Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of August 23rd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: S&P Sectors End of Week: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: JD.com, Palo Alto Networks, Madison Square Garden 10 a.m. Existing home sales Tuesday Earnings: Best Buy, Bank of Montreal, Nordstrom, Intuit, Urban Outfitters, Toll Brothers, Advanced Auto Parts, Medtronic 10 a.m. New home sales Wednesday Earnings: Salesforce.com, Royal Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Box, Autodesk, Express, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Shoe Carnival, NetApp, Splunk, Pure Storage 8:30 a.m. Durable goods Thursday Earnings: HP, Dell, Gap, Abercrombie and Fitch, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Hain’s Celestial, Ulta Beauty, Peloton, Workday, VMWare, Ollie’s Bargain, Marvell, Toronto-Dominion, Sanderson Farms 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Q2 GDP Friday Earnings: Big Lots 8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending 8:30 a.m. Advanced trade 10 a.m. Consumer spending (final August)
Op-Ex Panic-Bid Rescues Global Stocks From Worst Week In 6 Months As Fed Taper Looms Not a good week in the real world - Bad retail sales data, slumping consumer and business confidence, COVID cases surging (but not deaths), Delta fearmongering max'd out, oh, and US lost a war... Global economic data is disappointing at its fastest pace since the COVID lockdowns began... Source: Bloomberg Sigh... Time for some reflection... And in case you were wondering why "investors" decided today was the day to panic-bid stocks no matter what... they didn't - it was options expiration bullshit once again as 20% of Gamma evaporates at the close and market-makers are squeezed into that drop... Source: Bloomberg But on the week, all the US majors were down with Small Caps worst (even though the algos did their very best to back Nasdaq back to even)... Today's manic-ramp lifted the S&P back to FOMC Minutes levels, but it could not get past that... The Golden Dragon China ETF suffered its eighth straight weekly loss - its longest losing streak in a decade... Source: Bloomberg European stocks suffered their biggest weekly loss since February (with France and Italy hit worst)... Source: Bloomberg And The MSCI World Index was down significantly ahead of today's US trading, on course for its biggest weekly fall since February, but the op-ex based panic-bid today rescued them... Source: Bloomberg Energy stocks were clubbed like a baby seal this week while Utes an Healthcare ended the week with gains... Source: Bloomberg Which is confirmed by the fact that cyclical stocks suffered most and the rush into defensives dominated gains... Source: Bloomberg Growth stocks soared in the last two days after The FOMC's statement sparked some weakness Source: Bloomberg Tech outperformed, helped in large part by a somewhat insane 6% vertical ramp in MSFT in the last two days... Treasuries were mixed this week with the long-end bid (30Y -6bps) and short-end higher in yield (2Y +2bps)... Source: Bloomberg The 30Y yield was a 'death cross' - meaning yields are expected to drop further - this week.. Source: Bloomberg The dollar soared this week (rising every day of the week). This was the second biggest weekly gain for the dollar since Sept 2020... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were mixed on the week after early weakness was turned around with a serious bid for the major coins in the last two days (helped by COIN's news)... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin broke out above its recent range after Coinbase announced it was buying more... Source: Bloomberg Ethereum is back at the upper end of its recent range Source: Bloomberg Big rebound to end the week in Iron Ore which was on its way to the worst week since 2019... Source: Bloomberg Oil's down for 7 straight days - the longest losing streak since the April 2020 COVID lockdown collapse - with WTI plunging to a $61 handle by the close (and second worst week of the year)... As Rabobank notes, oil markets were hit by waves of selling pressure this week as short-term systematic funds pivoted from liquidating “long” oil futures positions to building outright “short” positions. This mechanical selling was evident at times, and our own proprietary CTA model further confirmed this notion, as several key signals flipped from "long" to "short" in the oil complex mid-week. More specifically, it was the short-term momentum and some trend signals that turned bearish this week. Furthermore, medium-term momentum signals are also at risk of flipping from "long" to "short" over the coming days should prices continue to weaken, which could bring another wave of aggressive systematic selling to the oil market before the pressure subsides. Gold held on to gains this week after last week's flash-crash but was unable to break back above $1800 Finally, while markets melted up today, we do note that the real fear index is flashing a little red. Implied correlation spiked this week as traders reached for macro-overlays over single-stock hedges... Source: Bloomberg By implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment - implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment. As a reminder, implied correlation, a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell, the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names (a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). The higher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant downside move (since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur). VIX remains useful in a self-fulfilling way since so many market participants watch it but with ETFs impacting the short-dated vol markets more and more, we suspect implied correlation (with its 'relative' measure of risk) may well become more focused upon. While the S&P 500 may only be 2% or so from its record highs, the average stock is down 15.8% from its 52-week highs... h/t @bespokeinvest And while we are on that topic, breadth is abysmal in the broad stock market... Source: Bloomberg And today saw Money Flow entirely decouple from price in S&P futs...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2021- S&P sectors for the past week-
