Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for September 18th - 22nd

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of September 18th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:



Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

4:00 p.m. TIC data

• Tuesday

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

8:30 a.m. Import prices

8:30 a.m. Current account

• Wednesday

10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

2:00 p.m. FOMC statement

2:30 p.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen press briefing

• Thursday

8:30 a.m. Initial claims

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing

9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

• Friday

9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

 

Quad Witch 'Pins' S&P At Exactly 2500 Despite Dismal Data, Nukes, & Terrorism
So to be clear, this week we had:

• Hurricane Irma crushes Florida
• North Korea test fires ICBMs across Japan (again)
• Economic data misses across the globe (China and US most notably)
• Terrorism in UK and France

And the result - drum roll please - new record highs for The Dow, The S&P, and The Nasdaq... with The Dow's best week of the year!!






And in case you wondered what sent stocks soaring this week... The Fed (which is supposedly on the verge next week of starting to reduce the balance sheet) saw a $17.7bn spike in its balance sheet - the biggest weekly jump since Dec 2016



But, now that the ubiquitous pre-Quad-Witch ramp in stocks is over (and with The Fed about to start 'normalizing' the balance sheet)... what happens next?



We think this sums the week up nicely...





* * *

So having got that off our chests... here's what happened this week (in the markets)...6-day win streak for The Dow - best week since Dec 2016

S&P was perfectly pinned to close at 2500 for quad witch...







VIX was clubbed all the way down to 10.00...





But we note that the VIX term structure is notably steepening...





Small Caps were best on the week thanks to a short-squeeze at the open every day...





FANG Stocks opened notably lower but for the 5th day in a row were panic-bid immediately...





Financials outperformed on the week (with Utes down)...





But, notably Financials were firmly rejected at their 50DMA...





Treasury yields rose once again today but once again the long-end outperformed...





5s30s flattened dramatically (to its lowest since early July) despite the bearish tilt...this was the biggest flattening since December!





All of which makes perfect sense in light of financials huge week...





The Dollar Index slipped lower for the second day in a row but ended the week higher (best week in 5 months!)...





Of course, the big headlines today (and this week) were made by Cryptocurrencies.



Bitcoin crashed as much as 20% at one point today after news of all China bitcoin exchanges being closed by BTFDers came rushing in to save the day...





Nevertheless this was the worst week for Bitcoin since jan 2015 (but for some context - even after this most recent crash, BTC is still up 275% YTD)





Copper was worst among the major commodities (copper's worst 2-week drop soince December) and Crude was best (biggest week for WTI since July)





But Crude failed to hold $50 again... (RBOB biggest weekly loss since June)





Gold and Silver fell on the week... (worst weekly drop in 2 months)



* * *

And one more thing... US 'Hard' Economic Data (i.e. excluding 'soft survey'-based data) collapsed to its weakest since March 2009 this week...





But it's probably nothing...





Bonus Chart: WTF-Panic-Buying from Korea's Plunge Protection Team after North Korea's missile launch!!

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: They're Baaaccckkk!

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

I remember the first time I saw the movie “Poltergeist.” It scared the $*#@ out of me, and I slept with the lights on for a month.

Recently, I got a chance to catch a rerun. It certainly wasn’t the same experience. It was kind of like eating a “twinkie” as an adult, the sponge cake and creamy filling aren’t nearly as delicious as I remembered them. “Poltergeist” is now more of a “campy” flick with bad special effects.


But the run up in the markets over the last few days, on really no news at all, reminded me of the scene where “Carol Anne” is pointing to the static filled television screen proclaiming “they’re back.”

After a brief decline, market sentiment got bearish enough to provide the catalyst for a short-term rally. With Trump now caving in to “Chuck and Nancy,” the North Korean threat deflated, and hopes for tax cuts on the horizon, “the bulls are back.”

Since the election, there has been a concerted effort to push stocks higher on the hopes of tax reform, ACA repeal, and infrastructure building which would lead to strongly improving earnings for U.S. companies. Now, eleven months later, stocks have been breaching the psychologically important levels of 2200 in December, 2300 in February and finally 2400 in May. 2500 is the next target.



The problem is that NONE of the legislative agenda has been passed. Zero, Nada, Zip.

But such small details have not, as noted yesterday, deterred investors who have once again fully abandoned reason and have gone “all in.”



“With cash levels at the lowest level since 1997, and equity allocations near the highest levels since 1999 and 2007, it also suggests investors are now functionally ‘all in.'”





