Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for October 2nd - 6th

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of October 2nd!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:




Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Earnings: Cal-Maine Food

9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing

10:00 a.m. Construction spending

2:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan

• Tuesday

Earnings: Lennar, Paychex, IDT

Vehicle sales

8:30 a.m. Fed Gov. Jerome Powell discusses regulatory reform

• Wednesday

Earnings: PepsiCo, Monsanto, Accuity, RPM International

8:15 a.m. ADP employment

9:45 a.m. Services PMI

10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing

2:15 p.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen makes introductory remarks at St. Louis Fed community banking conference

• Thursday

Earnings: Costco, Yum Brands, Constellation Brands, The Container Store

8:30 a.m. Initial claims

8:30 a.m. International trade

9:10 a.m. Fed Gov. Jerome Powell at New York Fed on best practices

9:15 a.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams at St. Louis Fed banking conference

9:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker at Dallas Fed event on workforce

10:00 a.m. Factory orders

4:30 p.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George at Dallas Fed event on workforce

• Friday

8:30 a.m. Employment report

9:15 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

12:15 p.m. New York Fed President William Dudley in Brooklyn on monetary policy

12:45 p.m. Dallas Fed's Kaplan at "Investing in America's Workforce" conference

1:50 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard in St. Louis

3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

 

Dollar & Stocks Jump; Bonds & Bullion Dump In Lowest Volatility September Ever
It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown - the 4th-longest streak since 1928... So everything is awesome...



BUT...US 'hard' economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009...




* * *

Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster...


Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow - the longest streak since Q3 1997.

The Long bond was unch, gold up 3.2%,. but stocks outperformed in Q3...





Nasdaq just outperformed Small Caps on the quarter as stocks reversed their down-trend seemingly around Yellen's J-Hole speech...





Treasury Yields are mixed for Q3 with 2Y notably higher but the rest of the curve barely budged...reversing early gains on Draghi's hawkish comments...





Interestingly the yield curve - 5s30s - ended unchanged on the quarter (after 5 quarterly declines in a row)...



The Dollar declined for the 3rd quarter in a row as Gold managed to eke out some gains as oil soared...



* * *

On the month...

• 3 Giant Storms - Harvey, Irma, and Maria crush Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico
• Trump threatens "fire and fury"
• Kim tests H-Bomb
• NoKo fires missiles over Japan
• NoKo says Trump 'Declared war'
• Healthcare bill fails again
• 6th monthly decline in a row for US 'hard' economic data

September is now in the books and it's official - it was the least volatile September for stocks in history...



Source: LPLFinancial

Some high- and low-lights for September include:

• Small Caps best month since Nov 2016
• Financials jump most in 3 months to record high
• 2Y Yield's biggest spike since Nov (to its highest since Nov 2008)
• Yield Curve (5s30s) flattened most since June (to flattest since Nov 2007)
• USD Index had best month since Dec 2016 (ending 6 month losing streak)
• Gold's worst month since Nov 2016
• Industrial Metals worst month since Dec 2016
• Oil's best month since Apr 2016

Bonds & Bullion were the month's laggard as stocks and the dollar surged...





Trannies & Small Caps ripped...





As Energy, Retailers, and Financials were best (year's laggards)...





AAPL was a notable laggard in September as FANGs managed small gains...





Equity market gains were also driven by hopes about taxes...



September was an ugly month for Treasuries...(worst month since Nov 2016 for bonds)





The Dollar Index reversed its medium-term downtrend in early September after Draghi's comments...





It appeared to also coincide with the lagged upturn in President Trump's approval rating...





Notably EURUSD suffered its first monthly loss since February breaking the longest run of monthly gains versus the dollar since January 2013... as 1.20 seemed like the line in the sand for Draghi...





Oil had a big month as PMs and Copper dropped...



* * *

Finally we focus down on this week...
The Dow was the laggard on the week, barely scratching out a gain as Small Caps surged - Russell 2000's best week since Dec 2016





Dow was rammed above 22,400 into the close...





