Stock Market Today: January 8th - 12th, 2024

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of January 8th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
(N/A.)

 

Global Markets Suffer Worst Start In Over 20 Years As 'Soft' Data Stalls, Financial Conditions Tighten
FRIDAY, JAN 05, 2024 - 04:00 PM

In terms of total wealth destroyed, 2024 has started with the worst record ever as global bond and stock markets saw over $3 trillion wiped away...



The losses are dominated by global stocks (down around $2 trillion), while bonds are down around $1 trillion (but still up massively from the major inflection point at the start of November)...



Source: Bloomberg

This shift has dramatically changed the trend for financial conditions (which have tightened by the most over the past week since October)...



Source: Bloomberg

And hope is rung out of the economy as 'soft' data starts to catch down to 'hard' data's somber reality...



Source: Bloomberg

Despite initial appearances (payrolls rose more than expected), the jobs reports was a shitshow and markets began to realize it after a while with rate-cut hopes, bond yields, gold and stock prices all reversing the initial kneejerk move.

Rate-cut expectations initial tumbled on the 'good' jobs data then whipped higher on the 'bad' ISM before settling back around unch on the day (though March odds and 2024 total cuts both hawkishly dropped this week)...





Source: Bloomberg

All the US Majors were down to start the year with Small Caps and Nasdaq the biggest losers (down around 3.5-4%). The Dow was the least harmed but still down 1% on the week



This was Nasdaq's worst week since last March.

Today saw stocks swing wildly around the macro data but a late day charge lifted most majors barely green...



Magnificent 7 stocks saw over $400 Billion of market cap wiped away this week, erasing all of December's gains...



Source: Bloomberg

As financial conditions have tightened so the laggards that became major leaders in the last two months of 2023 have once again become laggards...



Source: Bloomberg

Anti-Obesity drug-stocks managed gains on the week...



Source: Bloomberg

Notably, this was not a "AI-bubble-burst" moment - as AI-beneficiaries and those 'at risk' from AI were both hit just as hard this week as rates rose...



Source: Bloomberg

While the entire curve was higher in yield on the week, 30Y yields rose the most (up 16bps - the second biggest yield jump to start a year since 2011)



Source: Bloomberg

...but 2Y yields were up 13.5bps - the biggest yield increase to start a year since 2005...



Source: Bloomberg

Today was a little more crazy that most with yields spiking on payrolls beat, then tumbling on ISM Services miss, then rising back as the ugly reality of the jobs data hit home.



Source: Bloomberg

That was a 17bps hi-lo range for 2Y yields...



Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied to start the year and had a wild day today (like bonds)...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold fell to start the year but not after ramping up to green for a few brief minutes after this morning's weak ISM...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices chopped around wildly this week but ended higher - in fact WTI had its best week since October trading up to $74...



Source: Bloomberg

Finally, are cyclical stocks about to start rolling over and catching down to the de-growth reality of US macro and oil prices?



Source: Bloomberg

That's quite a gap! Can stocks remain buoyant as reserves bleed?



Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the AAPL has fallen far from the tree (down almost 10% from its record highs...



Source: Bloomberg

...far enough to now be 'oversold'.

 

Chop Likely as Market’s 9-Week Winning Streak Ends



Absent an afternoon rally, the market’s weekly winning streak of nine in a row will come to an end today. Streaks of this duration are not unprecedented but are also not all that common with S&P 500 and DJIA both logging ten previous weekly winning streak of nine weeks or more since 1950. Including the current streak, they come along once in approximately seven years for DJIA and S&P 500. NASDAQ’s nine week or longer weekly winnings streaks have occurred about twice as often as DJIA and S&P 500, once in about three and a half years.

For DJIA and S&P 500, the current nine-week winning streak is the best nine-week streak based upon total gains. NASDAQ’s last nine-week streak in 2009 returned 34.41%, dwarfing its current streak gain of 18.73%. Lengthy winning weekly streaks are clearly bullish.





In the above tables we present all the previous nine-week and longer weekly winning streaks for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The Streaks Start date is the week ending date for the first positive week and the corresponding close is the prior week’s close. The columns under 1-Week After is the weekly performance that ended the streak. 2-Week After, 1-Month After and 3-Months After columns are the respective indexes performance from the close of the last week of the winning streak.

