Stock Market Today: September 20th - 24th, 2021

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of September 20th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:



Major Futures Markets on Friday:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Earnings: Lennar

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

• Tuesday

Earnings: FedEx, Adobe, AutoZone, Cracker Barrel, Aurora Cannabis, Stitch Fix

FOMC begins 2-day meeting

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

8:30 a.m. Current account

• Wednesday

Earnings: General Mills, KB Home, Blackberry, Steecase

10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

2:00 p.m. Federal Reserve statement

2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

• Thursday

Earnings: Nike, Costco, Vail Resorts, Trip.com, Darden Restaurants, Accenture, Rite Aid, Scholastic

8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims

9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m. Services PMI

10:00 a.m. Leading indicators

• Friday

Earnings: Carnival

8:45 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

10:00 a.m. New home sales

10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman at Fed Listens event

10:00 a.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George

 

Stocks Stumble For 2nd Straight Week Amid Debt Ceiling Doubts, FOMC Fears, & Gamma Unclench
The usual avalanche of debt-ceiling fearmongering has begun (which of course will continue until 1 second before the deadline when an agreement will suddenly be found) and that along with anxiety ahead of next week's FOMC and today's gamma unclenching from quad witch expirations did not help dip-buyers save stocks for the week.

Nasdaq was the week's biggest loser and a late-day buying spree into the OpEx pushed Small Caps into the green barely for the week...





Source: Bloomberg

But anxiety remains as Debt Ceiling doubts have created quite the kink in the bills curve...



Source: Bloomberg

And pushed the anxiety proxy to cycle highs...



Source: Bloomberg

Analysts at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, suggested the dangers for investors are significant.

"Republican intransigence over increasing the debt limit and Democratic overconfidence that they will be able to pressure Republicans into doing so is creating unusually high risks of the U.S. crossing into a technical default on its debt sometime in late October," they wrote in a note on Thursday.

"Congress will at some point increase the debt ceiling, but it may require the pressure of a technical default and market sell-off to get there," the Eurasia Group team also said.

"Based on our analysis of the incentive structure of both sides at this time, we see that risk at 20%."

In fact, the market is finally starting to reflect the chance of a technical default - albeit still small - as short-term USA default risk spiked dramatically this week (NOTE in Oct 2015, USA 1Y CDS spiked to 40bps)...



Source: Bloomberg

For now, it seems everyone is just full of Fed liquidity-based optimism...


The S&P 500 fell back below its 50DMA after an initial bounce (something we haven't seen recently on these bounces as we note that ~30% of SPX gamma expired at today's open and 60% of SPY, 35% of QQQ, and a very large set of stock options expired on the close)...



The Dow is back at/below its 100DMA and Small Caps are hovering around their 50DMA.

VIX spiked back above 20 as hedgers piled in ahead of next week's FOMC...



Both Defensives and Cyclicals were lower this week - modest rotation midweek, but by the close, pretty systemic selling...



Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar surged further today, extending the week's gains to erase all losses from Jay Powell's Jackson Hole speech...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all higher on the week, led by the belly (5Y +6bps, 30Y +0.5bps)...



Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields spiked further to a key resistance level this week...



Source: Bloomberg

And 10Y Yields broke back above their 200DMA...



Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields spiked up to their 50DMA today and found resistance...



Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were broadly higher on the week with Bitcoin and Ethereum up around 5%. Litecoin ended the week up 4.5% after the Walmart partnership fake news spiked it 35% on Monday...



Source: Bloomberg

Big gains in the dollar this week weighed on 'some' commodities with copper and PMs down but the energy complex rallied with crude up significantly...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold fell back below $1800...



Silver was clubbed like a baby seal back below $23...



WTI rallied back above $72 this week...



And Nattie exploded higher recently, only to tumble today...



Finally, amid all that vol in commodity-land, CPI this week, and today's UMich inflation expectations, Stagflation remains the big worry...



Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell!

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2021-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

S&P 500 down 25 of 31 during week after September quarterly options expiration, average loss 0.94%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September quarterly options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 31 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.

