Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for September 11th - 15th

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of September 11th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:



Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

T.B.A.

 

Kim, Don, Gary, & Irma Spark Dollar Exodus As Gold Gains Most Since Brexit
Catastrophic storms, worst week for macro data since July, debt ceiling to be cancelled, Gary Cohn off the list for Fed Chair (amid resignation chatter) and Korean hydrogen bombs... gold spikes, dollar dumps, bond yields plunge, and... stocks limp less than 1% lower...



Bonds (red) & Bullion (orange) surged on the week, stocks (blue) and the dollar (USDJPY green) tumbled...





Trannies were the only major index in the green on the week...Nasdaq was the week's biggest loser...







Financials were the week's biggest loser (rates lower and flatter and Gary Cohn) with the worst week in almost 6 months, along with Tech...





Financials in fact broke below their 50-, 100- and 200-DMA...





FANG Stocks tumbled today, erasing any gains on the week...





Insurers bounced today as Irma was downgraded to a mere Cat-4 and a slight trajectory shift...Today was the best day for S&P Insurers Index since Feb 2016





VIX rose on the week - the first time in 4 weeks - but hovered, like the S&P, in a very narrow range after the initial Korea reaction on Tuesday...





Treasury yields tumbled on the week (with a bounce today)...





The bounce started at 10Y broke to a 2.01% handle...





The Dollar Index suffered its worst weekly drop since July 2016...





Yen gained the most against the greenback on the week...





Yuan was crushed today...after tagging 6.45 it appeared like someone stepped in...





After spiking to 18 month highs overnight... and the best week in over a decade





While WTI tumbled (biggest daily drop in 2 months) on China refinery cutbacks (WTI broke below its 50- and 100-DMA), it managed to hold on to gains for the week (the first weekly gain in the last six weeks) as RBOB slipped lower...





Gas prices remain high - but judging by the reversion in wholesale prices, may be peaking...





Bitcoin took another nosedive today after headlines about China closing local exchanges...





OJ Futures jumped mopst since October on the week...





It appears Jeff Guindlach's favorite indicator is failing and dropping back in line with bonds...





And Finally, Gold extended gains on the week - to complete the best 2-week rally since Brexit (June 2016)

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: The "Real" Vampire Squid

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

First, it was Hurricane “Harvey” and an expected $180 billion in damages to the Texas coastline. Now, “Irma” is speeding her way to the Florida coastline dragging “Jose” in her wake. Those two hurricanes, depending on where they land will send damages higher by another $100 billion or more in the weeks ahead.

The immediate funding needed for relief to Americans is what you would truly deem to be “emergency measures.”


But that is not what I am talking about today.

Nope, I am talking about Central Banks.



On Thursday, Mario Draghi, of the ECB, announced their latest monetary policy stance:



“At today’s meeting, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.



Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €60 billion, are intended to run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases are made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration.”

Ladies and Gentlemen, these are “emergency measures.” According to the Bank for International Settlements:



“Policy tools that involve the active use of central bank balance sheets – both the assets and the liabilities – can help monetary authorities to navigate the policy challenges during times of financial stress and when interest rates are close to zero.“

But wait, this is what Draghi said next:



“The economic expansion, which accelerated more than expected in the first half of 2017, continues to be solid and broad-based across countries and sectors.”

So, what is it?

If you actually have “solid and broad-based” economic growth across countries and sectors, why are you still flooding the system with “emergency measures,” and keeping interest rates near zero?

That’s a rhetorical question.

The reality is that Central Banks are keenly aware of the underlying economic weakness that currently exists as evidenced by the inability to generate inflationary pressures. They also understand that if the financial markets falter, the immediate feedback loop into the global economic environment will be swift and immediate.

This is why there continue to be direct purchases of equities by the ECB and the BOJ. Which is also the reason why, despite nuclear threats, hurricanes, geopolitical tensions and economic disconnects, the markets remain within a one-day striking distance of all-time highs. (Charts courtesy of Yardeni Research)



Of course, the question becomes just exactly what will Central Banks do when economies on a global scale slip back into the next cyclical recession? There is a “limit” to the amount of “assets” that can be held by the Central banks unless the markets are to become entirely centralized by the tentacles of the real “vampire squid.”

As the BIS concludes:



“Let me remind you too about the considerable fiscal risks that many countries face – risks that could at some point confront central banks with extremely difficult choices.”

In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend.

