Stock Market Today: March 11th - 15th, 2024

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of March 11th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(T.B.A.)

What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

New Record Highs For Bitcoin & Gold As Dollar Suffers Worst Week In 3 Months
FRIDAY, MAR 08, 2024 - 04:00 PM

US macro data serially disappointed this week...



Source: Bloomberg

'Bad' news was good news for the doves and the market's expectations for rate-cuts in 2024 ticked back up to 4 rate-cuts (from 3)...



Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid on the week with the belly outperforming the wings...



Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield dropped down to almost 4.0% (closing below its 50DMA) at its lowest in almost six weeks...



Source: Bloomberg

But, while yields were lower on the week, stocks were more mixed with Nasdaq down on the week as a red-end to the week for mega-cap tech spoiled the party...



Mag7 stocks ended the week lower after fading from today's gains...



Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps outperformed, The Dow lagged, and the S&P 500 desperately tried to close green on the week (but failed)...



If it had closed green, that would have been the 17th positive week in the last 19 - the greatest streak in stocks since 1964...



'Most shorted' stocks were squeezed hard at the open today, into the green for the week, before tumbling back to the lows of the week...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar is down for the sixth straight day, ending the worst week in three months for the greenback...



Source: Bloomberg

And dollar weakness helped spur gains in gold which soared to a new record high just shy of $2200 today. Gold is up for 8 straight days - the longest winning streak since July 2020...



Source: Bloomberg

Golds gains continued despite outflows from Gold ETFs (as Bitcoin ETF inflows soared)...



And in the meantime, cryptos roared higher this week with Bitcoin topping $70,000 (a new record high) for the first time...



Source: Bloomberg

But, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin on the week (+14% vs +10%), hitting $4000 for the first time since



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended the week lower (at the low end of its recent range)...



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this is fucking nuts...yes a trillion dollars added YTD...



Source: Bloomberg

And this...



Source: Bloomberg

It's fine!

 

Semis Drop the Mic
Fri, Mar 8, 2024

The rally in semiconductors is starting to run out of superlatives to describe it. Just when you think it has to take a breather, it turns around and rallies another few percent. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed more than 17% above its 50-day moving average and 36% above its 200-DMA. Regarding the 50-DMA, it hasn’t even traded down to within 3% of that level in the last 80 trading days. In fact, the only time it has even traded within 4% of its 50-DMA since mid-November was on 12/6 when it closed 3.99% above that level.



The chart below shows streaks where the SOX closed at least 3% above its 50-DMA, and the current streak ranks as the longest since the days coming out of Covid and just the fifth in the index’s history since 1994. The longest streak ended at 143 trading days in August 1995. In looking at the four prior streaks, once they reached the 80-day point, the forward one-year performance of the SOX was mixed with a median gain of just 3.1% and positive returns just twice.



Yesterday was a monumental day for the semiconductor sector because it was also the first time in its history that the index closed at a higher price than the S&P 500. It got close in 1999 but never quite got there. The rally in semis over the last few years has been nothing short of amazing, but the slope of the ascent in the ratio (i.e. relative strength of semis) back in 1999 and early 2000 was practically a straight line!



As mentioned above, the SOX is currently trading more than 36% above its 200-DMA, and within the index, there are some incredibly wide spreads. As shown in the chart below, Nvidia (NVDA) closed more than 90% above its 200-DMA yesterday, and another three stocks -- Advanced Micro (AMD), Coherent (COHR), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) -- are all more than 50% above their 200-DMAs.



In the case of NVDA, 90% above the 200-DMA???? A lot of traders looking at a spread that wide would probably start thinking about shorting a stock. We’d be the first to agree that a spread that wide seems unsustainable in most cases. However, you only have to go back 10 months to find the last time NVDA was more than 100% above its 200-DMA, and back then the price was under $400, or 60% below current levels! One thing to keep in mind regarding NVDA is that its rally has been described as a once-in-a-generation type of gain, and while these types of moves don't come around all the time, as we noted earlier today, NVDA's performance over the last 350 trading days since its 2022 lows still trails the gain Tesla (TSLA) experienced coming out of the Covid-crash lows.



