1. U.S. Futures


Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for September 25th - 29th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Sep 22, 2017.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Pretty amazing stat here courtesy of Ryan Detrick -- so far the SPX average trading range in September is 0.38% which is the smallest average trading range for the month of September for any year on record.

    In addition -- The SPX hasn't closed up or down 2% for 41 consecutive weeks. This would be the 3rd longest streak ever recorded. 47 in '93/'94 and 79 in '64/'65 were the longest.

    I was thinking of starting up a new poll to see how many of you guys think we could go the rest of this year w/o even a -3% pullback on the SPX (we're still w/o one for the past 10 months, which is the longest streak since 1995). The SPX has never gone an entire year w/o a -3% pullback.
     
  2. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    I am still feeling bullish, but I do feel like we will have a mini pullback (something like 3 to 5%) before end of the year :p
     
  3. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Those media stocks need the NFL TV ratings to go back up :p There are some other problems like the games are too long and there are too many bad teams. The NFL is still extremely popular but it is pretty safe to say that it has peaked
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Good morning.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Major indices mostly in chop today ... but worth noting that the Transports with new ATHs today, and small caps still powering higher. Nothing really bearish about that. :p
     
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  6. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Tech stocks bouncing back a little today after the selloff yesterday. Energy stocks flat today but if crude continues to hold above of $50, I could see them outperforming the market rest of the year
     
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  7. anotherdevilsadvocate

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    I've got a bad feeling about Wednesday...like if things don't go well, they could get ugly.
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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  9. Steven

    Steven Active Member

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    Zzzzzzz The most boring day in months. I thought my platform was freezing up lol
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Just wanted to quickly touch on this again. Ryan Detrick posted up some charts to display the above stats.

    As I had stated the other day (in the quote above), the SPX is w/o a 2% weekly change (up or down) for 41 straight weeks...that is the 3rd longest streak in history, and the longest since 1993 and 1994 as shown in the chart below-

    [​IMG]

    As of today the SPX average daily trading range is just 0.39% ... absent any burst of volatility in these final 3 trading days of the month, this would be the smallest daily range during the month of September for any year on record. Pretty amazing if ya ask me.

    [​IMG]

    But here's the kicker. Next month (October) is the most volatile month of the year. Will we finally see that -3% or greater pullback ... or a 2% weekly change? o_O

    [​IMG]
     
  11. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Yields spiking higher, the market might be pricing in the December rate hike now after the hawkish speech by Yellen yesterday :eek:
     
  12. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Small cap having another great day here :eek:
     
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    The SPX hitting a new ATH here :eek:
     
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Wow! Russell 2K went absolutely ballistic today :eek:
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Nearly had a trifecta there. Was waiting to see if the NASDAQ was going to join in and print a new ATH ... looks like it just missed it by a few handles. What a day. :eek:
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Could be an 8 quarter winning streak for the SPX if things don't fall apart in these final 2 trading days of the week. It's also worth mentioning that the four times in history that the SPX had an 8 quarter win streak like it has now, it was also up the next quarter. Hard to bet against the traditional EOY Santa Rally. :p
     
  17. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Haha if we don't see those 3 to 5% pullback by early December then I think we probably won't get one this year, hard to imagine the market collapsing end of the year unless we have some really bad news coming out of nowhere :p
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    IT'S HERE: All the details of Trump's massive tax plan

    http://www.businessinsider.com/trum...te-individual-brackets-deductions-cuts-2017-9

    Business tax changes:
    • A 20% corporate tax rate. This is the first time Trump has publicly backed down from one of his earliest campaign promises: a 15% corporate tax rate. The budget math required for a 15% rate was too difficult, so the somewhat higher rate is the opening bid. The current statutory federal rate is 35%.
    • A 25% rate for pass-through businesses. Instead of getting taxed at an individual rate for business profits, people who own their own business would pay at the pass-through rate. The plan also says it will consider rules to prevent "personal income" from being taxed at this rate. Mnuchin previously suggested there may be limitations on what types of businesses get this rate — it could apply only to goods producers and not service-oriented companies to prevent people from creating limited-liability corporations to store their assets and receive a lower rate.
    • Elimination of some business deductions, industry-specific incentives, and more. There are few details, but the plan includes language regarding the "streamlining" of business tax breaks.
    • A one-time repatriation tax. All overseas assets from US-owned companies would be considered repatriated and taxed at a one-time lower rate — this is designed to bring corporate profits back from overseas. Illiquid assets like real estate would be taxed at a lower rate than cash or cash equivalents, and the payments would be spread out over time. While there is no precise number in the plan, officials have indicated the rate could end up somewhere around 10%.
    Personal tax changes:
    • A bottom individual tax rate of 12%. The plan specifies three tax brackets, with the lowest rate being 12%. That would represent a slight bump in the bottom bracket, which is now 10%. People currently in the 15% marginal tax bracket would most likely be included here.
    • A middle tax bracket of 25%. The incomes in this bracket aren't specified.
    • The top individual tax rate of 35%. The current top rate is 39.6%.
    • The possibility of a fourth, higher bracket. Because of Trump's insistence that taxes for the wealthiest Americans not decrease, the plan proposes the possibility of a fourth tax bracket at a rate higher than 35% if the tax-writing committees wish. "An additional top rate may apply to the highest-income taxpayers to ensure that the reformed tax code is at least as progressive as the existing tax code and does not shift the tax burden from high-income to lower- and middle-income taxpayers," the plan reads.
    • A larger standard deduction. To avoid raising taxes on those currently in the 10% tax bracket, the standard deduction for all taxes would increase to $12,000 for individuals (up from $6,350) and $24,000 for married couples (up from $12,700). These are slightly less than the doubled deductions expected — and as Business Insider's Josh Barro noted, the idea that this would save people money may be misleading.
    • Eliminates most itemized deductions. The only deduction preserved explicitly in the plan is for charitable gifts and home-mortgage interest.
    • Increases the size of the child tax credit. A pet project of Ivanka Trump, the proposal is to make the first $1,000 of the child tax credit refundable and increase the income level at which the credit would phase out.
    • Vague promises on retirement savings and other deductions. Sections of the plan refer to retirement savings and other "provisions," but details are sparse.
    • Elimination of the state and local tax deduction. The so-called SALT deduction allows people to deduct what they pay in state and local taxes from their federal tax bill. Most of the people who take this deduction are wealthier Americans in Democratic states — about one-third of the beneficiaries are in New York, New Jersey, and California.
    • Elimination of the estate tax. Called the "death tax" in the plan, this applies only to inherited assets totaling $5.49 million or more in 2017. Very few households pay the estate tax, but it has long been a target for Republicans.
     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 Well-Known Member

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    Seems like transport and small cap hit another record today :eek: Cy has mentioned the strength of these 2 lately :D
     
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