Historically, the market’s performance has been soft in the near term, with modest average weekly losses, but it began to improve by 1-month and 3-months after. NASDAQ has tended to rebound the quickest after its past weekly winning streaks have ended. Given the size of the gains during the winning streak it is not surprising to see the market take a pause and consolidate. Bullishly, the historical declines after long weekly winning streaks have been on the mild side.

European Golden Cross
Fri, Jan 5, 2024

Like their peers in the US, European stocks enjoyed quite a rally over the last two months of the year. In early December the STOXX 600 broke out above the resistance of the summer highs, and while momentum has slowed in the last couple of weeks, earlier this week the index experienced a golden cross where its 50-day moving average (DMA) moved above its 200-DMA as both were rising. Technicians consider these types of formations to be bullish in terms of longer-term returns, but are they?



The table below summarizes the performance of the STOXX 600 following prior golden crosses since the index's inception in 1987. Looking across the table, forward returns were generally better than average over the following one, three, and six months, but over the following week and year, forward returns were weaker than the average long-term returns for all one-week and one-year periods. So, contrary to conventional wisdom, golden crosses in the STOXX 600 have not necessarily been a precursor of better-than-average returns.

What's also notable about this week's golden cross is the fact that it occurred on a day when the STOXX 600 declined 0.9%, While four of the six prior golden crosses occurred on days when the STOXX 600 was down, the only one where it was down anywhere nearly as much as it was on January 3rd was back in May 1995.



Santa Fails to Call, But Trifecta 2 Out of 3 Ain’t Bad

With the Santa Claus Rally a no show we will be watching for a positive First Five Days (FFD) and January Barometer (JB), the second and third legs of our January Indicator Trifecta. Since 1950 there have been only three occurrences when SCR was down and both the FFD and JB were positive. Two out of three of those years were up over 20% and 1994 was a flat -1.5% with a 14.8% average gain on all three.

There are only three down SCR years with up FFDs and JBs we present to you the other years with one of the Trifecta components down and the other two up. Of these 18 years 14 years were up and 4 were down with an average gain of 7.9%. 2 out of 3 ain’t bad for our January Indicator Trifecta.

Profit taking in January has become more commonplace in the last 25 years or so and January is notably softer in election years like 2024. But the selling over the past few days is notable and a warning sign. Don’t forget Yale Hirsch’s famous line, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” Click here for more https://stocktradersalmanac.com/Alerts.aspx


Sentiment Signals Mixed
Thu, Jan 4, 2024

The S&P 500 has gotten off to a rocky start to the new year, but it hasn't knocked down bullish sentiment yet. This week's bullish sentiment reading from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) rose from 46.3% in the final week of 2023 up to 48.6% this week. That edges bullish sentiment back towards the multi-year high of 52.9% put in place two weeks ago and still leaves bullish sentiment over a full standard deviation above its historical average.



As for bearish sentiment, things are not as extended, though at 23.5%, the share of bears is still several percentage points lower than the historical average (31%).



That means the bull-bear spread is also still historically in favor of bulls with a 25 percentage point gap between the two.



Including other weekly sentiment surveys, the picture is a bit more muddled albeit still showing a bias towards bullishness. For starters, after its holiday hiatus, the Investors Intelligence survey posted its highest reading on bullish sentiment since November 2021. Conversely, this week's reading in the NAAIM Exposure index tracking active managers' equity exposure plummeted from a reading above 100 (meaning managers reported they were fully invested long) all the way down to 71. That is the lowest reading in the index since early November.



Santa Didn’t Come, What Now?


“Plans are useless, but planning is everything.” President Dwight D. Eisenhower

First things first, stocks fell during the historically bullish Santa Claus Rally (SCR) period. You can read all about the SCR in Here Comes The Santa Claus Rally. The absence of an SCR may be a minor warning sign stocks are due for a break. But seriously, after a nine-week win streak for the S&P 500 (longest since 2004), some weakness shouldn’t be overly surprising.

Nonetheless, looking at the past six times Santa didn’t come (going back 30 years), January has been lower the past five in a row and the first quarter was higher only three times, with modest returns overall. I’d like to stress this isn’t an end-of-the-world signal, but we shouldn’t ignore the clues markets give us when ‘stocks don’t go up when they should.’



We remain optimistic stocks will do well this year, but maybe stocks are due for a break?