Politics/Fed/Economy

• The Donald’s Seinfeld Tax Plan by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
• It’s Time To Get Rid Of The Debt Ceiling by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• Trump’s Working Class Sellout by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
• Congress May Tax Retirement Savings by Allan Golombek via RCM
• Tax Reform Should Not Add To The Debt by Committee For A Responsible Budget
• Trump Pursues Plan To End Debt Ceiling by Damian Paletta via Washington Post
• 155-Member GOP Group Opposes Debt Ceiling Deal by Jonathan Swan via Axios
• The Underreported Story Of Middle-Class Revival by Robert Samuelson via RCM
• Hurricane Harvey Rebuild Will Divert Jobs by Allan Golombek via RCM
• 15-Events That Could Trigger Next Recession by John Mauldin via Forbes
• Trump Really Hasn’t Done Anything To Create Factory Jobs by Steven Greenhouse via NYT
• A Tax-Cut The U.S. Can’t Live Without by Richard Rahn via Washington Times
• Populism Is Fading by A. Gary Shilling via Bloomberg

Video
Ray Dalio’s recent TED Talk – “How To Build A Company Where The Best Ideas Win”





Markets

• Yield Spreads Fall To 9-Year Lows by James Picerno via Capital Spectator
• Shiller: Bitcoin Is The Best Example Of A Bubble by Akin Oyedele via BI
• Blankfein: Markets Have Been Going Up For Too Long by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• Your Robo-Advisor Is More Active Than You Think by John Coumarianos via WSJ
• So, This Is What A Bubble Feels Like by Kadhim Shubber via FT
• 5 Biotechs On Sale That Offer Less Risk by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• What Is GARP? by Simon Constable via US News
• Is It Time To Say “No” To The U.S. Market? by Proinsias O’Mahony via The Irish Times
• Bond Market Rally Is No “Knee-Jerk” Reaction by Scott Dorf via Bloomberg
• Is Dr. Copper Signaling Inflation Or Higher Stock Prices by Sol Palha via HuffPo
• I’m Not Afraid Of A Bear Market, Just Don’t Want To Be There For It by Doug Kass via RCM
• Treasury Yield To 10-Month Lows by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch

Research / Interesting Reads

• Company Buy Backs & CEO Option Cashouts by Owen Davis via Dealbreaker
• Trouble Ahead! Hedge Funds vs. Robo’s by Jonas Elmerraji via Daily Reckoning
• Global Elites Plan For Cryptocurrenciesby James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
• Is The High Cost Of Housing Crushing Wages? by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds
• Does Government Spending Create Growth? by Frank Shostak via Mises Institute
• 10-Things To Teach Your Kids Before They Leave by Trae Bodge via MarketWatch
• Normalization Delusion by Adair Turner via Project Syndicate
• The Incredible Shrinking Corporate Tax Bill by Justin Fox via Bloomberg
• Why Central Banks Are Shifting Goal Posts by Daniel Gross via Project Syndicate
• Cryptocurrencies: The Beginning Of The End by Brett Arends via MarketWatch
• Living In Houses They Can’t Afford by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• Investors Are Missing Their Chance To Sell by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• Time For Hot Latin Stocks To Cool Off? by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
• The Great Equity-For-Debt Swap by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

“Sometimes the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.” – Jim Cramer

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-


S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Typical September Pattern: Late-Month Breakdown

Over the last 21 years the market’s performance in September has been turbulent. DJIA recorded back-to-back losses in 2001 and 2002 of 11.1% and 12.4% respectively, but DJIA was up 7.7% in 2010. Average losses range from 0.06% by NASDAQ to a 0.69% decline by DJIA. Based upon the above chart September typically begins well and all five indexes generally trade choppily higher until around the 15th trading day of the month. From this point until the month closes, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 give back any early-month gains and drift into the red.

4th-Longest S&P 500 Streak of Days Without A 5% Drawdown Continues
Sep 8, 2017

While the S&P 500 is a bit less than 1% from all-time highs and hasn’t made a new high in a month, the current drawdown is extremely small by historical standards. In the chart below, we show streaks of days where the benchmark index has avoided a decline from all-time highs of at least 5%. Each streak starts the day the index gets back within 5% of all-time highs after declining from them. During the current bull market, there have been a number of such declines, most recently around the Brexit vote in June of last year. Since then, however, the index hasn’t moved down more than 5% from record highs. That streak of 303 trading days and counting is the 4th-longest on record, matched only by streaks ending in 1965, 1994, and 1996. It’s worth noting that long streaks without large declines don’t necessarily result in huge gains; for instance, the 1994 streak saw a 14.2% gain. The 1965 streak lasted 4 months longer than the current one but only resulted in gains slightly better than the current streak’s 23.1% move higher.