But while Small Caps have ripped, high-tax names appear unimpressed by Trump's plan...





FANG Stocks manage to recoup all of Monday's losses...





Banks continue to decouple from the yield curve...





Notably XIV - the inverse VIX ETF - hit a new record high today...





As VIX closed at a weekly closing record low, monthly closing record low, and quarterly closing record low...





Treasury yields all rose together this week by 6-8bps...





The Dollar Index rose 1% on the week - its biggest weekly gains since Dec 2016, led by Aussie and Euro weakness...(NOTE last two days have seen some give back)





Bitcoin +15% on the week, -12% in September (worst month since Aug 2016), +66% in Q3 (4th quarterly gain in a row)





And then there's real bubble... Swiss National Bank -2% on the week (worst week since May), +26% in September (6th monthly rise in a row), +98% in Q3 (most since 1997)





Crude rallied on the week as PMs slipped lower...





And finally, a quick reminder - stocks have never... ever... been more expensive than this...

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Tax Cut Wish List

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

On Wednesday, the President announced his plan to cut taxes for Americans, return jobs to America and return the country to economic prosperity.

It’s a tall order to fill, and the proposed tax reform is a “Christmas Wish List” that will have to checked twice to determine which parts are “naughty” and “nice.”


As I pointed out yesterday,



“The belief that tax cuts will eventually become revenue neutral due to expanded economic growth is a fallacy. As the CRFB noted:



‘Given today’s record-high levels of national debt, the country cannot afford a deficit-financed tax cut. Tax reform that adds to the debt is likely to slow, rather than improve, long-term economic growth.’



The problem with the claims that tax cuts reduce the deficit is that there is NO evidence to support the claim. The increases in deficit spending to supplant weaker economic growth has been apparent with larger deficits leading to further weakness in economic growth. In fact, ever since Reagan first lowered taxes in the ’80’s both GDP growth and the deficit have only headed in one direction – lower.’



That little green bump in the deficit was when President Clinton “borrowed” $2 trillion from Social Security to balance the budget, and since there were no cuts to spending, led a surplus that lasted about 20-minutes.

The problem is that the tax plan may not provide the benefits as hoped. While President Trump suggests the plan will return “trillions” of dollars locked up overseas to create jobs, the reality, according to Goldman Sachs, is likely closer to $250 billion that will primarily go to share buybacks, dividends, and executive compensation.

Of course, such actions do not boost economic growth but are a boon to Wall Street and the 10% of the economy that invest in the market.



But here is the key point with respect to tax cuts. History is replete with evidence that shows tax cuts DO NOT lead to a rapid growth in the economy. As shown below, the slope of economic growth has been trending lower since the “Reagan tax cuts” were implemented.



Lastly, tax cuts have relatively low economic multipliers particularly when they primarily only benefit those at the top of the income spectrum. With the average household heavily indebted, credit is being used to sustain the standard of living, there is likely to be little transfer of “tax savings” back into the economy.



“It is a simple function of math. But the following chart shows why this has likely come to the inevitable conclusion, and why tax cuts and reforms are unlikely to spur higher rates of economic growth.”



As is always the case…“it’s the debt, stupid.”

However, here are plenty of discussions both for and against the tax plan so you can decide for yourself.

Trump Tax Cut Plan

• Separating Fact From Fiction by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• Surveys Of Trump Tax Cuts Are Misleading by IBD
• Tax Reform – Simpler Code, Lower Taxes, Economic Growth by Tony Mecia via TWS
• Ignore Naysayers, Tax Cuts Help Everyone by Ed Feulner via Washington Times
• Do Republicans Care About The Deficit? by Jared Bernstein via NYT
• It’s Crucial That Republicans Pass Tax Cuts by Thomas Del Beccaro via Forbes
• CEO’s Fear Tax Reform Won’t Measure Up by Shawn Tully via Fortune
• I Can’t Figure Out The Tax Code by Bill O’Neill via IBD
• All The Sweet, None Of The Sour by Joe Ciolli via BI
• Tax Reform, The Time Has Come by Wayne Brough via The American Spectator
• Most Americans Don’t Need A Tax Cut by Rex Nutting via MarketWatch
• Tax Reform Won’t Fix Budget Mess by Shawn Tully via Fortune
• Fed Is Anticipating Tax Reform? by Brian Domitrovic via Forbes
• UBS: Tax Reform Won’t Happen by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge
• GOP Buys Into The “Tax Fairness Lie” by IBD
• Will Repatriation Really Work? by Eduardo Porter via NY Times