September Almanac: DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Worst Month of Year Start of the business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school once made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). After four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup, S&P 500 was down five Septembers straight from 1999-2003. In the 17 years since, S&P 500 has advanced 11 times in September and declined six times. In post-election years, September’s overall rank improves modestly in post-election years going back to 1953 (third or fourth worst month depending on index). Average losses are little changed. Although September 2001 does influence the average declines, the fact remains DJIA and S&P 500 have declined in 9 of the last 17 post-election year Septembers. Russell 2000 has the best post-election year record, up seven times in 10 years. US Dollar Breaks Out Fri, Aug 20, 2021 After roughly two months of declines, at the end of May the US dollar (proxied by Bloomberg's dollar index) found support around the lows from the first week of the year. Since then, the dollar has rallied 4.13%, moving back above its moving averages in the process which have also acted as support ever since. This week alone the dollar has gained 1.4%, and that upward move brings the dollar to the highest levels since early November and the early spring highs when the index stopped short of its 200-DMA. Taking a step back to look at the past five years, those lows that were reached earlier this spring and at the start of the year can actually be traced all the way back to early 2018 lows. Similarly, the recent highs that were taken out this week are around the same levels as the early 2016 lows. With the dollar now having broken out, it is no longer at the low end of that five-year range. One of the Best Weeks of the Year for Claims Thu, Aug 19, 2021 Initial jobless claims hit another pandemic low this week dropping to 348K from last week's 2K upwardly revised reading of 377K. That was also 16K below expectations and the first better than expected print in six weeks. While recent releases have disappointed relative to forecasts, this week did mark the fourth week in a row that claims have dropped. That is the longest stretch of consecutive declines since a six-week streak ending on June 4th. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims fell to 308.57K which is again the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile, pandemic unemployment assistance claims ticked up to 109.38K from 103.85K the previous week. The main state driving that increase was Ohio which saw claims more than double. Maryland, Oregon, and California were the other states to have seen the biggest increase in PUA claims. Those increases also come even as the program is slated to end in just two weeks on September 4th. As for the decline in claims for unadjusted regular state programs, we would caution against reading too deep into the number on account of strong seasonal tailwinds. As shown below, the current week of the year (33rd) is tied at second for the week of the year that most often sees claims decline. As shown in the second chart below, there has only been one year, last year, in which claims were higher week over week in the 33rd week of the year. Seasonally adjusted continuing claims missed expectations by 20K this week, but at 2.82 million, this week's reading still marked a third consecutive decline. As such, claims are still at the lowest level of the pandemic and are closing in on coming within one million from the March 2020 levels. While the most recent reading on continuing claims was lower, purely looking at regular state claims does not show the full picture. Including all other programs creates some additional lag meaning the most recent data is through the last week of July. Through that week, total claims fell below 12 million for the first time of the pandemic, totaling 11.76 million. Driving that decline were 79.9K and 66.08K declines in regular state and PEUC programs. The biggest decline came from the extended benefits program, though. That program saw claims get more than cut in half after a significant uptick the previous week. Throughout the month of July, claim counts for the extended benefits program were particularly volatile. They started off the month with a sub-100K reading of 98.4K, then rose all the way up to 343.5K, dropped to 239.6K, then rose again to 398.8K before falling back down to 177.9K in the week of July 30th. Homebuilder Sentiment: The Next Big Miss Tue, Aug 17, 2021 Prior to the pandemic, the NAHB's record monthly reading on homebuilder sentiment was back in December 1998 when the index hit 78. Last November, the sentiment bar was set even higher when the index reached 90. Since then, though, two-thirds of the releases have declined month over month. The most recent release saw the index drop five more points to 75, marking the first time in a year that homebuilder sentiment came in below the pre-pandemic record high. Additionally, August's 5-point drop is the largest one-month decline since last April when the index collapsed by a record 42 points at the onset of the pandemic. It is also tied with a dozen other months for the seventh-largest month-over-month decline in the history of the index going back to 1985. While the release indicates worsening, but still historically strong, sentiment among homebuilders, it can be added to the growing list of economic indicators that have been coming in well below expectations. As we noted in last week's Bespoke Report, Citi Surprise indices measuring how economic data comes in relative to estimates tipped into negative territory last week. That was as the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey saw the biggest miss relative to expectations on record. Today's reading on homebuilders was not far off those results. The five-point miss relative to expectations was the largest since last April and is tied with 4 other months (April and May 2006, November 2008, and October 2014) for the six largest miss going back to at least 2003. Driving the decline in the headline reading were five-point drops in present sales and traffic. Even though there has been deterioration in those readings on current conditions, future sales have held up better going unchanged at 81. Looking across regions, the ones that have seen COVID cases rising the most of late, namely in the South and Midwest, generally saw sharp drops in homebuilder sentiment in August although those are in the context of longer-term declines. The Northeast and the West, on the other hand, are off of their peaks but each region did show an uptick in sentiment for August.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.20.21- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 8.20.21-
Stock Market Analysis Video for August 20th, 2021 Video from Alphatrends (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.22.21 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 8.23.21 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 8.23.21 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.24.21 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.24.21 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.25.21 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.25.21 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.26.21 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.26.21 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.27.21 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.27.21 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! (NONE.)
StonkForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (8/23-8/27) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this week! Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (8/23) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for Monday! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($JD $CRM $BBY $PTON $SNOW $XPEV $DKS $PDD $MDT $ANF $AAP $DG $EXPR $MRVL $ULTA $PANW $ITRN $DLTR $INTU $MSGE $MARK $COTY $WDAY $JWN $SPLK $CTRN $BURL $GPS $ADSK $MOMO $FLWS $BMO $URBN $BOX $SAFM $HPQ $HTHT $WSM $TOL $TD $BNS $DELL) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning August 23rd, 2021 <-- click there to view!
Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Monday to all of you! And welcome to the first trading day of the new week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, August the 23rd, 2021!
BTFD is back Looks like some are crediting the gains to Powell might not announce tapering this Friday and instead he will show his concerns about the Delta variant, we will see what happens on Friday
Whelp, here's my official postmortem, or concession if you will, on my big market call from early last week. With today's new ATH print on the SPX now "officially" nullifies my call today lmao. Honestly didn't think it would take this quick...admittedly it didn't even last a full 7 days, and we're right back at ATHs again! Glad to finally be done with that though, so now I can move on from this travesty of a call lol. Lesson learned in all of this? No matter how strong and convincing your thoughts may be on an impending market pullback/correction (and admittedly I did have quite a few legit reasons, as it wasn't entirely all "feels" if you will). But, as one person so eloquently put it on the Discord chat server. "The markets can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent". Truer words were never spoken! I feel like that's 100% spot on imo. Been in this gig since about 2006 (15 years now) and it's crazy to me that even up to this point in my career in the markets that I can still make such a dubious call like that lol. Despite having quite a bit of data and charts to back up my call, it just didn't matter, as I could throw all of that out the window with the kitchen sink! It really does not matter so long as the FED is in this gig and doing its thang lol. The BTFD continues to remain alive and well. Rinse and repeat. Onto the next... But, at least I'm glad to finally have that out of my way now so I can get back and just concentrating on to what I know and do better, which is not making big calls like that lol. Sorry about that you guys! But, I just wanted to make sure that I make myself as transparent with any calls I make on here as possible. I will 100% own up to any bad calls made here, and will not shy away or keep quiet about it, like maybe some folks on the internet haha.
LOL all good Cy. To be honest I have made bad calls more often than good calls myself on the market, this is all for fun Ultimately nobody should make trades based on just what people said on the forum, no harm at all If Powell says anything about delaying the taper this Friday though, I can see the rip your face off rally happening
Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, August 23rd, 2021.
Shat....... I was buying the VIX for what felt like the entire last summer(2020). Waste of money... All we can hope for is to build up enough of a buffer, that when the poop does hit the fan it doesn't end up being something crazy, like a 50% tank. After getting out of my pos ATT, I'm sitting on cash and gun shy about putting it to work. When in doubt... Buy Apple!
Top of the morning StonkForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, August the 24th, 2021!
Nasdaq Crosses Another 1,000 Point Threshold Tue, Aug 24, 2021 It won't be official until the close, but with the Nasdaq crossing 15,000 for the first time today, it's on pace to cross its third 1,000 point threshold this year and the sixth since the pandemic began in early 2020. The table below lists each 1,000 point threshold that the Nasdaq has crossed over time along with the first day that it crossed that threshold, the number of days since the prior cross, what percentage that 1,000 point consists of relative to the prior threshold, and then how many upside and downside crosses the Nasdaq has had around that level on a closing basis. Of all the 1,000 point thresholds the Nasdaq has crossed over time, the only one that it never traded back below after crossing it was 6,000 back in April 2017. Besides 1,000, that was also the 1,000 point threshold that took the longest to cross above. After first crossing 5,000 back in March 2000, it took 6,256 days for the Nasdaq to top 6,000. Since then, though, the Nasdaq has been making quick work of 1,000 point thresholds. With the exception of the 486-day gap between 8K and 9K, every other 1,000-point threshold since 6,000 has taken less than a year to cross. Even in the midst of a global pandemic, it took the Nasdaq less than six months to get from 9,000 to 10,000. The long-term chart of the Nasdaq below includes red dots to show each time the Nasdaq first crossed a 1,000 point threshold along with the number of days for each one. Looking at the chart above may give you a feeling of lightheadedness given the seemingly parabolic nature of the last few years. An important thing to keep in mind, though, is that as a percentage of the index's price level, every 1,000 point threshold represents a smaller move in percentage terms. While the move from 9K to 10K represented a move of over 11%, the move from 14K to 15K represents only a little more than 7%. Looking at this chart on a log scale where each label on the y-axis represents a doubling of the index shows how modest the recent 1,000 point thresholds have been relative to earlier ones. Think about it this way, in the less than two years between when the Nasdaq first crossed 2K to when it crossed 5K for the first time (four different 1,000 point thresholds), it rallied 150%. Over the last four years, though, the Nasdaq has crossed 10 different 1,000-point thresholds, but the gain has also only been 150%.
Today could be the 9th closing ATH for the SPX this month. The most for any August years since...1929 (yes, the year of the first real major stock market crash ever lol).