Stock Market Today: December 11th - 15th, 2023

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, December the 12th, 2023!

 

Good Tuesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 12/12/23 - Even the Best Can Have a Bad Day
Tue, Dec 12, 2023

Heading into the big inflation report this morning, futures were firmly higher and rates were lower as traders anticipated a weak print, and the result was only a very modest disappointment. While the headline print came in slightly higher than expected (0.1% vs 0.0%) m/m, the core reading was right in line with forecasts (0.3%) and the year/year readings were right in line with forecasts. In the immediate aftermath of the report, there has been no change in the tone of equity futures or rates.

Yesterday was an interesting day in the equity market. While the stocks of the seven largest companies by market cap, which collectively account for more than 28% of the entire S&P 500, were all down at least 0.78% and as much as 2.24% in the session, the index itself finished the day higher by 0.39%. For investors in favor of a broadening out of the rally, this was exactly the type of action they wanted to see.

Within the semiconductor industry sector, we witnessed a similar type of move. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) traded sharply higher all day, and for most of the session, all but one of the index’s 30 components was higher. That lone holdout? Nvidia (NVDA). The stock opened lower on the session, and outside of the first half hour of trading, it was down at least 1% the entire day and as much as 3.5%. When the closing bell rang, the SOX finished the day up 3.4%, NVDA was down 1.85%, and the only other stock in the index that finished lower on the day was Wolfspeed (WOLF) which closed down 0.35%.

Like the magnificent seven in the S&P 500, NVDA and its market cap of $1.15 trillion accounts for over 28% of the total market cap in the SOX. For the stock to trade down nearly 2% on a day when the SOX trades significantly higher is extraordinary. Looking back over time, since the start of 2010, there have only been three other days where the SOX rallied at least 2% on the day while NVDA traded down over 1%, and the last occurrence was in January 2021. In each of those periods, NVDA wasn’t even the behemoth in terms of market cap that it is now. The charts below of the SOX and NVDA show each prior occurrence, and while there’s a temptation to read into these types of events as a significant turning point, there was no clear trend of performance for either following these prior occurrences.

Think about it this way. In week 9 of the 2020 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Bucs were creamed 38-3 by the New Orleans Saints for their first home loss of the season. Tom Brady had a lousy day with just 209 passing yards and 3 picks. As bad as that one game was, though, three months later it was the Bucs, who as a three-point underdog, crushed the Chiefs 31-9 in Super Bowl LV. Even the best on the field can have an occasional bad day.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, December 12th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, December the 13th, 2023!

 

Good Wednesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!

 

Morning Lineup - 12/13/23 - Mastermind
Wed, Dec 13, 2023

After a cruel summer sell-off that kicked off in August and all but erased the enchanted rally that spanned the months of May, June, and July, the market found itself in a delicate position in late October as the uptrend from the bear market lows in 2022 that we all remembered all too well were being tested. Right around Halloween, all bulls could think was, is it over now?

With the start of November, the market found some daylight, and despite the death by a thousand cuts of a strong dollar, higher oil prices, and rising rates in the prior weeks, bulls were able to shake it off in dramatic style and make it out of the woods from the red on hopes that the great war between the Fed and inflation was nearing a truce. It’s far from a love story, but as long as neither side acts up again, the bad blood between them has been set aside. Based on where futures are trading this morning, the S&P 500 Total Return Index will open at an all-time high, and if the rally keeps up, Fed Chair Powell will make the full transition from an anti-hero to mastermind in the eyes of the public. Never in most investors’ wildest dreams would they have thought we would be back to December feeling safe and sound and not far from all-time highs with nothing but blank space above. Were you ready for it?



This morning, it’s a subdued tone on the futures market as the market awaits the FOMC decision at 2 PM. PPI for November was just released and the results were generally weaker across the board. On a year/year basis, headline PPI dropped back down to 2.0%. The reaction from futures has been modestly positive, but how we finish will all depend on the Fed at 2 PM and Powell's press conference at 2:30.

It hasn’t been the best-performing sector since the S&P 500 late-October low, but the 14.2% gain in the Industrials sector since the 10/27 close puts it modestly ahead of the S&P 500’s gain of 12.8%. As shown in the chart below, the rally puts the sector not only within 1% of its 52-week high but also its all-time high from August 1st.

Along with the steep rally, the Industrials sector is also on the verge of a golden cross formation where its 50-day moving average (DMA) crosses above the 200-DMA as both are rising. Technicians consider these patterns to be positive, but as we have pointed out in the past, returns for other indices and sectors following their own golden crosses have been mixed.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, December 13th, 2023.

 

wow! will admit i haven't been following the market action closely for a while now. but, with it being fed day i took a look and was surprised to see the new round # high

i wonder if they still hold a tradition on the floor of the nyse giving out caps for every new round level high in the dow?

i do wonder though how much of this rally is pulling forward the santa claus rally now? what i mean is, the markets have seem to run up pretty hard for a little while now. how much more does the SCR now have?

my guess is it could be choppy from here to year end absent any really shockingly bad news.

amazing markets though no matter how you slice it! honestly didn't think new ATHs were in the cards this quickly.

 

also, i think i'm a little late to notice this, but i see CNBC has a new graphical look to it. and i think i like it.

 

looks like the majors closing right up at about the HOD. crazy run this has been lol