Stock Market Today: November 27th - December 1st, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of November 27th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

Stocks Surge For 4th Straight Week Amid US Macro Meltdown
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 - 01:00 PM

Stocks rallied for the 4th straight week - longest sin-streak since June - led by The Dow, and Small Caps surge today back into the green for the week...



... as plunging US Macro data...



Source: Bloomberg

...supported the trend for rising expectations of rate-cuts...



Source: Bloomberg

...just ignore the implied recession needed to fulfill expectations for 100bps of cuts next year!

Meanwhile, financial conditions have done nothing but loosen since Powell mentioned the market doing The Fed's job of 'tightening'...



Source: Bloomberg

US equity majors are up 9-13% off the late October lows...



Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, tech underperformed on the week while energy stocks soared (despite being barely positive)...



Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended higher on the week (largely thanks to a 6-8bps jump in yields today) with the short-end underperforming on the week...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended lower for the 3rd week of the last 4, at 3-month lows...



Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin on the week, rallying back above $2100...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin broke out to a new cycle high, near $38,500...



Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold prices jumped back above $2000 (silver outperformed on the week, up 2.5%)...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended the week very marginally higher (after 4 weeks down in a row), but with plenty of chop on the way...



Finally, with regard to the 'Santa Rally', Goldman Sachs notes that on a 10-year lookback, equities tend to struggle in December, particularly the Mag 7...



Source: Bloomberg

And with the S&P higher 15 of the last 18 sessions, on track to post its best month since July off 2022, bringing us back to multi-month highs in terms of prices, but in terms of valuation as well. Across eight different measures, the median absolute metric trades in its 89th percentile relative to history.



Do you feel lucky?

 

Flash PMIs Mixed
Fri, Nov 24, 2023

Predicting the direction of the US or global economy has always been a humbling profession, but doing it in the post-Covid economy where monetary and fiscal activity has gone into ‘Ludicrous’ mode only makes an impossible job even harder. The latest releases of global flash PMI readings for November from S&P Global only add to the already long list of examples. As discussed with the overseas releases in The Morning Lineup (link) earlier today, these indices make up about 85% of responses for the final PMI reading in a given month. As for the US, manufacturing activity, as measured by the PMIs, slipped back into contraction during November. Manufacturing PMI has now been at or below 50 for 12 of the last 13 months and the last 7 straight, and S&P Global noted that "demand conditions stagnated" at US factories. As for Services, activity beat and rose sequentially, marking the 10th straight month of expansion (a reading above 50).

As shown in the charts below, historically US PMIs have been a solid guide to global activity, explaining about 80% of the variation in global manufacturing and services activity. When we do the same analysis for the average across flash economies, we do even better as these readings explain 89% or more of the variation (0.89 for manufacturing and 0.94 for the services sector).



While the US readings and the average of the global flash readings have both done a good job as a guide to the global economy, their short-term moves in November were contradictory. In the charts below, we show the US, global, and an average of all the readings for economies that report flash PMIs. As shown, for both the manufacturing and services sectors, average flash data tends to be a pretty consistent guide to where global final data (green line) for a given month ends up and confirms the results from the chart above. For this month, though, in both the manufacturing and the services sectors, the direction of the US reading was in the opposite direction as the average flash readings of its global peers. This is hardly the first (or the last) time these readings will move in opposite directions on a month-to-month basis, but it doesn't help what is an already confusing environment to navigate.



Happy Thanksgiving! 2023 YTD Winners
Fri, Nov 24, 2023

The average Russell 3,000 (a combination of the large-cap Russell 1,000 and the small-cap Russell 2,000) stock is up just over 5% year-to-date on a total return basis. Below is a list of the best performing stocks in the index so far in 2023. All 28 stocks are up more than 200%.



The problem with some of this year's big winners is that they're still down significantly from highs made a couple years ago. For example, below is a list of stocks that are up more than 100% this year but still down at least 25% over the last two years. If you managed to buy these names in early 2023, congrats. If you bought them towards the end of 2021, however, you're still not even close to getting back to even.



