Stock Market Today: May 29th - June 2nd, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of May 29th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

Tech Tops, Dow Drops, Bonds Flop As Hawkish Inflation Signals Send Rate-Hike Odds Soaring
FRIDAY, MAY 26, 2023 - 04:01 PM

US economic data surprised to the upside this week - but most notably in terms of inflation signals that showed now signs of trending lower...



Source: Bloomberg

And while core inflation NOWCAST did drop a smidge, it remains a mile away from The Fed's mandated levels - and the drop has stalled...



Source: Bloomberg

That saw the market very hawkishly reprice the entire short-term rate curve with 100% odds of another hike by July and pricing in rates being only 25bps lower by Jan 2024 (from 125bps lower right after the FOMC)...



Source: Bloomberg

But, realistically, the drivers of action this week in markets were debt-ceiling headlines and the AI-bubble's euphoria stage.



The Debt-Ceiling Fear-o-Meter soared to start the week but eased a little today (even though a deal remained absent)...



Source: Bloomberg

And that helped stocks a little into the weekend, but the real driver was NVDA and any mention of AI that sent Nasdaq literally to the moon



0-DTE traders were caught offside in NVDA with massive covering of puts this morning and then buying of calls late on...



Source: SpotGamma

Just one thing to remember, we've seen these massive hoarding orders of chips before (during COVID)...



Source: Bloomberg

And thanks to the knock-on from FOMO-chasing AI, Nasdaq is up over 5.5% from Wednesday's close. The Dow ended the week down 1% with Small Caps and the S&P around unch...



On a side-note, 0-DTE traders were selling the whole day with massive negative-delta flow



Source: SpotGamma

Tech - obviously - massively outperformed this week, with only Consumer Discretionary joining them in the green. All other sectors were red on the week with Staples and Financials lagging....



Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest weekly outperformance of Nasdaq over The Dow since early March (and this is the 5th week that Nasdaq has outpaced The Dow)...



Source: Bloomberg

The last time Nasdaq traded at more than 8x Small Caps did not end well...



Source: Bloomberg

The equal-weighted S&P 500 is now underwater for the year while the cap-weighted S&P is up around 10%...



Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest divergence in at least 30 years for this time of year...



Source: Bloomberg

The 3-month performance spread between the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Equalweight is the widest it has been since December 1999. pic.twitter.com/EJq1vVIBGA

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) May 25, 2023
Regional Banks squeezed up to resistance but faded back later in the week ahead of tonight's deposit data...



1D-VIX surged higher today, once again recoupling with VIX as the debt ceiling doubts remain...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were dumped all week, but today saw some buying come back into the long-end, leaving the short-end (2Y) up 30bps on the week while 30Y yields were up only 3bps...



Source: Bloomberg

And that shift led to the biggest weekly curve (2s10s) flattening since April 2022 to its most inverted since the peak of the SVB crisis...



Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave bond land, there's this - the traditional relationship between higher yields and tech performance (long-duration equities) has completely blown up...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the 3rd straight week (5 of last 6), but ended the week with selling pressure...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the week unchanged, hovering around $26-27,000...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil managed modest gains on the week but NatGas was clubbed like a baby seal as copper and PMs



Source: Bloomberg

Overall, commodities are screaming recession... stocks not so much (or are stocks screaming recession-implied QE?... in which case why aren't commodities doing the same?)...



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as optimism builds of a debt-ceiling deal, remember, remember, the summer of 2011...



Source: Bloomberg

Will we get 'sell the news' next week on a short-term deal?... then a bounce, then a reality check that the short-term extension won't last?

 

Why a Strong First 100 Days Is a Good Thing
Posted on May 25, 2023

“It’s not how you start the season, it’s how you finish.” -Albert Pujols, 11-time All Star professional baseball player

Can you believe it, today is the 100th trading day of the year. In the face of mounting worries about the economy, Fed policy, stubborn inflation, an earnings recession, the manufacturing recession, the war in Ukraine, poor market breadth, signing Joe Burrow to a long-term NFL deal, and more, stocks have had a really strong start to 2023. Ok, that Joe Burrow part is more of a personal worry, but the man needs to be paid and we need to keep him in Bengal stripes, so it is a worry of mine in 2023.

