Stock Market Today: November 6th - 10th, 2023

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, November the 7th, 2023!

 

Good Tuesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 11/7/23 - A Day of Rest
Tue, Nov 7, 2023

And on the seventh day, the market rested. After six straight days of the rally looks like it’s taking a day off as equities, crude oil, gold, bitcoin, and even treasury yields are lower. Some of the concerns this morning can be tied to comments made by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who said he cannot rule out further rate hikes. On the economic calendar, it’s another light session this morning as will be the case most of the week even as the quantity of earnings reports remains very busy.

Over in Europe, the major indices are all down between 0.1% and 0.5%. PPI for the region was down an incredible 12.4%, and what was even more incredible was that it was a smaller decline than expected! In Germany, construction data was weaker than expected and showed the weakest level of activity since April 2020.

While momentum in the market pulled back yesterday, last week’s rally was accompanied by exceptionally strong breadth. As an example, the S&P 500’s 5-day advance/decline (A/D) line surged to +1,476 as of Friday which ranked as the 7th highest reading dating all the way back to 1990. The chart below shows historical readings in the 5-day A/D line, and the reason it only goes back to 2008 is that before that there were no readings that ever exceeded +1,400. That’s due in at least part to the fact that around that time is when the popularity of ETFs really started to explode creating what has become the current all-or-nothing nature of the market.



The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 going back to 2008 on a log scale, and the red dots show every other time that the 5-day A/D line reached +1,400 or higher. As shown, these types of readings occurred at all different phases of the market cycle. While the late 2021 occurrence right near the market top sticks out like a big pimple, other occurrences don’t look nearly as ominous.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, November 7th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, November the 8th, 2023!

 

Good Wednesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 11/8/23 - Listless Wednesday
Wed, Nov 8, 2023

Futures are little changed this morning but biased to the positive side, as the direction of the market is listless with little in the way of economic data or major earnings reports to speak of. Perhaps the most notable move has been in crude oil, where WTI is down over 1% after falling through its 200-day moving average yesterday.

Yesterday’s gain for the Nasdaq was the index’s eighth straight positive day in a row and the longest streak of consecutive gains since November 2021. In the process of this 8.3% rally, the Nasdaq has also managed to reclaim both its 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMA)- levels it was below before the streak started. While the Nasdaq has managed to trade back above both of its key moving averages, it finished the day right at the downtrend that has been in place since the summer highs, so that is a potential roadblock as the rally looks to keep going.



Eight-day winning streaks are nothing out of the ordinary for the Nasdaq. Since the index’s inception back in 1971, there have been 86 prior winning streaks of at least eight days with the longest, back in 1979, stretching to 19 days. In the current streak, we’re not even halfway there. What is much more uncommon for the Nasdaq is to start an eight-day winning streak below both its 50 and 200-DMAs and by the eighth day of the streak to trade back above both of those levels. Since 1971, there have only been ten prior periods where that occurred (red lines in the chart).

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, November 8th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, November the 9th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 11/9/23 - Keeping the ‍♂️‍♀️ Going
Thu, Nov 9, 2023

Futures are basically flat this morning as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each look to extend their winning streaks to ten and nine, respectively. The only data on the calendar today is jobless claims at 8:30, but there is a decent amount of Fedpseak to navigate including Chair Powell at 2 PM. With the market going up every day now for nearly two weeks, you can imagine that investor sentiment has improved. In this morning's latest update to the AAII sentiment survey, bullish sentiment surged from 24.3% up to 42.6% which is the highest level since August. Bearish sentiment, conversely, has been nearly cut in half falling from just over 50% (50.3%) down to 27.2%.

As treasury yields have collapsed over the two weeks, short-term returns on long-term US Treasuries have surged. Take the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury ETF (TLT). Over the last two weeks, it has surged over 7% putting its two-week change in the 99th percentile relative to all other ten-day moves in the ETF's history. It’s still down over 7% since the end of August, but that’s a story for another day.



Given the magnitude of the recent move and the big losses we have seen in TLT in recent months, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the ETF’s day-to-day volatility has also become elevated. Over the last 50 trading days, TLT’s average daily move has been 1.10% (up or down) which ranks in the 94th percentile relative to all other periods. The only times where this measure was higher were during the Financial Crisis, when S&P downgraded the sovereign debt rating of the US from AAA, briefly during COVID, and most recently, late last year and into early this year.



While volatility in the Treasury market is historically high, volatility in the equity market remains low. Over the last 50 trading days, the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) has been just 0.65% which ranks right in the middle of its historical range.



With TLT averaging a daily move of over 1.1% it has been about 45 bps more volatile than SPY over the last 50 trading days. Since the inception of TLT in late 2002, there were just 17 trading days spanning late 2010 and into early 2011 and just another 5 trading days in July 2015 where the spread was wider. In other words, you don’t see this very often.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, November 9th, 2023.