Stock Market Today: September 18th - 22nd, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of September 18th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

Crude Pumped To 10-Mth High As Stagflation-Scares Slam Stocks & Bonds
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 - 04:00 PM

'Hope' continued to soar this week as 'soft' survey data soared to its highest since Jan 2022 while 'hard' macro data hovered near 6-month lows...



Source: Bloomberg

But it was inflation was spooked everyone (CPI hot, PPI hot, Import/Export prices hot) but UMich sentiment inflation expectations tumbled even as the market's inflation expectations spiked...



Source: Bloomberg

Also, bear in mind that core retail sales disappointed, industrial production slowed, and headline consumer sentiment declined. So slower growth/demand and higher inflation... brilliant.

The Nasdaq fell for the second week in a row and was the biggest loser while The Dow clung to unchanged...



All the majors fell back below their key technical levels today...



Tech stocks suffered the most this week, while Utes outperformed (even with rising rates). Energy ended around unchanged...



Source: Bloomberg

Semis were hammered lower today...



Source: Bloomberg

The so-called 'Magnificent 7' puked today, erasing all of the week's gains...



Source: Bloomberg

While NFLX was clubbed like a baby seal this week, AI-hero NVDA tumbled for the second straight week, back well below the last earnings level (down 13% from its record high after earnings)...



'Most Shorted' stocks fell for the 2nd week in a row (down 6 of the last 7 weeks)...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold again today (2nd day in a row) with the selling starting at the European open and going thru the European close. That lifted all yields higher on the week with the long-end underperforming...



Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield rose back above (and closed above) the key 5.00% level...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week lower but at the upper end of its intra-week range...



Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was mixed this week with Bitcoin eking out modest gains (back above $26,500) and Ethereum slightly lower. Solana was the ugliest horse in the glue factory...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold (spot) ended the week higher, bouncing strongly to the week's highs after testing down to $1900 yesterday...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rose for the 10th week of the last 12 with WTI topping $91, back at levels just prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine...



Source: Bloomberg

Is the soaring gas price already having an impact on demand for gasoline?



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, is the AI bubble froth being blown off?

As Vanda Research notes, the allure of AI stocks is steadily waning, with retail investors showing a decline in their net purchases of AI-related stocks. This diminishing interest is further evidenced by a notable reduction in the frequency of Bloomberg stories covering the AI sector.



The analog remains...



And don't forget that the period from Sept 20-month-end is the worst 'season' for US equities...



And remember the "Week After" Sep Op-Ex has been remarkable in its "consistent weakness", lower 26 of 33 times since 1990, with a median return -1.0% at a 22% hit-rate (i.e. "higher" only 22% of the time)



With the gamma unclench after today's quad-witch, do you feel lucky?

 

Mid-September Seasonal Market Peak

With the Fed on the sidelines, end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing and quarterly options expiration are likely to be the key forces driving the market. As of the 9/14/23 close, DJIA is up 0.53% this September. S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 are all still in the red. Except for DJIA, performance this September has been below average. This potentially does not bode well for the second half of September.

Over the last 21 years, the market has tended to peak on or around the 11th trading day of September (September 18 this year). The average decline from mid-month through the end of the month has been around 2%. We maintain our restrained outlook for the remainder of September and into October. Inflation’s cooling trend is being challenged by rising energy prices and geopolitical concerns are numerous.

Continuing Claims Flatten Out
Thu, Sep 14, 2023

As was expected this week, jobless claims data deteriorated with seasonally adjusted claims rising to 220K from 216K. However, that was better than expectations which were calling for claims to rise by another 5K up to 225K. As shown below, claims continue to sit at the low end of the past several months range, indicating a still healthy labor market.



At the moment, claims prior to seasonal adjustment are at an interesting point of the year. Unadjusted claims totaled 174.5K this week. That is only a couple thousand claims higher than last year and near the slightly lower readings from 2018 and 2019. Overall, those remain some of the strongest readings on record when comparing the like weeks of the year. Additionally, we would note that claims are likely at or near their seasonal low. Historically, the current week of the year has been the annual low a quarter of the time (that being the case in 2018 and 2019) whereas the following week has marked the low another 35.7% of the time. In other words, as we have frequently mentioned in recent weeks, seasonal tailwinds will begin to shift to headwinds in the coming weeks.