So, what exactly does a good start to a year as of Day 100 mean? Well, the 7.2% gain as of yesterday would be the best start to a year since 2021 with 2019 and 2017 before that. In other words, recently strong starts have meant continued gains for the bulls out there who recall those fun years.

Looking at all the years to gain at least 7% by Day 100 showed that the rest of the year was higher by 9.4% on average and up 88.5% of the time. Anyone up for another 10% from here? Unless you are a permabear, I bet most readers would be ok with that. Lastly, the full year has never closed the year lower when up more than 7% on Day 100. Yes, 1987 is in here, so we know that stocks can indeed go lower from here, but to have a red year in 2023 would truly be rare.



That isn’t the only good news though. In fact, here are two more recent occurrences that should bode well for continued strong returns from stocks this year.

First up, the S&P 500 hasn’t made a new 52-week low since the mid-October lows last year. That is more than seven months without a new low and history would say that a move right back beneath those October lows would be quite rare. As you can see from the chart below, usually this is a sign that ‘the lows’ indeed are in and in many cases strong continued gains were possible.



Here are all the instances of a new 52-week low and then seven months in a row without a new low. A year later? Stocks were up 12.6% on average and higher 86.4% of the time. Looking at things over the past 50 years and only twice (out of 14 times) did stocks go on to make new lows after seven months without a new 52-week low. Those were in 2002 (and the vicious three-year bubble bursting bear market) and then right ahead of a 100-year pandemic. Let’s hope now isn’t like those two and we don’t think it is. The other 12 times the lows were indeed in place. We remain in the camp that the lows from October are it and the bear market ended then. We’ve been saying that since late last year and many more are coming around to this opinion now. This study does little to change our views here.



Lastly, we’ve seen strong leadership from large cap technology this year, after a horrible year last year it should be noted. This is the lifeblood of bull markets, changing leadership and we have seen it this year. Turning to the NASDAQ-100, it recently made a new 52-week high for the first time since before Thanksgiving in 2021 …. Nearly 18 full months! As bad as that was, the good news is when it goes at least six months without a new 52-week high and finally makes one (like last week), the future returns can be quite strong. As we show below, the NASDAQ-100 was higher a year later 14 out of 14 times and up 16.8% on average along the way. We don’t expect this to be 14 out of 15 this time next year is all I will say.



With all of that, I must ask you, why are you even reading this right now? We are right before a holiday weekend and I hope you can get a break, eat some good food, and spend time with family and friends this Memorial Day weekend. The stock market is having a nice year, bonds are doing ok, or at least way better than last year, the economy is firming, the Fed is likely done hiking, and the Bengals are inching closer to signing Joey B. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Market Weaker After Memorial Day Recent Years

The week after Memorial Day performed quite well 1971-95. DJIA & S&P up 68% of the time, averaging 0.8% – DJIA up 12 in a row 1984-95. NAS was up 72% of the time, average 0.6%, up 10 straight 1986-95. Since 1979 R2K was up 88.2% of the time, average 0.9%, up 13 straight 1983-95.

Starting in 1996 the week after Memorial Day performance diminished. DJIA was up only 40.7% of times, average loss 0.02%, down 9 of last 13. S&P, NAS & R2K all gained ground less than 56% of the time, down 7 of last 13. Huge gains during the week in 2000 do skew the averages.

2023 Stock Trader’s Almanac page 100 tracks behavior before & after holidays since 1980. Days after Memorial Day show positivity. But weakness has increased the last 22-years the 3 days after Memorial Day. Day after Memorial Day DJIA & NAS down 6 of last 8, S&P down 7 of last 8.



Tech In Orbit
Fri, May 26, 2023

The S&P 500 has been closing in on new 52-week highs as the index gains another 1.3% headed into the long weekend. Although the index has been moving higher, looking at relative strength lines across the S&P's eleven sectors, it would be hard to tell. Indicating what has broadly been mediocre breadth at best, the only two sectors with relative strength lines that are currently moving higher are Tech and Communication Services. The former has made a vertical move higher over the past few days in the wake of the surge in NVIDIA (NVDA), while the climb in Communication Services has been more steady. As for the other sectors, relative strength lines have been falling off a cliff for everything except Consumer Discretionary, which has been flat.



