Stock Market Today: September 27th - October 1st, 2021

September 2020 vs 2021
Tue, Sep 28, 2021

September 2nd of last year marked a notable turning point for the US equity market. The S&P 500 put in a short-term peak on that date and it also marked the beginning of what we dubbed "The Big Shift". That shift was marked by the outperformance of value over growth and solid breadth with the equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the market-cap weighted index. Fast forward one year, and yet again the close on September 2nd has marked the recent high for the S&P 500 as shown below. In addition to the highs coming on the same day, some of the intra-month patterns are also similar including a small rally in the middle of the month. With that said, the declines last year were more severe, especially at the start of the month, and this year has not seen a consistent rally into month's end as was the case in 2020.



As previously mentioned, one of the most notable changes of the Big Shift last September 2nd was a reversal of a long-term trend of growth's outperformance. Growth's outperformance versus value peaked on September 2nd last year, and it also peaked in early September this year as well. Below is a chart showing the relative strength of growth versus value since the COVID Crash low for the broad market last March 23rd. A rising line means growth is outperforming, while a falling line means value is outperforming. The months of September 2020 and September 2021 (through 9/28) are highlighted in red. As you can see, growth peaked versus value at the beginning of September of both 2020 and 2021 after a period of sharp outperformance in the months prior. September 2020 was only the start of value's outperformance, which continued up until this spring when growth began to outperform again. It remains to be seen if the same "value" trade will now continue in the months ahead like it did last year, but it's certainly interesting how similar the growth/value trade has been this September versus last September.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Wednesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start! Here is a quick check on the futures as we are about 3 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, September the 29th, 2021!

 

looks like spy may have double topped at the HOD...coming off pretty aggressively now heading into these final 15 min. until cash close.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, September 29th, 2021.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of September and Q3 and a fresh start! Here is a quick check on the futures as we are about 3 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this month end trade Thursday, September the 30th, 2021!

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, September 30th, 2021.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the first trading day of October and of Q4 and a fresh start! Here is a quick check on the futures as we are about 2 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this month end trade Friday, October the 1st, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 10/1/21 - Merck Friday
Fri, Oct 1, 2021

It wasn't looking like a positive start to October earlier this morning as futures were significantly lower, but beginning at 6 AM we started to see a turnaround following positive trial results from Merck (MRK) regarding its oral anti-viral COVID treatment. The thought of being able to simply pop a pill to significantly reduce the chances of an adverse reaction to COVID would be a big step in returning back to normal.

Given the volatility and sell-offs we've seen during the regular trading session this week, there's still a real possibility that these early gains don't hold, but at least this morning we've seen futures strengthening from low levels throughout the morning rather than the opposite of weakness from higher levels.

As far as closing acts go for a quarter, Q3's exit was one to forget. Over the last week of the month, the S&P 500 dropped 3.18% for its worst final week of September since 2003 when it dropped by a similar amount. In the S&P's history, there have been thirteen prior years where the index dropped more than 2.5% in the final week of September, and we have highlighted each of those years below.

Looking ahead to today and the first week of October, weak finishes to September have historically been followed by a weak first day of October. In the thirteen prior years shown, the S&P 500 dropped by an average of 0.19% (median: -0.60%) on the first trading day of October with positive returns just under a third of the time. Based on the turnaround we have seen in futures this morning, we may be on pace to buck that trend today.

While the first trading day of the month has been weak, the first week of October has been positive with an average gain of 0.30% (median: 0.93%) and positive returns just over two-thirds of the time. Relative to the long-term average, returns on the first trading day of October have been below average while performance in the first week of October has been pretty much right in line with the historical average of all first weeks of October.