To weed out this year's winners that are still in massive drawdowns, below is a list of stocks that are up more than 100% this year and also up more than 75% over the last two years. The list below contains the 27 stocks in the Russell 3,000 that fit this bill. As shown, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is on top with a 249% gain in 2023 and a 583% gain over the last two years. Other names on the list that you might know include elf Beauty (ELF), Vita Coco (COCO), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Duolingo (DUOL), and Builders FirstSource (BLDR). The rest of the names on the list are more than likely names you haven't read much about before. If you have some time over the long Thanksgiving weekend, though, give them a look!



Market Cap Less of a Factor In Performance
Fri, Nov 24, 2023

One trend investors have become used to over the last year is the outperformance of mega-cap stocks while seemingly every other stock in the S&P 500 struggles. In the four weeks since the October low on 10/27, though, there has been more uniformity in the gains.

The chart below breaks out the performance of S&P 500 stocks by decile with the largest stocks by market cap in decile one and the smallest in decile ten. Across the S&P 500, the average performance of stocks in the index is a gain of 9.5% since the 10/27 close, and no decile is outperforming the average gain by more than 1.7 percentage points. Yes, the decile of the largest stocks is outperforming every other decile (when you look at performance out to two decimal places), but there hasn’t been an overwhelming leader in terms of performance.



The charts below show the same analysis for mid (S&P 400) and small (S&P 600) cap stocks. For the S&P 400, while there is a wide disparity between performance across different deciles, outside of the smallest decile also being the decile with the worst average performance, there’s been no correlation between market cap and performance. Finally, in the small-cap space, there has been even less correlation between performance and market cap as three of the four worst-performing deciles are right in the middle of the pack when it comes to market cap (Deciles 4, 5, and 7). Are the days of simply buying the largest stocks and watching them trounce the rest of the market numbered?

Six Reasons to Be Thankful


“We do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time because we are most certain that we are right just when we are most likely to be wrong.” -Jason Zweig, writer at the Wall Street Journal

As we look to finish up 2023 on a strong note, there are many reasons to be thankful as investors. Here are six reasons we would like to share.

Stocks Are Having a Great Year
The S&P 500 is up 17.6% for the year, a very solid year in the face of many worries and concerns. We came into this year overweight equities and said there would be no recession. It wasn’t a popular view and we got many funny looks (and even some stern calls for not understanding how bad it was out there), but fortunately, things have played out very close to how we expected.

But what about all the worries you ask? Here’s the thing, all years have worries and concerns. One year ago, nearly every strategist and economist on TV was telling us the bear market wasn’t over and a recession was a near certainty. Go look at the quote from Jason at the top for a great way of understanding what happened. Fortunately they’ve all been wrong. It’s been a great year for stocks, which should have investors smiling and is a reason to be thankful.



The Path Remains Higher for Stocks
We remain overweight equities, as we continue to expect the economy to surprise to the upside next year and the bull market we’ve been in for 13 months now to continue.

From a purely technical point of view, the trend is higher, potentially much higher. According to Point & Figure charting, the target on the S&P 500 is 5,300, which would be a gain of approximately 18% from here. Take note there is no time frame for hitting this, it is only a pure price target. Also realize that this isn’t the only reason we are bullish, but it is another nice building block supporting the bullish thesis.

You can read more about Point & Figure charting from our friends at Investopedia here, but the bottom line is the trend has been higher and likely will continue to be.



The Consumer Remains Healthy
We’ve been hearing for two years now that the consumer was tapped out and the economy was headed for a recession. Many economists used things like yield curves, M2 money supply, Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), and credit markets to scare investors into thinking trouble was coming and the consumer was cracking. Well, the consumer has continued to surprise and we don’t think things will change anytime soon.

Our economy is still adding approximately 200,000 jobs a month and real wages are reaching new highs, both great signs of consumer health.

Yes, there are some small cracks potentially forming with delinquencies moving higher, but in many cases we are still well beneath pre-COVID levels. Think about it, how bad could things be when Ferrari is making an all-time high? Yes, clearly few people can afford one, but it is hard to see a global disaster coming when this stock is doing so well.



We did also see a big jump in consumption last quarter. Remember, this took place as student loans and higher rates took hold. In fact, retail sales and food services are still running at 5% above pre-COVID trends, with no signs of slowing down.



