Stock Market Today: March 13th - 17th, 2023

Morning Lineup - 3/14/23 - The Number You've All Been Waiting For
Tue, Mar 14, 2023

Futures have been rallying this morning as bond yields move higher as investors breathe a sigh of relief due to the fact that there were no additional bank blowups overnight. Regional banks are seeing the most strength as a stock like First Republic (FRC) is up over 60% in the pre-market. That's great if you bought the stock yesterday, but it's still down sharply from where it closed last Friday, let alone where it was coming into the year.

The big number of the morning is obviously the February CPI and that reading came in right in line with forecasts at the headline level (0.4%). Ex Food and Energy, the reading was 0.5% which was slightly higher than expected (0.4%). On a y/y basis, both headline (6.0%) and core (5.5%) were right in line with forecasts. Markets were worried about another hot reading, so the immediate reaction has been a modest bounce in equity futures.

While the moves have been the most pronounced in the Treasury market and regional banks stocks, volatility and extreme reversals have been showing up all over global financial markets in the last several days. Take the equity market of Japan. Last week, the TOPIX finally broke above multi-month resistance to new 52-week highs on Thursday. From a technical standpoint, the action looked like a textbook breakout with well-defined support at former resistance near the 2,000 level. That was Thursday.

In the three days that followed, the TOPX has been down at least 1.5% every day for a total decline of 6%. And that support around the 2,000 level? It was more like Swiss cheese. In last night’s trading, the TOPIX also sliced right through its 50-day moving average (DMA) although it did find some support at the 200-DMA.



Going all the way back to the mid-1980s, the last four trading days for the TOPIX represent just the second time that the index hit a 52-week high and then followed that up with three straight declines of at least 1%. The other period was in October 2003 when the TOPIX hit a 52-week high on 10/20 and then followed that high up with daily declines of 1.1%, 1.8%, and 5.3%, respectively for a total decline of 8.8%. During that correction, the TOPIX’s total decline from that 52-week high pullback was 14.5% before the index went on to recover and resume its upward trend.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, March 14th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, March the 15th, 2023!

 

Good Wednesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 3/15/23 - Et tu, Credit Suisse
Wed, Mar 15, 2023

Futures are down sharply this morning, but surprisingly it has nothing directly to do with issues facing a US regional bank. Today's weakness is due to a 30% plunge in Credit Suisse as its largest shareholder said it will no longer put additional capital into the bank. Dow futures are down over 600, the S&P 500 is indicated to open down 1.7% and the Nasdaq is holding up better with a drop of 1.4%. It's been a busy morning for economic data as PPI missed expectations, Empire Manufacturing plunged, and Retail Sales were in line with forecasts. European stocks are down well over 2%, and Treasury yields are plunging. The only risk asset rallying on the day, at this point, is bitcoin.

As we type this, the two-year yield is down over 20 basis points (bps) and below 4% again in what can only be characterized as a turbulent move. If you were on an airplane, you’d be asking for another one of those white bags that they keep in the seat pocket in front of you. Today’s move is on pace to be the fifth straight day that the yield has moved more than 20 bps (up or down) in a single day. To put that move in perspective, the only other time that the two-year yield has had as many 20 bps moves in succession over the last 45 years was in December 1980. Outside of the early 1980s, there has never been another time when the yield on the two-year even moved 20 bps for three consecutive days. Two-year Treasuries have always been one of the most stable assets across the financial spectrum, but they’ve failed on that front lately.



The current moves in the two-year treasury stand out even more when you consider the actual level of yields. Sure, the last year or so has seen yields rise to the highest level since 2007, but in the early 1980s, which was the last time there was as much volatility in two-year yields as there is now, yields were more than double where they are now. Double. The Fed has gotten a lot wrong in their forecasts over the last few years, but one point where Powell was spot on was last August when he said that fighting inflation will “bring some pain”. He should have just come out and said, "Beware the Ides of March."

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, March 15th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 2 hours from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, March the 16th, 2023!

 

Good Thursday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 3/16/23 - Better Data Ahead of ECB
Thu, Mar 16, 2023

The quote above could have easily been made this week, but it was actually fifteen years ago today when Bear Stearns, the fifth largest US investment bank, avoided bankruptcy in what was an arranged sale to JP Morgan for $2. While a number of other smaller players in the subprime housing business had already folded, Bear was the first of the major dominoes to go. The emergency takeover of Bear staunched the wound for a time, but it was only a matter of weeks before the cockroaches on bank balance sheets came out from the walls. We all know what happened from there. 15 years to the day later, the question every investor is trying to answer is whether SVB Bank is this generation’s Bear Stearns or just a headline that most will forget all about a year from now.