Full stats are in the above sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.03%, S&P 500 –0.94%, NASDAQ –0.88% and a sizable –1.50% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.

Mid-Pack Performance for Post-Election Year Octobers

October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens.

Post-election year October’s are neither great nor bad since 1953, ranking mid-pack across DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 with gains averaging from 0.9% (DJIA & Russell 1000) to 1.4% (NASDAQ). DJIA has the best historical odds for gains having advanced in 12 of the last 17 post-election year Octobers. Despite the best average gain, NASDAQ actually has the worst record, declining in 6 of the last 12 post-election year Octobers. A 12.8% gain in 2001 boosts its average. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.


Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover

Happy Jewish New Year 5782! May it be a sweet year for you all! As we informed you early this month the market tends to exhibit weakness during the Jewish High Holy days from Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur. Perhaps it is the market’s annual repentance for its own sins that drives the market lower over the years during the ten days of repentance or the days of awe as they are often referred. This trade ends tomorrow on Yom Kippur, September 16, but as of today’s close DJIA is down about 0.8% from the close on Rosh Hashanah.

We attribute this perennial pullback to the fact that market liquidity drops as many market participants step away from the market and likely square positions ahead of these ten days. These days of awe also land during the seasonally weak end of Q3/beginning of Q4 period as fund managers restructure portfolios and prepare for the October 31 mutual fund deadline. This has made September the worst month of the year and contributed to the phenomenon of Octoberphobia.

But there is a flipside to this trade. Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover. This has an even greater accuracy ratio than Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur up 72% of the time with average gains of 7%. And as I am sure our followers will realize this trade get a big boost from seasonal market strength during Q4 and Q1 and of course the Best Six Months of the Year November-April.


B.I.G. Tips - Large Drops in Bullish Sentiment
Thu, Sep 16, 2021

The S&P 500 is down under 2% from its record closing high on September 2nd and has been hovering right above its 50-DMA this week. While neither of those may sound dramatic, it seems to have sent shivers down the spines of individual investors given the results of this week's sentiment survey from AAII. Bullish sentiment has made a turn lower since its high of 43.4% two weeks ago, but this week, the reading plummeted down to 22.4%. That is the lowest level in bullish sentiment since the last week of July 2020 and is in the bottom 5% of readings since the start of the survey in 1987. The 16.5 percentage point drop is even more notable ranking in the 1.9th percentile of all week over week moves. It was the largest decline since August 2019 when bullish sentiment dropped 16.78 percentage points in a single week.





Given that massive decline in bullish sentiment, bearish sentiment obviously picked up substantially. The percentage of respondents reporting as bearish spiked 12.1 percentage points to 39.3%. That is the highest reading on pessimism since early October of last year, and it was the largest one-week uptick in bearish sentiment since the 24.14 percentage point spike in August 2019.



As a result of those big inverse moves in bulls and bears, the spread between the two crashed back into negative territory meaning bears now outnumber bulls for the first time since the week of August 19th. While it has not been too long since bears outnumbered bulls, the degree to which that is the case is significant. The last time that the bull-bear spread was as negative as it is now was in August 2019.



That is not to say all the losses to bullish sentiment went to the bearish camp. Neutral sentiment rose for a second week in a row adding over 15 percentage points in that time. Currently, 38.3% of respondents are neutral. That is an elevated reading but only the highest since the end of July.



Insurance Suddenly a Concern For Small Businesses
Tue, Sep 14, 2021

In addition to the various indices regarding small business conditions, the NFIB also surveys firms on what they see as their most pressing issue. In August, by far the most common issue among respondents was labor-related. A record 28% reported quality of labor as the biggest issue; up 2 percentage points versus July. Another 8% reported cost of labor as their biggest issue which was slightly lower than July. On a combined basis, the 36% reporting either cost or quality of labor as their biggest issue was the joint highest reading on record; tying August and November 2019.





Especially over the past several election cycles, the results of the NFIB survey have tended to be impacted by politics. For example, over the past few presidencies, when a Republican is in office there has been a lower percentage of respondents reporting either taxes or government red tap as their biggest issue and vice versa when a Democrat is in office. That combined reading has now completely reversed the uptick following the election of President Biden as labor concerns have increasingly come into focus.



