Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for October 16th - 20th

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of October 16th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:




Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

Earnings: Netflix, Charles Schwab, Celanese, CSX, Idex, Ruby Tuesday

8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing

• Tuesday

Earnings: Goldman Sachs, Progressive, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth, IBM, Harley-Davidson, Pinnacle Financial, Lam Research, Canadian Pacific Railway, Cree, Comerica

8:30 a.m. Import prices

8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

9:15 a.m. Industrial production

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

4:00 p.m. TIC data

• Wednesday

Earnings: American Express, Abbott Labs, US Bancorp, M&T Bank, United Continental, Alcoa, Northern Trust, Steel Dynamics, Kaiser Aluminum, SLM, Crown Holdings, Supervalu, Hexcel, Texas Capital Bancshares

8:00 a.m. New York Fed President William Dudley on economies of New York and Texas

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

2:00 p.m. Beige book

• Thursday

Earnings: Travelers, Verizon, Blackstone, Bank of New York Mellon, Alliance Data, Danaher, ETrade, PayPal, NCR, FNB, KeyCorp, Nucor, SAP, Philip Morris, Taiwan Semiconductor, Intuitive Surgical, Hawaiian Holdings

8:30 a.m. Initial claims

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

• Friday

Earnings: General Electric, Honeywell, Procter & Gamble,Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, SunTrust, Synchrony Financial, Kansas City Southern, Cleveland-Cliffs, Citizens Financial, LM Ericsson

10:00 a.m. Existing homes

2:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on global regulatory structure

 

Record High Stocks, Record Low VIX But Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Bid
Buy it all... On the week - Stocks are up, Treasury Bonds are up, Corporate Bonds are up, Gold is up, Bitcoin is up, and WTI Crude is up...


Before we get started - consider the following...




And perhaps this will help explain last week's action compared to this week's? Everything reversed trend when China got back from holiday...




Small Caps ended the week red - the first drop in 6 weeks - as Trannies outperformed (just eedging the Dow on the week), but the rest of the market traded in a very narrow range this week...





In fact, it appears Russell 2000 has died. After surging 12% higher in the preior month in a seemingly unstoppable surge, it has gone nowhere for 10 days straight - 1509, 1511, 1508, 1512, 1510, 1504, 1508, 1507, 1505... 1505.



This move in Small Caps looks very similar to the surge of the election which then did nothing for 9 months...





S&P saw a change of regime in the last two days with selling in the last 30 mins...





With VIX back at record lows, FX and Rates vol remains elevated - though fell this week...





And while Russell traders are hedging, so are Nasdaq traders.. as it soars to record highs, the inverse QQQ ETF (QID) has seen options interest soar...



(with more than five calls - bearish Nasdaq - outstanding for each put - bullish Nasdaq)



Despite the record highs in the major indices, Trump tax hope has collapsed back to post-election lows...





Bank stocks suffered on the week after 'sell the news' earnings...





And traders have rotated back to FANG stocks - sending then to record highs... (up for the 5th week in a row)...





Treasury yields tumbled on the week...





With a massive flattening in the curve...





The Dollar Index fell the most in 6 weeks this week led by Cable strength...





Bitcoin is perhaps the week's biggest headline-grabber - soaring over 32% - the biggest week since Dec 2013...





And Jamie Dimon has had a tough run of it...





Gold rose back above $1300 today, having its best week (and first positive week) in the last 5 weeks. Silver jumped over 3% on the week - the most in 6 weeks...





WTI/RBOB rallied on the week amid hope-strewn OPEC chatter...





Finally, you are here...

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: $7 Trillion To Manipulate Prices

Authoreed by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As the stock market continues to press new highs, the level of optimism climbs with it. I discussed yesterday Richard Thaler’s, a recent recipient of the Nobel Price in Economics, comments about not understanding the current “irrationality of investors relating to their investing behavior.”

