Stock Market Today: June 5th - 9th, 2023

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of June 5th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

(N/A.)

 

'Goldilocks' Jobs Data Drives Stock Short-Squeeze, Hammers Bonds & Gold
FRIDAY, JUN 02, 2023 - 04:00 PM

Optimism started overnight with reports that China is considering further bailout moves for its ailing real estate industry (any stimulus is good stimulus and fully fungible, right?). Then payrolls printed hot (job gains better than expected), cold (unemployment jumps significantly), and just right (hourly earnings flat) and while rate-change expectations surged hawkishly...



Source: Bloomberg

...so did stocks! Small Caps were the week's biggest winners (ripping from down over 2% on Wednesday to up 3% by the Friday close). The rest of the majors were up around 2% on the week...



Today saw the ratio of Nasdaq-to-Small-Caps hit its dotcom record high and reverse...



Source: Bloomberg

All thanks to a huge short-squeeze in the last two days...



Source: Bloomberg

Consumer Discretionary stocks outperformed while Staples lagged but all sectors ended the week green...



Source: Bloomberg

Regional bank stocks rose for the 3rd straight week, despite ongoing deposit outflows and rising usage of The Fed's emergency bailout facilities...



Before we leave cash equity-land, it's worth noting the divergence between Nasdaq and NVDA today...



Source: Bloomberg

And the fact that amid all the euphoria, NVDA has gone nowhere since the post-earnings spike...



VIX tumbled to a 14 handle today, breaking out of the three month range from 16-20...



...basically back to pre-COVID-lockdown levels...



Source: Bloomberg

The Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...



Source: Bloomberg

...driven by a surge in call volumes...



Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that the last two times that the options market has been this exuberant (or ignorant of risk) have marked local tops...



Source: Bloomberg

In spite of today's selling pressure, Treasuries were bid during this holiday-shortened week with the short-end underperforming...



Source: Bloomberg

Despite today's gains, the dollar was lower this week - breaking a three week streak of gains...



Source: Bloomberg

While BTC and ETH were the least exuberant, this week saw some strong gains in altcoins...



Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the week hovering around $27,000...



Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed but China headlines overnight sparked gains today in crude and copper (and iron ore). Gold, silver, NatGas (ugly slide though), and copper all ended the week marginally higher while oil fell...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures tagged $2000 intraweek but faded back today...



Oil prices V'd on the week with WTI back at $72 by the close...



Finally, while mega-cap tech is a long-duration asset, since the start of May, the markets have hawkishly priced higher rates (and most notably today) and tech has soared (that's not how it's supposed to work)...



Source: Bloomberg

And that decoupling is more obvious on a longer-term basis...



Source: Bloomberg

How long can that last?



But that can't happen again, right?

 

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Posted on June 2, 2023

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?

Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.

The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!

• March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
• April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000

We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.

Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.



But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.

It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.

A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.


Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.

The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.


All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years


Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.

June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).

Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).


The June Swoon?
Posted on June 1, 2023

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.

Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.

Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.



Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.



What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.



Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.

From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.

Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.

In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
Thu, Jun 1, 2023

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.

May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!

At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.

Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.

All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.

Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.



How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
Posted on May 31, 2023

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.

Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.

The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:

“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.”
But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.

Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.



When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.



There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!

Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.

But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).



This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.



Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.



Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.



All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News
Tue, May 30, 2023

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.



Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.

.

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
Tue, May 30, 2023

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.

On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).

Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.







Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2022-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 6.2.23-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 6.2.23-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for June 5th, 2023
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

 

StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StonkForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (6/5-6/9) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (6/5) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

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Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

(NONE.)

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning June 5th, 2023 <-- click there to view!

 

Morning Lineup - 6/5/23 - Sleepy Week
Mon, Jun 5, 2023

Crude oil is getting a little bit of a bounce this morning after Saudi Arabia announced over the weekend that it would cut production by a million barrels per day in July. While prices are up nearly 2%, they are well off their highs of the overnight session as resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA) kicked in. Equity futures are modestly higher following the lead of Europe where stocks are also marginally higher.