“Here is the point, despite ongoing commentary about mountains of “cash on the sidelines,” this is far from the case. This leaves the current advance in the markets almost solely in the realm of Central Bank activity.”

Yes, the bulls are indeed back for now.

The ending of this version of “Poltergeist Market” will surely be just as scary as the last.

In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend.

Politics/Fed/Economy

• Trump Pushes For Tax Cuts by Paul Sullivan via NYT
• Trump’s Is Irrelevant To Corporate America by William Cohan via The New Yorker
• The Boom Arrives As War On Business Ends by Stephen Moore via The Washington Times
• Reform The Debt Ceiling by Maya McGuinness via Washington Post
• Get Rid Of The Debt Ceiling by IBD
• Trump’s 3% Growth For The 1% by Ken Rogoff via Project Syndicate
• Difference Between Tax Reform & Tax Cuts by Jimmy Sengenberger via The Federalist
• Stock Market Needs Tax Reform Now by Nicholas Colas via Bloomberg
• Immigration And Impacts To The Economy by Benjamin Harris via Fortune
• Trump Really Hasn’t Done Anything To Create Factory Jobs by Steven Greenhouse via NYT
• $20 Trillion In Debt, And Only Getting Started by Robert Schroeder via MarketWatch
• No, The U.S. Isn’t The Highest Taxed Nation by Kevin Williamson via National Review

Markets

• The Index Of Index Creation Is Off The Charts by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• How Are Investors Dealing With Today’s Uncertainties by Mohamed El-Erian via Bloomberg
• Contrarian Investment Strategy For The Long-Run by John Reese via Forbes
• No, Oil Unlikely To Return To $80 by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World
• Your Robo-Advisor Is More Active Than You Think by John Coumarianos via WSJ
• One Bank Calculates Odds Of Correction In 3 Months by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• Death Cross Danger by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• When Should I Sell Stocks? by Simon Constable via US News
• 3-Types Of Market Risks by Brad McMillan via Commonwealth Financial Network
• Prepare For The Growth/Value “Snapback” by Jody Chudley via Daily Reckoning
• You Should Take The Fed At Their Word by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
• I’m Not Afraid Of A Bear Market, Just Don’t Want To Be There For It by Doug Kass via RCM
• BitCoin At A Crossroads After Loss Of $27 Billion by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch

Research / Interesting Reads

• Equifax Breach Worse Than You Know by Michael Hiltzik via LA Times
• The $1.4 Million Mistake by Michael Douglas via Motley Fool
• How Analytics Transformed The Dallas Cowboysby Dan Solomon via Texas Monthly
• The Good, Bad & Ugly Of Last Week’s News by Angry Bear via Angry Bear Blog
• Does Government Spending Create Growth? by Frank Shostak via Mises Institute
• The Death Of Active Management Is Greatly Exaggerated by Jeff Troutner via Index Funds
• The Mystery Of Missing Inflation by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate
• Stop Trying To Bring Back Jobs Of The Past by Allan Golombek via RCM
• Why Central Banks Are Shifting Goal Posts by Daniel Gross via Project Syndicate
• Cryptocurrencies: The Beginning Of The End by Brett Arends via MarketWatch
• Market Complexity Could Trigger Next Crash by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• A Correction Only Requires Recognition Of Today’s Reality by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• Is BitCoin’s Run Over? by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
• Market’s Breadth Stinks by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.” – Alan Greenspan

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

S&P 500 down 22 of last 27 week after September options expiration, average loss 1.00%

Next week is the week after September options expiration week and it has a dreadful history of declines particularly since 1990. This week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 27 years (shaded in grey). Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2002, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.

Since 1990, average weekly losses are even worse; DJIA –1.07%, S&P 500 –1.00%, NASDAQ –0.98% and a stout –1.50% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer losers and reposition portfolios for the upcoming fourth quarter.

Octoberphobia could still strike markets

Let’s step out on another limb today and just go ahead and declare the Los Angeles Dodgers this year’s World Series Champs. Never mind completing the balance of regular season games or playoffs, they have the best record in all of MLB today. Congratulations LA Dodgers, 2017 World Champs!!! This is exactly what is happening today with the market. New all-time highs in September (and August) apparently automatically mean that “Selling in May” failed this year and the market can only go one direction from here. Let’s not forget its September 14, 2017 and the “Worst Four/Six Months” don’t actually end until November 1. That’s over six weeks from now and those six weeks are riddled with some nasty sell offs throughout recent history.