Worst Year for the Dollar Since 1986
Sep 8, 2017

Entering 2017, the USD had been up four years running on a broad trade-weighted basis with 8.6% gains in 2014, 10.7% appreciation in 2015 and a more modest 3.0% move in 2016. That last year was a less dramatic move but from May 2nd lows to the 15+ year peak on January 7th, the buck was up almost 9.3% or 14.5% at an annual pace.

Unfortunately for greenback bulls, things have gone wildly off-script since. The dollar has reversed its entire May 2016-January 2017 rally in a move that’s frankly shocked the FX world. As shown below, for the broad trade weight dollar this was the worst year on record through last Friday (latest data available) and the route has gotten worse this week with the Bloomberg USD Index (a decent proxy for the USD broad trade-weighted index) down a whopping 1.5% this week, its worst since the 5 days ending May 19th. Given that US economic data has actually held up quite well and there have been no radical policy shifts from the FOMC, that’s a pretty staggering move.



On a narrow major currency basis, the USD is just as weak. As shown below, this was the worst YTD through September 1st since 1986 (the year following the Plaza Accord agreement to devalue the USD) and the second-worst ever after this week’s decline, besting the 10% devaluation of the dollar engineered in 1973. Again, the contrast between the surging dollar post-election and the strong USD environment that prevailed for years before that event has been incredible: the dollar just won’t stop falling after it wouldn’t stop rising for years.



Will The S&P 500 Ever Correct Again?
Posted by lplresearch

Think about this: the last time the S&P 500 Index was more than 3% away from its all-time high was November 7, 2016. That means there have been 10 consecutive months without so much as a 3% correction in the S&P 500.

In mid-August we recommended Taking A Little Risk off The Table; we believe the bull market will continue and our longer-term outlook for the economy looks good. However, several near-term catalysts could trigger a bout of volatility, and being more prudent at this point in the economic cycle also makes sense. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Consider that the S&P 500 has closed higher 17 of the previous 18 months on a total return basis. Trees don’t grow forever and neither do bull markets. Things still look good, but 10 months without a 3% correction is now the second longest streak ever and is adding to our conviction in being more cautious here and now.”

While we have our concerns, as the chart below shows, most of the long streaks (5 months or more) without a 3% correction took place amid bull markets, and often, following each one the market ascended. For example, long streaks without a 3% correction took place in the mid ‘60s, early ‘80s, and mid ‘90s – all times that saw continued gains well after the initial 3% correction. This likely suggests that should the inevitable correction come, the bull market isn’t near its end; it’s more likely taking a breather.



Seasonality Favors Bonds In September
Posted by lplresearch

September has averaged a -1% return for the S&P 500 Index since 1928*—the worst performance of any month, as noted in last week’s blog. However, although September has historically been a weak period for stocks, bonds have generally climbed, with the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index gaining an average of 0.69% in September since its inception in 1976.

In recent weeks, the stock and bond market views diverged on the macro investing landscape. While stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, were back within one percent of record highs on August 29, 2017, bonds have taken a more somber view with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 2.13% on the same date, a level not seen since last November. Those differences will not be settled anytime soon; however, with stocks now entering a seasonally weak month, bonds may offer a temporary way to ride out the volatility.



Although we foresee an agreement being reached regarding the debt ceiling crisis, short-term Treasuries that mature near the end of September have shown a small increase in yields, indicating markets are pricing in at least some chance of a debate. In 2011, the newly elected Republican majority in Congress enacted a last-minute budget deal that avoided a government shutdown. That month, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S Aggregate Index returned 1.58%, while the S&P 500 returned -2.03%. For the full year of 2011, the S&P gained 2.11% on a total return basis, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate closed the year with a 7.84% total return.

Budget and debt ceiling debates will be happening over the course of the next month, but it is too early to tell if they will take on similarities to the 2011 crisis. However even if there were no potential for political disagreements, there has been a historical seasonal pattern of weakness in stocks in September, and we continue to believe that bonds can offer a diversification benefit for portfolios, even at low yields.

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 9.11.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Monday 9.11.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 9.12.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Tuesday 9.12.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.13.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 9.13.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 9.14.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Thursday 9.14.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.15.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.15.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 9.8.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.10.17 - The Calm Before the Storm
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-

 

Major Indices as of this week ending-

 

TSMFers come join us on our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (9/11-9/15) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (9/11-9/15) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/11) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join and participate with us on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Here are the most notable earnings releases calendar due out for this upcoming week ahead:
($ORCL $CBRL $PPHM $PSDV $LPTH $UNFI $AGTC $LAYN $RLGT $LMNR $IRET $FARM $LAKE $STB $STRM $TNP $ASPU $AMRK)


Oracle Corp. $51.58
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, September 14, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share on revenue of $9.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.59 to $0.61 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.21% with revenue increasing by 4.94%. The stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% above its 200 day moving average of $44.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, September 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 12,814 contracts of the $51.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.


Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $144.72
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.18 per share on revenue of $751.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.10 to $2.20 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.83% with revenue increasing by 0.79%. Short interest has decreased by 9.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $159.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 24, 2017 there was some notable buying of 526 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.


Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc. $2.88
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PPHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Monday, September 11, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $15.22 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 140.00% with revenue increasing by 171.35%. The stock has drifted lower by 40.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 63.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.76. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.6% move in recent quarters.


pSivida Ltd $1.28
pSivida Ltd (PSDV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 11, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.16 per share on revenue of $480.00 thousand. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.79% with revenue increasing by 57.89%. Short interest has increased by 430.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.9% below its 200 day moving average of $14.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.


LightPath Technologies Inc. $2.69
LightPath Technologies Inc. (LPTH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, September 14, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.04 per share on revenue of $8.75 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 100.00% with revenue increasing by 84.83%. Short interest has increased by 20.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.6% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release.


United Natural Foods, Inc. $35.61
United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, September 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.69 per share on revenue of $2.37 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.43% with revenue increasing by 7.05%. Short interest has increased by 21.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.7% below its 200 day moving average of $41.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 24, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,000 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.6% move in recent quarters.


Applied Genetic Technologies Co $4.65
Applied Genetic Technologies Co (AGTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, September 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $13.43 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.67% with revenue increasing by 10.87%. The stock has drifted lower by 19.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% below its 200 day moving average of $6.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 15.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.9% move in recent quarters.


Layne Christensen Company $11.00
Layne Christensen Company (LAYN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, September 11, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $125.00 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 14.29% with revenue decreasing by 21.41%. Short interest has increased by 4.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 27.8% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 6, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,008 contracts of the $10.00 put expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017.


Radiant Logistics Inc $5.03
Radiant Logistics Inc (RLGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $188.67 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 400.00% with revenue increasing by 2.75%. Short interest has increased by 266.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% below its 200 day moving average of $5.33. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Limoneira Company $22.81
Limoneira Company (LMNR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, September 11, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $40.60 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 25.35% with revenue increasing by 1.75%. Short interest has increased by 31.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release.

 

So, what are we all thinking here as far as market action for this upcoming week ahead? This will be our first full trading week in September. Anything in particular that you guys are keeping a close eye on?

Rumors have it that NK may want to fire off another missile over this weekend (markets usually tend to shrug these off though?). Additionally we have major Cat 5 hurricane (Irma) which is expected to make landfall around Florida later today. For those of you in Florida, please stay safe!

According to Stock Trader's Almanac the 2nd half of September has typically been the weakest half to any month of the year.



Let's hear what you guys are watching. Hope you all have a very nice and relaxing weekend!

 

oh man! i haven't checked up on the markets much today ... but looks like 2,480.91 was the last record close on the spx from aug. 7th (which we're well above right now). the "intraday" ATH however is up at 2,490.87 on aug. 8th which we've yet to take out today but got really close.

 

Longest Rally Since…
Sep 11, 2017

Back in late July we published a Chart of the Day looking at the current rally and how it ranks in terms of length without a significant pullback of any kind. With the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high today, it has now been 3,108 calendar days since the last 20% decline (the standard bull/bear market distinction). As shown in the table below of the longest bull markets on record, the current bull is the second longest behind the 4,494 days that passed between December 1987 and March 2000 without a 20%+ pullback.

Today’s close was also a big deal in terms of gains for the current bull market. As shown, the S&P’s gain of 267.61% makes this the second strongest bull market on record as well.



It has also been a long time since the S&P 500 had a 10% correction. As shown, the current streak of 578 days since the last 10%+ correction is the 11th longest on record going back to 1928.



Not only have we not had a 10% correction in more than 18 months, but we also haven’t even had a 5%+ correction since last June. The 441-day streak without a 5%+ correction is the sixth longest on record for the S&P 500.



And finally, it has now been 311 days since the S&P 500 last experienced just a 3% pullback. As shown below, this is the 2nd longest streak of all-time without a 3%+ pullback.

To break this record, we’ll need to go another 59 days without declining 3% from today’s close.