Stock Market Today: September 11th - 15th, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of September 11th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

'Better' Data Buggers Bonds & Bullion; Beijing, Banks, & Big-Tech Batter Stocks
FRIDAY, SEP 08, 2023 - 04:00 PM

A rebound in macro data, relative to expectations this week, was notable, but it was driven mostly by 'soft' data upside surprises (and worse still, inflation-expectations rose amid slowing growth signals)...



Source: Bloomberg

Nevertheless, the market saw strength and repriced STIRs hawkishly higher on the week...



Source: Bloomberg

And that weighed on risk-assets.

Small Caps were clubbed like a baby seal this (holiday-shortened) week but all the majors ended lower...



Energy stocks dominated the week (and are up for the 9th day in the last 10) and along with Utes were the only sector in the green. Industrials and Materials were the laggards...



Source: Bloomberg

Apple suffered its second worst week since November (down 10% from highs in July) as Beijing started to clampdown on iPhone use...



AI Beneficiaries suffered this week as they failed to make a new cycle high and slipped lower...



Source: Bloomberg

...led by a big drop in NVDA, back below pre-earnings levels..



Regional bank stocks are down for the 5th week in the last 6...



...and judging by the continued surge in their usage of The Fed's emergency funds, there could be more to go to the downside...



Source: Bloomberg

The big winners of the week were fat-loss-drug-peddling companies (GLP-1) which outperformed the market and so-called 'at-risk' companies (healthcare-related firms face pressure from lower obesity, reduced cardiovascular events)...



Source: Bloomberg

It has been a big trade YTD...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed again today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -1bps, 2Y +3bps). On the week, all yields were higher, led by the short-end...



Source: Bloomberg

2Y Yields spiked back above 5.00% early in the week but ended back below it as the the yield curve flattened significantly...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged to its best week since February and its highest weekly close since December. The dollar has risen for 8 straight weeks...



Source: Bloomberg

China's offshore yuan fell for 5 straight days against the dollar for its worst week since February to close at a record low against the greenback...



Source: Bloomberg

Notably though, the renminbi has traded stronger relative to its trade-weighted peers (i.e. against everyone but the dollar, the yuan is strengthening)...



Source: Bloomberg

Crypto had a quiet week, interrupted by yesterday's pump and dump, with Bitcoin hovering just below $26,000...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied for the 9th week of the last 11 with WTI pushing up towards $90 (its highest weekly close since November)



Gold was modestly lower on the week (using the same time period as the chart above for some context)...



NatGas, Silver, And Crude were all down hard on the week...



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we point out comments from Goldman's trading desk that Cyclical stocks and High-Yield credit (and credit-sensitive stocks) are priced extremely optimistically with the 'soft-landing' narrative now consensus...





However, as they highlighted, goldilocks is required as 'too-strong' data could lead to higher real rates (bad for risk assets), and 'too weak' data could severely disappoint current cyclical pricing.

 

Bulls Bounce as S&P Stumbles
Thu, Sep 7, 2023

Although the S&P 500 has dropped in the past week, sentiment has surged with the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showing 42.2% of respondents reporting as bullish. That is up 9.1 percentage points from the previous week. While not large enough to earn any long standing superlatives, it marks the largest one week jump in bullish sentiment since July 20th when it increased 10.4 percentage points and indicates a significant increase in bullish sentiment.



Bearish sentiment in turn was lower at 29.6%. However, the weekly decline was much smaller at only 4.9 percentage points. Although the jump in bullish sentiment did not borrow heavily from bears, the 4.9 percentage point drop was the largest one week decline since early June.



Additionally, the drop in bearish sentiment was enough to lift the bull-bear spread back into positive territory. That follows two straight weeks of negative readings. While not as elevated as the late spring and early summer, at these levels, the bull-bear spread is indicating more bullish sentiment than has been observed for much of the past year and a half.



Using the latest AAII data in combination with the findings from the sentiment surveys from Investors Intelligence and the NAAIM Exposure Index, our weekly sentiment composite indicates that investors hold slightly more optimism than has been the historical norm as the index is slightly positive. That compares to negative readings the prior two weeks and extremely bullish readings as recently as the second half of July.

In last night's Closer, we included a look at this composite with the addition of another sentiment indicator: the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index.