Seasonally adjusted continuing claims likewise came in below expectations this week, rising to 1.688 million compared to forecasts of 1.69 million. Again like initial claims, continuing claims are far from worrisome as they sit at historically strong levels, however, the past few months downtrend in claims has begun to bottom out as it has been eight weeks since the last near term low.



Bulls Slump While The Put/Call Ratio Surges
Thu, Sep 14, 2023

The S&P 500 has managed to rise 1.15% in the past week, but sentiment has barely reflected the positive tone. After climbing to 42.2% last week, AAII bullish sentiment dropped right back down to 34.4% this week. That is the largest one week drop in a month although it doesn't leave bullish sentiment at any sort of new low.



The bulls didn't move to the bearish camp, however. In fact, bearish sentiment fell to 29.2%, which is the lowest reading since the week of August 10.



Because the declines in bullish sentiment outpaced the drop in bears, the spread between the two dropped to +5.2.



Given both bulls and bears dropped, neutral sentiment picked up the difference. As shown below, neutral sentiment rose to 36.4% this week, which was the highest reading since the week of May 18th when it was slightly higher at 37.4%.



While the AAII sentiment survey did not see any sort of particularly noteworthy moves this week, the equity put/call ratio did notch a new high yesterday. As shown below, over the past couple of months, the ratio has begun to turn higher with yesterday seeing the highest reading since March 10th. At 1.35, that ratio also measures in the top 1% of all readings since 1995. Remember, a reading above 1 means there are more put buyers (negative bets) than call buyers (positive bets).



CPI Gains Come and Go
Thu, Sep 14, 2023

The S&P 500 managed to rise 0.12% on Wednesday in the wake of the CPI release. That is the fifth month in a row in which the S&P 500 rose in response to a CPI print, and only two months over the past year (February and April) have seen negative reactions. Although the S&P has consistently risen on CPI days, the size of the moves have been less substantial than they were previously. As shown below, taking a rolling 10-day average of the S&P 500's daily change on days that CPI is published shows the average performance remains positive but has turned lower versus a couple months ago when the average move was above 1.2%, which was some of the strongest reactions in a decade and a half.



Although S&P 500 performance has been positive on the day of CPI releases over the last year, looking one week out, the results have been less positive. As shown below, the S&P has consistently fallen in the week after CPI releases. Again taking a rolling 10-day average, one week performance has been negative for 20 months in a row, or every month since the start of 2022.



Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur Sets Up

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur is aligning quite well this year with late September seasonal weakness and the notoriously treacherous week after quarterly options expiration, AKA Triple Witching. It’s a few days before FOMC with a market jittery on hotter inflation data.

Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so our stats us the close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 which is the 16th trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.

The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness.

The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for the Q4 pre-election year rally.

High Rates Dampen Expansion Expectations
Tue, Sep 12, 2023

Early this morning, the NFIB published their latest read on small business sentiment. The headline index fell to 91.3, 0.2 points lower than expectations. Sentiment continues to sit near some of the lowest levels of the past decade, albeit off of the worst post-pandemic period when it had reached a low of 89.0 this past spring.



With the decline in the headline index, it is just shy of the bottom decile of its historical range reinforcing the point that small businesses are historically pessimistic. Breadth in this month's report was fairly mixed with five inputs to the composite falling month over month, three rising, and two going unchanged. As for the other indices, five rose and the remaining three fell.



Employment metrics are some of the areas that have remained somewhat elevated versus history. For example, while many categories are in their bottom deciles of historical readings, job openings hard to fill, compensation, and compensation plans all rank in the 93rd percentile or better. Even plans to increase to increase employment have held up in the top quartile of its historical range. Although current readings would indicate a healthy labor market, conditions have not necessarily improved. As shown below, most of these categories have been trending lower for some time meaning small business labor markets have cooled. However, compensation plans spiked by 5 points in August which is tied for the fifth largest month over month jump on record.



Expectations for changes to sales remain in negative territory meaning that on net more small businesses expect their sales to fall than rise. In August, that reading worsened, and at -14, the index is in the bottom 3% of all readings on record. As with the headline number, although that is a disappointing result, it is off of recent lows. Conversely, actual sales changes are hitting more new lows with the weakest readings since the spring of 2020 and late 2012 before that.



The share of respondents reporting now as a good time to expand their business is another category where readings are at the low end of their historical range without any improvement or further deterioration in August. The NFIB provides a breakdown into the reasons responding firms report their expansion outlook. As shown below, the vast majority report poor economic conditions as the reason which checks out when compared to a very low reading on expectations for the economy to improve. Behind economic conditions, interest rates are the next most quoted reason. That lends to some evidence that the Fed's rate hikes are working as intended.