Markets

• “Wolf Of Wall Street” – Bitcoin Not Viable by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch
• Finance Chiefs Growing Pessimistic About The Future by Ciara Linnane via MarketWatch
• The Real Threat To The Equity Bull Market by Nicholas Colas via Bloomberg
• The Coming Bear Market? by Robert Shiller via Project Syndicate
• Ramping Up Policy Normalization by Stephen Roach via Project Syndicate
• Little Things Mean A Lot by Cliff Asness via AQR Capital Management
• Will The Fed Hike Us Into A Recession by James Picerno via Capital Spectator
• Tech Weakness Can’t Kill Bull Market by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• Chinks In Bull Market’s Armor by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders
• IPO Market Needs Revamping by James Mackintosh via Streetwise
• Most Stocks Aren’t Good Investments by Jeff Sommer via NYT
• Economic Growth Frustrating Bulls & Bears by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners
• Janet In Wonderland by Ed Yardeni via Yardeni Research
• Time To Sell Fangs by Doug Kass via RIA
• Yields Jump As Bond Traders Reposition For Tax Cuts by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch

Research / Interesting Reads

• White House As Trump’s New Casino by Nomi Prins via The Daily Reckoning
• Your Investment Risk Isn’t What You Think by WSJ
• Socialism Has Yet To Work by Richard Rahn via Washington Times
• FED: We’ve Been Here Before by Scott Sumner via Econolog
• What Do The Best Investors Do That You Don’t by Behavioral Value Investor
• The Death Of Active Management Is Greatly Exaggerated by Jeff Troutner via Index Funds
• Fed Wrong That Hurricanes Are Economically Good by Simon Constable via PJ Media
• Mauldin: The Pension Crisis Is Coming by John Mauldin via Zerohedge
• Bridgewater: Fed Is Making A Huge Mistake by Rachael Levy via BI
• Investing Is Never Passive by Matthew Bartolini via SPDR blog
• More Spending Does NOT Drive Employment by Bylund via The Mises Institute
• Single Most Overvalued Point In History by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• Households Are Loaded With Stocks by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
• All You Need To Know About The Fed In Two Charts by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

“A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.” – Warren Buffett

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here Comes the Fourth Quarter
Posted by lplresearch

Hard to believe it, but the fourth quarter starts next week! Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “History has shown that the fourth quarter has frequently been kind to equities, as it includes the usually strong and feel-good months of November and December.” Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has gained +3.9% on average and is higher 79.1% of the time, making it the strongest quarter of the year.



To break it down a little more, September is known as the worst month of the year on average; but given the fact the S&P 500 has made multiple new all-time highs this year, 2017 bucks that trend. As the table below shows, the index has been up 5.2% on average in the fourth quarter when it makes a new all-time high in September. Taking things a step further, when the S&P 500 is up more than 10% year to date heading into the fourth quarter, and it makes a new high in September (like in 2017), the returns have been even better—up 5.9% on average, boasting positive returns 11 out of 12 years.



Although we aren’t looking for a 6% jump in equities in the fourth quarter, this study suggests that the chances of a major sell-off are rather slim. In fact, should any type of a pullback occur in the fourth quarter, we would view it as a buying opportunity.

