Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for July 31st - August 4th

19K, 20K, 21K, 22K…
Aug 2, 2017

The thousand point thresholds are dropping like flies these days. With the caveat that a thousand points becomes an increasingly small percentage of the overall index as prices rise, the DJIA just crossed its fourth 1,000 point threshold since Trump’s election last November. The table below shows the date that the DJIA has first crossed each 1,000 point threshold on a closing basis since it first closed above 1,000 back on 11/14/72. For each threshold, we show the date the DJIA first closed above that threshold, how many days transpired between that cross and the prior 1,000 point threshold, the percentage that each thousand point threshold represents of the index’s price, and then how many upside and downside crosses the DJIA has had with each level.

Since the election, the DJIA has now crossed four thousand point thresholds, and with each one, there has been very little in the way of looking back. For instance, once the DJIA crossed 19,000 it never closed back below that level. For 20,000, once it crossed that level, it only closed below it again once, while 21,000 only saw two subsequent closes. In looking for comparable periods, the current period is somewhat similar to the late 1990s, when the DJIA also crossed several 1,000 point thresholds in very short order. In the current period, these levels have been coming and going a lot faster, but again, it’s also important to remember that they represent a much smaller percentage of the overall index’s value than the levels that were crossed in the 1990s. Finally, while it may seem as though the move from 21K to 22K was quick, at 154 calendar days (if that level holds between now and the closing bell), it was nearly five times longer than the time that elapsed between 20K and 21K (35 days) and two and a half times longer than the time it took to go from 19K to 20K.

 

it is kind of ominous to me how techs continue to lag, but somehow the markets are hanging in there ... every time i think we might be on the cusp of something of a meaningful pullback the market does an about face ... maybe this friday's employment report might be the catalyst ... although then again aren't we in this good news = good; bad news = good for the markets because of the fed right? if it's a weak # that just means rates will be put on hold for even longer ... the resiliency of this market continues to astonish me ... we have now gone well past a year w/o a -5% dip off the highs ... that is pretty unprecedented ... at least nothing that i can remember in my time following these markets ... nothing lasts forever and this too will eventually give ... but when? i'm really curious to see if we do last the entire year w/o any meaningful pullback ... that'd be the first time that's happened since during the height of the raging 90s bull i think

 

thx for reminding me about this @rStock! i completely forgot about that! haha. i'll set that up now!

 

good morning fellas!

 

whelp, the divergent type action continues once again this morning ... this is almost a repeat of yesterday (and really this whole week in general) ... dj30 makes another new high but the other majors are flat to lower ... interesting ... wonder how this will play itself out ... do the other majors follow the dow's lead or does that eventually give in and catch up to the other majors lower and we finally get the market pullback?

tomorrow we get the jobs # ... probably will be very choppy today ahead of that #

 

US created 209,000 jobs in July, vs 183,000 jobs expected

• The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3 percent, according to a government report Friday.
• The report comes with the economy at a crossroads as President Trump has promised 3 percent economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/us-nonfarm-payrolls-july-2017.html

 

happy friday guys! running really late this morning so no stock movers thread...

what's on everyone's radar this morning?



have a great trading day!