The Ludicrous List
Thu, Mar 7, 2024

Essentially the "stock du jour" of any day of the past year has been anything related to AI. The poster child has been NVIDIA (NVDA) with downright gaudy gains lifting the stock to a market cap of over $2 trillion. Although earnings have been impressive and to a degree supportive of those gains in the stock price, the stock currently trades with a price to sales ratio of a lofty 35.94. As we first noted in last Thursday's Closer alongside the debut of our AI Basket, including NVDA there are currently around 50 stocks that have doubled year-over-year, possess a market cap of at least $500 million, and have a price to sales ratio of 10 or more. In the charts below, we show the number of stocks fitting these criteria each month over the past 30 years. As shown, while there are currently a decent number of these stocks trading with "ludicrous" multiples and gains, the count is far below what it was at the time of the Dot Com era or even as recently as 2021. With that being said, the collective market cap of the current list of names far surpasses those prior peaks. The major caveat to this, of course, is that nearly half of that is all NVDA. Removing the other three stocks making this list with the largest market caps—Broadcom (AVGO), Eli Lilly (LLY), and AMD (AMD)—the collective market cap of this screen of stocks hardly stands out.

In all, currently there are a decent but not unprecedented number of stocks trading at high valuations. While the large collective market cap of these names (and hence their impact on market-cap weighted indices like the S&P 500) can perhaps be viewed as more worrisome, that is more a story for a handful of names rather than a broad market frothiness.



In the table below we show the 49 stocks that are currently on the Ludicrous List. Again, these are stocks that have doubled over the past year, have market caps above $500 million, and a price to sales ratio above ten. Outside of the four largest of these stocks by market cap mentioned above, there is no stock with a market cap above $100 billion. Additionally, the bulk of these names are in the Health Care industry; more specifically the traditionally more speculative Pharmaceutical and Biotech industry.



Overwhelmingly Bullish, Even for All Time Highs
Thu, Mar 7, 2024

Not only has the S&P 500 returned to new highs but sentiment is also making a push higher. As shown below, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed more than half of respondents surveyed responded as bullish. At 51.7%, bullish sentiment is now slightly below the multi-year high from December 21st (52.9%).



While a majority of respondents are reporting as bullish, less than a quarter are bearish. This week, bearish sentiment fell to 21.8% which was a half percentage point uptick versus the previous week.



Regardless of the increase in bears, bulls netted a much larger increase resulting in the bull-bear spread to rise to 29.9. Again, that indicates the most bullish sentiment since December.



Given the S&P 500 is currently trading at record highs, we wanted to check in on how sentiment currently stacks up versus past record closes for the S&P. As shown, it looks a bit more optimistic than normal given where the market is trading as bullish sentiment has historically averaged a reading of 41% when the S&P 500 was at record highs. While the gap between the historical average and now is less dramatic, bearish sentiment likewise shows greater optimism now than in the past.



Finally, we would note that it is not only the AAII survey which is showing high levels of optimism. Factoring in other weekly sentiment surveys, the Investors Intelligence survey saw the highest number of bulls since July 2021 and the NAAIM Exposure Index showed active investment managers added long exposure to equities in the most recent week. Putting them all together into our Sentiment Composite, aggregate investor sentiment now ranks in the 98th percentile of all periods since data began in 2006 and a hair below those from last December. Before that, the only periods with similarly elevated levels of sentiment were December 2010, December 2013, early 2015, around the new year of 2018, the end of 2020, and the spring of 2021.



16 Charts (and Tables) to Know This Election Year


“Americans will always do the right thing – after exhausting all other possibilities.” -Winston Churchill

With Super Tuesday now in the books, the fact that we have a presidential election coming this November is getting very real. Although we aren’t going to predict who will be our next president, we are going to share many of our favorite charts and tables to know this election year.

Without further ado, here are 16 charts to know this election year.

The best year for stocks is a pre-election year (like 2023), while midterm years (like 2022) are the worst. Election years gain 7.3% on average, but are higher a very impressive 83.3% of the time.



“I don’t make jokes. I watch the government and report the facts.” -Will Rogers

Be aware the majority of that 7.3% gain tends to happen later in the year, as stocks are historically down for the year in March of an election year. After solid mid-year gains, the S&P 500 has stalled, on average, in the immediate pre-election months when uncertainty is at its highest, before rallying after the election into the end of the year as markets gain clarity on what they have to work with, both in the White House and in Congress. But gains are steadier throughout the year (after a slow first quarter) when a president is up for re-election (see below).



Breaking down the four-year presidential cycle by quarters shows the first quarter of an election year usually isn’t very strong, while the best quarters are the fourth quarter of a midterm year and early in a pre-election year, exactly how things played out this time.