Housing Prices Back on the Rise
Thu, Sep 7, 2023

In last night's Closer, we discussed a couple of recent releases of alternative housing data sets including the latest delinquency data from Black Knight and housing inventory numbers from Realtor.com. Zeroing on the latter, Realtor.com's August inventory data showed only 585K active listings nationally after seasonal adjustment. Inventories have been drawn upon for seven months in a row, resulting in the lowest level since June 2022. On the bright side, August did also see a seasonally unusual uptick in new listings, but that only puts a small dent in what are historically low inventories.



Using state level data aggregated by region, the multi-month drawdown in inventories has been observed throughout the country. The South has tended to have the highest quantity of homes on the market while the opposite applies to the Northeast. In fact, whereas other regions have generally seen inventories rise off of their lowest levels reached in late 2021, the Northeast is only slightly above its series low.



Similar to aggregate inventory levels, median days on market are well off their record lows early last year but have begun to roll over. Currently, median days on market is at 53 days, which is well below the pre-pandemic range.



Given the continued low supply, prices have swung higher with median prices at the highest level since last July both in terms of total price and price per square foot. Rising at a high single digit month over month annualized pace, August also saw the most rapid appreciation since June of last year.



Breaking down home prices by geography, the West has the highest median home price in the country, but those prices have been relatively stagnant since early 2022. The Northeast, on the other hand, has consistently had the second highest prices in the country and prices have been steadily rising. In fact, prior to seasonal adjustment, prices in the Northeast have risen 11% YoY compared to the next highest of 8.8% YoY in the Midwest and low single digit growth in the South and West. For more in-depth coverage of housing and the economy, make sure to subscribe to our Closer feed.



Claims Notch New Lows
Thu, Sep 7, 2023

The latest update of jobless claims was broadly positive with both initial and continuing claims moving lower by more than expected. Although initial claims were revised up by 1K to 229K last week, this week's reading fell down to 216K. That means claims have broken down out of the past several months range, notching the lowest levels since the end of January.



Before seasonal adjustment, claims are even more impressively low at 190K. That marks the third week in a row below 200K, however, that is still above the comparable readings for the same weeks of the year in 2018, 2019, and 2022. Additionally, as we show in the second chart below, the current week of the year has historically been the one to see claims put in their annual low meaning from a seasonal perspective, claims will face headwinds from here on out.



Switching over to seasonally adjusted continuing claims, like initial claims the latest reading is back down to the low end of the recent range. Claims have been fluctuating around 1.7 million over the past couple of months, but at 1.679 million this week, continuing claims are tied with the week of July 15th for the lowest reading since January 21st.



The 20 Most Loved Stocks by Wall Street Analysts
Wed, Sep 6, 2023

In the large-cap Russell 1,000, there are more than 18,800 individual analyst ratings, meaning the average stock in the roughly 1,000 member index has more than 18 analyst recommendations. It's widely known that there are way more "buy" ratings than "sell" or "hold" ratings, but to put a number to it, right now 54.5% of all analyst ratings in the Russell 1,000 are "buy" ratings. (A "buy" rating includes terms like "outperform" or "overweight" that some firms prefer to use.)

Today we wanted to provide you with a list of the current stocks in the Russell 1,000 that have the highest percentage of "buy" ratings. These could be considered the most loved stocks by Wall Street analysts. (To be included on the list below, the stock needed to have at least five analyst ratings.)

Starting at the top, there are nine stocks that have 100% buy ratings, and the name with the most number of buys is Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) at eleven. WillScot Mobile (WSC), Royalty Pharma (RPRX), Liberty Media Sirius XM (LSXMA), Kirby (KEX), Curtiss-Wright (CW), Churchill Downs (CHDN), Service Corp (SCI), and Howard Hughes (HHH) are the eight other stocks with 100% buy ratings. The remaining eleven stocks shown have at least 93% buy ratings, and the most notable are two mega-caps with $1+ trillion market caps: Amazon (AMZN) and NVIDIA (NVDA). At the moment, 61 of 64 analyst ratings for Amazon (AMZN) are buys, while 59 of 63 ratings for NVIDIA (NVDA) are buys.

NVIDIA (NVDA) has already surged 232% in 2023, so it's pretty remarkable that analysts are still this bullish on the name. It may be hard to believe, but the average analyst price target for NVDA has moved up to $638/share. NVDA's current share price is 26.6% below that price target. The average stock in the Russell is only 14% below its consensus price target, so analysts expect more gains for NVDA than they do for the average name in the index.

Remember, from a contrarian's perspective, a stock with an extremely high percentage of buy ratings may be a name to avoid. After all, once you get to 100%, there's no more room for analysts to get more bullish!