What is interesting is that Thaler’s received his Nobel Prize for his pioneering work in establishing that people are predictably irrational — that they consistently behave in ways that defy economic theory. For example, people will refuse to pay more for an umbrella during a rainstorm; they will use the savings from lower gas prices to buy premium gasoline; they will offer to buy a coffee mug for $3 and refuse to sell it for $6.

The fact that a man who studies the “irrationality of individuals” is stumped by current investor behavior should be alarming at the least.

But as earnings season gets underway we once again return to quarterly Wall Street “beat the estimate game,” in which companies are rewarded by beating continually lowered estimates. Of course, the primary catalyst used to beat those estimates was not a rise in actual revenue, or even reported earnings, but rather ongoing accounting gimmickry and stock buybacks. As shown below, through the second quarter of this year, reported EPS, which includes “all the bad stuff,” actually declined in the latest quarter and has remained virtually unchanged since 2014. (But, even that is an illusion as shares have been aggressively bought back in order to sustain that same level of EPS.)



The difference between reported earnings with and without the benefit of share repurchases is substantial. The chart below shows the net difference between gross reported earnings with and without the buyback impact. Importantly, the net effect of buybacks is having less impact which, as was the case in 2007, was a precursor to the crash.



Ralph Nader just recently did an in-depth expose on the problems with share repurchases. To wit:



“The monster of economic waste—over $7 trillion of dictated stock buybacks since 2003 by the self-enriching CEOs of large corporations—started with a little-noticed change in 1982 by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under President Ronald Reagan. That was when SEC Chairman John Shad, a former Wall Street CEO, redefined unlawful ‘stock manipulation’ to exclude stock buybacks.”

Yep, stock buybacks used to be considered stock manipulation, yet today, it is widely accepted by investors as “just the right measure to boost earnings in the ongoing “beat the estimate” game.

As Ralph Nader points out – there is a problem.



“The stock buyback mania was unleashed. Its core was not to benefit shareholders (other than perhaps hedge fund speculators) by improving the earnings per share ratio. Its real motivation was to increase CEO pay no matter how badly such burning out of shareholder dollars hurt the company, its workers and the overall pace of economic growth.“



The bottom line is that while companies take trillions of dollars and buyback shares, it only benefits the executives of the company at the expense of both workers and, ultimately, shareholders as companies with excessive stock buybacks experience a declining market value.



The interview is worth watching, and read the article, and think about it.


Here’s your reading list to for the weekend.

Trump, Economy & Fed

• 5-Reasons Trump Will & Won’t Fire Yellen by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• Economic Growth Really Matters by Simon Constable via Forbes
• Market’s Got It All Wrong by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
• Richard Thaler: Nobel Winner by Binyamin Appelbaum via NYT
• Trump Finally Learns What SALT Is by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge
• Link Between Tax Cuts & Growth Is Tenuous by Kate Davidson via WSJ
• Trump Tax Plan An Atrocity by Larry Summers via The Washington Post
• Deja Voodoo by Joseph Stiglitz via Project Syndicate
• Why Tax Cuts Won’t Create Jobs by Marcus Ryu via NYT
• Cohn & Mnuchin Risk Their Reputations by David Leonhardt via NYT
• The GOP Has No Budget Plan by James Capretta via Real Clear Policy
• The Long Road Ahead To Tax Reform by Betsy McCaughey via NY Post
• 3-Scenarios For The Global Economy by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate
• Unemployment Drop Had Nothing To Do With Harvey by John Crudele via New York Post
• Detail On Who Pays What In Taxes via RIA

