Stock Market Today: June 12th - 16th, 2023

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Wednesday, June 14th, 2023.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are about 15 minutes away from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Thursday, June the 15th, 2023!

 

Bespoke's Morning Lineup - 6/15/23 - Data Dump
Thu, Jun 15, 2023

China’s leader Xi Jinping turns 70 years old today, which in American politics would make him a spring chicken, and who better to celebrate his birthday with than US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Bill Gates who are both scheduled to visit with him in the next week. It’s just too bad that Xi couldn’t get some better economic data to celebrate over. Overnight, China reported that youth unemployment had hit a record high of 20.8%, but the PBoC’s gift to China’s leader came in the form of a rate cut in its key policy medium-term lending rate from 2.75% down to 2.65%.

In the US this morning, futures point to a lower open as European equities trade lower and the ECB just hiked rates. There was just a ton of economic data released, and the key items in the data were that initial jobless claims came in higher than expected (262K) and at their highest level since October 2021, Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing both surprised to the upside with positive readings, but the Philly Fed remained negative coming in at -13.7 vs forecasts for a reading of -14.0. Basically, there was a little for everyone, but more signs of strength than weakness.

For the last few months, investors have been waiting for the rally to broaden away from the mega-caps to the smaller members. While we started to see some of that in the first week of June, the mega-caps have moved back into the lead in the last week. To illustrate, the chart below shows the YTD performance spread between the S&P 500 market cap and equal-weighted indices. Believe it or not, earlier in the year, the equal weight index was actually outperforming the market cap-weighted index, but by February they were pretty much back to even. In early March, though, we all know what happened, and ever since SVB Financial started to collapse, the market cap-weighted index has blown the equal-weighted index out of the water.

At the start of June, the YTD performance spread between the two indices had widened out to a peak of 10.62 percentage points. In the week that followed, the spread narrowed down to as low as 8.62 percentage points, but this week the mega caps have once again started to take the lead. After yesterday’s trading, the spread had once again widened out above 10 percentage points. At some point, the rally will broaden out, but up until this point, there have been more than a few false starts.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, June 15th, 2023.

 

Hey guys just a super quick reminder in that US market will be shuttered on this coming Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.

Meanwhile, I will be completely AWOL starting from next Wednesday and will not be able to update threads or games until I am back (fwiw, I'm heading off to Orlando with the fam. for the week). I should be back to normal routines again the week after next.

I hope you all will have a great long 3-day weekend ahead and will catch up with you guys in a couple of weeks. Thanks again as always for keeping these threads active @stock1234!! Really cannot say it enough. I'm not really monitoring and/or trading the markets much nowadays anymore. But, I always come around to update the threads here to keep the forum looking at least somewhat active.

Have a great start to your summer guys!!

 

BTW, I've already gone ahead and setup the game threads for the next 2 weeks out as I likely wouldn't be able to do it next week. Will catch up with you guys in a couple of weeks.

 

Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Friday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 2 hours from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Friday, June the 16th, 2023!

 

Morning Lineup - 6/16/23 - One Way Ride
Fri, Jun 16, 2023

It's looking like a flat open to cap off what has been a very strong week, and once again the Nasdaq is outperforming after Adobe (ADBE) reported better-than-expected earnings last night after the close. It's a quiet day for data, but Fed Governor Waller had some relatively hawkish comments and the University of Michigan Sentiment report will be released at 10 AM. The key item to watch in that report is inflation expectations.

139 years ago today, the first roller coaster in the United States opened in Coney Island, and for ‘just a nickel’, customers could get on board for the thrill of riding six miles an hour through twists and turns of metal and wood. Roller coasters have come a long way since their first introduction in terms of both speed and ups and downs, but If the stock market is a ride, these days the only direction it goes is up.

The S&P 500 closed back above 4400 yesterday and finished in positive territory for the eighth time in ten days. For the last ten trading days now, the S&P 500 has closed more than two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average (what we call short-term ‘extreme’ overbought levels), and yesterday almost closed three standard deviations above its 50-DMA (+2.97). That was its most overbought close since November 2004 which was right after George W Bush won re-election over John Kerry.

Streaks of at least ten trading days of extreme overbought (OB) readings for the S&P 500 haven’t been especially common over the years. Since 1952 when the five-trading day week started, there have now been 35 such streaks. The most recent was in April 2021, and the longest was 17 trading days in December 1995.



Looking at more recent history, the chart below shows the S&P 500 going back to 2000 with the red dots showing each prior ten-day streak of extreme overbought closes (each dot represents the 10th trading day in the streak). While none of these prior streaks occurred near a market low, they didn’t represent short-term or long-term peaks either. The closest any of these streaks occurred to a peak was in April 2021- more than seven months before the ultimate peak.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Friday, June 16th, 2023.

(TO BE POSTED AFTER TODAY'S MARKET CLOSE.)