“The problem with political jokes is they get elected.” -Henry Cate VI

Historically, stocks have done much better in a pre-election year under a president in their first term (up more than 20% on average), while midterm years for a new president do much worse (virtually flat). That played out this time, with stocks down big in 2022 and bouncing back big in 2023. What matters now is election years, which have seen stocks do much better when a president is up for re-election versus a lame duck president.



Breaking this down more showed that stocks gained during an election year the past 10 times when the president was up for re-election. Not to be outdone, pre-election years have been higher nine of the past 10 times a president was up for re-election.



The majority of those 12.2% gains an election year of a first-term president indeed tended to happen later in the year though, as we show below.



“George Washington was the only president who didn’t blame the previous administration.” -Source unknown

Here’s another way to show how election years do based on whether the president is up for re-election or we have a lame duck president. It’s pretty clear things go better when a president is up for re-election.



“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” -Winston Churchill

Interestingly, a negative return in a midterm year (like we saw in 2022) has been followed by a higher pre-election and election year every single time. That is 17 out of the past 17 pre-election and election years higher after a negative midterm year. Do you really think this will be the year this amazing streak ends? We don’t and are looking for 18 out of 18.



Another angle on this is after a 20% gain in a pre-election year, we’ve had a higher election year the past seven times going back to 1950. Also, look at how normal it is to have red in a midterm year, then a big bounce the following year. If this tendency continues to play out, it’ll be more good news for 2024.



How have stocks done under President Biden? Don’t shoot the messenger here, but the Dow was up 21.4% his first three years in office, which ranks 11th out of the past 21 Presidents using Dow data back to 1900.



Another popular question is how stocks do based on which party is in the White House. Now is when people might want to throw something at me, but it is what it is. Historically, stocks have done better with a Democratic president versus a Republican in power. As with many of these numbers, we would take this with a grain of salt. Despite the tendency to view the president as responsible for the economy, the president alone often has a relatively small impact compared to broader economic forces. Do you think the fact that 10 of the last 11 recessions started under a Republican president is because a Republican was in the White House? We don’t.



“If the opposite of ‘pro’ is ‘con’, then the opposite of progress must be Congress.” -Sam Stovall

Who is in the White House can matter, but we’ve found the make-up of Congress might matter more. In fact, a split Congress has been much better for investors, as stocks incredibly have gained the past 13 times we’ve had a divided Congress! Maybe the best Washington is one that can’t get anything done? Or maybe it’s that what does get done requires compromise and common cause and is not just political overspending to reward constituents. Those checks and balances the founders put in place might be even more important than we realized.



Speaking of which, let’s not forget what friend of Carson Investment Research Sam Stovall once told us. If the opposite of ‘pro’ is ‘con,’ then the opposite of progress must be Congress! That’s a joke you can use all year now.

Here are all the possible scenarios based on the White House and make-up of Congress.



The way we like to put it, it isn’t about red or blue; it’s about green, as you can see below.



“If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.” -Mark Twain

How investors feel going to the polls always matters, as we’ve found that if there was a recession in the two years before an election then a president up for reelection usually loses. And if there was no recession, they would usually win. In fact, this has worked every time since Calvin Coolidge way back in 1924, who was reelected despite a recession in the previous two years. But then Coolidge had only become president in August 1923 when President Warren Harding died unexpectedly, and the economy was already rebounding at that point.



“Bipartisan usually means larger than usual deception is being carried out.” -George Carlin

Lastly, how stocks do the three months before an election also has some predictive ability. If stocks are up, the incumbent party usually wins and if they are down, the incumbent party usually loses. This didn’t work in 2020, but it has worked 20 out of the last 24 elections.



“In America, anyone can become president. That’s the problem.” -George Carlin

In conclusion, we’ve seen many investors let their pollical beliefs get in the way of their investment choices, to their detriment many times. Some people didn’t like President Obama, but if they let that dictate how they invested they missed big gains. Likewise, some people didn’t like President Trump, but if they got out of the market because of it they also missed big gains. And currently President Biden’s approval rating is quite low, but stocks have soared and are at all-time highs. The bottom line is a strong economy is what will drive stock gains, not who is or isn’t in the White House.

Semis in Uncharted Territory
Wed, Mar 6, 2024

The unbelievable rally in semiconductors resumed this morning as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has erased all of Tuesday's 2%+ decline and is just below its record high from Monday. As of this writing, the SOX is more than 14% above its 50-day moving average, and the closest it has been to that average since early November is 3.99%.