Here’s a chart I shared many times last year. It shows how stocks do on average each quarter of the four-year Presidential cycle. Sure enough, this cycle stocks rallied big time at the end of the mid-term year (2022) and then the first half of the pre-election year (2023), saw a break in Q3 of the pre-election year, before rallying hard to end the pre-election year. Now as we move into an election year, take note that Q1 tends to be a weak part of the calendar. The good news is the rest of an election year tends to be strong.



I’ve heard a lot from people asking how stocks could possibly do well in 2024 after their huge year in 2023. Well, we don’t officially release our Outlook for ’24 until next week, but I’ll just give a little bit away now. We still think this bull market has plenty of life left in it.

What happens after a 20% year you ask?

• I found there were 20 previous times the S&P 500 gained at least 20% and it was higher the following year 16 times (80%) and up a very solid median return of 12.1%.
• Last time we saw a 20% gain (’21) stocks moved into a bear market the next year (’22), but the nine years before that (and 10 of the last 11) saw gains after a 20% year.
• It would be extremely rare for stocks to actually gain more in ’24 than they did in ’23, as only once in history (’97) did the S&P 500 follow up a year that was up more than 20% with a bigger gain.
• Lastly, another 20% gain is possible, as it happened four previous years.

The bottom line is a big up year by itself isn’t a reason to become bearish, as history says it is likely to see continued strong gains.

I will leave you with two charts that I think are must-knows for investors as we start the new year. First off, a balanced portfolio (60% stocks and 40% bonds) had a historically bad year in ’22, but came roaring back last year. We are optimistic that both stock and bonds should do well this year, but you’ll have to wait one more week to get our official targets.



Lastly, on average stocks have seen a 14.2% peak-to-trough correction during a calendar year since 1980. Even last year, as great as it was, saw a 10.3% correction into late October. In fact, a lot of really good years have seen some scary pullbacks amid alarming headlines, so as the quote above stresses, start planning now for when you see red on the screen. Will you panic? Or use it as an opportunity?



A Whole Lot of Nothing at the Surface
Wed, Jan 3, 2024

The S&P 500 is still within 2% of its record closing high reached exactly two years ago today, but beneath the surface, there have been some big moves. The chart below shows a distribution of two-year returns for every S&P 500 stock that is currently in the index, and while there have been some big winners and losers over this period, the average component’s move has been just a modest decline of 0.54%. So while the S&P 500 is down 1.9% from its high, over that same period, the ‘average’ stock in the index is down even less. For all the talk over the last year about how narrow the market has been, over the last two years that hasn’t been the case.



In the tables below, we show the 25 best and worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last two years. Starting with the winners, all of the stocks listed have rallied at least 63%, and there are another 14 stocks that are up over 50% that didn’t make the list. Perhaps what stands out most about the list of biggest winners is what stocks aren’t on it. As shown, only three Technology sector stocks (and no Communication Services sector stocks) made the list, and of those three, not even one has a market cap of more than $30 billion. The only mega-cap stock on the list is Eli Lilly (LLY), showing again how while mega-cap tech had a great 2023, on a ‘two-year stack,’ their performance has been unremarkable. While tech stocks weren’t well-represented on the list, Energy and Industrials filled the void with eight and six stocks, respectively.



Among the list of biggest losers over the last two years, 18 are down over 50% led lower by VF Corp (VFC) and Match Group (MTCH) which have both plummeted more than 70%. Both of these stocks now have market caps of less than $10 billion, and of the 25 names shown, only three (Paypal-PYPL, Estee Lauder-EL, and Pfizer-PFE) have market caps above $50 billion.



January 2024 Almanac: Historically Solid, But Weaker in Election Years

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations has historically propelled stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but sixth on the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. January is the last month of the best three-consecutive-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities, our Santa Claus Rally ends on the close on January 3, the First Five Days early warning system reports on the close on January 8 and the full-month January Barometer at month’s end.

DJIA and S&P January rankings slipped from 2000 to 2022 as both indices suffered losses in 13 of those 24 Januarys with three in a row in: 2008 to 2010, 2014 to 2016 and then again from 2020 to 2022. January 2009 has the dubious honor of being the worst January on record for DJIA (-8.8%) and S&P 500 (-8.6%) since 1901 and 1930 respectively. Covid-19 spoiled January in 2020 & 2021 as DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 all suffered declines in 2020. In 2021, DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 declined. In 2022 surging inflation, that reached multi-decade highs, stoked fears of higher interest rates. Fears were ultimately validated as a bear market ensued.

