Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for October 9th - 13th

B.I.G. Tips – Analyst Sentiment Heading into Earnings Season
Oct 10, 2017

Earnings season kicks off this week as the first of the major companies start to report Q3 numbers. Most of the big names reporting are all Financials like Blackrock (BLK) on Wednesday morning, Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) on Thursday morning, and then Bank of America (BAC), PNC, and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Friday before the open, so we will have to wait a little while longer to get a better read on things in general.



Asset Class Total Returns Over the Last 10 Years
Oct 10, 2017

Below is a look at our asset class performance matrix showing total returns for key ETFs that we track on a regular basis. Since today marks the 10-year anniversary of the start of the Financial Crisis bear market for the S&P 500, we thought it would be helpful to see how various asset classes have performed over the last ten years. We also include change from the ultimate low of the bear market on 3/9/09 as well as 5-year returns.

We’ll let the table do the talking on this one!



The Best and Worst Stocks and Sectors Since the Start of the Financial Crisis
Oct 10, 2017

Ten years ago today marked the peak of the mid-2000s bull market for the S&P 500 and the start of the Financial Crisis bear market that ran from 10/10/07 to 3/9/09. Below is a look at S&P 500 sector performance over the last ten years along with how much each sector declined at its bear market low. We also include each sector’s current gain from its bear market low.

As shown, the Technology sector has gained the most over the last ten years from the prior bull market peak at +144%. Consumer Discretionary and Health Care are up the 2nd and 3rd most. Three sectors are still down from the 10/9/07 peak, however — Financials, Telecom, and Energy.

From their bear market lows, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are up the most with gains of more than 400%. Both Telecom and Energy, on the other hand, are up less than 85% from their bear market lows.



Below is a chart showing the rolling 10-year percentage change for the S&P 500 throughout its history. Note that the index is currently up 62.6% over the last ten years, which is well below the average rolling 10-year change of +103%. Moving forward from here, this reading should start to increase at a quick pace given that ten years ago today was the prior bull market peak. If the index were to stay at its current level, on March 9th, 2019, the rolling 10-year change would be +276% (the current % change from the bear market low on 3/9/09).



Below is a look at the current Russell 1,000 stocks that are up the most over the last ten years. There are 13 stocks that are up more than 1,000% over this time period, with Netflix (NFLX) on top at nearly +6,000%. Back on October 9th, 2007, NFLX was trading at $3.26/share. It’s currently at $196.87/share.

Other notables on the list of winners include Priceline (PCLN), Amazon.com (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), and salesforce.com (CRM). You may have expected to see Apple (AAPL) at the top of the list, but it ranks 32nd with a 10-year gain of 550%.

 

get those dow 23k hats ready soon

i've lost track how many new closing highs we've had this year ... it's amazing to me that we're still setting new highs even in october

after the earlier morning spike high today i honestly thought we might pull back a little ... lasted all but an hour long

 

How Does 2017 Post-Election Year Rally Compare Historically?

Here is the answer to a great question from one of our Twitter followers. Thanks Michael Green‏ @NJForce3. Here are the stats:

Above average gains in the first nine months of post-election years since 1949 (post-WWII) resulted in gains in all of the following fourth quarters with no losses and slightly higher average gains. But subsequent midterm years suffered losses in 4 of the 8 years.

Below average gains or losses in the first nine months of post-election years since 1949 resulted in losses in 4 of 9 following fourth quarters, but were followed by big gain in subsequent 5 midterm years, with big losses in 2 and flat markets in 2.

So, just because we are having a banner post-election year so far that is not an indication the market will be great next year.

 

slightly o/t here but is anyone experiencing any lag on finviz today? i'm running on google fiber so i know it can't possibly be coming from my end can it?

also is it just me or is anyone else getting hit with a red warning message when viewing my morning market movers thread? i'm running on the google chrome browser.

• 10/11 Wednesday Stock Market Movers & News <-- this one.

not really sure what is going on there but just want to make sure i'm not the only one!

 

The Least Exciting Record Ever
Oct 11, 2017

With minimal percentage moves on a seemingly daily basis, the DJIA is coming extremely close to having its least volatile year on record. Below, we show the index’s average daily percentage (positive or negative) move by year going back to 1900. So far in 2017, the DJIA has seen an average daily move of just 0.306%. The only other year on record where the average daily move was smaller was in 1964 and at 0.302% it was just barely lower at that.

Keep in mind that there is still another two and a half months left to go in 2017, so this average could certainly rise or fall from here. In order to make a run for the record books, the DJIA has to average a daily move of +/- 0.29% or less (~65 points) for the remainder of the year. Considering that the DJIA has averaged a daily move of 61 points since the start of September through now (a time of year where volatility typically peaks), 65 points or less wouldn’t be a stretch.

 

this is like watching the movie grounghog day lol

looks like the transports also getting in on the ATH party today as well ... now trading well above that 10K level