Stock Market Today: January 25th - 29th, 2021

Welcome StonkForums to the trading week of January 25th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets on Friday:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:


What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Earnings:Kimberly-Clark, Yamana Gold, Steel Dynamics

• Tuesday

FOMC meeting begins

Earnings:Microsoft, 3M, Johnson & Johnson, American Express, Starbucks, Raytheon, Verizon, Texas Instruments, Lockheed Martin, UBS, D.R. Horton, General Electric, Novartis, UBS, Freeport-McMoRan, Paccar, Capital One, Advanced Micro Devices

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

• Wednesday

Earnings: Facebook, Apple,Tesla,AT&T,Boeing, General Dynamics, Whirlpool, Norfolk Southern, Blackstone, Nasdaq, Anthem, Abbott Labs, Textron, Corning, Hess, VF Corp, Samsung, Teradyne, Canadian Pacific Railway, Raymond James, Levi Strauss

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

2 p.m. Fed rate decision

2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

• Thursday

Earnings: McDonald’s, Dow, Visa, Mondelez, Northrop Grumman, Comcast, Mastercard, PulteGroup, Southwest Air, Altria,American Airlines, JetBlue, T.Rowe Price, McCormick, Brunswick, Marsh and McLennan, Sherwin-Williams, Stanley Black and Decker, Canon, Valero Energy, Beazer Homes

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Q4 Real GDP

10:00 a.m. Advance economic indicators

10:00 a.m. New home sales

• Friday

Earnings:Chevron,Caterpillar,Colgate-Palmolive, SAP, Eli Lilly,Honeywell, Weyerhaeuser, Synchrony Financial, Booz Allen, LyondellBasell, Church and Dwight

8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

 

Biden's Big Week Buoys Big-Tech & Bullion, Batters Bitcoin & Black Gold
A mixed bag this holiday-shortened week. Biden's big week saw big-tech stocks soar as bitcoin was battered, gold gained along with bonds, oil slipped lower along with the dollar, and growth/value stocks defended a crucial line in the sand as COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths improved dramatically.



That's the ticket!




This was good for a laugh today (if you weren't short)...



That is a record high... for Gamestop!!





Source: Bloomberg

And if you really want to laugh, there's this!!



Source: Bloomberg

That is a 5% surge off the lows today



Source: Bloomberg

As we explained...

Growth/Value was rescued from a critical support level once again, with Growth's late-week gains erasing all Value's relative YTD gains...



Source: Bloomberg

Serious swings in Value/Momentum this week also...



Source: Bloomberg

Is 2021 going to be a 2010 redux?



Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were mixed also on the week with long-end yields up by around 2bps and short-end down around 1-2bps...



Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields continued to trade in a tight range since the first few days of the year...



Source: Bloomberg

The brief rebound in the dollar to start the year is over...



Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum closed higher on the week but the rest of the big cryptos were lower...



Source: Bloomberg

Lots of headlines about Bitcoin's drop (worst week since September) but few noted that BTC bounced back by 17% today off unch YTD...



Source: Bloomberg

Gold was monkeyhammered a few times this week but was bid each time to end with its best week of the year...



Gold's outperformance of Bitcoin this week erased the cryptocurrency's relative gains YTD. But as the chart shows, when it got close to unch YTD, Bitcoin sudenly became bid...



Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were lower on the week, but WTI seemed to find support around $52...



Finally, as we noted earlier, the incredible surge in "puts sold to open"...



Offer an ominous sign of short-term returns...



Source: Bloomberg

And as today's opex went off, the put-call ratio spiked dramatically...



Source: Bloomberg

And while Biden seemed to claim that things are about to get worse, it appears like things are getting better... fast!



Source: Bloomberg

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

February Almanac: Worst S&P 500 Month of Post-Election Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.0% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that benchmark.

February’s post-election year performance since 1950 is miserable, ranking dead last for S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Average losses have been sizable: -1.5%, -3.3% and -1.6% respectively. February ranks tenth for DJIA in post-election years with an average loss of 1.1%. February 2001 and 2009 were exceptionally brutal. NASDAQ dropped 22.4% in February 2001, its third worst monthly loss ever.

Housing Closes Out 2020 on a Positive Note
Thu, Jan 21, 2021

Housing closed out 2020 on an extremely positive note as both Housing Starts and Building Permits topped forecasts by more than 100K. Since 2002, there have only been ten other months where both reports topped forecasts by more than 100K, and today's report was the third time it happened in the last 12 months!