Summer doesn’t officially start for another two weeks or so, but when it comes to doldrums, it doesn’t get much quieter than the data slate for the upcoming week. On the economic calendar, two days this week – Tuesday and Friday – will have no scheduled releases, and on the remaining three days, the only reports of note will be ISM Services and Factory Orders (Monday), Consumer Credit (Wednesday), and Jobless Claims (Thursday). The earnings calendar is equally light as the only two earnings reports on the calendar for S&P 500 companies are JM Smucker (SJM) on Tuesday morning and Campbell Soup (CPB) on Wednesday: soup and jelly. So, not only do we have a minuscule number of companies reporting, but they could also be among the most 'boring' stocks in the market when it comes to earnings.

Fed speakers and politicians are always good for a few tape bombs throughout the week, but not this week. The Fed entered its blackout period ahead of the June meeting over the weekend, and with the debt deal getting signed into law, there isn’t much for politicians to talk about either. Who knows what the future will bring, but if the calendar is right, prepare for a quiet week.

With the lack of data to focus on here in the US, this morning we wanted to highlight the overnight release of inflation data in Turkey. If you thought we had it bad with inflation here in the US, Consumer Prices in Turkey rose 39.59% on a year-year basis in May, and as bad as that may sound, it was the seventh month in a row of declines and is now down by more than half from its peak of 85.51% in October. Just as inflation on the way up has been a global phenomenon, inflation on the way down (from varying levels) has also been a global trend.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, June 5th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, June the 6th, 2023!

 

Good Tuesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead today!

 

Morning Lineup - 6/6/23 - No News is Good News
Tue, Jun 6, 2023

Equity futures have had a quiet session overnight on little news flow. The only major news of note was a surprise 25 bps rate hike in Australia. Investors are still digesting the virtual headset that Apple unveiled at WWDC yesterday, and while a charitable description is that it is a work in progress, hopes are that future versions will show improvement in form, function, and price. After trading lower after the headset was unveiled, shares of AAPL are trading down over 2.5% this morning. In case you missed it yesterday, we published a BIG Tips report on how AAPL stock historically performs before, during, and after the annual WWDC conference.

There’s no economic data to speak of in the US, but in Europe this morning, Retail Sales for the EU were unchanged, which was weaker than 0.2% m/m growth that was expected. Factory Orders in Germany declined 0.4% which was much worse than expectations for 2.8% growth. In Spain, Industrial Production also declined by 0.9% compared to consensus forecasts of 1.7%, so a weak showing overall. Maybe the lack of economic news in the US today is a good thing!

We discussed oil’s lack of ability to rally on what should be considered good news for prices last Wednesday, but considering the commodity’s action in reaction to the weekend news that Saudi Arabia would cut supply, it’s worth updating again. First, OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut in early April which caused prices to immediately spike by over 8% and a total ultimate gain of just over 10%. The gains didn’t last long, though. The rally stalled out just shy of the 200-day moving average, and by the end of the month, the gains had all been erased.

In late May, a Saudi minister warned speculators who were short oil to ‘watch out’. Those comments were good for a rally of less than 4% lasting less than two days, and after stalling out at the 50-day moving average (DMA) the gains were erased within a day. That brings us to the past weekend when Saudi Arabia announced it would cut production by 1 million barrels per day in July. That production cut was good for a 4%+ rally in crude oil when futures markets opened for trading Sunday evening, but by the end of the trading day Monday, crude oil was already below its Friday close, and this morning crude oil is down another 2%.

A key factor behind all three rallies and their ultimate bearish reversals is that they all ended abruptly at a key moving average. During bull markets, moving averages tend to act as support in any pullback, during bear markets, they act to squash any rally right in its tracks.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, June 6th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, June the 7th, 2023!

 

Good Wednesday morning StonkForumers!

Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
<-- click there to read!

Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead today!