October’s First Trading Day Not So Hot over Last 21 years

Based upon data in the soon to be available Stock Trader’s Almanac for 2018 on page 86, the first trading day of October is DJIA’s third weakest of all monthly first trading days since September 1997. Only September and August have been weaker. S&P 500 has been down 10 of the last 21 years on the first trading day of October. DJIA’s record is slightly weaker with 11 declines and NASDAQ has been the worst of the group, down 12 times with an average loss of 0.38%.

Positive Worst Six Months Good Omen

A big upside move of over a 5% gain on the S&P 500 during the Worst Six Months (or the “Sell in May” period) from May through October has been followed by great gains for both frequency and magnitude. There is just one month left in the Worst Six Months. So if the market can log further gains in October and not succumb to often self-fulfilling prophecy of Octoberphobia and the curse of the 7th year that would be a solid indication for stronger gains over the next Best Six Months (November to April) and 2018.

We currently sit at +5.3% for the S&P 500 since the close of April 2017. Not bad, but not great, and right on the cusp of the level of Worst-Six-Months gains the have been more often followed by big upside moves. Look at the two tables below of “Not Bad” and “Great” Worst Six Months. Great was both followed by better Best Six Months returns than the Not Bad years.

S&P 500 Performance Following August & September Gains

As of today’s close, S&P 500 is up 1% this September. Should this gain hold through the end of the month it will be just the 15th time since 1950 that S&P 500 advanced in August and advanced in September in 68 years. The relatively few occurrences of back-to-back gains in August and September are due to the historical tendency for losses during these two months. September is the only month to have more declines than advances (since 1950).

In past years when August and September were both positive, subsequent October and November performance improved, but December performance slipped. S&P 500 historical averages in all yeas since 1950 for October, November and December stand at 0.9%, 1.5% and 1.6% respectively. Following full-year performance was also weaker on average, 4.4% versus 8.9% (since 1950).

September, Q3, YTD 2017 Asset Class Performance
Sep 29, 2017

With the third quarter coming to an end today, below is a look at our asset class performance matrix using key ETFs traded on US exchanges. This is a great way to quickly see how various asset classes are performing on a total return basis. For each ETF shown, we provide its total return for the month of September, the third quarter of 2017, and year-to-date 2017.

Notably, the areas of the market that were performing best on a year-to-date basis mostly underperformed in September, while the worst performing areas of the market this year saw the biggest bounces in September. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ending September on a strong note, but it’s still slightly down on the month. Even still, QQQ is the top performing US equity index ETF on the year with a gain of 23.56%.

Small caps had been weak compared to large caps heading into September, but they’ve soared this month. The S&P Smalllcap 600 ETF (IJR) is up 7.89% on the month, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is up 1.96%.

On a sector basis, Energy (XLE) saw by far the biggest gains at +10.08% in September. Even with the 10% gain, though, XLE is still down 6.79% year-to-date. Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), and Materials (XLB) were the next best performing sectors during the month. On the weak side, Telecom (IYZ) and Utilities (XLU) both fell 2%+, while the two consumer sectors, Technology, and Health Care were flat.

Outside of the US, we actually saw weakness in China (ASHR), Hong Kong (EWH), India (PIN), and Mexico (EWW) in September. But areas like Brazil (EWZ), Canada (EWC), France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), and Russia (RSX) saw big gains. Italy (EWI) is now the best performing country in our screen on a year-to-date basis with a gain of 31.64%.

While the emerging markets ETF (EEM) is up 28.46% YTD and 8.15% in the third quarter, it’s actually slightly down in September.

Finally, while oil (USO) gained 8% on the month, other commodities like natural gas (UNG), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV) were in the red. Fixed income ETFs also fell slightly, but they’re still up year-to-date across the board.



2017 Least Volatile Year Since 1964
Sep 29, 2017

Today marks the end of the third quarter of 2017. There have been 188 trading days so far this year, and the S&P 500 has experienced an average absolute move of +/-0.31% on these days.

As shown in the chart below, historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a daily change of +/-0.73% over the first 188 trading days of any given year.



