This is a poll for the week of 8/14-8/18, 2017 Expires Monday at the opening bell on: 8/14/17 Don't forget to click the "Vote Now" button! How does TSMF think the S&P500 will close the week? Starting point: **Starting point will be edited into this post after Friday close** *Link to Previous Weekly Poll Thread* Don't forget to post your vote to be listed in the 2017 Click the button below to view the 2017 Poll Member Voting Record Leaderboard- Results from the last poll (8/7-8/11) 2,476.83 2,441.32 -1.43% TSMF Voted No weekly poll tally for TSMF this week. Credit goes to the DOWN votes! Post your Vote! Notes/Guidelines: 1) For purpose of the spreadsheet record flat is currently based on +/-0.50% or less. Of course, everyone can define flat any way they choose. 2) Up, Flat, or Down must be clearly specified in a post in order to be listed in the spreadsheet, otherwise it'll be assumed that post was not intended to be a part of the official record. 3) Because of the poll expiration at Sunday midnight GMT time zone, (Sunday 4pm PST / 7pm EST) I manually close the poll around 9pm - midnight in PST, or before I go to bed. You may notice the poll says to expire on Monday, but it does not. It will expire on Sunday the date that is in this post.4 pm PST / 7pm EST is just a bit too early and I want to give as much possible time for everyone to get a chance to vote. 4) You may notice that some members have monthly and quarterly statistics in the spreadsheet. I add these based on at the start of the month or quarter taking into account past consistent voter-ship. 5) It's OK to post your vote if you missed the deadline after the poll has expired and if the market has not really moved that much or especially if your late vote is opposite or flat of the S&P futures ATM. It will be up to my discretion and obviously, the more active voters will be given more leeway. 6) Starting and ending points based on official close of the market Friday. 7) The primary goal of this game is to track our performance. You can consider it a contest or as a personal critiquing tool to better ones performance.
Post #1 Updated! Scores Graded! Click the button below to view the full 2017 Poll Member Voting Record- *Link to Previous Weekly Poll Thread* No weekly poll tally for TSMF this week. Credit goes to the DOWN votes! Special shout outs go out to our 2 posted DOWN voters for this week!- @Baggi @bigbear0083 Great calls in here you 2! Special commendation continues to go out to our current weekly poll consecutive leader with 5 in a row!- @Baggi Awesome job Baggi! And lastly a special commendation goes out to our current overall weekly poll percentage leader for the year with an 60.00% voting accuracy thus far in 2017- @Timbo Good work Timbo! Here is a look at the weekly poll members voting record leaderboard as of week ending 8.11.17- @bigbear0083 is our current leader with 17 points this quarter! Great job Cy! Click the button below to view the complete 2017 Poll Member Voting Record Leaderboard- Whelp, that is a wrap from me this week ... and I hope you all have an awesome weekend ahead! Have fun and be safe! Cheers y'alls! ...and please do not forget to click in your vote on the poll & post your vote before the opening bell on Monday!!!
Going with UP as you can see, new buyers are licking their chops wanting in. Sellers are taking profits and shares are quickly being bought up. 2,750 baby..
DOWN The weak attempt at a bounce on Friday leads me to believe that 2440 and the upper channel will fail this week. after that we could range between 2409 and 2440 while the markets figure out what they want next. It's amazing to me to see how much technical damage would need to be done to the chart to just get a 10% correction.
I'm going with down this next week also. Of course, because I'm pretty much a perma bear. Glad I changed my vote at the last minute last week! But with all the tension right now, combined with the long term FIB high of 2487 having been reached (And this goes back to 2009), plus the weak bounce back on Friday, I think we see a pretty solid down week. I've heard some bears saying, like steven above, that they expect some chop before more down. I don't know much, so take this with a grain of salt, but I don't think we can go down much if we have chop. There needs to be a very large move down to get this ball rolling. Otherwise, the BTFD buyers will come back in and we'll be right back to our normal bull market. Guess we shall see soon enough.
DOWN again this week for me as well... so i know i've been harping all last week on that "outside reversal day" that we saw on tuesday, but i see we also put in an "outside week" ... and don't look now folks, but it's possible we could be putting in an "outside month" as well! still a bit too early on that one though. so what is this said "outside reversal" you may ask? it's just basically when you have price exceeding the prior day/week high (so in this case we had the SPX make a new high last week) and then close the day/week below the prior day/week low. also known as a key reversal. these can be pretty powerful, especially after a long up move, and even more so after such a looooong bull run that we've seen over the past 8 years now. tuesday's outside/key reversal was really ominous looking. you basically had what the shadowtrader's like to call a "look above and fail". a huge topping tail (almost like a shooting star) then closing near the lows. there was also some excess on the highs if you're looking at the market profile of the /ES futures. we made a new ATH in the RTH which really put the icing on the cake. that was really the hallmark of at least some kind of short-term market top IMHO. it remains to be seen if this is going to be a top for the summer, or a top for the year, or ... dare i say it ... a top for the bull market? not so sure about the latter on that one, but more so the former. we shall see! nonetheless, this should present some really nice trading opportunities in the weeks to come! volatility is a traders dream so hopefully that is here to say for a while at least. btw, i just want to say great stuff @Steven and @Baggi! loving the input there! i also agree w/ @Baggi in that if we're really going to see this pullback turn into a "correction" i'm not sure if "chopping around" will do it. there needs to be a large down move ... so far the selloff has been very much on the orderly scale imho NEED. MOAR. PANIC. thus, we haven't seen any panic out there as of yet. the SPX is only -2% off the ATH right now ... can we at least do -5%? but really -10% or greater would be pretty sweet. just sayin'
Market down For me, looking for things to Long apart from FL nothing sticks out, must be the same for many people - not very scientific.
Seriously doubt we see the 5 and 10% correction that everyone wants, the numbers just don't warrant it. BUY THE DIPS BOYS....
I still feel we are headed down, LL's/LH's, strong sell volume weak buy volume. I made a mistake with my analysis last week by not realizing we where completely outside the BB's and you almost always get a bounce there.
It all comes down to tomorrow, lads! What will it be? Will we finally have some downside follow through, or will it be BTFD?! Again? Tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel.