September Quarterly Options Expiration Treacherous, Week After Awful

Since the S&P index futures began trading on April 21, 1982, stock options, index options as well as index futures all expire at the same time four times each year. Some call it Quadruple Witching or Quad Witch due to single-stock and ETF futures however, their impact on the market appears subdued to us and we continue to prefer using Triple Witching.

September’s quarterly option expiration week has been up 56.1% of the time for S&P 500 since 1982. DJIA and NASDAQ have slightly weaker track records with gains 51.2% of the time and 53.7% of the time respectively.

However, the week has suffered several sizable losses. The worst loss followed the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. In the last twenty years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are tied for best record during September’s quarterly option expiration week, up thirteen times, but NASDAQ has been down the last five straight. Friday had been firm with all three indices advancing every year 2004 to 2011, but S&P 500 has been down ten of the last eleven since.

S&P 500 Down 26 of 33 Week After September Quarterly Options Expiration, Average Loss 1.01%

The week after September options expiration week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September quarterly options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 33 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses. Last year DJIA and S&P 500 declined over 4% while NASDAQ fell 5.07%.

Full stats are the sea-of-red in the tables here. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.07%, S&P 500 –1.01%, NASDAQ –0.98%. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2023-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 9.15.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 9.15.23-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for September 15th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9/14/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/18-9/22) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/18) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 9.18.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 9.18.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 9.19.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 9.19.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 9.20.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 9.20.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 9.21.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 9.21.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.22.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.22.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($FDX $AZO $SFIX $DRI $GIS $DAVA $KBH $FDS $APOG $GHG $ICMB $SCS $VALN $FLUX $SCHL)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 18th, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

Good afternoon StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, September the 18th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/18/23 - Indecision
Mon, Sep 18, 2023

Futures were positive overnight, but equities in Europe have been weakening throughout that session, and with both interest rates and oil continuing to drift higher, that has dampened the mood in US markets as we approach the opening bell. As is usually the case when interest rates are higher, the Nasdaq is leading the pre-market declines, but even here, the magnitude of the weakness has been modest.

The economic calendar is quiet to kick off the week with NAHB Homebuilder sentiment the only report scheduled today. That will be followed with Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday, and then Wednesday will be the day everyone is waiting for as the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged. Last week it was CPI we were all waiting for, and now this week it’s the Fed. There’s always something!

The market has been stuck in a period of indecision for well over a month now as the S&P 500 has traded within 2% of its 50-day moving average (DMA) since early August. Heading into the last two weeks of September, which has historically been one of the weakest two-week periods of the year, the S&P 500 is down around 1.3% for the month. At the sector level, It has been an interesting dynamic as the biggest losers for the month haven’t necessarily been the sectors that were already up the most.

Technology, which is one of the leading sectors YTD, is down more than any other sector on a MTD basis, but Communication Services (the best performing sector YTD) is barely down, and Consumer Discretionary, the third best performing sector YTD, is higher. Both Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary are also outperforming Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate which are three of the four worst performing sectors this year. So, it hasn’t just been a period of mean reversion.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, September 18th, 2023.

 

Good afternoon StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, September the 19th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/19/23 - Divergent Housing Data
Tue, Sep 19, 2023

Futures are looking at a modestly positive open this morning even as crude oil and treasury yields are higher. Buildings Permits and Housing Starts were just released, and this was one of the weirder reports we have seen in a while. While Building Permits topped consensus forecasts by about 100K, Housing Starts missed forecasts by about 150K! The reaction in futures has been modestly negative, but at this point, investors have their sites set on the FOMC tomorrow.

While it’s on pace for its third straight day of declines today, the US Dollar Index has had a big rally over the last two months that took it to its highest levels of 2023. With that strength, the 50-day moving average (DMA) has been catching up to the 200-DMA which has also just started to turn higher. Given the trajectory of both moving averages, the Dollar Index is likely to have a ‘Golden Cross’ in the coming days which occurs when a short-term moving average (like the 50-DMA) crosses up through a longer-term average (like the 200-DMA) as both are rising. Technicians consider these types of patterns to be bullish over the longer-term, but often their record in theory is much different than in actual practice.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, September 19th, 2023.

 

Good morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are about 2 hours into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, September the 20th, 2023!