The table below breaks down the details of the December report in terms of both single and multi-family units and regions. One of the clear areas of strength was in single-family starts and permits. On a y/y basis, both were up over 25%, and relative to November, starts were up 12% while permits rose 7.8%. Multi-family units, meanwhile, both saw declines with notable weakness in multi-family starts. On a regional basis, most areas of the country saw strength although starts and permits were down m/m and y/y in the Northeast.



Given its overall size, you can easily make the case that as goes the housing market, so goes the economy, and history tends to bear this out. The top chart shows the 12-month average of Housing Starts going back to 1967 with recessions overlaid in gray. With the exception of the latest downturn, every prior recession was preceded by a rollover in Housing Starts. Given the sudden onset of the pandemic, housing played no role in the current recession, but once the lockdowns started, the residential housing market wasn't immune to the weakness. Whatever weakness there was didn't last long. As shown in the second chart below, less than a year after the recession started, both the 12-month average of Housing Starts and Building Permits have now moved back above their pre-pandemic highs.





While Housing Starts and Building Permits are both at new multi-year highs, on a population-adjusted basis, they're still closer to levels typically associated with recessions than expansions. After adjusting for population growth, Housing Starts would need to come in above 1.9 million just to keep up with population growth.



As for the stocks of homebuilders, the performance of the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB) tends to track trends in Housing Starts and Building Permits pretty closely, so it's no surprise that it also traded to a new all-time high on Thursday for the first time in three months. As long as interest rates don't see a sudden spike higher, trends in place for the residential housing market remain positive.





Impressive Reading From The Philly Fed
Thu, Jan 21, 2021

Of the several strong economic data points to have been released today, perhaps the strongest relative to expectations was the Philadelphia Fed's monthly survey on the region's manufacturing sector. The headline index was expected to rise from 11.1 to 11.8. Instead, it more than doubled expectations rising to 26.5. That is the highest reading since last February just before the pandemic's full impact was felt. Overall, the report showed the region's manufacturing sector experienced strong growth in January with accelerating growth in demand, prices, and employment.



In the table below, we break down the various sub-indices of the report. Nearly every component experienced a month over month increase that ranks in the top few percentiles of their respective histories. That also left most indices in the top decile of their historic ranges. That compares to last month in which most readings were far more moderate. Although most indices for current conditions saw impressive readings, the indices for expectations were much more mixed with a larger number falling than rising MoM. Given every one of these indices remains positive, though, the region's manufacturers still have an overall optimistic outlook.



Of all the sub-indices, the New Orders index saw one of the most significant increases in January rising 28.1 percentage points from a barely expansionary reading of 1.9 to a much stronger reading of 30. Going back over the past couple of years, the only times this index was higher was in October (32.9) and February (30.7) of last year. That indicates very strong new order growth after a slowdown in December.

Similarly, the index for unfilled orders was the only index in contractionary territory (those below zero) last month, but there was a massive improvement this month as the index surged to a reading of 25.6. Both the level of the index and the monthly change stand in the top 1% of all readings going back through the history of the survey which began in 1968. The only times the index has been higher was in August of 1972 (26) and January (29.6) and March (45.1) of 1973. In other words, New Orders remain strong while Unfilled Orders are bouncing back at a historic rate,



While the unfilled orders index reached one of the highest readings on record, the index for Delivery Times actually hit a new record. The index rose 12.7 points to a record high of 30; surpassing the previous record of 21.3 from October of 2017. Higher readings in this index indicate that supplier lead times are longer and vice versa for lower readings. That means a historic number of respondents are seeing delays in their supply chains.



Perhaps to get ahead of the growing demand and longer lead times, businesses are also reporting higher inventories. That index rose to the highest level since September of 2019 which also stands in the top 5% of all readings in the history of the data.



Given the stronger demand and tighter supply lines, prices have also been accelerating. Both Prices Paid and Prices Received experienced some of their largest monthly increases on record after rising 20.5 points in January. At 45.4, the index for Prices Paid is at its highest level since August of 2018. Those price increases are also getting passed along to customers as the index for Prices Received is at the highest level since February of 1989. These results echo some other hints of more inflationary conditions like the New York Fed's readings last week and the ISM services and manufacturing report earlier this month.



