1. U.S. Futures


Nail the #! Predict this Friday's (8.4.17) NFP's...

Discussion in 'Stock Market Polls' started by bigbear0083, Aug 2, 2017.

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How many new jobs created in July? CONSENSUS = 180K

Poll closed Aug 4, 2017.
  1. 0K to +50K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 51K to +100K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 101K to +125K

    20.0%
  4. 126K to +150K

    0 vote(s)
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  5. +151K to +175K

    20.0%
  6. +176K to +200K

    20.0%
  7. +201K to +225K

    20.0%
  8. +226K to +250K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. +251K to +275K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. +276K or higher

    20.0%
  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    This Friday morning we'll get the July read of the NFP's (Non-Farm Payrolls) report. So, just for fun here let's see who can nail the closes range on predicting Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls headline #! :D

    Poll closes @ 8:30am eastern time on Friday morning!

    [​IMG]
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here was ADP this morning vs consensus:
    [​IMG]

    *Worth noting that some of the employment sub-components within the ISM reports were weak as well.

    And here are the consensus levels for Friday's BLS report:
    [​IMG]
     
  3. rStock

    rStock Member

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    176-200K
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    i'm going with a really weak # this time around ... +101K to +125K

    i think our days of seeing 200K+ monthly employment #'s may be behind us for now

    as for the equity market reaction ... my guess is that this will be largely muted ... if it's a bad # markets will be fine with it as that would just mean the fed will be put on hold for longer ... the dollar will likely be a big mover in either direction i would imagine ... commodities could benefit if the # comes in really weak

    if we see a # with a minus in front of it then i think we could actually selloff ... but i highly doubt we would see that for this particular # anyway
     
  5. Jrich

    Jrich Active Member

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    Goin >201k

    Wonder if they count jobs not yet filled?... plenty of those out in West Texas..... almost every commercial on the radio is some company begging you to come work for them
     
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  6. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    I will go with +151K to +175K :D
     
  7. Timbo

    Timbo Active Member

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    276 and higher.
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    winner winner, chicken dinner! nfp headline # comes in at 209k

    great call, @Jrich!

    [​IMG]
     
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