2% Moves Are Back
Wed, Sep 6, 2023

As we noted in a tweet this morning, price action of US equities has been flipped from Tuesday with large caps suffering larger losses than small caps. Looking at yesterday, the decline in the Russell 2,000 (-2.1%) dwarfed the S&P 500's (-0.4%). For the small cap Russell 2,000, that marked the first daily move of at least 2% (positive or negative) since June 5th when the index rallied 2.4%. As shown below, that three month stretch without a daily move of 2% is far from the longest on record, but it does stand out as one of the largest in some time. Running for 61 trading days, it was the longest since the 133 day streak ending on 10/9/18.



As previously mentioned, today's price action is a bit of the reverse of Tuesday, however, the S&P 500 is far from a 2% drop of its own. In fact, the S&P 500 has been on an even longer streak without a 2% daily move. At 136 trading days, the current streak ranks as the longest since February 2018 (310 days). As with the Russell, the current streak would have a long way to go to reach records that lasted for years like from 2003 to 2006. Regardless, the fact of the matter is that day to day volatility by this measure has been extremely muted of late.



September Opens Typically Weak and Closes Weaker

Although the month used to open strong, S&P 500 has declined nine times in the last fifteen years on the first trading day. With fund managers tending to sell underperforming positions ahead of the end of the third quarter there have been some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years.

Recent substantial declines occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (DJIA: –11.1%), 2002 (DJIA –12.4%), the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (DJIA: –6.0%), U.S. debt ceiling debacle in 2011 (DJIA –6.0%) and in 2022 (DJIA –8.8%).

Do not anticipate any major selloff and expect new highs around yearend. But expect some sort of surprise to send stocks into another mild correction before the Q4 rally ensues. Nobody wants to talk about it or hear about it, but inflation appears to be done cooling. Further hints at higher inflation will likely heat up the “higher-for-longer” chatter and weigh on stocks.

Concerned that we are poised for a September surprise in the financial sector. Would not be shocked if one of the rating agencies comes and announces a host of bank downgrades, perhaps starting at the top with a big bank. They did warn us back in March during the banking scare and most recently with the Fitch downgrade of the US credit rating.

Either way, expect any weakness to be temporary and for the market to continue to track the seasonal and 4-year cycle patterns illustrated in these charts as it has all year and since 2021.



Three Reasons Stocks Might Shine in the Usually Weak September
Posted on September 5, 2023

“If you torture numbers enough they will tell you anything.” -Hall of Fame and Yankee great Yogi Berra

After the best start to a new year over the first seven months for the S&P 500 since 1997, stocks finally fell in August, ending a five-month win streak. In the end the S&P 500 was down only 1.8%, but had fallen close to 5% before a late month rally.

This seasonal weakness wasn’t a surprise to us, as we expected stocks to potentially take a bit of a break after the huge rally as we discussed in Stocks Don’t Like August, Now What? The good news is weakness was normal for this time of year. The bad news is the worst month of the year historically is now upon us.

As you might have heard 50,000 times by now, September has historically been the weakest month of them all. Since 1950, it has been down an average of 0.66%. But it doesn’t stop there, as it was also the worst month of the year during a pre-election year, over the past 20 years, and the past 10 years. You can’t ignore this, as we might not be out of the woods just yet, but there are some signs September could be better this year.



Digging into the data a little more closely we found three reasons to think stocks could actually gain in this usually rough month. Of course, as Yogi told us in the quote above, if we torture the data enough it’ll give us what we want to hear. Still, we’d at least say the chances of a huge September drop like last year is quite low.

The first thing that stood out to us is that years that were down big heading into September tended to see some of the worst returns. For example, last year’s 9.3% drop in September after stocks were already down 17% for the year through August. In fact, the last five times the S&P 500 was down at least 10% heading into September going back 50 years, the month saw absolutely massive drops.



The good news is stocks are on firm footing this year, likely mitigating the risk of a banana peel month for the bulls. In fact, when stocks were up more than 10% heading into September, but on the heels of a red August, September has been higher 8 out of 10 times with some great returns, while the rest of the year has never been lower, up 9.0% on average from September through December.



The second reason we think September could be better than expected is we found that when stocks gained more than 15% after the first seven months and then fell in August (like ’23) the chances of a strong September were quite high, with stocks higher eight out of nine times with some very solid returns. Even better news is stocks have never been lower the rest of the year (from September through December) with an average gain of more than 11%. Another 11% from here would put us at new all-time highs for the first time since January 3, 2022, something we think is still quite possible.