While government-related problems are still the second biggest concern(s) on a combined basis, there have been some other notable moves this month. The percentage of respondents reporting inflation as their biggest issue rose back up to the pandemic high of 13% this month. The Great Recession was the only other period that has seen as elevated a share of respondents seeing price increases as their biggest issue. Additionally, that excludes those reporting cost of labor as an issue.



As for what the rise in Inflation as a problem may have borrowed from, one of the most notable has been competition from big business. The reading has seen a gradual decline since the end of 2019, and now at only 5%, it is tied with several months between September 2009 and September 2013 for the lowest reading on record.



Why Evergrande Isn’t The Next Lehman

Friday, September 17, 2021

Chinese property developer Evergrande’s liquidity crisis has sparked fear and massive selling in Chinese property stocks over the past several weeks. The big question is could this be the first domino to fall, sparking a systemic risk scenario, similar to when Lehman Brothers went under 13 years ago this week? The good news is we don’t think so, but we’ll get to that later.

With more than $300 billion in liabilities and only $15 billion in cash on hand, Evergrande is currently the world’s most indebted real estate developer. Worries are mounting that starting next week it won’t be able to pay $84 billion of interest due (according to Bloomberg), along with potentially missing a principal payment on at least one of its loans.

With Evergrande’s share price down more than 80% this year, investors are clearly voting with their pocketbooks, while the chart below shows the pressure its dollar bonds have been under as well, at deeply distressed levels to the tune of 28 cents on the dollar recently.



Multiple downgrades have happened the past two weeks, and some rating agencies are noting that an outright default is probable. Should this happen, what could the fallout be? With 1,300 real estate projects in 280 cities in China, could China’s communist government intervene to avoid a messy default? So far that answer has been a resounding no, with the company instead looking to banks and other creditors to help the impact of a default.

The bad news keeps coming, as yesterday, Evergrande suspended trading of it’s onshore corporate bonds, after yet another downgrade, taking it one step closer to restructuring or default. So is Evergrande China’s version of Lehman Brothers? Here are three reasons we don’t think so.

• First, the dollar bonds will likely get restructured, but most of the debt is in global mutual funds, ETFs, and some Chinese companies and not banks or other important financial institutions. Remember, Lehman Brothers was held on nearly all other financial institution’s books, so not nearly as many institutions will be impacted by this versus Lehman.
• Secondly, we think the odds do favor the Chinese communist government will get involved should there be a default. They are holding out as of now, but the fallout could be too great for them to avoid intervening.
• Finally, Evergrande has tangible assets that can be sold off to settle financial obligations. Their assets aren’t great and creditors know that the company is in financial trouble , so the value of its assets aren’t likely worth as much as they think but it will still help settle some debts. Remember, Lehman didn’t have hard assets it could sell off whereas Evergrande does.

“Although the impact from Evergrande’s liquidity crisis is enormous, the good news is the fallout hasn’t started to spillover to other markets,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Short-term funding markets are acting just fine in China thus far; remember, it was the money markets in the U.S. that first started to show cracks in the system in early 2008, well before the wheels fell off.”

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, China’s money markets aren’t showing any signs of systemic risk. These tend to be the canary in the coal mine, and the fallout appears to be fairly contained as of now.

LPL Research downgraded our view on emerging markets to negative from neutral last month, due to concerns over China’s regulatory crackdowns and heightened political risk. Now with Evergrande’s liquidity crisis in the mix, we continue to recommend an underweight to emerging markets in portfolios.

This is a very fluid situation and one that could clearly change on a dime. Although the Chinese communist government has avoided helping Evergrande so far, we think the odds do favor some type of eventual bailout to limit the ripple effect from a potential default. We will continue to watch the action in the short-term lending markets for clues if this is spiraling into something larger.

Retail Sales Surprise To The Upside
Economic Blog

Thursday, September 16, 2021

U.S. consumers shocked economists in August with their willingness to spend in the face of recent jitters over the economic outlook.