The only year where the S&P 500 experienced a smaller daily change through 188 trading days is 1964. In that year, the index averaged a daily move of just +/-0.26%! As shown in the table below, though, the S&P 500 went through a three-year period of extremely low volatility in 1963, 1964, and 1965. 2017 now ranks as the second least volatile year through 188 trading days, but 1964 ranks 1st, 1965 ranks 3rd, and 1963 ranks 4th. The 1963-1965 period shows that 2017 doesn’t have to be a one-year outlier — this type of low volatility environment can go on for even longer.

That’s not to say vol WILL remain low, however. It can pick up again at any given moment. On the right hand side of the table below, we show the most volatile years through 188 trading days as well. The four most volatile years and six of the top seven all came in the 1930s. 1932 was the most volatile with an average daily move of +/-2.65%.

Three of the ten most volatile years have come since the year 2000, so only the youngest investors haven’t experienced a period of massive volatility. 2009 ranks 5th with an average daily move of +/-1.39% through 188 trading days. Memory is fleeting, though, and at this point it’s difficult for most investors to remember exactly how they felt during the darkest days of the Financial Crisis. The further we distance ourselves from the Crisis and the lower volatility gets, the more complacent investors will become.

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 9.29.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.1.17 - Market overview coming into Q4
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 10.2.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 10.2.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Tuesday 10.3.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 10.3.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 10.4.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 10.4.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 10.5.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 10.5.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 10.6.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Friday 10.6.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-
(I don't know why I keep posting this in here...it's not like we're gonna get a pullback/correction in this market! )

 

TSMFers come join us on our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (10/2-10/6) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• TSMF Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (10/2-10/6) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• TSMF Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/2) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================

And lastly here are our upcoming monthly and quarterly stock market polls & stock picking challenges-

First the polls-

• Monthly SPX Poll - October 2017 Sentiment <-- click there to cast your monthly vote for October!

• Quarterly SPX Poll - Q4 Sentiment (October - December) 2017 <-- click there to cast your quarterly vote for Q4!

And here are our stock picking challenge threads-

• TSMF October 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your monthly picks for October!

• TSMF Q4 2017 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your quarterly picks for Q4!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Phew! That sure was a bit overwhelming getting all of these threads updated and posted in here. Hope you guys all have a wonderful weekend!

Just re-posting @stock1234's post so it didn't get buried underneath my last post.

 

Here are the most notable ER calendar due out for this upcoming week ahead:
($COST $LEN $PAYX $PEP $STZ $MON $CALM $AZZ $AYI $CAFD $RPM $LW $YUMC $ISCA $NG $HELE $RECN $TMQ)


Costco Wholesale Corp. $164.29
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 5, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.01 per share on revenue of $41.68 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.56% with revenue increasing by 14.00%. Short interest has increased by 66.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.2% below its 200 day moving average of $164.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 23, 2017 there was some notable buying of 9,761 contracts of the $120.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.


Lennar Corp. $52.80
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 3, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $3.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 13.98%. Short interest has increased by 2.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $50.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, September 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,807 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Paychex, Inc. $59.96
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 3, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share on revenue of $815.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 3.84%. Short interest has decreased by 10.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 29, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $60.00 put expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.


PepsiCo, Inc. $111.43
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:05 AM ET on Wednesday, October 4, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.43% with revenue increasing by 2.45%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.4% below its 200 day moving average of $111.92. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 11,496 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 2.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.5% move in recent quarters.


Constellation Brands, Inc. $199.45
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 5, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.16 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.03% with revenue decreasing by 7.32%. Short interest has increased by 15.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $175.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,067 contracts of the $270.00 call expiring on Friday, January 18, 2019. The stock has averaged a 5.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Monsanto Co. $119.82
Monsanto Co. (MON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, October 4, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $2.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.32) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 642.86% with revenue decreasing by 3.98%. Short interest has decreased by 21.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% above its 200 day moving average of $114.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,643 contracts of the $119.00 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.0% move in recent quarters.