The last reason to think stocks could have a better-than-expected September is looking way back at what happened in January. We noted back then that a strong January usually meant a strong full year, and that has played out quite well so far, but it also could be a clue that September and the rest of the year could be strong. When you have a 5% gain or more for stocks in January, along with an August drop (like ’23) we found September was higher six out of eight times with some nice gains, while the rest of the year was higher all eight times and up 9.4% on average.



Despite a clouded history, the odds of a huge drop in September like we saw last year are quite low. We could still see some seasonal choppiness of course, but the odds favor the potential for some green this September as well.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2023-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 9.8.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 9.8.23-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for September 8th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9/10/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/11-9/15) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/11) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 9.11.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 9.11.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 9.12.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 9.12.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 9.13.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 9.13.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 9.14.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 9.14.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.15.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 9.15.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $CPRT $SMTC $LEN $CASY $CBRL $FCEL $EGIO $AVO $SKIL $HITI $REVG $EPM $BOWL $INNV $MYTE $MITK $FARM $BIOX $CGNT $RFIL $MTRX $BUR $IPW $IBEX $LPTH $RSSS $MAMA $IREN $EGAN)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 11th, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

Hi guys, apologies here again but I'm just throwing up next week's thread a little earlier than usual due to being hideously pressed for time nowadays. Will need to continue doing it like this for the foreseeable future unfortunately. Hope you guys all have a great weekend and trading week ahead!!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, September the 11th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/11/23
Mon, Sep 11, 2023

After a weak start to September, futures are heading into the new week on a positive note. There’s a handful of important economic reports this week, including CPI (Wed), PPI (Thur), and Retail Sales (Thur), but the week will start off quietly as there are no economic or earnings reports on the calendar. One notable release today, though, will be the NY Fed’s survey of Consumer Expectations which has become a widely watched gauge for inflation expectations.

The last five trading days, which also encompass all of September, have been weak for US stocks as nine out of eleven sectors are down month to date and seven of them are down over 1%. Despite the weakness, the losses have been relatively contained as Industrials is the only sector down more than 2%. Behind Industrials, Technology, the most important sector in the market given its weighting, is down 1.63%. To the upside, the only two sectors positive this month are Utilities (+0.35%) and Energy (+3.52%). In a market environment preoccupied with inflation, it shouldn’t be a surprise that when the Energy sector rallies over 3%, the rest of the market may struggle.



Looking at the Energy sector, ever since late June, the sector ETF (XLE) has been steadily trending higher moving from oversold to overbought territory, and it is now less than 2% from its 52-week high in November and less than 10% from its all-time high in 2014.



The Industrials sector has been weak (like the rest of the market) of late, and on Friday it closed right at the lower end of a short-term trading range, but even of that level breaks, the sector ETF (XLI) is trading comfortably above the high end of its trading range from 2023.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, September 11th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, September the 12th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 9/12/22 - Low Energy
Tue, Sep 12, 2023

The negative tone in futures this morning is largely attributable to the negative reaction to Oracle's (ORCL) earnings after the close on Monday. The stock is trading down over 10% which put the stock on pace for its most negative reaction to earnings since December 2011. Besides ORCL, the focus is on Apple (AAPL) which will unveil the new iPhone early this afternoon. In economic news, the only report on the calendar was the NFIB report on small business sentiment. The headline index for that report came in slightly weaker than expected (91.3 vs 91.5) and declined modestly from last month's reading of 91.9.

In yesterday’s email, we noted the absolute and relative strength of the Energy sector in the first five trading days of September. When the opening bell rang on Monday, it looked as though that strength would continue to start the week. Within the first few minutes of trading, the Energy sector was up just under 1% and trading at a YTD high, but from there it ran out of gas and proceeded to drift lower all day. By the time they rang the closing bell, the Energy sector finished the day down well over 1%.



When a stock or index makes both a higher high and a lower low relative to the prior day’s range, technical analysts refer to it as an outside day, and it is considered a signal of a potential reversal in the prior trend. The actual record of these patterns playing out as expected is mixed, but we would note that the S&P 500 had a similar outside day right at the high in late July and has yet to get back to those levels in the seven weeks since.



Getting back to the Energy sector, in its history since 1990, yesterday was just the sixth time that the sector had an outside reversal day that was comprised of an intraday high of at least 0.5% relative to the prior close but where it closed the day down over 1%.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, September 12th, 2023.