Again, Tech has led the way higher with a sharp move this week. The sector is now extremely overbought, trading 3.23 standard deviations above its 50-DMA; the fifth most overbought reading on record. Since 1990, there have only been a handful of times in which the S&P 500 Tech sector has traded at least 3 standard deviations overbought, with the most recent being roughly six years ago. But to find the last time the sector was as extended as it is today, you'd have to go all the way back to early 2004!



Government Debt Has Exploded Higher. Should We Worry?
Posted on May 24, 2023

The fight over the debt ceiling in Washington D.C. has focused attention on the size of U.S. government debt. And it’s not pretty to look at. From the end of 2019 through the end of 2022, government debt has increased by a whopping 35% to $31.4 trillion. That translates to a dollar increase of $8.2 trillion!



The debt-to-GDP ratio jumped from 108% before the pandemic to 120% at the end of 2022. The only solace is that it’s fallen from 135% in the second quarter of 2020 – primarily because GDP increased by $4.4 trillion since then. Note that the denominator in the ratio is “nominal” GDP, i.e. it’s not adjusted for inflation. Nominal GDP has been increasing rapidly over the past two years thanks to inflation, rising 12% in 2021 and 7% in 2022. So, one way in which debt-to-GDP can fall is with higher inflation.



The problem with inflation is that the Federal Reserve is likely to react aggressively to bring it down, which is what happened last year. They raised benchmark interest rates from near 0% to above 5% over the past 14 months to clamp down on the highest inflation in 40+ years.

Higher interest costs for the government were a direct consequence of this. Interest payments on the federal debt have risen by $359 billion since the end of the pandemic through the first quarter of 2023.



But here’s the good news …
One thing that is weird about the debt-to-GDP ratio is that you’re comparing the “stock” of outstanding debt to GDP, which is a “flow”, i.e. the total dollar value of all finished goods and services produced within the country over a quarter.

It’s akin to looking at your mortgage balance as a percent of your monthly or quarterly income. A better measure of financial stress, or lack thereof, is mortgage debt service costs as a percent of income.

We can do the same thing for the government, in which case “income” is tax receipts.

As I noted above, debt-to-GDP fell over the last couple of years because nominal GDP grew. The other side of higher nominal GDP is that tax receipts for the government have also surged. Tax receipts have risen from about $2.2 trillion at the end of 2019 to $3.2 trillion by the end of 2022, an increase of $1 trillion.



This is the other side of government spending that kept the economy afloat in 2020-2021. Stimulus checks, PPP loans, and expanded unemployment benefits ensured that consumer spending held strong – the downside was higher inflation, as the pandemic shut down a lot of supply even as demand recovered immediately. Nevertheless, one person’s spending is another person’s income, and income is taxed.

The other reason tax receipts surged, especially in 2021, was an increase in capital gains receipts thanks to rising asset prices. This was less so in 2022. However, 4.8 million more people gained jobs in 2022, which helped push tax receipts higher.

The chart below shows government interest costs as a percent of tax receipts, and right now it’s just under 27%. It’s gone almost straight up over the last few quarters but remains slightly below where it was in 2019, which was right along the historical average of 27.3%.



Things don’t look too concerning when you look at the chart above. Ultimately, if the economy is growing, the debt-to-GDP ratio should remain stable (or fall), and tax receipts will continue to rise.
Recession is a real concern because that’s when tax receipts fall amid a rise in unemployment. This is why the ratio between interest costs and tax receipts jumped to over 50% in the early-to-mid 1980’s. Fed Chair Paul Volcker had raised interest rates sharply to combat high inflation, which resulted in:

• Higher interest costs on the federal debt
• A recession, which meant there were fewer tax receipts as spending and employment fell

Right now, we don’t believe we’re in a similar situation, and our base case is that the U.S. can avoid a recession this year.

Two More Bullish Pieces of Evidence
Posted on May 23, 2023

“No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot.” -Mark Twain

We been pointing out signs of an early cycle revival in the economy and many bullish signals that indeed suggest the upward trend in stocks since October is alive and well. Well, here’s a blog on two more things that recently triggered and both could be nice signs for both the economy and stocks going forward.