Markets

• Bear Market Closer With Each New High by Michael Sincere via MarketWatch
• JFK Sr. Used This Trick To Spot Market Bubbles by Jody Chudley via Daily Reckoning
• What If High Stock Value Revert? by Haghani & White via Bloomberg
• Putting Risk On A Budget by Patrick Nolan, CFA via BlackRock
• Is This The Melt-Up Before The Melt-Down by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch
• The Are No Bears Left…Not One by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist
• The Permian Boom Is Coming To An End by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com
• The Hysteria Of An Overbought Market by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• Newsletter Challenges Us To Re-Examine Investing by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch
• The Many Virtues Of Simplicity by David Merkel via Aleph Blog
• Maximum Optimism Should Have You Worried by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners
• Kass: Probability Of A Flash Crash Grows Exponentially by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• What NOT To Buy In Today’s Market by Vitaliy Katsenelson via RIA
• The Dangers Of “Get It While You Can” Mentality by Doug Kass via RIA
• Working Off The Froth by Liz Ann Sonders via Charles Schwab

Research / Interesting Reads

• Is Bridgewater A Fraud? by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge
• The Economist Who Realized How Crazy We Are by Michael Lewis via Bloomberg
• 4-Fundamental Skills Of All Investing by Morgan Housel via Collaborative Fund
• Risk: Preparing Clients For An Uncertain Journey by Shane Shepherd via Research Affiliates
• It Doesn’t Pay To Chase Returns by Jason Zweig via The Intelligent Investor
• Your Pension Is A Lie! by John Mauldin via Mauldin Economics
• Nobody Knows What Will Happenby Geisinger & Dittli via Finanz Und Wirtschaft
• NO! Valuations Are NOT Justified By Low Rates by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• Can Stocks Avoid Unlucky (Year) 7by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share
• Popularity Of “Passive” Preludes Pleasant Outcomeby Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

“Making it, and keeping it, are two different things.“ – Anonymous

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

October options expiration has a history of volatility

Since 1994, the Monday of options expiration week has a bullish bias for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Expiration day however, tends to be mixed with average losses across the board even though S&P 500 and NASDAQ have advanced more often than not. Entire expiration week and the week after also lean bullish. Of note is the small-cap index streak of 13 straight advances from 1994 through 2006 (not shown, the streak is actually 17 years starting in 1990) and it has been down in seven of the last ten years. October’s reputation for volatility can be seen with wild daily and weekly swings in the tables below. Weekly moves in excess of 5% occurred in 1998, 2002, 2008 and 2011.




How Does 2017 Post-Election Year Rally Compare Historically?

Here is the answer to a great question from one of our Twitter followers. Thanks Michael Green‏ @NJForce3. Here are the stats:

Above average gains in the first nine months of post-election years since 1949 (post-WWII) resulted in gains in all of the following fourth quarters with no losses and slightly higher average gains. But subsequent midterm years suffered losses in 4 of the 8 years.

Below average gains or losses in the first nine months of post-election years since 1949 resulted in losses in 4 of 9 following fourth quarters, but were followed by big gain in subsequent 5 midterm years, with big losses in 2 and flat markets in 2.

So, just because we are having a banner post-election year so far that is not an indication the market will be great next year.

The Least Exciting Record Ever
Oct 11, 2017

With minimal percentage moves on a seemingly daily basis, the DJIA is coming extremely close to having its least volatile year on record. Below, we show the index’s average daily percentage (positive or negative) move by year going back to 1900. So far in 2017, the DJIA has seen an average daily move of just 0.306%. The only other year on record where the average daily move was smaller was in 1964 and at 0.302% it was just barely lower at that.

Keep in mind that there is still another two and a half months left to go in 2017, so this average could certainly rise or fall from here. In order to make a run for the record books, the DJIA has to average a daily move of +/- 0.29% or less (~65 points) for the remainder of the year. Considering that the DJIA has averaged a daily move of 61 points since the start of September through now (a time of year where volatility typically peaks), 65 points or less wouldn’t be a stretch.



Time for Europe to Shine?
Posted by lplresearch

As we noted yesterday, small caps have improved and technically could break through a significant trendline that would suggest continued strength. That would be a good thing for the bull market in the U.S., but an even more important bullish development could be taking place overseas. The Euro STOXX 50 (think of this as the Dow for Europe) is in the process of breaking out above a bearish trendline that has been in place for more than 17 years, which could bode well for continued strength into 2018.