Futures are mixed this morning as the S&P 500 and Dow are indicated modestly lower while the Nasdaq is in positive territory. European stocks are bouncing ahead of the ECB decision at 9:15 Eastern and on the news that Credit Suisse has taken a $54 billion loan from the Swiss National Bank to improve its liquidity position. US equities aren’t seeing the same lift since they rallied after Europe’s close yesterday on rumors of the SNB loan that European stocks are rallying on now.

The economic calendar is busy this morning as Jobless Claims, Import Prices, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the Philly Fed all just hit the tape. Jobless Claims on both an initial and continuing basis were lower than expected, Import Prices dropped less than expected, and Building Permits and Housing Starts both came in significantly better than expected. The only report that missed forecasts was the Philly Fed manufacturing which came in at -23.2. Surprisingly, there has been little reaction (so far) in equity futures or the treasury market as attention will now shift to the ECB decision.

What started as a bank run on a regional bank in California last week quickly spread to regional and money center banks around the country and then this week across the Atlantic to European banks. But the weakness in equities hasn’t been confined to just the Financials sector. In the US, the Financials sector is down just over 10% over the last five trading days, but other cyclical sectors have also been pounded as Energy is down 9%, Materials is down 7.5%, and the Industrials sector is down over 5%. Around the world too, equities are down over the last week.

The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the performance of international regional ETFs. Over the last week, every single one of them is down with declines ranging from a loss of 1.42% for the Global 100 ETF (IOO) to a loss of 7.6% for the Latin America 40 ETF (ILF). Over the last three years, we’ve become all too familiar with the process of disease and virus transmission, and what we’ve seen over the last week is the very definition of contagion. Whether or not it’s just a cold or something worse like the flu will become more apparent in the coming weeks.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, March 16th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour away from the cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, March the 17th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 3/17/23 - An Irish Morning
Fri, Mar 17, 2023

President Eisenhower once said that everyone is Irish on St. Patrick’s Day, and most investors probably consider themselves Irish today. Even on a good day like yesterday, they can’t shake the feeling that there’s still more pain to come, especially heading into another weekend. Maybe that just comes with the territory after a year-long bear market, a war in Europe, and the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle since the early eighties. But a banking crisis is only the newest entry on to the growing list of worries.

Futures are in the red this morning and have been drifting lower all morning ahead of a busy day for economic data. European stocks opened higher, and traded up over 1%, but are now in the red. At 9:15, we’ll get updates on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February, and then at 10 AM, we’ll close out the week with Leading Indicators and Michigan Confidence. Leading indicators have been in recessionary territory for months now, and in the Michigan report, the key area of focus will be inflation expectations following the NY Fed’s update earlier this week which showed a significant decline in one- and three-year inflation expectations.

Given it’s St Patrick’s Day, it’s an appropriate time to highlight the stocks deepest in the green this year that investors would be the luckiest to have in their portfolios. The table below lists the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 that are up the most YTD. Topping the list, NVIDIA (NVDA) and Meta (META) have already rallied 70% in the first two and a half months of the year. After these two stocks, eight others are up over 40%, and all 20 are up over 25% on the year. Looking at where each of these stocks is trading relative to their trading ranges, most are at overbought levels, but there are a handful like Tesla (TSLA), Warner Bros (WBD), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) that are trading relatively close to or even below their 50-day moving averages.

Usually, when you look at a list of best (or worst) performing stocks in an index, smaller names dominate the list as they are the most prone to large swings in either direction. What stands out about this list is the fact that some of the best performers are also among the largest stocks in the index. The two top performers – NVDA and META – both have market caps of more than $500 billion, and when you take Tesla (TSLA) into account, three of the top four have market caps of greater than $500 billion. Lastly, of the top ten performers, half of them have market caps of over $100 billion. In other words, these are some big leprechauns!

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, March 17th, 2023.

 

testing 123... don't mind me here guys just running a quick test in here.

 

nice. seems to be working great.

so i just added these 2 new tag charting commands into the board today.

[ otc ] TICKER [ / otc ]

will pull up an otc chart from profitspi.com

...and also added a futures charting tag command:

[ futures ] FUTSTICKER [ / futures ]

will pull a 5 min. intraday futures chart from finviz

 

oh and btw here is the full list of tag charting commands y'all's can pull into a post in case any of you were wondering what they are:

i had totally forgot that i had added tag commands for the other charting time frames like the intraday, weekly and monthly