While the SOX has been making record highs for a number of weeks now, in just the last few days, it also reached another milestone for the first time in over two decades. The chart below shows the ratio in the price of the SOX to the S&P 500 since 1994. During the dot-com bubble, the ratio peaked at 0.9553 in March 2000 before crashing down to less than 0.22 in late 2008. In the 15+ years since that low, the ratio has been steadily digging itself out of that hole, and it finally saw the light of day last Friday, March 1st. With the SOX just recently crossing 5,000 and the S&P 500 trading at around 5,100, we're almost to the point where the SOX could overtake the S&P 500 in terms of its price level.



While the SOX is up just under 20% on the year, the wealth hasn't been spread evenly across its components. At the top of the list, NVIDIA (NVDA) has rallied nearly 80% while Coherent (COHR) is up over 50%. Behind those two leaders, another eight stocks in the SOX are outperforming the index so far this year. However, that means another 20 components or two-thirds of the index have underperformed the index year to date. It may be a good year for semis at the index level, but try telling that to the third of the index that's not only trailing the gains of the index but also down for the year.



5 Things that Are Unlikely to Change Irrespective of Who Wins The 2024 Election


The 2024 Presidential Election is looking like a toss-up, as is control of Congress, although Republicans are solidly favored to flip the Senate. At the same time, the candidates haven’t really discussed their post-election policy preferences in any detail beyond just broad statements. There’re clearly a lot of things that will depend on who wins the election and control of Congress. However, I want to focus on five things that are likely to continue irrespective of who wins the election.

Defense Spending Is Likely to Rise
Defense spending is currently just 3.6% of GDP, which is close to the lowest on record. It’s very likely that this will only increase in the years ahead, in contrast to what happened in the 1990s or in the early 2010s.



In fact, production of defense and space equipment has been ramping up recently. It was up 14% year over year as of January and is currently running 11% above 2019 levels. This will be a tailwind for the economy.



The US Is Likely to Remain the Largest Oil Producer in the World
US oil production has been hitting new records month after month, rising to 13.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2023, which is 10% above its December 2022 level. Prior to the pandemic, production had peaked just under 13 million bpd. Production has now doubled since 2011.

US oil production raises a lot of hackles on both sides of the aisle. But the reality is that oil production has surged under the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations. The couple of times it pulled back was in 2015-2016 and in 2020, in both cases due to economic stress rather than any policy coming from the White House. Oil production in the US is going to mostly depend on the economy and the worldwide demand for oil, rather than who’s president.



The Budget Deficit Is Likely to Remain High
Irrespective of who’s president, or who controls Congress, the path of least resistance seems to be more spending, which means the deficit is likely to remain high. The deficit was about 6% of GDP in 2023, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects it’s going to remain close to that mark over the next decade.



Here’s the thing: It’s very likely to actually be more than the numbers in the charts above. CBO assumes parts of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) that President Trump signed into law in 2017 will “sunset” (expire). The TCJA had two parts: Corporate tax cuts, which were mostly permanent, and individual tax cuts, which are set to sunset at the end of 2025, which means individual taxes are set to jump higher on January 1, 2026. Expect a lot of market anxiety as we get closer to that deadline, since it’s a big “economic cliff” that will immediately hit consumer spending.

Safe to say, neither party is likely to let that happen (remember, 2026 is also a midterm election year). Fromer President Trump has already said he’ll renew all the tax cuts. President Biden has said tax cuts will be renewed for households earning less than $400,000, while expiring for wealthy individuals. He also wants to raise the corporate tax from 21% to 28% (it was 35% pre-TCJA), but this is likely to face stiff opposition from his own party, let alone Republicans (who are very likely to control the Senate).

In any case, the budget deficit is likely to increase. Realistically, cutting entitlement benefits, especially Social Security or Medicare, is the only way to make a big dent in the deficit. Together, they make up more than a third of the federal budget, and spending on these is only projected to rise. Defense and non-defense discretionary spending make up under 30% of the budget. For perspective, only if these were cut to zero in 2023 would the federal government have run a slight surplus.



At the same time, a large majority of Americans don’t want Congress to touch entitlements, and politicians know that. President Biden and former President Trump have already said they’re not going to touch Social Security or Medicare. There ends any realistic path to “tackle” the deficit.



Interest Rates Are Likely to Remain High
It seems logical to go from high budget deficits to high interest rates. In fact, interest costs for the federal government have spiked recently, rising to 3.7% of GDP. This is higher than what we saw over the 2010-2019 period, and the historical average of 3.1%. However, interest costs averaged more in the 1980s and 1990s, and the economy did fine. In fact, between 1995 and 1999, interest costs averaged 4.1% of GDP.