First up, this past earnings season was really good relative to expectations. According to Factset, about 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter earnings and a very impressive 78% beat expectations. Yes, earnings are set to come in down 2.2% versus the first quarter last year, but this is much better than the 6.6% drop that was expected this time seven weeks ago. Also, all 11 sectors came in better than expected, with tech (the largest component) really impressing. Lastly, the average company beat earnings by 6.5%, one of the best beats in years, while the average small cap stock beat by an even wider margin.

Thanks to data from our friends at Ned Davis Research, MSCI U.S. trailing 12-month earnings have officially bottomed and are now heading higher. Given nearly 80% issued increased revisions (the left side of the chart below), this makes sense that this would stop going down and start going up. All in all, this is a very strong signal that all the worries about the impending recession have been greatly exaggerated and corporate America likely sees better times coming.



The other thing that no one is pointing out is the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average has officially turned higher. This is a longer-term trendline and it tends to catch significant trends. Right now, it’s rebounding off a bottom and that is another feather in the cap for bulls.

Some previous times the 200-day turned higher after trending lower for an extended period were July 2016, August 2009, June 2003, and March 1991. For those who remember their stock market history, all of those times indeed took place after significant lows were already formed (in other words, no new lows took place) and continued strong gains occurred. I eyeballed 10 times this turned higher and all 10 were nice times to own stocks.



Our friends at Bespoke looked at this and they found 20 times the 200-day moving average made a new 52-week low and then moved at least 1% off that level within three months, so a clear signal that the lower trend in stocks had ended. Sure enough, going back to 1928, they found the S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 out of 20 times, with a solid average gain of 18.2%. 20 out of 20!

One thing I’ve seen the past few months though is many of the perma-bears have really dug their heels in, likely costing many investors a good deal of gains and future gains. Take another look at the Mark Twain quote at the beginning. We’ve been sharing a lot of evidenced-based investment data this year showing better times could be coming and fortunately, it has been taking place for investors. The vast majority of what we see continues to look quite positive and we expect more solid gains from stocks the rest of this year, with an economy that will avoid a recession and surprise to the upside.

Copper Under the Weather
Mon, May 22, 2023

Earlier Monday in our Morning Lineup post, we highlighted the recent short-term weakness in gold just days after it hit all-time highs. While the declines are disheartening for gold bulls, they can take comfort in the fact that at least gold has been doing better than copper.

Copper prices rallied in the second half of 2022, but that rally stalled out in early January at just over $4.30 per pound, below its highs from last May. Since then, prices have experienced little in the way of positive momentum, falling below both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA. Copper is now down over 15% from its YTD high, and it's testing the bottom of its longer-term uptrend channel.



On a five-year basis, you can see again how copper prices are currently testing a long-term uptrend after carving out a downtrend that has been shorter-term in length.



A look at the relative strength of copper is where the relationship between the two commodities really gets interesting. From May 2018 through May 2020, copper prices consistently underperformed gold, and this was a period that included what was a US manufacturing slowdown ahead of what became a full-blown economic shutdown during COVID. As governments and central banks flooded the economy with stimulus, the roles of copper and gold completely reversed, and in the span of under a year erased two years of underperformance. Then, from late February 2021 through June 2022, the two commodities performed roughly in line with each other as there was little movement in the relative strength of the two commodities.

In the first half of 2022 as the FOMC started ratcheting up the rate hikes, copper started to lose ground versus gold, and just in the last few weeks, copper’s relative strength has dropped to its lowest level since the start of 2021! If copper’s performance is a sign of the strength or weakness in the global economy, someone better start heating up the chicken soup.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2022-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 5.26.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 5.26.23-

 

​

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for May 26th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/28/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (5/29-6/2) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Tuesday (5/30) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

​

Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 5.29.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MEMORIAL DAY.)

Monday 5.29.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MEMORIAL DAY.)

Tuesday 5.30.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 5.30.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 5.31.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 5.31.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 6.1.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 6.1.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 6.2.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 6.2.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($CRWD $CRM $AI $ZS $DG $AVGO $LULU $OKTA $AAP $M $BNR $MDB $CHPT $UHAL $SKY $TNP $HPE $CHWY $HPQ $ESLT $S $CPRI $ALAR $MDWD $TRMR $CD $CAE $BOX $JWN $ASAN $BLI $DELL $VEEV $AMBA $PSTG $DOOO $GLNG $FIVE $DCI $NTAP $IOT $HRL $RSVR $SPWH $COO $NOAH $YY $ESTC $PD)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning May 29th, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

REMINDER: U.S. MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY, MAY 29TH, 2023 IN OBSERVANCE OF MEMORIAL DAY.