In election years, Januarys have been weaker. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 and DJIA average performance dips negative. NASDAQ slips to #4, but average performance remains respectable at 1.7%. Russell 2000’s average performance of 0.8% is the result of all five advancing Januarys gaining over 4% which offsets the losses in six other election-year Januarys.

4 Takeaways from 2023 Market Superlatives


2023 is now in the books. It was a year that no-one expected, but to the upside, which is the way we would all have it. The anticipated recession that didn’t come was overpriced into the market with 2022’s S&P 500 decline of 18%. Those declines helped the index power ahead to a 26.3% gain on a total return basis in 2023. That left the S&P 500 with a modest 3.5% gain over the last two years and an annualized growth rate of 11.9% over the last 10 years, which is good but not scary good compared to the 50-year annualized growth rate of 11.1%. In fact, it ranks as only the 41st best of the 87 10-year rolling periods going back to 1937. (For the curious, the best 10-year period was 1947-1958 with an annualized 20.1% gain.)



Bonds came roaring back in the fourth quarter, giving the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) a return of 5.5% for the year, just ahead of the Bloomberg US Short Treasury (1-3 month) Index at 5.1%. This was the first year of gains for the broad U.S. benchmark after two years of declines, which had marked only the fourth and fifth year of declines in the index’s history.

But if you only paid attention to full year returns, you missed the story. The Agg was down for the year through three quarters and then posted its best quarter in over 20 years, with a gain of 6.8%, providing solid benefits for those who had lengthened the maturity of bond holdings over the year. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Securitized – MBS Index and the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index also both had their best quarter in over 20 years, finishing the year with total returns of 5.0% and 6.4% respectively. The broad decline in yields was so sharp in the fourth quarter it likely pulled forward some potential 2024 gains, but we expect bonds to have another solid if unspectacular year ahead as the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates, while also continuing to return to their traditional role of portfolio diversifiers as inflation continues to move towards the Fed’s target 2%.

One of the biggest stories of the year was the run for large cap growth stocks, anchored by the technology-oriented mega caps and the chipmakers most closely associated with artificial intelligence. The Russell 1000 Growth Index climbed 42.7%, its best year on record (going back to 1979), surpassing even the best years of the “dot com” bubble. Some of this was make-up for underperformance in 2022 when the index lost 29.1%. After such strong separation from value, we expect performance between growth and value to be more aligned in 2024.

Finally, the fourth quarter saw the Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks outpace the Russell 1000 Index for only the second time since the first quarter of 2020. Small caps were hit hard by the regional banking crisis early in the year, compounded by their greater sensitivity to higher interest rates due to funding costs. Those losses had pushed valuations to historical extremes compared to large caps. Small caps have come very far very fast, with one of their best rallies ever since bottoming compared to the Russell 1000 on November 10. Nevertheless, the Russell 2000 only returned 16.9% for the year compared to 26.5% for the Russell 1000.

Small cap valuations have moved more in line with historical averages with the recent rally, but the Russell 1000 still trades at a substantial premium to history so the separation between them is historically meaningful. It may require some patience, since valuations are a poor timing mechanism, but we believe there is still scope for small cap outperformance over a strategic time frame.

There you have it. A surprisingly strong year for stocks and a solid year for bonds, considering where they were after three quarters. Growth stocks had a stellar performance with a boost from the AI frenzy. Small caps were spectacular late in the year but still lagged behind large caps over the year by a wide margin. All setting up an interesting 2024, with recession calls somewhat lighter than a year ago, but still quite a bit of gloom out there with some large shops still holding onto their recession call. (Stick to a call long enough and you’ll never be wrong, only early.)

2023's Biggest Losers in the Russell 1,000
Tue, Jan 2, 2024

While broad swathes of the equity market rose in 2023, that is not to say there were not areas of weakness. Of course there were some major spotlight stocks that investors would have completely lost their shirt on like Silicon Valley Bank had they been invested in the beginning of the year, but for those stocks still standing, below we show the 35 Russell 1,000 members that fell by at least 30% during the year. 2021 short squeeze and meme stock darling AMC Entertainment (AMC) was the worst performer on the year in 2023. Price action in the stock was actually pretty flat throughout the year up until the summer. That's when prices plunged on news that the company would be approved to convert its one year old preferred shares to common stock and a 1-for-10 reverse split. Ultimately, AMC would go on to finish the year with an 85% loss.