The reality is that interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), at least short-term rates. But even longer-term rates depend on Fed policy expectations. And rates are likely to stay higher because the economy is likely to be stronger over the next few years. Even if we do see a recession, it seems unlikely that the Fed will lower rates to almost zero percent again.

The other side of higher rates, and higher costs for the Federal government, is that American savers are the biggest beneficiary. American savers are now getting more than 5% on cash, and they like it. In fact, 41% of US government debt is held by the US private sector – households, nonprofits, and businesses. That’s up from just 24% in 2014. On the other hand, foreigners hold just 23% of federal debt, down from 33% in 2014.



The Dollar Is Likely to Remain the World’s Reserve Currency
There’s always talk about the US dollar (USD) losing its dominant currency status, and the chatter usually rises during election season. To put it plain and simple, the USD’s dominant role is unlikely to end any time soon for three reasons:

First, the world has confidence in the US, and thereby the dollar. And this isn’t just about being the “cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry.” The US has several structural advantages. We have the world’s deepest and most liquid financial markets, thanks to the size and strength of the US economy. We generally emphasize open trade and unrestricted capital flows relative to other countries. Finally, we have a strong rule of law and property rights, and a history of enforcing them.



Second, the USD is the world’s most popular medium of exchange when it comes to trade, and even trade not involving the US. On top of that, foreigners like to borrow in dollars as well, and even more so over the last decade. Of the total amount borrowed in foreign currency, dollar-based borrowing accounts for 62% of it, up from 56% in 2012. Network effects can be very hard to dislodge.



Third, the US is “willing” to maintain massive trade deficits. Foreigners sell a lot of stuff to Americans, and they get USD in return. Instead of using all those USD to buy US manufactured goods, they hoard it. Or buy US financial assets with it, including Treasuries, which are the safest, most liquid securities in the world (for the reasons mentioned above). This is why there are so many dollars, and Treasuries, held by the rest of the world, and the dynamic is unlikely to shift any time soon.





So, there you go. Amidst all the noise you’re going to hear about the 2024 elections, these are five key things that are likely to stay on their current path. Of course, central to all this is the state of the economy, and right now we’re optimistic about where it’s going. Markets are too, amidst rising profitability.

Typical March Performance: Second Half Better

Over the recent 21 years March has been a decent performing month for the market. Average gains over the period range from a low of 0.78% by DJIA to a respectable 1.40% by NASDAQ. March typically opens positively but selling pressure and weakness tend to follow quickly thereafter with choppy trading until around mid-month. From here on the market generally rallied to finish out the month. End-of-Q1 portfolio adjustments have contributed to additional choppy trading during the last three or four trading days of March. Election year average performance is influenced by across-the-board double-digit losses in 2020, but March’s pattern is similar with weakness in the first half and modestly improved trading in the second half.

Here’s Why We Believe the Economy is Doing Fine


Happy March 1st! Yesterday was Leap Day and we threw an extra special Facts vs Feelings event to celebrate: a 4 hour live stream with some of the top experts in the world of investing and finance, including Dan Ives (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wedbush Securities), Cathie Wood (Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at ARK Investment Management, Libby Cantrill (Head of US Public Policy, Managing Director at PIMCO), and Neil Dutta (Partner, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research). Ryan and I had a lot of fun, and it took a village behind the scenes to put it on (thank you to all the folks at Carson Group). If you missed it, keep an eye out for individual Facts vs Feelings episodes with each of our guests, which will be released over the next few weeks.

If I had to find a common thread across all our guests, it was a general sense of optimism around the economy and markets. Neil Dutta put it succinctly when we asked him what the story of the economy was right now. His response: “The economy is fine.” He went on to add that investors have been so focused on looking for risks over the last decade, that a big risk right now is that folks could potentially miss the upside. Historically, Neil’s been more right than anyone else on how the macroeconomic environment has transpired over the last 18 months, and most importantly, he’s been right for the right reasons. We’ve been in the same camp as Neil, which is a big reason why we continue to overweight equities in our House View portfolios. In fact, in our long-term oriented strategic portfolios – amongst the most popular models at Carson – we are at our maximum possible overweight to equities.

I want to walk through some of the data Neil mentioned in our conversation.