Cal-Maine Foods $41.10
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, October 2, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 57.81% with revenue increasing by 316.52%. Short interest has decreased by 12.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% above its 200 day moving average of $38.75. Option traders are pricing in a 6.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.


AZZ Inc. $48.70
AZZ Inc. (AZZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 3, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.41 per share on revenue of $194.40 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 25.45% with revenue decreasing by 0.33%. Short interest has increased by 18.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.


Acuity Brands, Inc. $171.28
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:35 AM ET on Wednesday, October 4, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.30 per share on revenue of $972.51 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.07% with revenue increasing by 5.08%. Short interest has decreased by 19.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.3% below its 200 day moving average of $193.05. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 9.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.


8point3 Energy Partners LP $15.03
8point3 Energy Partners LP (CAFD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, October 4, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $25.85 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $25.00 million to $26.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.05% with revenue decreasing by 1.02%. Short interest has decreased by 73.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.7% above its 200 day moving average of $13.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, September 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,000 contracts of the $15.00 put expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. The stock has averaged a 2.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

 

Welcome to the trading week of October and Q4! Hope you all have a really nice trading month and quarter.

 

I just wanted to quickly re-post this in here in case any of you folks missed this over this past weekend. I've just gone ahead and extended the voting polls by 2 days to hopefully give everyone a chance to chime in here and post on these threads. Hope you guys can all make it!

TSMFers come join us on our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (10/2-10/6) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• TSMF Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (10/2-10/6) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• TSMF Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/2) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote & stock pick for Monday!

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And lastly here are our upcoming monthly and quarterly stock market polls & stock picking challenges-

First the polls-

• Monthly SPX Poll - October 2017 Sentiment <-- click there to cast your monthly vote for October!

• Quarterly SPX Poll - Q4 Sentiment (October - December) 2017 <-- click there to cast your quarterly vote for Q4!

And here are our stock picking challenge threads-

• TSMF October 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your monthly picks for October!

• TSMF Q4 2017 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your quarterly picks for Q4!

 

^^ that is awesome! great to hear it @Jrich!

meanwhile, that was a pretty massive beat on the ism # this morning ... highest in 13 years



each of the subcomponents within the index were beats across the board

 

whelp, if there was ever a month to finally see a -3% pullback it would be this month here. i gotta think that if it doesn't happen in oct. then it probably won't happen the rest of this year (which would be the first time we would have gone a full year w/o pulling back -3% in history).

The Most Volatile Month of the Year
Oct 2, 2017

While it has historically been positive, October has the distinction of being known as the most volatile month of the year. What that means in a year where volatility has been non-existent remains to be seen, but if the market was going to become more unsettled at some point, history says that now is the time. Today, we wanted to show two examples of how volatility tends to spike during October. In terms of the S&P 500’s average intra-month range, going back to 1928, the percentage spread between its closing high and low during the month of October has been a staggering 8.30%. That’s more than 1.3 percentage points above the next highest month (November – 7.0%). After October and November, though, volatility really recedes with an average spread of only 5.26% in December.



As shown in the chart above, February and December tend to have the smallest intra-month ranges, but February also has the fewest amount of trading days as well, so that skews things. Another way to look at monthly volatility on a more apples to apples basis is by measuring the index’s average daily percentage move (up or down) during each trading day of the month. Using this approach, the picture is very similar; volatility tends to pick up in September, October, and November and then fades in December to close out the year. Once again, October sees the largest average daily percentage move at 91 basis points (bps). In other words, the S&P 500 has historically averaged moves of close to +/-1% on trading days throughout the month of October. The key difference between this chart and the one above is that on this basis volatility in February is right inline with the other first eight months of the year. In fact, it’s pretty striking how average daily volatility tends to be so uniform for the first eight months of the year before going haywire in the final third.

 

pulling this chart from ryan detrick-

pretty incredible that there have only been eight 1% moves in the spx for all of 2017 thus far ... that is the least number of 1% moves since '65