Stock Market Today: May 29th - June 2nd, 2023

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, May 31st, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the first trading day of June and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, June the 1st, 2023!

 

Good Thursday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great first trading day of June ahead today!

 

Morning Lineup - 6/1/23 - Like Oil and Water
Thu, Jun 1, 2023

Flat on either side of unchanged. That’s where futures stand this morning heading into what is going to be a very busy day for economic data. Things started off with ADP Private Payrolls at 8:15 which came in much stronger than expected at a level of 278K versus forecasts for an increase of 170K. After that, we got updates on Non-Farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, as well as Initial and Continuing Claims. Non-Farm Productivity was less bad than feared, falling 2.1% versus forecasts for a decline of 2.5%. Unit Labor Costs were a big bright spot as they only increased 4.2% compared to forecasts for an increase of 6.1%. Jobless claims, meanwhile, were slightly better than expected on both an initial and continuing basis.

We’re still not done yet, though. At 9:45 S&P Manufacturing PMI comes out at 9:45 followed by ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 10 AM.

In Europe, stocks are higher this morning following some positive economic data as most manufacturing PMIs were modestly better than expected but still in contraction. Inflation data also came in lower than consensus forecasts with EU CPI unchanged in May versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%. With that, the y/y change fell to a 14-month low of 6.1% which was the lowest reading since February 2022.

In central bank news, ECB vice president Luis de Guindos noted that the central bank is in the ‘final stretch’ of the current rate-hiking cycle and that hikes in increments of 25 bps are ‘the new norm’. In comments earlier, ECB President Lagarde was more hawkish noting that there is no ‘clear evidence’ that underlying inflation has peaked, and added that she can’t say the ECB is satisfied with the inflation outlook.

It was a tale of many equity markets in May with the great (Nasdaq up 5.8%), the good (S&P 500 up 0.3%), the bad (Russell 2000 down 1.1%), and the ugly (Dow down 3.5%). Comparing the performance difference between the ‘great’ and the ‘ugly’ in May, the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by 9.29 percentage points which ranks as the 9th widest margin of outperformance for the Nasdaq relative to the Dow in history.

The eight other months where the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by more than it did in May all occurred in a 35-month span beginning in December 1998 and ending in October 2001. In fact, the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by more than ten percentage points in back-to-back months twice (Dec 1998 to Jan 1999 and Nov 1999 to Dec 2000). If you think the Nasdaq is in a frenzy now, the period from late 1998 to the early 2000s makes it look like breakfast at Wimbledon.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, June 1st, 2023.

 

hey just a quick heads up here guys!

i'm going to be out all day tomorrow as i'm taking a day trip out to boone to visit my uncle who made the trek from florida. it will only be a day long trip, which means i won't be around to update threads, etc. hence why i've just gone ahead and did my weekly thread updating today as opposed to friday (tomorrow) like i usually do

i should be back by late evening tomorrow, but most likely will not be able to update the game threads and have the new weekly market discussion thread up until sometime in the AM on saturday.

hope you guys all had a super nice kick off to june today!

also, if i'm being absolutely frank here, i've done very little in the way of trading this year. literally only put on 1 futures trade at the start of the year and that's been it up to this point lol.

the brutal honest truth here is, while yes i have been super slammed with life outside of the markets more than any other year this year, but also that this year unlike the previous years that we've seen, the market has seen some of the most directionless trading i've seen this far into the year, maybe ever since i've been in the markets.

what i mean by that is, the market hasn't really gone anywhere for a very long time. while that isn't to say money can't be made in choppy, range bound markets. i personally prefer when things are a bit more directional and trending, instead of this 2 steps forward then 2 steps back action, rinse and repeat that we've seen basically all year to this point. to each their own of course.

sure, there have been some nice movers in some of the individual names and sectors this year. no doubt. i'm mostly just referring to the majors (cash spx in particular) which hasn't really moved convincingly in either direction all year.

well, now after today it looks like maybe just maybe mr. market has decided on a direction finally (up?). i'm not so confident in that just quite yet and that it's just off to the races back to ATHs from here lol. i just don't think inflationary pressures have totally abated enough to where the FED wants it yet.

with the debt ceiling now resolved and out of the way, that should probably give some more fuel for the FED to keep on hiking. even if it is just a quarter of a basis point per meeting right now. the question is if the market can continue to digest them and take them in stride as it has for the past few months now. we shall see.

i think unfortunately for me though, this choppy range bound action could remain in place for a bit while longer. until the next major catalyst to get things moving convincingly in either direction. what that is i'm not so sure. ER season is basically done until the start of Q3. so, maybe nothing until the next FED rate decision meeting.

we'll also soon be coming into the traditional "summer doldrums" period which tends to see slower news flows, and just overall stagnant market action overall.

i think until we see another major volatility event, i will probably remain largely MIA and not following the day-to-day too much.

i will continue to update threads and participate in the games, despite my nearly zilch involvement in the markets lately. because i just hate to see this site die out due to lack of posting activity, and if i'm not updating threads then it will appear as if the boards are completely dead. so, i try to update things everyday when i can, despite not really paying much attention to the market these days haha.

hope you guys all have a great summer! and another big time thanks again goes out to you @stock1234 for all you do in keeping these threads active with content everyday. seriously cannot say this enough!!

 

oh btw, almost forgot to mention this one too. and i'll be sure to bring this up again the week before i leave.

but, i will be away on vaca in orlando with my family from june 21st through june 26th. during that 5 days stretch will mean i won't be updating any threads, etc.

again will throw out the reminder as we get closer to the day.

happy start to june to you guys again!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, June the 2nd, 2023!

 

Good Friday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great final trading day of this week ahead today!

 

Morning Lineup - 6/2/23 - They Did it Again!
Fri, Jun 2, 2023

Positive earnings news from the likes of lululemon (LULU) and MongoDB (MDB) plus a positive tone in overseas markets, where many benchmark indices are trading up over 1%, is pushing US equity futures higher ahead of the May jobs report. Reports that China is considering a new round of stimulus measures to support the property market has commodity stocks ripping higher following gains in Thursday’s session as well. The Senate also passed the debt ceiling bill, which will now move to the President's desk. Its quick movement through Congress is a positive, but at this point, you can only rally on the same news so many times.

Heading into this morning’s jobs report, economists were expecting an increase of 195K non-farm payrolls (down from 253K last month), the Unemployment Rate to increase to 3.5% (from 3.4%), average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% (down from 0.5%), and average weekly hours of 34.4 (unchanged). The actual headline number was much stronger than expected (339K), but the Unemployment Rate was also much higher than expected at 3.7% and the highest since last October. Also, average hourly earnings were in line with forecasts and average weekly hours were weaker at 34.4. While the headline number is a bit of a shocker, given the higher Unemployment Rate, it's unlikely to have much impact on FOMC policy forecasts.

This time is different, may be a dangerous phrase, but when it comes to economists’ forecasts surrounding the monthly non-farm payrolls report, this period really is like no other we have ever seen. As shown in the chart below, this morning’s release extended the streak of better-than-expected reports to 14 months. For over a year now, economists have been underestimating the rate of job growth in the US economy, and they still haven’t made the necessary adjustments to their modeling. In football, a coach only gets one halftime to make the necessary adjustments, but economists have had more than ten halftimes, and they still can’t get things quite right. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, Wall Street needs an army of psychiatrists.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, June 2nd, 2023.

(T.B.A. After Today's Market Close.)