Here’s where things get interesting. The monthly chart above shows the Euro STOXX 50 has broken above its long-term trend, but the weekly chart below shows us that the breakout hasn’t happened yet. This is why it is important to look at varying timeframes.



Given various global markets are already breaking out, it is likely only a matter of time until the Euro STOXX 50 breaks out above this trendline. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Though when looking out into 2018 we continue to see better opportunities domestically and in emerging markets, Europe is finally pulling its own weight. This is yet another sign that we are amid a global bull market and it should continue into 2018, if not further.”

Major Bullish Development for Small Caps?
Posted by lplresearch

Few investments have been more frustrating than small caps in 2017. After a huge rally immediately following the U.S. election last November, the group weighed on the broad market this year-that is until September rolled around. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Small caps were down for the year as of August 21; now they are up more than 11% —just behind the 13% gain for the S&P 500 Index. Although this was a popular trade this year, it also will go down as one of the more frustrating, as it took so long to get moving.”

To put things in perspective, on August 21, the Russell 2000 Index closed down 0.02% for the year versus the S&P 500 that closed up 8.47%. Small caps then closed higher 24 out of the next 32 days and made 13 new highs during a 19-day stretch, including eight in a row. So what happened? Many of the so-called “Trump trades” started to work in September, as hopes over tax reform started to heat up, as we discussed in our Weekly Market Commentary: “Markets Buying Into Tax Reform.” Remember, small caps pay a higher tax rate than large caps, so any potential tax reform would benefit this group significantly.

As we discussed in our Midyear Outlook: A Shift in Market Control, although small caps had lagged by a wide margin in the first part of this year, we expected an eventual move higher from the group and that has now happened. This leads to the next question: Can the strength continue? We think so.

The Russell 2000 has been trading in an upward sloping channel since to the early 1990s, as you can see below. The top trendline slowed all rallies and capped small caps earlier this year. The good news is small caps have officially broken above this trendline, suggesting that continued strength and a continuation of the bull market is likely.

Last, small caps relative to large caps had a sharp breakout as well. As the next chart shows, small caps had been underperforming large caps all year, until the recent surge higher. This momentum is yet another technical indicator that small caps could continue to provide alpha as we move into 2018.

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 10.16.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 10.16.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 10.17.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 10.17.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 10.18.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 10.18.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 10.19.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 10.19.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 10.20.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 10.20.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 10.13.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon

 

TSMFers come join us on our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (10/16-10/20) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• TSMF Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (10/16-10/20) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• TSMF Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/16) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see all of you join us and participate on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Here are the most notable earnings calendar due out for this upcoming week ahead:
($NFLX $GE $IBM $GS $UNH $JNJ $LRCX $PYPL $CLF $CSX $MS $VZ $ABT $HOG $BX $PGR $ISRG $ASML $UAL $AA $CMA $EBAY)


Netflix, Inc. $199.49
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, October 16, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $2.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.32 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 166.67% with revenue increasing by 29.68%. Short interest has increased by 2.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.1% above its 200 day moving average of $156.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 8,092 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.9% move in recent quarters.


General Electric Co. $22.98
General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Friday, October 20, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $31.93 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.52 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 56.25% with revenue increasing by 9.10%. The stock has drifted lower by 9.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.5% below its 200 day moving average of $27.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 12, 2017 there was some notable buying of 58,855 contracts of the $22.00 put expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.



International Business Machines Corp. $147.10
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, October 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.28 per share on revenue of $18.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.36 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.89%. Short interest has increased by 1.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.1% below its 200 day moving average of $158.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 12, 2017 there was some notable buying of 9,930 contracts of the $140.00 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.3% move in recent quarters.


Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $238.53
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Tuesday, October 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.31 per share on revenue of $7.54 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.36 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.68% with revenue decreasing by 7.69%. Short interest has increased by 31.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% above its 200 day moving average of $229.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 3, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,361 contracts of the $240.00 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.


UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $192.52
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, October 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.57 per share on revenue of $50.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.43% with revenue increasing by 8.68%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.5% above its 200 day moving average of $177.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, September 25, 2017 there was some notable buying of 12,955 contracts of the $202.50 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.


Johnson & Johnson $136.43
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, October 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.80 per share on revenue of $19.26 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.14% with revenue increasing by 8.08%. The stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.1% above its 200 day moving average of $126.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 there was some notable buying of 21,117 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.


Lam Research Corp. $189.90
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, October 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.27 per share on revenue of $2.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.32 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $3.13 to $3.37 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 80.66% with revenue increasing by 50.08%. Short interest has increased by 12.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.5% above its 200 day moving average of $143.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 there was some notable buying of 514 contracts of the $180.00 call expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.


PayPal $68.66
PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, October 19, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.44 per share on revenue of $3.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.42 to $0.44 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.92% with revenue increasing by 18.86%. Short interest has decreased by 4.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 35.2% above its 200 day moving average of $50.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 2, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,917 contracts of the $63.50 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.


Cleveland-Cliffs Inc $7.57
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, October 20, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $654.98 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,700.00% with revenue increasing by 18.38%. Short interest has increased by 11.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $7.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 9, 2017 there was some notable buying of 7,826 contracts of the $7.50 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings.


CSX Corp. $52.83
CSX Corp. (CSX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 17, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.51 per share on revenue of $2.82 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.25% with revenue increasing by 4.06%. The stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.9% above its 200 day moving average of $49.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 29, 2017 there was some notable buying of 18,977 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

 

whelp, here we go! earnings season about to get going in earnest this week.

Here are the notable Earnings Releases due out After Market Close today and Before Market Open tomorrow morning-
($NFLX $GS $JNJ $UNH $CSX $MS $HOG $PGR $CMA $GWW $CE $KMG $IEX $TTS $SONC $PLD $SNV $HAFC $BCLI)

 

Key Earnings Reports to Watch (10/16-10/20)
Oct 16, 2017

Our Interactive Earnings Calendar is a useful tool for Bespoke subscribers during earnings season. From our calendar, we’ve pulled the table below which shows the 40 largest companies set to report earnings this week. For each stock, we show its historical earnings and revenue beat rate (% of time it beat consensus analyst estimates) along with its average one-day change in reaction to its earnings report.

Netflix (NFLX) kicks things off this week with earnings after the close today. The stock has historically beaten EPS estimates at an 86.9% clip, while its revenue beat rate is a little lower at 60.7%. NFLX is an extremely volatile stock on earnings, but throughout its history, it has averaged a gain of 0.55% on its earnings reaction days.

Tomorrow morning we’ll hear from big Dow 30 stocks like JNJ, UNH, and GS, and then IBM will report after the close. JNJ, UNH, and GS beat EPS estimates at a very high clip compared to the rest of the key stocks set to report this week. IBM beats EPS often, but it has a low revenue beat rate and it typically averages a decline on its earnings reaction day.

Wednesday is relatively quiet, but key companies reporting include American Express (AXP) and eBay (EBAY) after the close. Thursday picks up again with Verizon (VZ), Blackstone (BX), and Travelers (TRV) in the morning followed by PayPal (PYPL) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) after the close. Both PYPL and ISRG have seen big gains historically on their earnings reaction days.

On Friday we’ll close out the week with reports from General Electric (GE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Honeywell (HON), and Schlumberger (SLB). GE has only beaten EPS and revenues half the time over the last 15+ years, and it has averaged a decline of 0.39% on its earnings reaction day.

 

nasdaq 100 is on the verge of making history ... today marked the 61st ATH close on the NDX ... the all time record for most closes in a single year is 62 set in 1999 (just 1 away from tying the record! )