Yesterday, we also got the personal consumption index (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred metric of inflation. There was a spike in inflation in January, mostly on the services side. But there’s good reason to believe this is a one-off “January seasonality effects,” which will ease over the next few months. The big picture is that inflation is easing. Core PCE inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy components, is running at a 2.5% annualized rate over the last three months, and 2.6% annual rate over the last six months. A year ago, these metrics were running around 5%, so the January spike in inflation data is likely just a bump in the downward trend.



A big reason to be skeptical of another inflation surge is what we’re seeing in the labor market. For one, wage growth is not accelerating. The Employment Cost Index (ECI), which is considered the gold standard of wage growth measures, continues to decelerate. As of the fourth quarter of 2023, ECI for private sector workers was running at an annualized pace of 3.7%, well below peak levels in 2022 to early 2023. It’s only slightly elevated relative to the 2017-2019 average of 2.9%. Nevertheless, the downtrend in wage growth suggests the January inflation spike is not the beginning of an uptrend.



Another sign that we’re not likely to see a burst of wage growth (and inflation) is that the rate at which workers are quitting their jobs has fallen significantly over the last ear. As a percent of the workforce, the number of workers quitting their jobs is now at 2.4%, well below where it was a year ago, and in fact, even lower than where we were pre-pandemic. Lower turnover implies that the labor market is not as hot as it was and validates what we’re seeing in the wage growth data.





As I noted above, wage growth is still elevated relative to where we were pre-pandemic. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – inflation can still remain muted if productivity is running strong. And we’ve seen some evidence of that. Over the last three quarters, productivity growth has run at an annualized pace of 3.9%, the strongest pace outside of recessions since the late 1990s. (Labor productivity “artificially” goes up during recessions and their immediate aftermath, as the same level of output is generated by fewer workers.) In fact, Neil made a good point that the lower quit rate is likely boosting productivity. If a worker sits at the same seat for a longer period, they likely become better at their jobs.



Ultimately, what matters for an economy that runs mostly on consumption is inflation-adjusted income growth. Relatively strong wage growth combined with decelerating inflation means real incomes are growing. Along with the latest PCE inflation data, the government also released personal income data, which perhaps got less attention than it deserved. Over the last three months, real incomes excluding transfers (like social security) are running at an annualized pace of 4.2%. For perspective, it was running at 2.6% across 2018-2019.



Yeah, the general consensus is the economy is fine. Perhaps more than fine.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 3.8.24-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 3.8.24-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for March 8th, 2024
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/10/24
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (3/11-3/15) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (3/11) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 3.11.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 3.11.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 3.12.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 3.12.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 3.13.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 3.13.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 3.14.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 3.14.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 3.15.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 3.15.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $PATH $ORCL $S $ADM $ASAN $ONON $BLNK $ULTA $DLTR $DG $ZIM $CLOV $KSS $CASY $DKS $SKIN $WKHS $BLDP $ARCO $MTN $GWH $LEN $BIRD $FUTU $PHUN $OCUL $VRM $NRGV $FTRE $PD $AVO $WOOF $LFMD $SILV $VFF $JBL $ELTK $SMAR $WSM $BZ $HGTY $IGT $PHX $RGTI $WPM $LEGN $KOPN $CSIQ $ASRT)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning March 11th, 2024 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, March the 11th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 3/11/24 - Inflation Week
Mon, Mar 11, 2024

Happy inflation week. While the week starts off on a quiet note in terms of economic data, it will be a busy one related to inflation-related reports. Things start off today with the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations and its section on inflation expectations. Tomorrow, we’ll get the February read on CPI which is expected to increase 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y. That report will be followed up with PPI on Thursday and Import and Export Prices on Friday.

Although the magnitude was modest (-0.26%), last week was a rare down one for the S&P 500. As shown in the Sector Snapshot below, though, most sectors were higher. Leading the way, Utilities surged over 3%, followed by Real Estate, Materials, and Energy which all rallied over 1%. These aren’t the types of sectors that can drive the market higher, and when large sectors like Consumer Discretionary (-2.55%), Technology (-1.62%), and Communications Services (-0.54%) fall, it’s going to be hard for the major indices to post gains. Even with last week’s declines at the index level, though, every sector except for Consumer Discretionary remains at overbought levels.



Looking ahead, one factor bulls have working in their favor is seasonality. As shown below, whether we look at the next week, month, or three months, the S&P 500’s median returns rank in the 75 or highest percentile relative to all other periods throughout the year.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, March 11th, 2024.