Stock Market Today: March 4th - 8th, 2024

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, March the 7th, 2024!

 

Good Thursday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 3/7/24 - Proper Context
Thu, Mar 7, 2024

Yesterday’s bounce continued to a second morning as both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were in the green ahead of the just-released reports on weekly jobless claims, Q4 productivity, and Q4 unit labor costs at 8:30. Productivity numbers were revised slightly higher, Unit Labor Costs were lower than expected, and jobless claims were just slightly higher than expected.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mostly lower with Japan leading the way down as the Nikkei fell over 1% as the yen rallied on speculation that the BoJ would abandon its negative policy rate. What Asia taketh away, though, Europe has giveth, and the tone there is more positive as the STOXX 600 rallies 0.4% with Spain leading the way with a gain of 0.6%. In Germany, Factory Orders dropped 11.3%, which was nearly twice the 6% decline that was expected. The ECB just announced its latest policy decision, and as expected, they left rates on hold. You can read more about it in the full Morning Lineup report.

In discussions about inflation this week, we’ve heard multiple references to rising prices at the pump as a sign that inflation is poised to take another leg higher. Based on AAA’s tracking of the national average price of a gallon of gas, prices have taken a turn higher. In mid-January, the price was as low as $3.07 per gallon, but as of today, it’s up to just under $3.40 per gallon and at the highest level since early November.



While the rise in gas prices looks like a concern in isolation, proper context is in order. What if we told you that gas prices almost always rise in the early months of a new year? Going back to 2005, there have only been three years when prices were down on a year-to-date basis through 3/7, and the average YTD change is 8.3%. Given that history, this year’s 9.2% increase doesn’t seem so extreme or worrying.

Look at the chart below where we compare this year’s change in gas prices to a composite of the average YTD change for all years since 2005. They track each other perfectly. Gas prices have increased this year, but they nearly always do at this time of year. When prices start to decline after Memorial Day, as almost always occurs at that time of year, do you think the people crying today about higher gas prices being a canary for higher inflation will also be screaming about a ‘deflationary’ warning then? Something tells us, probably not.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, March 7th, 2024.

 

here is a quick preview of next week's notable earnings releases courtesy of reddit's wallstreetbets:

have yourself a terrific weekend ahead guys!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under half an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, March the 8th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 3/8/24 - 15 for 15
Fri, Mar 8, 2024

It's a quiet morning in the markets ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls report that is just hitting the tapes as we send this, and that will likely dictate much of the market's move to close out the week. Recapping the numbers that just hit, the headline reading came in stronger than expected (275K vs 200K), but the last two months were revised down by nearly 170K. As a result, the Unemployment Rate jumped to 3.9% vs expectations for a level of 3.7%. Average weekly hours were right in line with forecasts, but average hourly earnings were weaker than expected. While the headline was a beat, it was offset by some downside revisions and the highest unemployment rate since July 2022. The immediate reaction in equity futures was a jump, but they have already pulled in from the initial spike higher

If you didn't get a chance to catch yesterday's CNBC interview, you can watch it here.

It’s always darkest before dawn, and unless you’ve been around as long or longer than Warren Buffett, fifteen years ago tomorrow, March 9, 2009, was as dark of a day in the financial world as you’ve ever seen. A refresher of the news and events that led up to that day are recapped in the chart below, but they don’t even fully reflect the tension of those days where every morning was a different headline leading one to wonder if all they had done to save over the years would disappear in to thin air. Buffett, never known as someone to exaggerate for a headline commented in a March 9, 2009 interview on CNBC that “the Fed did some things in September when it happened that were vital in keeping the place going. I mean, when the--if they hadn’t insured money market accounts and, in effect, commercial paper, you know, you and I would be meeting at McDonald’s this morning.” Later in the interview, he added “the world almost did come to a stop.”



Fifteen years later, the chart of the S&P 500 and sentiment surrounding it looks much different. The market is at record highs fueled by hopes for a new era of Ai enhanced productivity, and sentiment is near some of its most bullish levels in years. Another famous saying from Buffett is to “be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”. We wouldn’t go nearly as far as to say that the current environment is a complete 180-degree turn from March 9, 2009, but don’t expect to see annualized gains of 15% over the next 15 years either.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, March 8th, 2024.