Friday morning (9.1.17) we'll get the August read of the NFP's (Non-Farm Payrolls) report. So, just for fun here let's see who can nail the closes range on predicting Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls headline #! Poll closes @ 8:30am eastern time on Friday morning!
August #'s can be a bit squirrely from what I remember in past years. Wouldn't surprise me if this # came in a bit weak...and it wouldn't be related to the storm as that occurred outside of the survey week. That being said, I know I have been known to low ball these #'s in recent months only to have it blow away the estimates on the upside. A couple of the other job indicators like ADP and jobless claims have come in quite good. Hmm ... I'll go with a slight miss here at 151-175 ... but given the history of August's NFP's in past years it wouldn't surprise me if this was a larger miss, but was later revised higher in the coming months.
+226K to +250K. The weekly jobless claims have been low for weeks and the ADP was pretty strong, so I am going with a pretty strong number for the NFP
B.I.G. Tips – August Employment Report Preview Aug 31, 2017 Heading into Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for August, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 180K, which would be a 29K decline from last month’s stronger than expected reading of 209K. In the private sector, economists are expecting a slightly smaller increase of 172K, which would represent a similar decline as the headline number. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at an exceptionally low level of 4.3%. Growth in average hourly earnings is expected to decelerate to 0.2%, while average weekly hours worked is also forecast to remain unchanged at 34.5. Ahead of the report, we just published our eleven-page monthly preview for the August jobs report. This report contains a ton of analysis related to how the equity market has historically reacted to the monthly jobs report, as well as how secondary employment-related indicators we track looked in August. We also include a breakdown of how the initial reading for August typically comes in relative to expectations and how that ranks versus other months. One topic we cover in each month’s report is the S&P 500 stocks that do best and worst from the open to close on the day of the employment report based on whether or not the report comes in stronger or weaker than expected. In other words, which stocks should you buy, and which should you avoid? The table below highlights the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 from the open to close on days when the Non-Farm Payrolls report has been better than expected over the last two years. Of the 25 top performing stocks, seven sectors are represented, and Technology leads the way with seven. One of the top performing and consistently positive stocks on these days is Qorvo (QRVO) which has seen an average gain of 2.28% with positive returns 90% of the time.
Jobs report is out ... headline # comes in at +156K ... and the winner goes to ... *drum roll please* @bigbear0083 Good call Cy!
Just a quick chart to show exactly what I meant when I said that the initial read for the August NFP's has usually been a bit squirrely over the years. No real surprise here. And as I said the other day, I think this # ultimately gets revised higher (as it almost always has in past years) in the coming months.