One theme popping up in the biggest losers is clean energy. As EV sales decelerated last year, prices of stocks like ChargePoint (CHPT) and Lucid (LCID) hit major speedbumps, falling by 75.55 and 38.36%, respectively. Other clean energy names like Enphase (ENPH) also faced large losses.

A handful of various retailers also made the list like Petco (WOOF), Advanced Auto Parts (AAP), and Dollar General (DG). Dollar General possesses the largest market cap of those stocks, but of all the biggest losers, the vaccine makers were the largest in size. Both Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA) fell by over 40%. In the case of PFE, the stock is now below pre-pandemic levels.



2023's Biggest Winners in the Russell 1,000
Tue, Jan 2, 2024

In last Wednesday's Closer, we noted how there was a somewhat elevated share of the S&P 500 experiencing gains of over 100%. Expanding to the Russell 1,000, there were 34 stocks with total returns of more than 100%. Two members of the Financials sector topped the list, Affirm (AFRM) and Coinbase (COIN), with gains of 408% and 391%, respectively. Two mega caps also found their ways into the top of the list in the five and seven spots: NVIDIA (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META). One of NVIDIA's largest competitors Advanced Micro (AMD) was also an over 100% gainer, though it falls a bit further down the list with a 127.8% gain. Other large caps like Broadcom (AVG) and Tesla (TSLA) also posted 100%+ gains.

Those semi conductor names were certainly boosted by the emergence of AI during the year, but other themes were also present among the year's biggest gainers. For starters, cruise liners like Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL) put big dents in their post pandemic recoveries with RCL even closing in on pre-pandemic highs. In spite of high rates tamping down demand, housing inventories are historically tight meaning there is an increasing importance on new inventories hitting the market. As we showed in our Annual Report, like AI, housing was also a major theme across earnings calls last year. That offers a potential boon to the homebuilders and it showed in stock performance in 2023. The homebuilder industry had strong representation with names like Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Top Build (BLD), PulteGroup (PHM), and Toll Brothers (TOL) posting over 100% gains.



2023 Russell 1,000 Average Stock Performance by Sector
Tue, Jan 2, 2024

2023 turned out to be a fantastic year for stocks after a horrible 2022. Below we show the average total return of all stocks in each sector of the Russell 1,000 in 2023. While most areas of the market moved higher during the year, the one area of equity markets that actually provided a negative return was Utilities. That sector's stocks lost an average of 4.1% compared to a 20.5% average gain for the whole of the Russell 1,000. As a reminder, Utilities has the highest dividend yield of any sector, but even after factoring in those relatively high dividend yields, the average stock in the sector posted a negative total return in 2023. Consumer Staples just barely netted out an average gain, while Health Care, Energy, Real Estate, and Materials all also underperformed the broader index. That leaves Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Technology each with the average stock gaining more than 20% on the year. Given the emergence of AI in 2023, Tech was the top performer. In fact, the average Tech stock was up 43.8%, which was more than twice that of the average Russell 1,000 stock.

The Triple Play Kings of 2023
Mon, Jan 1, 2024

Another earnings season is on the horizon, and throughout the reporting period, as we do each quarter, we'll be on the lookout for opportunities from companies reporting earnings triple plays. While we're waiting for the fresh batch of reports, we wanted to provide a quick update on triple-play trends from 2023. As a reminder, an earnings triple play is a company that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance.

In 2023, there were a total of 560 earnings triple plays during the year, and the average one-day performance of the companies reporting them was a gain of 6.10%. Within those 560 reports, 32 companies managed to report three or more triple-plays, six of which had four triple-play reports in the calendar year. Below is a complete list of all the companies that fit the bill of at least three triple plays in 2023. It’s important to note that just because a company beats estimates and raises guidance doesn’t necessarily mean its stock will rally. As shown, several names in this list are down on the year, regardless of their strong earnings relative to expectations. In total, 130 of the 560 triple plays were accompanied by negative returns on the stock's earnings reaction day.