Fear Is Still Everywhere
They say the stock market climbs a wall of worry, which is something it has undoubtedly done so far this year. We were on record in late October saying a major low was likely, as it was clear that overall sentiment had turned too bearish. Remember, once everyone who wants to sell has sold, it means that only buyers are left.

The New York Fed surveys consumers monthly and in the October survey the mean probability of higher U.S. stock prices in a year was the lowest it had been all year!



But that’s just a survey. Let’s look at the hard data of what investors really are doing. According to data from S&P Market Global, retail investors sold stocks last month like rarely before seen in history. Retail investors sold stocks to the tune of $15.6 billion in October, which was more than in October 2022 at the bottom of a vicious bear market. Unfortunately, this likely means many investors sold right as the market made another major low, but from a contrarian point of view, this is how lows form.



Manufacturing Is Stronger Than Many Think
We saw a manufacturing recession last year, but this year the hard data has been much better than much of the soft survey data has been saying. The truth is historically manufacturing tends to lead the economy and it isn’t a coincidence we just saw three consecutive negative earnings quarters year-over-year with manufacturing lagging overall. The good news is we are seeing signs manufacturing is bottoming and should begin to grow nicely next year.

Here we show major surges in real manufacturing construction and high-tech construction spending. Yes, much of this is due to things like the CHIPS Act, which is incentivizing companies to bring semiconductors and other high-tech manufacturing back to the U.S. (called onshoring), but it is hard for us to consider this a negative event and likely it will lead to better productivity and economic growth down the road.



The Year End Rally Is Alive and Well
One of the amazing things about 2023 is how consistently it played out with history, from a strong first half, to a weak Q3, to a likely strong year-end rally. These are all what ‘the book’ said should happen. Well, we don’t officially know if we will have an end of year rally, but the S&P 500 is up more than 7% in November already and we are optimistic there could be more gains in store.

This chart of previous years up more than 10% at their midpoint does a great job showing how this year has played out, and why more strength is possible before the New Year’s ball drops.



Much to Be Thankful For
As we’ve been trying our best to lay out for more than a year now, the positives for markets and the economy have outweighed the negatives this year. Yes, there are many concerns and the headlines are quite scary sometime. But for investors, it has been a good year and we see many reasons to think 2024 should be strong as well.

We want to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving week and hope you can get some rest, great food, and time with family and friends.

Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade — Time to Feast

Thanksgiving kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns. November-January is the year’s best consecutive 3-month span (2024 STA p 149). Then there’s the January Effect (2024 STA p 112 & 114) of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December.

And of course, the “Santa Claus Rally,” (2024 STA p 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Our good friend and renowned technician and options guru Larry McMillan of the Options Strategist opened our eyes to this trade and runs it with options starting on the day before Thanksgiving.

Since 1950, S&P 500 is up 79.45% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.57%. Russell 2000 is up 77.27% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.19%.


Happy Anniversary
Mon, Nov 20, 2023

It’s been the worst of times and the best of times for the Nasdaq 100, which marked the two-year anniversary of its record high from 11/19/21 over the weekend. After falling over 35% from the record high through the October 2022 low, the Nasdaq 100 has since rallied over 50%, leaving it down just over 5% from its record high. Like a QB scrambling all over the field only to end up getting sacked a few yards short of the line of scrimmage, the Nasdaq 100 has expended a ton of energy with little to show for it over the last two years.



While the Nasdaq 100 itself is down just over 5% from its record high, stocks in the index are down slightly more than that since 11/19/21 with an average decline of 6.3%. Among individual stocks, though, there have been some big winners and losers. Starting with the winners, the table below lists the 20 Nasdaq 100 stocks that have rallied 20% or more since the November 2021 peak. Leading the way higher, shares of Vertex Pharma (VRTX) have rallied just shy of 92%, followed by Broadcom (AVGO), PACCAR (PCAR), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), which are all up over 50%. We were surprised to see that while NVDA has been one of the top-performing stocks this year, since the 2021 peak, its 49.5% gain ranks only as the seventh-best performance. Lastly, in terms of sector breakdown, Technology leads the way with six followed by Consumer Discretionary with four, and Health Care and Industrials with three each.