Real-time COVID-19 Data Suggests Final Peak May Be Here

It has been exactly one year since the first COVID-19 case in the United States was reported to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and to say the world as we know it has been completely changed would be an understatement. Thankfully, we may finally be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

With the rollout of multiple approved vaccines underway, some real-time COVID-19 indicators and mobility-related data points have put in their final highs (or lows). As shown in the LPL chart of the day, restrictions implemented at the end of 2020 appear to be helping to curb the spread of the virus, as new COVID-19 cases and those currently hospitalized have been on the decline.



Meanwhile, the positive rate has also declined despite daily tests near all-time highs.



However, while COVID-19 data has been improving, real-time economic indicators like OpenTable reservations show businesses continue to struggle as restrictions on activities to curb the late-2020 surge remain in place.



Similarly, the number of people getting on airlines has fallen back to mid-October levels after the holiday bump. Domestic air travel activity remains 64% below pre-pandemic levels.



“The good news is that cases are declining and vaccine distribution is increasing, but service industries and air travel are clearly still under a lot of pressure,” said LPL Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “While manufacturing and housing data remain firm, recent data on the job market and consumer spending have been choppy.”

It’s very encouraging to see COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations improving, a trend we hope will continue until this pandemic ends for good. In the meantime, we will continue to follow high-frequency data to gauge the recovery’s progress. The next report card comes next week with the release of fourth quarter 2020 gross domestic product (GDP).

We’ll also be closely watching developments in Washington, DC. The economy’s bridge to the other side will likely get stronger in the coming weeks with more stimulus—potentially to the tune of another $700 billion to $1 trillion.

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 1.22.21-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 1.22.21-

 

​

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for January 22nd, 2021
Video from AlphaTrends
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.24.21
Video from ShadowTrader

 

​

Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 1.25.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 1.25.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 1.26.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 1.26.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 1.27.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 1.27.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 1.28.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 1.28.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 1.29.21 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 1.29.21 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($AAPL $TSLA $AMD $FB $MSFT $JNJ $GE $BA $MMM $T $LMT $VZ $DHI $AAL $MCD $ABT $FCX $KMB $AXP $RTX $NEE $XLNX $V $SBUX $CAT $LRCX $MA $OFG $NOW $NDAQ $NVS $PLD $PII $MKC $BMRC $ALK $SHW $TXN $NEP $LUV $BOH $LLY $SWKS $PGR $PHG)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning January 25th, 2021 <-- click there to view!

 

are we about to see some more GME craziness once again today?

man, i gotta admit to y'all's, but i really don't understand all the hype with that one as of late. perhaps because i have largely been out of tune with the market this week and need to be better informed.

i already posed the same question in our GME thread, but if anyone would like to enlighten me as to what exactly is going on there, that would be very much appreciated!

 

Yessss. Steve in da house!

Really is so awesome seeing ya pop in here Steve! It's funny too cause I was actually going to hit up Twitter like literally right now, to see if I could reach you to see how you were doing. It's been a long while, and I missed hearing from you lots!

Very interesting times in the market lately! And I feel it's only going to get even more interesting as we progress through the year haha.

 

Really great to see you guys in here @Ken34 @stock1234 thanks for joining (or should I say, "returning" again, since I see your old user accounts still worked )

Funny, I didn't know if I had a backup of this forum actually. I believe I had first launched this board back in 2017 (4 years ago. wow!). I honestly didn't think I was ever going to be needing to use it again. But, unfortunately, some things had happened between the head admin of that site and myself this week. I won't get into the full details here, but I will be more than happy to share that with you guys privately if you'd all like to know.

But yeah, unfortunately I needed to part ways with Stockaholics, and completely disassociate myself permanently with the person running that forum. Very sorry that this happened so abrupt too. But, it was honestly something I really needed to do at this time.

But yes, it is really good to see that you had managed to resurrect your user account here. I didn't know if that was still going to work honestly lol.

Thanks for all your help and support over my tenure on HSM and Stockaholics. Did you guys know that I had been apart of that community since 2006? 15 years. Yikes!

But, I guess with all good things, they don't last forever.

Anyway, sorry to bombard this thread with all of this off-topic topic stuff, so I will gladly take it to PM if any of you would like to discuss what happened here this week.

 

Wow! I hadn't been paying much attention at all to the market today, largely due to a lot of the aforementioned distractions that I had mentioned in my previous post. It has been a while since we have seen a red day quite like this one for the broad indices.