In the above chart, we can see DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 rallying off their respective mid-August lows in the top pane and solid support by Advance/Decline lines in the lower panes. But, note how quickly things have changed in the past. A late-July peak in A/D lines and subsequent pullback was accompanied by a similar move in the major indexes. And from their respective May 2017 closes through yesterday’s close DJIA is up 5.5%, S&P 500 3.6%, NASDAQ 4.2% and Russell 2000 is up 4.1%. It would only take a few 1 percent daily losses to wipe out those gains. The next six plus weeks have a history of that and often much more.

First off, next week is the week after September options expiration week and it has a dreadful history of declines particularly since 1990. S&P 500 has been down 22 times in the last 27 years with an average weekly loss of 1%. Then even before the trading week concludes, the eight-day span between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur commences. DJIA has averaged a 0.6% loss during the period going back to 1971.

And finally, October has a frightful history of market crashes such as in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in point and percentage terms. Absent a bear market in progress, October’s historical tendency for bear market bottoms is a moot point. October’s record in years ending in seven is of concern. October 2007 was a bull market high, in October 1997 DJIA plunged 12.4% from October 7 to October 27 and during the crash of October 1987 DJIA tanked 23% in two days.

Keeping all of this mind and recognizing that more than six weeks remain before the “Best Six/Eight Months” of the year actually begin on November 1, it is far too early to sound the “all clear.” We will continue to maintain a defensive posture in the Almanac Investor Portfolios. We will also look forward to enjoying the remainder of the baseball season and playoffs.

If not September, perhaps October then

Last month we presented updated 1-Year Seasonal Pattern charts for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ with historical patterns beginning at the start of the second half of 2017. At that time, volatility was on the rise and the market was slipping modestly lower and since then the market recovered and DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all closed at new all-time highs again today. At today’s close DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all performing modestly better than their respective best case scenario seasonal patterns for this point in the second half of the year. The prospects for a tepid second half of September still remain and even if September does buck historical patterns this year with solid gains, October could still present an issue as two of four (the most optimistic) seasonal patterns tracked in the charts above and below, turn negative.


Despite New Highs Typical September Action Ripe for Fall

Folks have been questioning recently the validity and efficacy of seasonal market patterns as the equity markets have shown resiliency over the worst six months and the major indices log new highs, except for the Russell 2000. I have been hearing a good bit of frustration with our worst six months seasonality and out rather cautious stance. But it is at times like this when traders and investors throw in the towel on these evidence-based patterns that they often come home to roost.

We have cited recently many of the fundamental, technical, psychological and geopolitical risks and reasons the market is ripe for a correction in addition to the seasonals. Our Best Six and Eight Month Switching Strategies have served us and our clients and subscribers well over the long and short terms.

So while the market has held up pretty well since “Sell in May” it has not done much since our June 9 NASDAQ MACD Sell Signal when we went more fully risk off. At that time we held our big winners, sold underperformers, tightened up stops, limited new longs and implemented some defensive positions. After logging double-digit gains from our October 24 MACD Buy Signal, since June 9 DJIA is up 4.0%, S&P 500 2.7%, NASDAQ 4.0% and the Russell 2000 0.1%.

In addition, September may look extremely robust on first blush, but look at the update chart below of a typical September with 2017 so far overlaid. It still looks like we are on track for a late month selloff, or at least set up for some month-end softness.

Longest Rally Since…
Sep 11, 2017

Back in late July we published a Chart of the Day looking at the current rally and how it ranks in terms of length without a significant pullback of any kind. With the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high today, it has now been 3,108 calendar days since the last 20% decline (the standard bull/bear market distinction). As shown in the table below of the longest bull markets on record, the current bull is the second longest behind the 4,494 days that passed between December 1987 and March 2000 without a 20%+ pullback.

Today’s close was also a big deal in terms of gains for the current bull market. As shown, the S&P’s gain of 267.61% makes this the second strongest bull market on record as well.



It has also been a long time since the S&P 500 had a 10% correction. As shown, the current streak of 578 days since the last 10%+ correction is the 11th longest on record going back to 1928.



Not only have we not had a 10% correction in more than 18 months, but we also haven’t even had a 5%+ correction since last June. The 441-day streak without a 5%+ correction is the sixth longest on record for the S&P 500.