This morning, the U.S. Census Bureau released August retail sales data showing overall retail sales grew 0.7% month-over-month vs. a consensus forecast for a 0.7% drop, while retail sales ex autos and gas rose 2% month-over-month vs. a consensus forecast for no change. Auto sales remained under pressure because of supply chain bottlenecks and higher prices, accounting for the large gulf in the numbers. The big beats come on the heels of disappointing July data, which received additional negative revisions, taking a small bit of the shine off August’s numbers.

Nonetheless, the spending resilience shown in this report is receiving an overwhelmingly early positive response, as economic releases in recent weeks have generally been surprising to the downside. COVID-19’s resurgence in recent months is surely to blame for a significant portion of the lowered expectations, but consumers have also been forced to contend with rising prices, severe weather events, lukewarm payroll gains, and cuts to enhanced unemployment benefits.

“There have been several reasons to question the consumer outlook recently,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “And yet, the old mantra ‘never bet against the U.S. consumer’ continues to ring true. This has been a volatile series of late, but we look for the consumer to continue powering this economy well into the future.”

As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, retail sales ticked significantly higher in August following a difficult July.



The familiar theme of goods over services consumption seen during prior virus flare-ups is evident in this report, as well as a back-to-school boost. General merchandise stores (3.5%) and nonstore (online) retailers (5.3%) showed large monthly boosts, reversing a disappointing July. In addition, furniture and home furnishing stores rose nicely (3.7%). Meanwhile, food services and drinking places (0.0%), an in-person segment most impacted by virus caution, held steady against forecasts for a decline, while volatile electronics and appliance stores (-3.1%) showed weakness.

We continue to believe that successfully tackling Delta could set up a fourth quarter growth rebound despite many strategists increasingly turning sour on the second half of the year. Cases from this latest COVID-19 wave are starting to decline, and plentiful job openings and impressive wage gains data should prevent a major income shortfall resulting from the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits. Consumers also still have elevated excess savings relative to history—in the neighborhood of $2 trillion. We continue to look for a resilient consumer, as well as for services spending to play catch-up vs. goods spending in coming months.

Inflation Shows Signs Of Moderating
Economic Blog

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

After a crazy summer of nosebleed inflation readings, we may finally be starting to see signs of transitory inflation.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this morning, which came in softer than expected. Headline CPI climbed 0.3% month-over-month vs. estimates of 0.4%, while core CPI jumped only 0.1% month-over-month vs. estimates of 0.3%. Base effects from rolling off weak numbers a year earlier meant the year-over-year numbers were larger, but we find more usefulness in the monthly numbers until we get past the weak comparisons versus a year ago.

To be sure, a resurgent Delta variant played a part in dampening overall inflation, and future reports will help clarify the magnitude of its effect—but, expectations were already lowered to account for this dynamic and the data still missed.

One major takeaway from the report is that the composition of the decline suggests that the long-awaited abatement in price spikes in supply-constrained segments of the economy could be upon us. These relatively smaller parts of the overall CPI basket were driving an outsized portion of the gains this summer. Used cars and trucks (-1.5%), airfare (-9.1%), and lodging away from home (-3.3%) all declined significantly month-over-month.

“’Transitory’ has certainly been lasting longer than we originally thought it would,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the CPI components that displayed summer volatility resulting from supply chain bottlenecks are beginning to resolve themselves as expected.”

As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, used car and truck prices have experienced a drop-off after the summer surge, which saw them become the posterchild for bottleneck-driven inflation from semiconductor shortages.



As we have highlighted in previous inflation blogs, we make special note of the trend in rents since they are viewed as “stickier” parts of the inflation outlook and count for more than 40% of the overall calculation. Moreover, the Delta variant likely has less of a direct effect on rents compared to some of the other components mentioned earlier. As such, owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.25% month-over-month, down slightly compared to the prior two months, a modest pace that is unlikely to spook even the most hawkish inflation watchers.

Gauging the Federal Reserve’s reaction function to inflation and jobs data is fast becoming the market’s primary focus. Following August’s weak payroll report, market participants have mostly pushed back their expected timelines for tapering asset purchases so long as inflation does not spiral out of control in the meantime. Judging by the early market reaction, today’s softer inflation numbers are confirming that narrative.