Tech stocks had the biggest turnout on the list, accounting for over 40% of the names listed. Consumer Discretionary followed but had only half as many names as Technology (7) followed by Health Care (4), Consumer Staples (3), Industrials (3), and Financials with one. Of the fourteen tech stocks listed, four had triple plays every earnings season this year.

Two notable names on this list include DraftKings (DKNG) and Duolingo (DUOL). Both stocks were up more than 200% in 2023, and both beat EPS and revenue estimates in every earnings report of the year. If not for inline guidance once each, they’d both be joining the club of four 2023 triple plays too.



Zooming in on the six companies to report triple plays every earnings season in 2023, the triple play kings, all but one significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in 2023. Excluding Clear Secure (YOU), each of the five others at least doubled the performance of the S&P. The most impressive of course has been NVIDIA (NVDA) which ripped 239% in 2023, followed by e.l.f Beauty (ELF) which also doubled. Collectively, on an equal-weighted basis, the six stocks were up just over 100% on the year.

The chart below features points to mark each earnings report of the six triple play kings, and below that we have included a table showing each stock's earnings reaction day performance to their report. The second quarter was particularly strong in terms of earnings day reactions as triple plays from NVDA and ELF led to gains of 24.4% and 20.5%, respectively on 5/25. Again, it’s worth mentioning that strong earnings don’t necessarily guarantee share price gains. Zscaler (ZS), although more than doubling in 2023, reported a triple play in March that resulted in an 11% pullback. On a broader scale, YOU fell more than 20% on the year despite reporting four triple plays. Not even NDVA could avoid a negative reaction to a triple play when it fell 2.46% following its last earnings report. In fact, besides ELF every one of the ‘triple play kings’ listed had at least one down day in reaction to a triple play earnings report this year.

Those were the triple-play kings of 2023. Will they retain their crowns in 2024? Or will a new crop of earnings royalty emerge to form a new empire? We'll start to find out in the next few weeks. Happy New Year!

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 1.5.24-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 1.5.24-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for January 5th, 2024
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1/7/24
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (1/8-1/12) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (1/8) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 1.8.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 1.8.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 1.9.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Tuesday 1.9.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 1.10.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Wednesday 1.10.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 1.11.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Thursday 1.11.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 1.12.24 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(T.B.A.)

Friday 1.12.24 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($JPM $TLRY $UNH $DAL $BAC $WFC $AEHR $BLK $AYI $ACCD $CMC $KBH $AZZ $HELE $SNX $BK $WDFC $JEF $INFY $PSMT $RELL $ETWO $ACI $SAR $MSM $NEOG $SGH $BBCP $WIT $NTIC $CAMP)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning January 8th, 2024 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, January the 8th, 2024!

 

Morning Lineup - 1/8/24 - Welcome Back
Mon, Jan 8, 2024

We may be eight days into the year already, but from a market perspective, today seems like the first day back. While there isn’t any economic news on the calendar, there’s been a ton of announcements from individual companies concerning guidance and Q4 performance. This week also marks the unofficial start of Q4 earnings season, and we’ll have the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference and the 2024 Consumer Electronics Show. It’s also a full trading week!

The biggest individual stock story of the morning is Boeing (BA) which is trading down around 7.5% after a door panel on an Alaskan Air (ALK) flight blew off mid-flight. In response to the event, the FAA has ordered the grounding of all 737 MAX 9 jets in the US.

Boeing can’t seem to catch a break this decade, but towards the end of last year, the 40%+ rally in the stock suggested that maybe the worst of the company’s problems were behind it. This morning, though, the stock is poised to gap down to just above its 50-day moving average (DMA) in what would be the worst downside gap for the stock since 6/11/2020.



As painful as the decline is for BA shareholders this morning, historically the stock has tended to bounce back following downside gaps of at least 5%. The chart below compares the stock’s median performance following 5%+ downside gaps in the stock to its average performance for all periods since 1980. Outside of the one month, the stock’s median performance and frequency of positive returns were better than the average for all periods and in many cases, significantly so. That obviously doesn’t guarantee anything going forward, but even in the post-COVID period, the stock’s performance, especially over the following three, six, and twelve months, has tended to be positive.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, January 8th, 2024.

 

market attempting a furious comeback to make the FFD (first five days) green.

cash SPX would need at minimum a close over 4,769.83 to make it happen...there's only less than 10 minutes left in the day for it to happen. it's pretty close as it stands now, but does it have enough gusto to close over it? we shall see