And finally, it has now been 311 days since the S&P 500 last experienced just a 3% pullback. As shown below, this is the 2nd longest streak of all-time without a 3%+ pullback.

To break this record, we’ll need to go another 59 days without declining 3% from today’s close.



Why The S&P 500 Monthly Win Streak Could Have Bulls Smiling
Posted by lplresearch

The run stocks have been on since the February ’16 lows is truly an impressive feat. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “The S&P 500 is up 10 consecutive months on a total return basis and has been higher 17 of the past 18 months. Other than those test rockets Elon Musk is firing into outer space, not much has been consistently higher than equities over this timeframe.”

So on a total return basis the S&P 500 is up 10 consecutive months, but take note this does include dividends. Going by only price shows it has been higher five consecutive months for the first time since a five-month win streak coming off the February ’16 lows. Here’s the catch, going back in history a five-month win streak is one of the more bullish signals for longer-term returns. According to Ryan Detrick, “This is the 25th time the S&P 500 was up five straight months since 1950. The good news for bulls is a year later it was higher 23 out of the previous 24 times and higher 13.2% on average.”

Be aware though, that this current streak was also the weakest return over a five-month win streak at +4.6%. None the less, although near-term we could see an increase in volatility, we believe this is one the bulls can hang their hat on that the bull market is far from over.



What Happens If You Miss the 10 Worst Days of the Year?
Posted by lplresearch

Did you know that if you could have avoided the 10 worst days of each year for the S&P 500 Index since 1990, you would have been higher every single year with average annual gains of close to 40%? Of course, saying you’ll do that—and actually being able to accomplish it—are two totally different things.

What if you missed the 10 best days of the year? Well, in that case, you would have been down on average 13.6% a year since 1990. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Let’s get one thing straight, no one can predict the 10 best or 10 worst days of the year. Although it would be fun to somehow do this, the exercise hammers home how for the average investor, being invested and not making a lot of short-term bets is likely the best way to accumulate long-term wealth.”

Here are some key takeaways:

• Even if you missed the 10 best days of each year, you would have still been in the green five times (1991, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 2013)
• If you missed the 10 worst days and the 10 best days in 1993 and 2005, you had the smallest difference at 28.2%
• If you missed the 10 worst days in 2009, you added 88.8% for the year—which is the largest gain
• If you missed the 10 worst days and the 10 best days in 2009, you had the widest difference at 107.5%
• If you missed the 10 worst days in 2011, your return went from 0% to 48.1%—which is the largest swing

Can the Japanese Yen Forecast the 10-Year Treasury?
Posted by lplresearch

It is no secret that the Japanese yen has been a safe-haven asset for some time now. A recent development, however, is the increase in its correlation with U.S. 10-year Treasury prices. At 0.70%, it’s currently much higher than its 15-year average of 0.47%, according to Bloomberg data.

What’s the connection between the yen and U.S. Treasuries? Interest rates are likely a key driver of recent trends, but perhaps for different reasons. Strength in the yen is often a result of what’s known as the “carry trade.” Large global investors often borrow money in more stable, developed market currencies like the yen, which has experienced negative interest rates more recently, in order to purchase higher yielding assets in emerging markets, for example. When these investors unwind their riskier positions, they must convert the foreign currency back into yen, causing it to strengthen. For Treasuries, the relatively attractive yields they offer compared to sovereign debt from other developed countries, in addition to their status as some of the safest (if not the safest) investments available, in and of itself drives demand, but it also ensures that prices are driven higher (and yields lower) when investors look for safe-haven assets to reduce risk in their portfolios.

Year to date, the price change of the yen has been a fairly accurate indicator of changes in 10-year Treasury prices, but this is just one chart and correlations do change over time. That said, if the more recent pattern holds and the yen continues to rise, the 10-year yield may continue to decline, and the price may continue to rise.



Could a Move Higher in the S&P 500 Biotechnology Index Be Your Cup of Tea?
Posted by lplresearch

The S&P 500 Biotechnology Index may be ready to break out of a multi-year base in the form of a bullish cup-and-handle chart pattern. If this type of chart pattern executes, then based on historical data, the index price is likely to move higher over the long term.

Technical analysts describe a bullish cup and handle as a continuation-type pattern in which the price consolidates into what resembles a tea cup, followed by a breakout in the form of the cup’s handle. Once the pattern is complete, the price is likely to continue to move upward. To determine how much higher the price is likely to move following a breakout, you simply measure the price change from the bottom of the cup to the beginning of the handle, and add that value to the top of the handle. The final number is your bullish price objective.