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 9.17.21-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 9.17.21-

 

​

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for September 17th, 2021
Video from Alphatrends


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.19.21
Video from ShadowTrader

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 9.20.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 9.20.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 9.21.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 9.21.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.22.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.22.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 9.23.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 9.23.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.24.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

Friday 9.24.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/20-9/24) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this week!

• Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/20) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for Monday!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 20th, 2021 <-- click there to view!

 

Haha, you too @stock1234! Thanks as always for keeping these threads active in here every week! Really cannot say this enough!!

Also, sorry if I've been a bit inactive towards the latter part of this past week. Kinda had a busy week on the IRL (in real life) front unfortunately.

So, I legged back in on the short side in the Spuz towards the latter part of today @ 4422 (which interestingly enough was spot on where I had closed out my short from my initial 4542 entry on Sept. 3rd, earlier in the week lol). That being said, I feel like this could maybe prove to be a pretty poor entry for me, as I think there could be some RYFOR'ing (rip your face off rally) action next week (or at least to start the early part of the week), as we're basically sitting on the daily 50 moving average in the cash SPX. In fact, we actually did close just a touch below it at today's cash close. Hard to see it on the chart below, but perhaps the SPY chart might show it a bit better. Anyway, my guess is that there could be continued squirrelly action around this retail moving average. As investors try to grapple over whether this will be the bottom bouncer from here (yet again), and a trip back north bound back to fresh ATHs from here yet again.....or if it can (dare I say it) break this trend that we have seen since basically the start of this year, where the 50-day has been proven to stop every dip off an ATH dead in its tracks from getting much deeper than -5%. I'm still in that camp that says we'll break through it on the downside this time around, but it could be something like we saw back in March where it was sorta like a fake breakdown, and then a bounce right back over the moving average to new highs. Although, to be honest, I am still leaning for at least the full -5% dippage from the ATH, if not a little more (-7 to -8% and as much as -10%) personally. I think ultimately, a trip to test to big 200dma could be in the cards if the 50-day gives way pretty convincingly like I think it will this time. Or at least that's how I'm positioned for it anyway having put on 7 cars short on the Spuz from my 4422 entry late today.



For as bad as these past few weeks may have seemed (perhaps for the newer investors/traders who haven't really experienced much of any real price drawdown in the SPX at all), I mean after all the SPX is still just only off -2.5% of its intraday ATH. I mean, that's kinda impressive to me at least, given the number of down days there have been vs. up days in the past 2 weeks. You'd think we'd be down a lot more by now, at least to -5% off the ATH. But, the truth is, it's only been -2.48% to be exact from today's (Friday's) SPX cash closing print from the intraday ATH. I mean, that's hardly any kind of noteworthy pullback IMO. It doesn't happen too often where we get this deep into the trading year where there hasn't even even a full -5% pull from a closing high to a closing low. But, that's precisely what we're dealing with here still as we're now into the middle of September. This could certainly all change on a dime too. But, as of now, this has really been about as garden variety of a pullback as we have seen in the SPX all year to this point imo.



Saw this stat hit my twitter news feed earlier in the day. I don't personally read too much into these particular statistics myself, but feel it is at least taking note that the week after Sept. options expiration, has had a relatively strong downside bias historically speaking since at least 1982. Down 25 of the past 31, with an average decline of -0.94% in the SPX.



Which interestingly kinda ties in with the historical performance of the SPX for this month of September dating back to 1950. Where weakness has been seen towards the latter part of this month.



It's not all bad though tbh! Because, typically September has been the one notorious month for market volatility. But, usually once you get into Q4 (Oct-Dec period) has historically been a rather favorable quarter for the equity market. October in particular, and in Post-Election years (like this year) has been a bit mixed, but has been up 10 of the past 17, with the average return of +1% for the SPX.



We'll have to see just how these next couple of weeks will shake out in equity land. Especially as we're now technically sitting just beneath that 50-day. Could be something big brewing or nothing at all. But, at least for me personally, I'm putting my $ where my mouth is lol.