 

so sorry late getting to this! was super slammed today trying to get everything done before the long 3-day weekend.

looks like was just a brief SSL glitch earlier that auto corrected itself. glad to hear all is well again.

hope you have an amazing holiday weekend @stock1234 and ty again as always for all your contributions towards these threads everyday. can't say this enough!

will catch up with you guys on tuesday.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, May the 30th, 2023!

 

Good Tuesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading week ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 5/30/23 - More of the Same
Tue, May 30, 2023

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden have reached an agreement on the debt ceiling that they can get through the House and Senate and onto the President's desk within the June 5th deadline. Futures are higher this morning in reaction, but the continued run in tech stocks on the back of NVIDIA's (NVDA) monster gains last week has the Nasdaq leading the way. NVDA is up about 4% in the pre-market putting it on pace to be the first semiconductor company to reach the trillion dollar valuation threshold. Dow futures are actually modestly lower as anything not tech-related continues to trade heavily.

With Monday being a holiday, we're kicking off the week with a relatively large data slate this morning as Case Shiller housing data will be released at 9 AM, followed by Consumer Confidence at 10 AM, and the Dallas Fed report at 10:30. The rest of the week will also be busy capped off with the jobs report on Friday.

This morning's trading is an exact continuation of last week which was an exact continuation of the ‘haves and have nots’ trade that’s been in place all year as the sectors which have been leading this year continued to lead while everything else lagged. The only three sectors that traded higher last week – Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary – are also the only three sectors that are up more than 1% on the week (they’re all up over 15%), and the only three sectors trading above their 50-day moving average (DMA). Besides being above their 50-DMAs, all three are also trading in overbought territory with the Technology sector trading at its most overbought levels since 2004!

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, May 30th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of May and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, May the 31st, 2023!

 

Good Wednesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great final trading day of May ahead today!

 

Morning Lineup - 5/31/23 - Debt Deal Moves to the House
Wed, May 31, 2023

After opening right near their highs of the day and reversing lower throughout the trading day yesterday, equity futures are staring at a weak open this morning. Treasury yields are lower along with crude oil even as the debt ceiling deal moved out of Committee and is set for a full vote. Investors will be watching the Chicago PMI and JOLTS reports later this morning, but overnight, we had some weak economic data out of China and lower-than-expected inflation data out of Germany where the y/y increase in CPI dropped to 6.1% which was actually the lowest reading since last March. Some of these tech stocks have had a huge run in the last several days/weeks, so a pause should surprise no one.

The last 12 months haven’t been the best of times for crude oil, and the last two days have been no different. After a decline of nearly 4.5% to kick off the week yesterday, WTI is trading down over 2.5% this morning putting it within $1 of a 52-week low. A year ago, prices were coming off a peak of just over $130 per barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine but were still firmly in triple-digit territory. Bulls made another attempt to run crude back near the March 2022 high but came up short, and things only got worse from there. Since then, it’s been a steady march lower, and the price of a barrel of crude has nearly been cut in half.

For crude oil bulls, the last two months specifically have been a major disappointment especially when you consider the fact that China’s reopening was supposed to be a major catalyst. First, on 4/2, OPEC announced a surprise production cut. While the news caused a brief spike in prices, the rally stalled out right at the 200-day moving average (DMA) and prices were back at 52-week lows in a month. Then last week, a Saudi minister publicly noted that oil speculators who were betting against crude oil should ‘watch out’. In a bull market, those comments would have caused a buying frenzy, but in a bear market, jawboning has a very short half-life, and it wasn’t even enough to get WTI back above its 50-day moving average.



With crude failing its attempt to break above the 200-DMA back in April, the extended streak of closes below the 200-DMA has extended further. At 190 trading days through today, the current streak is the longest since the 427 trading day streak ending in April 2016. It would take nearly another year to challenge that streak, but the current streak already ranks as the fifth longest since 1984. Not only that but if the current streak lasts another month, it will move into third place overall.