The current pattern, which began in August 2015, took approximately two years to form its base, or cup. More recently, over the months of July and August 2017, the handle became more visible (Figure 1). Earlier this month, the index price has remained above the 4,000 level for more than three trading days, which increases the likelihood that the pattern executes to the upside, and the price continues higher over the next 3–12 months.



Looking at historical data going back to 1994, there were 19 instances when the S&P 500 Biotechnology Index executed a bullish cup-and-handle chart pattern, and both average and median returns over the subsequent 3- to 12-month periods were impressive (Figure 2).



The recent cup-and-handle pattern breakout on the index is providing an initial signal that the longer-term trend may be changing, which may result in the S&P 500 Biotechnology Index’s price to continue moving higher. Will this be the cup of tea investors have been long awaiting as a signal for a potential biotechnology-related trade? Well, considering that this multi-year base formation has just recently been triggered, it may be prudent to wait for further confirmation of a trend reversal prior to investing to help mitigate the possibility that this is a false signal. Stay tuned to the LPL Research blog for future analysis of S&P 500 industry groups.

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 9.18.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 9.18.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 9.19.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 9.19.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.20.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.20.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 9.21.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 9.21.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.22.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.22.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 9.15.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-

 

Major Indices as of this week ending-

 

TSMFers come join us on our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (9/18-9/22) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (9/18-9/22) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/18) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join and participate with us on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Here are the most notable earnings releases calendar due out for this upcoming week ahead:
($ADBE $AZO $FDX $APOG $STB $BBBY $STNG $GIS $KMX $NEOG $LITB $FINL $MANU $YGE $SCS $AIR $ALOG $CPRT $PSDO)


Adobe Systems, Inc. $154.49
Adobe Systems, Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 19, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $1.81 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.00 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.49% with revenue increasing by 23.64%. Short interest has decreased by 0.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.0% above its 200 day moving average of $129.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.


AutoZone, Inc. $569.89
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 19, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $15.11 per share on revenue of $3.49 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 34% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.66% with revenue increasing by 2.68%. The stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% below its 200 day moving average of $658.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.


FedEx Corp. $214.83
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 19, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.17 per share on revenue of $15.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.20 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.31% with revenue increasing by 4.75%. Short interest has decreased by 5.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.1% above its 200 day moving average of $198.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,234 contracts of the $210.00 put expiring on Friday, September 22, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.


Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $44.80
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, September 19, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.92 per share on revenue of $350.55 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.48% with revenue increasing by 25.89%. Short interest has decreased by 24.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.5% below its 200 day moving average of $53.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Student Transportation Inc. $5.86
Student Transportation Inc. (STB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, September 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of $170.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.57% with revenue increasing by 2.83%. Short interest has decreased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.2% below its 200 day moving average of $5.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 2.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. $28.67
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (BBBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 19, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.41% with revenue increasing by 0.73%. Short interest has increased by 29.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.5% below its 200 day moving average of $36.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 8, 2017 there was some notable buying of 5,169 contracts of the $30.00 call and 4,283 contracts of the $27.50 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.


Scorpio Tankers Inc. $3.50
Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:55 AM ET on Monday, September 18, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $135.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 225.00% with revenue decreasing by 1.00%. Short interest has decreased by 24.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% below its 200 day moving average of $4.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.


General Mills, Inc. $55.80
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Wednesday, September 20, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $3.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.28% with revenue decreasing by 3.02%. Short interest has increased by 46.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.3% below its 200 day moving average of $58.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 30, 2017 there was some notable buying of 506 contracts of the $60.00 call and 503 contracts of the $45.00 put expiring on Friday, April 20, 2018. The stock has averaged a 1.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Carmax Inc $68.08
Carmax Inc (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Friday, September 22, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.94 per share on revenue of $4.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.82% with revenue increasing by 7.32%. Short interest has decreased by 15.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% above its 200 day moving average of $63.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, September 7, 2017 there was some notable buying of 501 contracts of the $75.00 call expiring on Friday, April 20, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.


Neogen Corp. $73.07
Neogen Corp. (NEOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Tuesday, September 19, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $95.09 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.38% with revenue increasing by 13.68%. Short interest has increased by 23.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.2% above its 200 day moving average of $65.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.

 

ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.17.17 - Is it all one Poor High?
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

futures are off to a good start already tonight

 

Good morning!