the performance of AAPL after each prior golden cross and iron cross in the post-iPod era (since 2001).

    After the four golden crosses, AAPL traded down over the next week three out of four times, and one and three months later, it was only up half the time. Six and twelve months later, AAPL’s stock was higher three out of four times with the lone exception being its performance after the golden cross in May 2008 just ahead of the financial crisis.

    In the post-iPod era, AAPL has experienced five iron crosses with the most recent being in March 2024. Performance following these prior occurrences was similarly weak over the short term, but six and twelve months later, median returns were stronger than after golden crosses.

    What stands out concerning performance following both golden and iron crosses, though, is the fact that the median returns for both golden and iron crosses are weaker than the average for all periods.

    [​IMG]
     
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