While there are just twenty stocks in the Nasdaq 100 that are up 20% since its peak two years ago, 21 of the index's components are down 30% or more. We list them in the table below. Topping the list of losers, shares of Lucid (LCIC) have lost their charge with a decline of over 90%. Behind LCID, though, there are another nine stocks that have been cut at least in half, including pandemic darlings Zoom Video (ZM) and Moderna (MRNA). Some of the more notable names on the list include Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), and QUALCOMM (QCOM). Finally, at the sector level, just as they topped the list of winners, both Technology and Consumer Discretionary also top the list of losers with seven and five components, respectively. The only other sectors with more than one component were Health Care (4) and Communication Services (3).

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2023-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 11.24.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 11.24.23-

 

​

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for November 24th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11/26/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums December 2023 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market direction vote and stock picks for December of this year 2023!

StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (11/27-12/1) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (11/27) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 11.27.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 11.27.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 11.28.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 11.28.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 11.29.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 11.29.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 11.30.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 11.30.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 12.1.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 12.1.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($CRWD $SNOW $CRM $ZS $MRVL $WDAY $ULTA $INTU $OKTA $PDD $PATH $SPLK $KR $DELL $SNPS $FL $DLTR $PSTG $HPE $NTAP $FTCH $FIVE $AMBA $VSCO $BNS $AZEK $IOT $ASO $SDRL $TD $ESTC $PD $DOMO $BIG $PVH $NTNX $BMO $CRNC $NAT $BBW $WOOF $LZB $TITN $RY $LESL $NOAH $ARWR $NNOX $ZUO)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning November 27th, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, November the 27th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 11/27/23 - Heading into the Home Stretch
Mon, Nov 27, 2023

There are just 24 trading days left in the year, but as we head into the home stretch of trading for the year, it’s hard to imagine a quieter start to the week of trading as there is very little in the way of corporate or economic news to speak of this morning. The only economic report on the calendar today is New Home Sales at 10 AM, but as the week progresses, the pace of reports will pick up steam. One change though is that even as Friday is the first Friday of December, because of where the reference week for November falls on the calendar, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report won’t be released until the following Friday (12/8). Outside of the US, it’s also been relatively quiet, but the tone is generally to the downside with modest losses across the board.

November and December have historically been one of the stronger times of year for the market, so as the calendar transitions from the Thanksgiving to Christmas/New Year’s holiday seasons, this morning we looked at market seasonality in the first full week of trading after Thanksgiving. This is usually (although not always) a time of year that includes the last days of November and the first day(s) of December.

The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 from the close on the Friday after Thanksgiving through the close on the following Friday. For all years since 1945, the S&P 500’s median gain during the post-Thanksgiving week has been a modest gain of 0.19% with positive returns 55% of the time; that's slightly weaker than the 0.24% median gain for all five trading day periods since 1945. In years when the S&P 500 was already up at least 15% YTD, the median gain was an even weaker 0.16%. Over the long term, it appears as though bulls come out of the Thanksgiving holiday season a little hungover and sluggish following all the festivities.

While the period after Thanksgiving has been weak for the entire post-WWII period, as you can see in the chart, performance in more recent history has been stronger. In the last twenty years, for example, the S&P 500’s median gain during the current trading week has been 0.44% with positive returns 70% of the time.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, November 27th, 2023.

 

morning guys! hope you all had an awesome thanksgiving holiday weekend!

i just very quickly wanted to bring this up to the forefront with you all.

there appears to be some issues with this site's ssl certificates once again. which is falsely telling the server that it's offline when it is actually online.

i'll see if i can correct this issue today if i have time...but truthfully i'm going to be insanely busy for the foreseeable future (hence my very limited time on nowadays).

the solution for now is to use the non-ssl version of this site which does not use "https".

simply going to http://www.stonkforums.com should automatically re-direct you to the non-ssl version of this site.

or by using this direct link here:

http://stonkforums.myvnc.com

that version will ALWAYS be working no matter what.

i know some of you like @stock1234 rely on the ssl version (https) to work for accessing the site at like coffee shops, etc.

i'm not abandoning the ssl version here! but, there does appear to be some issues with it this AM at least. where it intermittently goes offline then back online again.

hang tight! i really do apologize greatly for any inconvenience with this.

hope to have some fix soon.

have a great week guys!!