Like I've said a number of times before, I don't normally ever put on trades unless I really feel good about the r/r (risk / reward). Would have felt much better if I entered towards today's cash open, or even better, around yesterday's cash close. Hindsight's 20/20 of course, so it's very easy to say this now after the fact. Not making any excuses for myself, but truth here is I was largely away from my trade desk, and super busy with the IRL for a good part of yesterday and basically all day today. Sucks, but such is life..

I probably won't be able to monitor/trade the market much at all for these next couple of weeks ahead as well actually, as I had gotten word earlier today that my grandmother has now developed some concerning health issues. Needless to say, that's been on my mind quite a lot, and also running errands for the old man (which was p urgent), etc. Doesn't really give me much free time to look at the market, no less put on trades, etc, etc.

But, since I do feel relatively good about the continued downside in the market over the next few more weeks, with it making lower lows from here, I'm thinking I'll just hold onto these shorts, but with a relatively tight stop in case the trade just absolutely doesn't go in my direction. Which is entirely possible, especially early next week.

Anyway, that's all I got for this week! It's 1:45am eastern where I'm at right now. Was kinda wired tonight and couldn't sleep earlier so I figured I'd hop on now while I had some free time to myself to type this post out. But, now starting to feel drowsy so think I'll hit the hay now.

Have a great weekend ahead guys! Will catch up with y'all's next week.

 

yessss. that's awesome to hear oldie! it's been a while!

market finally gettin' a bit interesting and crazy here haha. kinda was waitin' for this action all year lol

hope you had an amazing summer! good seeing you on here.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading week week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 3 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, September the 20th, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/20/21 - When it Rains, it Pours
Mon, Sep 20, 2021

After months of heat, it only seems fitting that problems are boiling to the surface just as Summer winds to a close this week. Between FOMC tapering, slower economic data, the upcoming debt limit, and China's Evergrande, the problems are starting to mount. Futures opened lower last night, and originally the damage didn't look like it was going to be too bad, but by 11 o'clock eastern time, things started to deteriorate.

The continuing collapse of Evergrande is obviously the main concern of investors around the world this morning. The fact that most of those Asian markets are closed for holidays today also makes it harder to discern what the overall impact is going to be and that only creates more uncertainty in other markets around the world that are open for trading today.

S&P 500 futures are near their lows of the morning and indicated to open down by over 1.5%, the 10-year yield is down nearly six basis points to 1.30% (it was actually lower than that last Wednesday), and the VIX is back above 25 and at its highest level since May.

The numbers below are going to look worse in a couple of hours after the US market's open, but the table below breaks down where sectors stand after last week and heading into this morning's decline. Last week, both Materials and Utilities were easily the worst performers with declines of 3% or more. As a result of those losses, the Materials sector moved into oversold territory, while Utilities isn't far behind. Industrials were down by only about half that much, but that was enough to put it into 'Extreme' oversold levels. Along with those three sectors, the only others that were below their 50-day moving averages (DMA) as of Friday were Consumer Staples and Communication Services. While only five sectors were below their 50-DMA as of Friday, there's a good chance that by the end of the day today, either all or all but one of them (Consumer Discretionary) will be below their 50-DMAs. Change has a way of coming quickly in the market.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a check on those futures as we are about 90 minutes from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, September the 21st, 2021!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/21/21 - Attempting a Turnaround
Tue, Sep 21, 2021

Markets are attempting to stage a turnaround Tuesday this morning with equity futures firmly in the green and Europe also trading firmly higher. Just release economic data has provided a boost as both Building Permits and Housing Starts for the month of August came in significantly better than expected, although the strength was attributable to multi-family rather than single-family units.

After a rough options expiration week, this week didn’t start any better as the S&P 500 fell 1.7% yesterday. So how common is it for the S&P 500 to trade down more than 1% on the Monday following options expiration? Since the start of 2010, there have been eighteen other occurrences, and yesterday was the second time this year and the seventh time since the COVID outbreak in 2020; so they are occurring with a bit more frequency lately. That being said, a year before COVID it happened three months in a row spanning November 2018 through January 2019. Also, like 2020, there were five occurrences in 2011.